Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Using mixed-methods to examine teachers’ attitudes to educational change:The case of the Skills for Life strategy for improving adult literacy and numeracy skills in England.

This paper reports on a longitudinal study that examines how a national reform introduced in England in the field of adult literacy, language, and numeracy is affecting teachers. The paper focuses on the use of a mixed methodology to explore teachers' attitudes to the reform and how these change over time. The quantitative strand includes the construction and use of a Likert-type instrument for measuring the attitudes of a panel of 1,500 teachers. The qualitative strand builds on the quantitative results and includes focus groups and in-depth interviews with a subsample of teachers in the panel. As the study is still in its initial phase, the purpose is not to present findings, but to discuss how quantitative and qualitative evidence can be combined in evaluation research.

Validity of the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) in assessing levels and change in moderate-vigorous physical activity and sedentary behaviour

Background

Feasible, cost-effective instruments are required for the surveillance of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) and to assess the effects of interventions. However, the evidence base for the validity and reliability of the World Health Organisation-endorsed Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) is limited. We aimed to assess the validity of the GPAQ, compared to accelerometer data in measuring and assessing change in MVPA and SB.

Participants (n = 101) were selected randomly from an on-going research study, stratified by level of physical activity (low, moderate or highly active, based on the GPAQ) and sex. Participants wore an accelerometer (Actigraph GT3X) for seven days and completed a GPAQ on Day 7. This protocol was repeated for a random sub-sample at a second time point, 3–6 months later. Analysis involved Wilcoxon-signed rank tests for differences in measures, Bland-Altman analysis for the agreement between measures for median MVPA and SB mins/day, and Spearman’s rho coefficient for criterion validity and extent of change.

95 participants completed baseline measurements (44 females, 51 males; mean age 44 years, (SD 14); measurements of change were calculated for 41 (21 females, 20 males; mean age 46 years, (SD 14). There was moderate agreement between GPAQ and accelerometer for MVPA mins/day (r = 0.48) and poor agreement for SB (r = 0.19). The absolute mean difference (self-report minus accelerometer) for MVPA was −0.8 mins/day and 348.7 mins/day for SB; and negative bias was found to exist, with those people who were more physically active over-reporting their level of MVPA: those who were more sedentary were less likely to under-report their level of SB. Results for agreement in change over time showed moderate correlation (r = 0.52, p = 0.12) for MVPA and poor correlation for SB (r = −0.024, p = 0.916).

Levels of agreement with objective measurements indicate the GPAQ is a valid measure of MVPA and change in MVPA but is a less valid measure of current levels and change in SB. Thus, GPAQ appears to be an appropriate measure for assessing the effectiveness of interventions to promote MVPA.

The pervasiveness and trajectory of methodological choices: A 20 year review of human resource management research

This paper examines the methodological choices of researchers studying the HR practices–outcome relationship via a content analysis of 281 studies published across the last twenty years. The prevalence and trajectory of change over time are reported for a wide range of methodological choices relevant to internal, external, construct, and statistical conclusion validity. While the results indicate a high incidence of potentially problematic cross-sectional, single informant, and single level designs, they also reveal significant improvements over time across many validity relevant methodological choices. This broad based improvement in the methodological underpinnings of HR research suggests that researchers and practitioners can view the findings reported in the HR literature with increasing confidence. Directions for future research are provided.

Breaking the boundaries: Geographical approaches to integrating 200 years of the Census

The census and similar sources of data have been published for two centuries so the information that they contain should provide an unparalleled insight into the changing population of Britain over this time period. To date, however, the seemingly trivial problem of changes in boundaries has seriously hampered the use of these sources as they make it impossible to create long run time series of spatially detailed data. The paper reviews methodologies that attempt to resolve this problem by using geographical information systems and areal inter-polation to allow the reallocation of data from one set of administrative units onto another. This makes it possible to examine change over time for a standard geography and thus it becomes possible to unlock the spatial detail and the temporal depth that are held in the census and in related sources.

Error sensitive historical GIS: Identifying areal interpolation errors in time series data

Historical GIS has the potential to re-invigorate our use of statistics from historical censuses and related sources. In particular, areal interpolation can be used to create long-run time-series of spatially detailed data that will enable us to enhance significantly our understanding of geographical change over periods of a century or more. The difficulty with areal interpolation, however, is that the data that it generates are estimates which will inevitably contain some error. This paper describes a technique that allows the automated identification of possible errors at the level of the individual data values.

Trends in the prevalence of cerebral palsy in Northern Ireland, 1981-1997

We describe trends in the prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP) by birth weight group, and in the severity of motor impairments and presence of associated intellectual impairment, in Northern Ireland from 1981 to 1997 (n=909; 510 males, 399 females; total population 415 936 live births) using data from a population-based register of CP. Children with suspected CP or who died before 1 year of age and those with CP of postneonatal origin were excluded. Prevalence of CP was 2.2 per 1000 live births without significant change over time. Among very-low-birthweight (<1500g) live births, prevalence was 44.5 per 1000 (95% confidence interval 32.3–59.8) from 1994 to 1997, with evidence of a statistically significant decline in prevalence since the mid- to late 1980s accompanied by a decrease in the severity of motor impairment and likelihood of intellectual impairment. Among moderately-low-birthweight (1500–2499g) children there was weaker evidence of a peak prevalence in the late 1980s. Prevalence among normal-birthweight infants did not change significantly, but outcome in terms of severity of motor impairment and intellectual impairment improved in the 1990s. Occurrence of bilateral spasticity from 1994 to 1997 was associated with greater severity and likelihood of intellectual impairment for normal-birthweight individuals than for low- or very-low-birth weight individuals.

Learning soft computing control strategies in a modular neural network architecture

Modelling and control of nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging problem since the dynamics of such systems change over their parameter space. Conventional methodologies for designing nonlinear control laws, such as gain scheduling, are effective because the designer partitions the overall complex control into a number of simpler sub-tasks. This paper describes a new genetic algorithm based method for the design of a modular neural network (MNN) control architecture that learns such partitions of an overall complex control task. Here a chromosome represents both the structure and parameters of an individual neural network in the MNN controller and a hierarchical fuzzy approach is used to select the chromosomes required to accomplish a given control task. This new strategy is applied to the end-point tracking of a single-link flexible manipulator modelled from experimental data. Results show that the MNN controller is simple to design and produces superior performance compared to a single neural network (SNN) controller which is theoretically capable of achieving the desired trajectory. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

'Leaving Nothing to Chance'?: Joint Tenancies, The 'Right' of Survivorship and Unilateral Severance

The joint tenancy with its inherent right of survivorship is the most prevalent form of co-ownership in the common law world today. Most couples will be joint tenants of a family home, while relations (such as siblings) who purchase property together may opt for this arrangement. Inter vivos acquisitions aside, the huge intergenerational transfer of wealth within families on death can result in a joint tenancy, and it may also be a convenient estate planning device. The fact that property automatically vests in the surviving joint tenants on death is the reason why many people choose this form of co-ownership. However, there is one serious disadvantage. A joint tenancy is an inflexible form of landholding where relationships sour or family circumstances change over time, and co-owners want their respective `shares' of the property to pass to someone else on death. Where consensual severance is not possible, one joint tenant can sever unilaterally. The latter mechanism is vital in terms of giving effect to the wishes of the severing joint tenant, especially in situations of discord or a breakdown in relations with their fellow co-owners. However, unilateral severance also has serious implications for the non-severing joint tenant(s) who expected to inherit property through survivorship, and can impact significantly on ownership of the home and other family property. This article looks at unilateral severance as a means of subverting the right of survivorship. The focus is on personal and inter-family relationships, and the various legal issues and policy considerations associated with unilateral severance across the common law jurisdictions of Britain, Ireland, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. It assesses the various methods of effecting unilateral severance and proposes specific measures, as well as considering novel arguments for preventing unilateral severance based on contractual agreements to the contrary and proprietary estoppel.

The impact of equity markets and corporate governance on labour market flexibility

Drawing from various literatures, this article explores links between equity markets and labour market flexibility. Various data sources are used to test relationships for a set of OECD countries, controlling for other likely influences on flexibility such as government and industrial relations institutions. The results are generally supportive as regards employment flexibility: equity market trading activity is associated with shorter job tenure, higher activity rates, and greater employment change over the cycle. However, the relationship between equity markets and pay flexibility is less statistically robust to the addition of controls.

Peat multi-proxy data from Mannikjarve bog as indicators of late Holocene climate changes in Estonia

As part of a wider project on European climate change over the past 4500 years, a 4.5-m peat core was taken from a lawn microform on Mannikjarve bog, Estonia. Several methods were used to yield proxy-climate data: (i) a quadrat and leaf-count method for plant macrofossil data, (ii) testate amoebae analysis, and (iii) colorimetric determination of peat humification. These data are provided with an exceptionally high resolution and precise chronology. Changes in bog surface wetness were inferred using Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and zonation of macrofossil data, particularly concerning the occurrence of Sphagnum balticum, and a transfer function for water-table depth for testate amoebae data. Based on the results, periods of high bog surface wetness appear to have occurred at c. 3100, 3010-2990, 2300, 1750-1610, 1510, 14 10, 1110, 540 and 3 10 cal. yr BP, during four longer periods between c. 3170 and 2850 cal. yr BP, 2450 and 2000 cal. yr BP, 1770 and 1530 cal. yr BP and in the period from 880 cal. yr BP until the present. In the period between 1770 and 1530 cal. yr BP. the extension or initiation of a hollow microtope occurred, which corresponds with other research results from Mannikjarve bog. This and other changes towards increasing bog surface wetness may be the responses to colder temperatures and the predominance of a more continental climate in the region, which favoured the development of bog microdepressions and a complex bog microtopography. Located in the border zone of oceanic and continental climatic sectors, in an area almost without land uplift, this study site may provide valuable information about changes in palaeohydrological and palaeoclimatological conditions in the northern parts of the eastern Baltic Sea region.

Validity of a 1 minute walk test for children with cerebral palsy.

The concurrent validity of a 1 minute walk test at a child's maximum walking speed was assessed in children with bilateral spastic cerebral palsy (BSCP). The distance covered during the 1 minute walk test was compared with the children's gross motor function as assessed by the Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM). Twenty-four male and 10 female children with CP (mean age 11y, range 4 to 16y) participated in the study. Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels were; level I (n=3), level II (n=17), level III (n=10), and level IV (n=4). Participants had clinical diagnoses of symmetrical diplegia (n=19), asymmetrical diplegia (n=14), and quadriplegia (n=1). Results showed a significant correlation between GMFM score and the distance covered during the 1 minute walk (r=0.92; p<0.001). There was also a significant decrease in the distance walked with increasing GMFCS level (p<0.001). We concluded that the 1 minute walk test is a valid measure for assessing functional ability in children with ambulatory BSCP. Its cost-effectiveness and user friendliness make it a potentially useful tool in the clinical setting. Further study needs to address its reliability and ability to detect change over time.

Children’s Reasoning About the Temporal Order of Past and Future Events

Four- and five-year-olds completed two sets of tasks that involved reasoning about the temporal order in which events had occurred in the past or were to occur in the future. Four-year-olds succeeded on the tasks that involved reasoning about the order of past events but not those that involved reasoning about the order of future events, whereas 5-year-olds passed both types of tasks. Individual children who failed the past-event tasks were not particularly likely to fail the more difficult future-event tasks. However, children's performance on the reasoning tasks was predictive of their performance on a task assessing their comprehension of the terms “before” and “after.” Our results suggest that there may be a developmental change over this age range in the ability to flexibly represent and reason about the before-and-after relationships between events.

Evaluating periocidities in peat-based climate proxy records.

Proxy records derived from ombrotrophic peatlands provide important insights into climate change over decadal to millennial timescales. We present mid- to late- Holocene humification data and testate amoebae-derived water table records from two peatlands in Northern Ireland. We examine the repli- cation of periodicities in these proxy climate records, which have been precisely linked through teph- rochronology. Age-depth models are constructed using a Bayesian piece-wise linear accumulation model and chronological errors are calculated for each profile. A Lomb-Scargle Fourier transform-based spectral analysis is used to test for statistically significant periodicities in the data. Periodicities of c. 130, 180, 260, 540 and 1160 years are present in at least one proxy record at each site. The replication of these peri- odicities provides persuasive evidence that they are a product of allogenic climate controls, rather than internal peatland dynamics. A technique to estimate the possible level of red-noise in the data is applied and demonstrates that the observed periodicities cannot be explained by a first-order autoregressive model. We review the periodicities in the light of those reported previously from other marine and terrestrial climate proxy archives to consider climate forcing parameters. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.