Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.

Spitzer infrared spectrograph point source classification in the Small Magellanic Cloud

The Magellanic Clouds are uniquely placed to study the stellar contribution to dust emission. Individual stars can be resolved in these systems even in the mid-infrared, and they are close enough to allow detection of infrared excess caused by dust. We have searched the Spitzer Space Telescope data archive for all Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) staring-mode observations of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) and found that 209 Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) point sources within the footprint of the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SAGE-SMC) Spitzer Legacy programme were targeted, within a total of 311 staring-mode observations. We classify these point sources using a decision tree method of object classification, based on infrared spectral features, continuum and spectral energy distribution shape, bolometric luminosity, cluster membership and variability information. We find 58 asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars, 51 young stellar objects, 4 post-AGB objects, 22 red supergiants, 27 stars (of which 23 are dusty OB stars), 24 planetary nebulae (PNe), 10 Wolf-Rayet stars, 3 H II regions, 3 R Coronae Borealis stars, 1 Blue Supergiant and 6 other objects, including 2 foreground AGB stars. We use these classifications to evaluate the success of photometric classification methods reported in the literature.

Using geotechnical and LIDAR spatial monitoring to determine key environmental slope instability thresholds of a Jurassic coastal landslide: Straidkilly Point, Northern Ireland, UK.

The Antrim Coast Road stretching from the seaport of Larne in the East of Northern Ireland to the famous Giant’s Causeway in the North has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most spectacular roads in Europe (Day, 2006). At various locations along the route, fluid interactions between the problematic geology, Jurassic Lias Clay and Triassic Mudstone overlain by Cretaceous Limestone and Tertiary Basalt, and environmental variables result in frequent instances of slope instability within the vadose zone. During such instances of instability, debris flows and composite mudflows encroach on the carriageway posing a hazard to road users. This paper examines the site investigative, geotechnical and spatial analysis techniques currently being implemented to monitor slope stability for one site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm, Northern Ireland. An in-depth understanding of the geology was obtained via boreholes, resistivity surveys and laboratory testing. Environmental variables recorded by an on-site weather station were correlated with measured pore water pressure and soil moisture infiltration dynamic data.
Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) was applied to the slope for the monitoring of failures, with surveys carried out on a bi-monthly basis. TLS monitoring allowed for the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of difference, highlighting areas of recent movement, erosion and deposition. Morphology parameters were generated from the DEMs and include slope, curvature and multiple measures of roughness. Changes in the structure of the slope coupled with morphological parameters are characterised and linked to progressive failures from the temporal monitoring. In addition to TLS monitoring, Aerial LiDARi datasets were used for the spatio-morphological characterisation of the slope on a macro scale. Results from the geotechnical and environmental monitoring were compared with spatial data obtained through Terrestrial and Airborne LiDAR, providing a multi-faceted approach to slope stability characterization, which facilitates more informed management of geotechnical risk by the Northern Ireland Roads Service.

A Computational Approach for Simulating P-type Silicon Piezoresistor Using Four Point Bending Setup

The piezoresistance effect is defined as change in resistance due to applied stress. Silicon has a relatively large piezoresistance effect which has been known since 1954. A four point bending setup is proposed and designed to analyze the piezoresistance effect in p-type silicon. This setup is used to apply uniform and uniaxial stress along the <110> crystal direction. The main aim of this work is to investigate the piezoresistive characteristic of p-type resistors as a function of doping concentrations using COMSOL Multiphysics. Simulation results are compared with experimental data.

Nanohole arrays enable multiple-point-source imaging

A new type of focal-palne array made of a nanoscale metal screen mimics the function of a lens, focuses light (and plasmons) into subwavelength hot spots, and achieves high-resolution imaging of complex sources.

The role of societal norms in portion size related behaviour in Denmark and on the Island of Ireland

Purpose:
Social norms influence eating behavior, but little is known about their role in portion size-related behavior. This study
explored the role of social eating norms in Denmark (DK) and the Island of Ireland (IOI) in relation to portion size-related
behavior.

Methods:
In a survey DK (n=1063) and IOI (n=1012) respondents rated social eating norms (11 items) and portion size-related behavior
(3 items) on a 7-point scale (1=strongly disagree to 7=strongly agree). The 3 items relate to: 1) anticipating how
much will be eaten at the beginning of a meal, 2) clearing the plate, and 3) clearing the plate even when full. Sociodemographics
and eating attitudes (e.g. cognitive restraint) were measured as background variables

Results:
Two social eating factors were identified: The ‘limit intake’ norm (6 items) and the ‘plate cleaning’ norm (3 items). The
DK participants reported stronger ‘limit intake’ norms and weaker ‘plate cleaning’ norms than IOI. In both countries
females reported stronger ‘limit intake’ norms while males reported stronger ‘plate cleaning’ norms. In DK, age was
positively correlated with both social eating norm factors. The ‘limit intake’ norm had stronger association with anticipating
how much will be eaten at the beginning of a meal, but the ‘plate cleaning’ norm had stronger association with
clearing the plate. Only the ‘plate cleaning’ norm was associated with clearing the plate even when full.

Conclusions:
The social eating norms vary significantly between countries and genders. The ‘limit intake’ and ‘plate cleaning’ norms
play a role in consumers’ reported portion size-related behavior.

Russia will brush off Litvinenko accusations – and there is little that can be done about it

The Litvinenko findings bring forth the dilemmas for the British government it hoped it could bury: how to reconcile moral principles with hardcore realities of international politics and economics.

Thermal environments and comfort in dementia friendly dwellings

This study follows on from a research project that developed guidelines for the Universal Design (UD) of Dementia Friendly Dwellings for People with Dementia, their Families and Carers. Research findings point to the need for thermal environments that support people with dementia and do not provoke stress, agitation or anxiety. Using semi-structured interviews and qualitative analysis of people with dementia this paper aims to provide insight into the questions of appropriate thermal environments. The qualitative analysis is supported by example simulated indoor environment studies that investigate comfort in common thermal environment provision scenarios in the homes of people with dementia. This paper focuses on the thermal environment, its impact on people with dementia, its therapeutic value, and its role in encouraging engagement in every day activity.
Findings from the interviews emphasize that control over their own internal environment is a priority for people with dementia. A strong preference for naturally or passively conditioned environments over mechanical conditioning is evident. Preferences are expressed for naturally ventilated environments enabling occupant instigated air movement. Repeated emphasis is placed on familiar elements including the fire and hot water bottle. Little desire is expressed for information feedback or technological displays.