120 resultados para 010406 Stochastic Analysis and Modelling

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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We here analyse the observational SO and CS data presented in Nilsson ct al. (2000). The SO/CS integrated intensity ratio maps are presented for 19 molecular clouds, together with tables of relevant ratios at strategic positions, where we have also observed (SO)-S-34 and/or (CS)-S-34. The SO/CS abundance ratio as calculated from an LTE analysis is highly varying within and between the sources. Our isotopomer observations and Monte Carlo simulations verify that this is not an artifact due to optical depth problems. The variation of the maximum SO/CS abundance ratio between the clouds is 0.2-7. The largest variations within a cloud are found for the most nearby objects, possibly indicating resolution effects. We have also performed time dependent chemical simulations. We compare the simulations with our observed SO/CS abundance ratios and suggest a varying oxygen to carbon initial abundance, differing temporal evolution, density differences and X-ray sources associated with young stellar objects as possible explanations to the variations. In particular, the observed variation of the maximum SO/CS abundance ratio between the clouds can be explained by using initial O/C+ abundance ratios in the range 1.3-2.5. We finally derive a relationship between the SO/CS and O-2/CO abundance ratios, which may be used as a guide to find the most promising interstellar O-2 search targets.

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This study investigates the effects of ground heterogeneity, considering permeability as a random variable, on an intruding SW wedge using Monte Carlo simulations. Random permeability fields were generated, using the method of Local Average Subdivision (LAS), based on a lognormal probability density function. The LAS method allows the creation of spatially correlated random fields, generated using coefficients of variation (COV) and horizontal and vertical scales of fluctuation (SOF). The numerical modelling code SUTRA was employed to solve the coupled flow and transport problem. The well-defined 2D dispersive Henry problem was used as the test case for the method. The intruding SW wedge is defined by two key parameters, the toe penetration length (TL) and the width of mixing zone (WMZ). These parameters were compared to the results of a homogeneous case simulated using effective permeability values. The simulation results revealed: (1) an increase in COV resulted in a seaward movement of TL; (2) the WMZ extended with increasing COV; (3) a general increase in horizontal and vertical SOF produced a seaward movement of TL, with the WMZ increasing slightly; (4) as the anisotropic ratio increased the TL intruded further inland and the WMZ reduced in size. The results show that for large values of COV, effective permeability parameters are inadequate at reproducing the effects of heterogeneity on SW intrusion.

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This paper investigated the problem of confined flow under dams and water retaining structuresusing stochastic modelling. The approach advocated in the study combined a finite elementsmethod based on the equation governing the dynamics of incompressible fluid flow through aporous medium with a random field generator that generates random hydraulic conductivity basedon lognormal probability distribution. The resulting model was then used to analyse confined flowunder a hydraulic structure. Cases for a structure provided with cutoff wall and when the wall didnot exist were both tested. Various statistical parameters that reflected different degrees ofheterogeneity were examined and the changes in the mean seepage flow, the mean uplift forceand the mean exit gradient observed under the structure were analysed. Results reveal that underheterogeneous conditions, the reduction made by the sheetpile in the uplift force and exit hydraulicgradient may be underestimated when deterministic solutions are used.

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This research investigated the unconfined flow through dams. The hydraulic conductivity was modeled as spatially random field following lognormal distribution. Results showed that the seepage flow produced from the stochastic solution was smaller than its deterministic value. In addition, the free surface was observed to exit at a point lower than that obtained from the deterministic solution. When the hydraulic conductivity was strongly correlated in the horizontal direction than the vertical direction, the flow through the dam has markedly increased. It is suggested that it may not be necessary to construct a core in dams made from soils that exhibit high degree of variability.

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Continuous large-scale changes in technology and the globalization of markets have resulted in the need for many SMEs to use innovation as a means of seeking competitive advantage where innovation includes both technological and organizational perspectives (Tapscott, 2009). However, there is a paucity of systematic and empirical research relating to the implementation of innovation management in the context of SMEs. The aim of this article is to redress this imbalance via an empirical study created to develop and test a model of innovation implementation in SMEs. This study uses Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to test the plausibility of an innovation model, developed from earlier studies, as the basis of a questionnaire survey of 395 SMEs in the UK. The resultant model and construct relationship results are further probed using an explanatory multiple case analysis to explore ‘how’ and ‘why’ type questions within the model and construct relationships. The findings show that the
effects of leadership, people and culture on innovation implementation are mediated by business improvement activities relating to Total Quality Management/Continuous Improvement (TQM/CI) and product and process developments. It is concluded that SMEs have an opportunity to leverage existing quality and process improvement activities to move beyond continuous
improvement outcomes towards effective innovation implementation. The article concludes by suggesting areas suitable for further research.

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DNA telomeric repeats in mammalian cells are transcribed to guanine-rich RNA sequences, which adopt parallel-stranded G-quadruplexes with a propeller-like fold. The successful crystallization and structure analysis of a bimolecular human telomeric RNA G-quadruplex, folded into the same crystalline environment as an equivalent DNA oligonucleotide sequence, is reported here. The structural basis of the increased stability of RNA telomeric quadruplexes over DNA ones and their preference for parallel topologies is described here. Our findings suggest that the 2'-OH hydroxyl groups in the RNA quadruplex play a significant role in redefining hydration structure in the grooves and the hydrogen bonding networks. The preference for specific nucleotides to populate the C3'-endo sugar pucker domain is accommodated by alterations in the phosphate backbone, which leads to greater stability through enhanced hydrogen bonding networks. Molecular dynamics simulations on the DNA and RNA quadruplexes are consistent with these findings. The computations, based on the native crystal structure, provide an explanation for RNA G-quadruplex ligand binding selectivity for a group of naphthalene diimide ligands as compared to the DNA G-quadruplex.

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Given the growing interest in thermal processing methods, this study describes the use of an advanced rheological technique, capillary rheometry, to accurately determine the thermorheological properties of two pharmaceutical polymers, Eudragit E100 (E100) and hydroxypropylcellulose JF (HPC) and their blends, both in the presence and absence of a model therapeutic agent (quinine, as the base and hydrochloride salt). Furthermore, the glass transition temperatures (Tg) of the cooled extrudates produced using capillary rheometry were characterised using Dynamic Mechanical Thermal Analysis (DMTA) thereby enabling correlations to be drawn between the information derived from capillary rheometry and the glass transition properties of the extrudates. The shear viscosities of E100 and HPC (and their blends) decreased as functions of increasing temperature and shear rates, with the shear viscosity of E100 being significantly greater than that of HPC at all temperatures and shear rates. All platforms were readily processed at shear rates relevant to extrusion (approximately 200–300 s−1) and injection moulding (approximately 900 s−1). Quinine base was observed to lower the shear viscosities of E100 and E100/HPC blends during processing and the Tg of extrudates, indicative of plasticisation at processing temperatures and when cooled (i.e. in the solid state). Quinine hydrochloride (20% w/w) increased the shear viscosities of E100 and HPC and their blends during processing and did not affect the Tg of the parent polymer. However, the shear viscosities of these systems were not prohibitive to processing at shear rates relevant to extrusion and injection moulding. As the ratio of E100:HPC increased within the polymer blends the effects of quinine base on the lowering of both shear viscosity and Tg of the polymer blends increased, reflecting the greater solubility of quinine within E100. In conclusion, this study has highlighted the importance of capillary rheometry in identifying processing conditions, polymer miscibility and plasticisation phenomena.

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We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy as well as modelling of the lightcurves of the Type IIb supernova (SN) 2011dh. Our extensive dataset, for which we present the observations obtained after day 100, spans two years, and complemented with Spitzer mid-infrared (MIR) data, we use it to build an optical-to-MIR bolometric lightcurve between days 3 and 732. To model the bolometric lightcurve before day 400 we use a grid of hydrodynamical SN models, which allows us to determine the errors in the derived quantities, and a bolometric correction determined with steady-state non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) modelling. Using this method we find a helium core mass of 3.1<sup>+0.7</sup><inf>-0.4</inf> M<inf>⊙</inf> for SN 2011dh, consistent within error bars with previous results obtained using the bolometric lightcurve before day 80. We compute bolometric and broad-band lightcurves between days 100 and 500 from spectral steady-state NLTE models, presented and discussed in a companion paper. The preferred 12 M<inf>⊙</inf> (initial mass) model, previously found to agree well with the observed spectra, shows a good overall agreement with the observed lightcurves, although some discrepancies exist. Time-dependent NLTE modelling shows that after day ∼600 a steady-state assumption is no longer valid. The radioactive energy deposition in this phase is likely dominated by the positrons emitted in the decay of <sup>56</sup>Co, but seems insufficient to reproduce the lightcurves, and what energy source is dominating the emitted flux is unclear. We find an excess in the K and the MIR bands developing between days 100 and 250, during which an increase in the optical decline rate is also observed. A local origin of the excess is suggested by the depth of the He I 20 581 Å absorption. Steady-state NLTE models with a modest dust opacity in the core (τ = 0.44), turned on during this period, reproduce the observed behaviour, but an additional excess in the Spitzer 4.5 μm band remains. Carbon-monoxide (CO) first-overtone band emission is detected at day 206, and possibly at day 89, and assuming the additional excess to bedominated by CO fundamental band emission, we find fundamental to first-overtone band ratios considerably higher than observed in SN 1987A. The profiles of the [O i] 6300 Å and Mg i] 4571 Å lines show a remarkable similarity, suggesting that these lines originate from a common nuclear burning zone (O/Ne/Mg), and using small scale fluctuations in the line profiles we estimate a filling factor of ≲ 0.07 for the emitting material. This paper concludes our extensive observational and modelling work on SN 2011dh. The results from hydrodynamical modelling, steady-state NLTE modelling, and stellar evolutionary progenitor analysis are all consistent, and suggest an initial mass of ∼12 M<inf>⊙</inf> for the progenitor.

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The paper Bereavement: A behavioural process (Dillenburger & Keenan, 1994) was first published within a vacuum of behaviour analytic thinking or research in this field. The paper was meant to be a first step in stimulating others to contribute to the understanding of one of the most complex, yet most universal, human behavioural processes. The only behaviour analyst addressing the issues directly was Calkin (1990). Recently, after reading our original 1994 paper, Beth Sulzer-Azaroff suggested that we should solicit comments directly from the behaviour analytic community. This we did with the help of Erik Arntzen and now the reprint and the commentaries in this edition of the European Journal of Behaviour Analysis (EJBA) fully embrace and extend the contribution of behaviour analysis to the understanding of the behavioural process that is bereavement.

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This work combines microscopy, synchrotron radiation X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry and thermodynamic calculations in the characterisation of phase transformation behaviour of a Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy upon continuous heating at constant rates. It has been found that the Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy after being forged at 1200 °C without further treatment has a duplex microstructure consisting of fine equiaxed and lamellar ? grains with a small amount of a2 plates and particles and about 1 wt.% B2 phase. Differential scanning calorimetry revealed reproducibly several thermal effects upon heating of the as-forged alloy. These thermal effects are related to the equilibration and homogenisation of the sample, change of phase ratios between a2, ? and B2 phases in particular the increase of B2 in respect to a2 and ?, and the following five phase transformations: a2 + ? + B2 a + ? + B2, a + ? + B2 a + ?, ? + a a, a a + ß, a + ß a + ß + L. The observation of these transformations by differential scanning calorimetry is largely in agreement with literature phase diagrams and thermodynamic calculations, though care is needed to consider the different alloy compositions. Kinetics of the ? + a a phase transformation in the Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy has been quantitatively derived from the calorimetry data, giving phase compositions at any point during the transformation upon continuous heating.