Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Wear analysis and prediction of the life of a riveting die used in the automotive industry

Knowledge on the life span of the riveting dies used in the automotive industry is sparse. It is often the case that only when faulty products are produced are workers aware that their tool needs to be changed. This is of course costly both in terms of time and money. Responding to this challenge, this paper proposes a methodology which integrates wear and stress analysis to quantify the life of a riveting die. Experiments are carried out to measure the applied load required to split a rivet. The obtained results (i.e. force curves) are used to validate the wear mechanisms of the die observed using scanning electron microscopy. Sliding, impact, and adhesive wears are observed on the riveting die after a certain number of riveting cycles. The stress distribution on the die during riveting is simulated using a finite element (FE) approach. In order to confirm the accuracy of the FE model, the experimental force results are compared with the ones produced from FE simulation. The maximum and minimum von Mises' stresses generated from the FE model are input into a Goodman diagram and an S-N curve to compute the life of the riveting die. It is found that the riveting die is predicted to run for 4 980 000 cycles before failure.

Empowering Art: Reconfiguring narratives of trauma and hope in the Australian national imaginary

Aboriginal art has been the source of much contention between art curators, gallery owners, art critics and Aboriginal artists themselves. Early aesthetic debates about whether so-called traditional works should be considered ethnographic or artistic have led, at times, to conflicts over the rights of Aboriginal people to have their works exhibited according to the criteria applied to other kinds of Western artworks. This article explores how the dilemmas of troubled ethno-histories are critically embodied and reconfigured in texture and colour. It considers the problems that silenced histories pose for those responsible for their display to the public. As Aboriginal images often conceal troubled intercultural encounters it asks how artworks can be used to provide a counter-polemic to national rhetoric as artists seek to reshape and improve intergenerational futures. This text is published as a counterpart to the contribution to Disturbing Pasts from the artist Heather Kamarra Shearer.

Intakes of dietary folate and other B vitamins are associated with risks of esophageal adenocarcinoma, Barrett's esophagus, and reflux esophagitis

Folate is implicated in carcinogenesis via effects on DNA synthesis, repair, and methylation. Efficient folate metabolism requires other B vitamins and is adversely affected by smoking and alcohol. Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) may develop through a process involving inflammation [reflux esophagitis (RE)] leading to metaplasia [Barrett’s esophagus (BE)] and carcinoma. Within a population-based, case-control study, we investigated associations between dietary folate and related factors and risks of EAC, BE, and RE. EAC and BE cases had histologically confirmed disease; RE cases had endoscopically visible inflammation. Controls, age-sex frequency matched to EAC cases, were selected through population and general practice registers. Participants underwent structured interviews and completed food-frequency questionnaires. Multivariate ORs and 95% CIs were computed using logistic regression. A total of 256 controls and 223 EAC, 220 BE, and 219 RE cases participated. EAC risk decreased with increasing folate intake (OR highest vs. lowest = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.31, 1.00; P-trend < 0.01). Similar trends were found for BE (P-trend < 0.01) and RE (P-trend = 0.01). Vitamin B-6 intake was significantly inversely related to risks of all 3 lesions. Riboflavin intake was inversely associated with RE. Vitamin B-12 intake was positively associated with EAC. For EAC, there was a borderline significant interaction between folate intake and smoking (P-interaction = 0.053); compared with nonsmokers with high (≥median) folate intake, current smokers with low intakes (<median) had an 8-fold increased risk (OR: 8.15; 95% CI: 3.61, 18.40). The same group had increased BE risk (OR: 2.93; 95% CI: 1.24, 6.92; P-interaction = 0.12). Folate and other dietary methyl-group factors are implicated in the etiology of EAC and its precursors.

The Effectiveness of Weight Management Interventions in Breastfeeding Women—A Systematic Review and Critical Evaluation

Background: The postpartum period is a vulnerable time for excess weight retention, particularly for the increasing number of women who are overweight at the start of their pregnancy and subsequently find it difficult to lose additional weight gained during pregnancy. Although postpartum weight management interventions play an important role in breaking this potentially vicious cycle of weight gain, the effectiveness of such interventions in breastfeeding women remains unclear. Our aim was to systematically review the literature about the effectiveness of weight management interventions in breastfeeding women.

Methods: Seven electronic databases were searched for eligible papers. Intervention studies included were carried out exclusively in breastfeeding mothers, ≤2 years postpartum and with a body mass index greater than 18.5 kg/m2, with an outcome measure of change in weight and/or body composition.

Results: Six studies met the selection criteria, and were stratified according to the type of intervention and outcome measures. Despite considerable heterogeneity among studies, the dietary-based intervention studies appeared to be the most efficacious in promoting weight loss; however, few studies were tailored toward the needs of breastfeeding women.

Conclusions: Weight management interventions which include an energy-restricted diet may play a key role in successful postpartum weight loss for breastfeeding mothers.

Management and diagnosis of psychogenic cough, habit cough, and tic cough: A systematic review

BACKGROUND: Several pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic therapeutic options have been used to treat cough that is not associated with a pulmonary or extrapulmonary etiology.

METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to summarize the evidence supporting different cough management options in adults and children with psychogenic, tic, and habit cough. Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus were searched from the earliest inception of each database to September 2013. Content experts were contacted, and we searched bibliographies of included studies to identify additional references.

RESULTS: A total of 18 uncontrolled studies were identified, enrolling 223 patients (46% male subjects, 96% children and adolescents). Psychogenic cough was the most common descriptive term used (90% of the studies). Most of the patients (95%) had no cough during sleep; barking or honking quality of cough was described in only eight studies. Hypnosis (three studies), suggestion therapy (four studies), and counseling and reassurance (seven studies) were the most commonly used interventions. Hypnosis was effective in resolving cough in 78% of the patients and improving it in another 5%. Suggestion therapy resolved cough successfully in 96% of the patients. The greatest majority of improvements noted with these forms of therapy occurred in the pediatric age group. The quality of evidence is low due to the lack of control groups, the retrospective nature of all the studies, heterogeneity of definitions and diagnostic criteria, and the high likelihood of reporting bias.

CONCLUSIONS: Only low-quality evidence exists to support a particular strategy to define and treat psychogenic, habit, and tic cough. Patient values, preferences, and availability of potential therapies should guide treatment choice.

Barrier characteristics of PtSi/p-Si schottky diodes as determined from I-V-T measurements

The current-voltage-temperature characteristics of PtSi/p-Si Schottky barrier diodes were measured in the temperature range 60-115 K. Deviation of the ideality factor from unity below 80 K may be modelled using the so-called T-0 parameter with T-0 = 18 K. It is also shown that the curvature in the Richardson plots may be remedied by using the flatband rather than the zero-bias saturation current density. Physically, the departure from ideality is interpreted in terms of an inhomogeneous Schottky contact. Here we determine a mean barrier height at T = 0 K, phi(b)(-0) = 223 mV, with an (assumed) Gaussian distribution of standard deviation sigma(phi) = 12.5 mV. These data are correlated with the zero-bias barrier height, phi(j)(0) = 192 mV (at T = 90 K), the photoresponse barrier height, phi(ph) = 205 mV, and the flatband barrier height, phi(fb) = 214 mV. Finally, the temperature coefficient of the flatband barrier was found to be -0.121 mV K-1, which is approximately equal to 1/2(dE(g)(i)/dT), thus suggesting that the Fermi level at the interface is pinned to the middle of the band gap.

Complexity of Inferences in Polytree-shaped Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in linear time if there is a single observed node, which is a relevant practical case. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Sarcasm Detection on Czech and English Twitter

This paper presents a machine learning approach to sarcasm detection on Twitter in two languages – English and Czech. Although there has been some research in sarcasm detection in languages other than English (e.g., Dutch, Italian, and Brazilian Portuguese), our work is the first attempt at sarcasm detection in the Czech language. We created a large Czech Twitter corpus consisting of 7,000 manually-labeled tweets and provide it to the community. We evaluate two classifiers with various combinations of features on both the Czech and English datasets. Furthermore, we tackle the issues of rich Czech morphology by examining different preprocessing techniques. Experiments show that our language-independent approach significantly outperforms adapted state-of-the-art methods in English (F-measure 0.947) and also represents a strong baseline for further research in Czech (F-measure 0.582).

Pooled analysis of tiotropium Respimat® pharmacokinetics in cystic fibrosis

Tiotropium is the first bronchodilator to be studied systematically in cystic fibrosis (CF). We investigated whether any intrinsic or extrinsic factors affected pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters of inhaled tiotropium delivered by Respimat® in adults and children with CF. Tiotropium PK in patients with CF was compared with that of healthy volunteers and patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This pooled analysis summarizes the PK parameters of inhaled tiotropium Respimat® across 9 early- and late-phase trials involving 27 healthy volunteers (1 trial), 409 patients with CF (3 trials), and 281 patients with COPD (5 trials). Patients with CF aged 5 to 11, 12 to 17, and ≥18 years had similar tiotropium plasma concentrations (geometric mean C_{0.083,ss,norm}: 2.22pg/mL/μg; not determined for patients aged <5 years). The fraction excreted unchanged in the urine was 3.4-fold lower for patients aged 0.4 to <5 years than for those aged 5 to 11 years (fe_0-4,ss: 1.19% vs 4.09%). Tiotropium PK parameters were similar between CF patients and COPD patients.

Facilities management: Tracing its development trajectory

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide facilities management (FM) practitioners and researchers with a better understanding of the FM industry sector by analyzing the trend of its development.
Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interview is adopted in this research as the main methodology. In total, 30 FM professionals in the UK were interviewed to explore the past, present and future of FM. The analysis of interview results helps to identify the key areas in which FM has changed, is changing and will change. It also helps to explain the implications of FM development in each key area.
Findings – FM evolves and matures continuously. It is important for FM organizations and practitioners to recognize the dynamic nature of this industry sector, based on which they can develop appropriate strategies to adapt to changing circumstances. This is probably the only way for them to
keep pace with the times.
Originality/value – Both backward looking and forward looking are crucial to the development of an industry sector. However, existing studies on FM development are conducted through either review or outlook. On the other hand, most of these studies focus on one particular management area or one particular industry sector. Based on 30 expert interviews, this research attempts to bridge the knowledge gap and analyze the trend of FM development in a systematic way. A better understanding of the trend provides a possibility and a guide for FM organizations and practitioners to pursue best practice.