A methodology to analyse the impact of offshore wind forecasting error on electricity markets

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms in the British Isles, but both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have high renewable energy targets, expected to come mostly from wind power. However, as the demand for wind power grows to ensure security of energy supply, as a potentially cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets offshore wind power will grow rapidly as the availability of suitable onshore sites decrease. However, wind is variable and stochastic by nature and thus difficult to schedule. In order to plan for these uncertainties market operators use wind forecasting tools, reserve plant and ancillary service agreements. Onshore wind power forecasting techniques have improved dramatically and continue to advance, but offshore wind power forecasting is more difficult due to limited datasets and knowledge. So as the amount of offshore wind power increases in the British Isles robust forecasting and planning techniques are even more critical. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of better offshore wind forecasting on the operation and management of the single wholesale electricity market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using PLEXOS for Power Systems. © 2013 IEEE.

GRADIENT CORRECTIONS IN DENSITY-FUNCTIONAL THEORY CALCULATIONS FOR SURFACES - CO ON PD(110)

Ab initio total energy calculations have been performed for CO chemisorption on Pd(110). Local density approximation (LDA) calculations yield chemisorption energies which are significantly higher than experimental values but inclusion of the generalised gradient approximation (GGA) gives better agreement. In general, sites with higher coordination of the adsorbate to surface atoms lead to a larger degree of overbinding with LDA, and give larger corrections with GGA. The reason is discussed using a first-order perturbation approximation. It is concluded that this may be a general failure of LDA for chemisorption energy calculations. This conclusion may be extended to many surface calculations, such as potential energy surfaces for diffusion.

Performance and Fault Tolerance of Preconditioned Iterative Solvers on Low-Power ARM Architectures

As the complexity of computing systems grows, reliability and energy are two crucial challenges asking for holistic solutions. In this paper, we investigate the interplay among concurrency, power dissipation, energy consumption and voltage-frequency scaling for a key numerical kernel for the solution of sparse linear systems. Concretely, we leverage a task-parallel implementation of the Conjugate Gradient method, equipped with an state-of-the-art pre-conditioner embedded in the ILUPACK software, and target a low-power multi core processor from ARM.In addition, we perform a theoretical analysis on the impact of a technique like Near Threshold Voltage Computing (NTVC) from the points of view of increased hardware concurrency and error rate.

New results on stability analysis of delayed recurrent neural networks based on the integral quadratic constraints approach

This paper is concerned with the analysis of the stability of delayed recurrent neural networks. In contrast to the widely used Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional approach, a new method is developed within the integral quadratic constraints framework. To achieve this, several lemmas are first given to propose integral quadratic separators to characterize the original delayed neural network. With these, the network is then reformulated as a special form of feedback-interconnected system by choosing proper integral quadratic constraints. Finally, new stability criteria are established based on the proposed approach. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the new approach.

Co-tape casting fabrication, field assistant sintering and evaluation of a coke resistant La0.2Sr0.7TiO3-Ni/YSZ functional gradient anode supported solid oxide fuel cell

The ability to directly utilize hydrocarbons and other renewable liquid fuels is one of the most important issues affecting the large scale deployment of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). Herein we designed La_0.2Sr_0.7TiO₃-Ni/YSZ functional gradient anode (FGA) supported SOFCs, prepared with a co-tape casting method and sintered using the field assisted sintering technique (FAST). Through SEM observations, it was confirmed that the FGA structure was achieved and well maintained after the FAST process. Distortion and delamination which usually results after conventional sintering was successfully avoided. The La_0.2Sr_0.7TiO₃-Ni/YSZ FGA supported SOFCs showed a maximum power density of 600mWcm^-2 at 750°C, and was stable for 70h in CH₄. No carbon deposition was detected using Raman spectroscopy. These results confirm the potential coke resistance of La_0.2Sr_0.7TiO₃-Ni/YSZ FGA supported SOFCs.

A new battery modelling method based on simulation error minimization

A new battery modelling method is presented based on the simulation error minimization criterion rather than the conventional prediction error criterion. A new integrated optimization method to optimize the model parameters is proposed. This new method is validated on a set of Li ion battery test data, and the results confirm the advantages of the proposed method in terms of the model generalization performance and long-term prediction accuracy.

Changes in epilithic biomasses and invertebrate community structure over a deposit metal concentration gradient in upland headwater streams

Stream bed metal deposits affect the taxon richness, density and taxonomic diversity of primary and secondary producers by a variety of direct or indirect abiotic and biotic processes but little is known about the relative importance of these processes over a deposit metal concentration gradient. Inorganic matter (IM), algal and non-photosynthetic detrital (NPD) dry biomasses were estimated for 10 monthly samples, between 2007 and 2008, from eight sites differing in deposit density. Invertebrate abundance, taxon richness and composition were also determined. Relations between these variables were investigated by canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), generalized estimating equation models and path analysis. The first CCA axis correlates with deposit density and invertebrate abundance, with lumbriculids and chironomids increasing in abundance with deposit density and all other taxa declining. Community structure changes significantly above a deposit density of approximately 8 mg cm, when algal biomass, invertebrate richness and diversity decline. Invertebrate richness and diversity were determined by direct effects of NPD biomass and indirect effects of IM. Algal biomass only had an effect on invertebrate abundance. Possible pH, oxygen, food and ecotoxicological effects of NPD biomass on the biota are discussed.

Mitigating the Impact of Faults in Unreliable Memories for Error-Resilient Applications

Inherently error-resilient applications in areas such as signal processing, machine learning and data analytics provide opportunities for relaxing reliability requirements, and thereby reducing the overhead incurred by conventional error correction schemes. In this paper, we exploit the tolerable imprecision of such applications by designing an energy-efficient fault-mitigation scheme for unreliable data memories to meet target yield. The proposed approach uses a bit-shuffling mechanism to isolate faults into bit locations with lower significance. This skews the bit-error distribution towards the low order bits, substantially limiting the output error magnitude. By controlling the granularity of the shuffling, the proposed technique enables trading-off quality for power, area, and timing overhead. Compared to error-correction codes, this can reduce the overhead by as much as 83% in read power, 77% in read access time, and 89% in area, when applied to various data mining applications in 28nm process technology.

Carbon and nitrogen uptake of calcareous benthic foraminifera along a depth-related oxygen gradient in the OMZ of the Arabian Sea

Foraminifera are an important faunal element of the benthos in oxygen-depleted settings such as Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs) where they can play a relevant role in the processing of phytodetritus. We investigated the uptake of phytodetritus (labeled with 13C and 15N) by cal-careous foraminifera in the 0-1 cm sediment horizon under different oxygen concentrations within the OMZ in the eastern Arabian Sea. The in situ tracer experiments were carried out along a depth transect on the Indian margin over a period of 4 to 10 days. The uptake of phy-todetrital carbon within 4 days by all investigated species shows that phytodetritus is a rele-vant food source for foraminifera in OMZ sediments. The decrease of total carbon uptake from 540 to 1100 m suggests a higher demand for carbon by species in the low-oxygen core region of the OMZ or less food competition with macrofauna. Especially Uvigerinids showed high uptake of phytodetrital carbon at the lowest oxygenated site. Variation in the ratio of phytodetrital carbon to nitrogen between species and sites indicates that foraminiferal carbon and nitrogen use can be decoupled and different nutritional demands are found between spe-cies. Lower ratio of phytodetrital carbon and nitrogen at 540 m could hint for greater demand or storage of food-based nitrogen, ingestion or hosting of bacteria under almost anoxic condi-tions. Shifts in the foraminiferal assemblage structure (controlled by oxygen or food availabil-ity) and in the presence of other benthic organisms account for observed changes in the pro-cessing of phytodetritus in the different OMZ habitats. Foraminifera dominate the short-term processing of phytodetritus in the OMZ core but are less important in the lower OMZ bounda-ry region of the Indian margin as biological interactions and species distribution of foraminifera change with depth and oxygen levels.

Two-year changes in refractive error and related biometric factors in an adult Chinese population

Importance: This article provides, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal population-based data on refractive error (RE) in Chinese persons.

Objective: To study cohort effects and changes associated with aging in REs among Chinese adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants: A 2-year, longitudinal population-based cohort study was conducted in southern China. Participants, identified using cluster random sampling, included residents of Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, China, aged 35 years or older who had undergone no previous eye surgery.

Methods: Participants underwent noncycloplegic automated refraction and keratometry in December 2008 and December 2010; in a random 50% sample of the participants, anterior segment ocular coherence tomography measurement of lens thickness, as well as measurement of axial length and anterior chamber depth by partial coherence laser interferometry, were performed.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Two-year change in spherical equivalent refraction (RE), lens thickness, axial length, and anterior chamber depth in the right eye.

Results: A total of 745 individuals underwent biometric testing in both 2008 and 2010 (2008 mean [SD] age, 52.2 [11.5] years; 53.7% women). Mean RE showed a 2-year hyperopic shift from −0.44 (2.21) to −0.31 (2.26) diopters (D) (difference, +0.13; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.16). A consistent 2-year hyperopic shift of 0.09 to 0.22 D was observed among participants aged 35 to 64 years when stratifying by decade, suggesting that a substantial change in RE with aging may occur during this 30-year period. Cross-sectionally, RE increased only in the cohort younger than 50 years (0.11 D/y; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.16). In the cross-sectional data, axial length decreased at −0.06 mm/y (95% CI, −0.09 to −0.04), although the 2-year change in axial length was positive and thus could not explain the cross-sectional difference. These latter results suggest a cohort effect, with greater myopia developing among younger persons.

Conclusions and Relevance: This first Chinese population-based longitudinal study of RE provides evidence for both important longitudinal aging changes and cohort effects, most notably greater myopia prevalence among younger persons.

Age, gender, biometry, refractive error, and the anterior chamber angle among Alaskan Eskimos.

BACKGROUND:

The prevalence of angle-closure glaucoma (ACG) is greater for Eskimos/Inuit than it is for any other ethnic group in the world. Although it has been suggested that this prevalence may be due to a population tendency toward shallower anterior chamber angles, available evidence for other populations such as Chinese with high rates of ACG has not consistently demonstrated such a tendency.

METHODS:

A reticule, slit-lamp, and standard Goldmann one-mirror goniolens were used to make measurements in the anterior chamber (AC) angle according to a previously reported protocol for biometric gonioscopy (BG) (Ophthalmology 1999;106:2161-7). Measurements were made in all four quadrants of one eye among 133 phakic Alaskan Eskimos aged 40 years and older. Automatic refraction, dilated examination of the anterior segment and optic nerve, and A-scan measurements of AC depth, lens thickness, and axial length were also carried out for all subjects.

RESULTS:

Both central and peripheral AC measurements for the Eskimo subjects were significantly lower than those previously reported by us for Chinese, blacks, and whites under the identical protocol. Eskimos also seemed to have somewhat more hyperopia. There were no differences in biometric measurements between men and women in this Eskimo population. Angle measurements by BG seemed to decline more rapidly over life among Eskimos and Chinese than blacks or whites. Although there was a significant apparent decrease in AC depth, increase in lens thickness, and increase in hyperopia with age among Eskimos, all of these trends seemed to reverse in the seventh decade and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS:

Eskimos do seem to have shallower ACs than do other racial groups. Measurements of the AC angle seem to decline more rapidly over life among Eskimos than among blacks or whites, a phenomenon also observed by us among Chinese, another group with high ACG prevalence. This apparent more rapid decline may be due to a cohort effect with higher prevalence of myopia and resulting wider angles among younger Eskimos and Chinese.

Heritability of refractive error and familial aggregation of myopia in an elderly American population.

PURPOSE: To determine the heritability of refractive error and the familial aggregation of myopia in an older population. METHODS: Seven hundred fifty-nine siblings (mean age, 73.4 years) in 241 families were recruited from the Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) Study in eastern Maryland. Refractive error was determined by noncycloplegic subjective refraction (if presenting distance visual acuity was < or =20/40) or lensometry (if best corrected visual acuity was >20/40 with spectacles). Participants were considered plano (refractive error of zero) if uncorrected visual acuity was >20/40. Preoperative refraction from medical records was used for pseudophakic subjects. Heritability of refractive error was calculated with multivariate linear regression and was estimated as twice the residual between-sibling correlation after adjusting for age, gender, and race. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of myopia, given a myopic sibling relative to having a nonmyopic sibling. RESULTS: The estimated heritability of refractive error was 61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 34%-88%) in this population. The age-, race-, and sex-adjusted ORs of myopia were 2.65 (95% CI: 1.67-4.19), 2.25 (95% CI: 1.31-3.87), 3.00 (95% CI: 1.56-5.79), and 2.98 (95% CI: 1.51-5.87) for myopia thresholds of -0.50, -1.00, -1.50, and -2.00 D, respectively. Neither race nor gender was significantly associated with an increased risk of myopia. CONCLUSIONS: Refractive error and myopia are highly heritable in this elderly population.

Distribution and visual impact of postoperative refractive error after cataract surgery in rural China: study of cataract outcomes and up-take of services report 4.

PURPOSE: To model the possible impact of using average-power intraocular lenses (IOLs) and evaluate the postoperative refractive error in patients having cataract surgery in rural China.SETTING: Rural Guangdong, China.METHODS: Patients having cataract surgery by local surgeons were examined and visual function was assessed 10 to 14 months after surgery. Subjective refraction at near and distance was performed bilaterally by an ophthalmologist. Patients had a target refraction of -0.50 diopter (D) based on ocular biometry.RESULTS: Of the 313 eligible patients, 242 (77%) could be contacted and 176 (74% of contacted patients, 56% overall) were examined. Examined patients had a mean age of 69.4 +/- 10.5 years. Of the 211 operated eyes, 73.2% were within +/-1.0 D of the target refraction after surgery. The best presenting distance vision was in patients within +/-1.0 D of plano and the best presenting near vision, in those with mild myopia (<-1.0 D to > or =2.0 D) (P= .005). However, patients with hyperopia (>+1.0 D) reported significantly better adjusted visual function than those with emmetropia or myopia (<-1.0 D). When the predicted use of an average-power IOL (median +21.5 D) was modeled, predicted visual acuity was significantly reduced (P= .001); however, predicted visual function was not significantly altered (P>.3).CONCLUSIONS: Accurate selection of postoperative refractive error was achieved by local surgeons in this rural area. Based on visual function results, aiming for mild postoperative myopia may not be suitable in this setting. Implanting average-power IOLs significantly reduced postoperative presenting vision, but not visual function.