Restrospective genetic monitoring of the threatened Yellow marsh saxifrage (Saxifraga hirculus) reveals genetic erosion but provides valuable information for conservation strategies

Aim: Retrospective genetic monitoring, comparing genetic diversity of extant populations with historical samples, can provide valuable and often unique insights into evolutionary processes informing conservation strategies. The Yellow marsh saxifrage (Saxifraga hirculus) is listed as ‘critically endangered’ in Ireland with only two extant populations. We quantified genetic changes over time and identified genotypes in extant populations that could be used as founders for reintroductions to sites where the species is extinct.

Location: Ireland.

Methods: Samples were obtained from both locations where the species is currently found, including the most threatened site at the Garron Plateau, Co. Antrim, which held only 13 individuals during 2011. Herbarium samples covering the period from 1886 to 1957 were obtained including plants from the same area as the most threatened population, as well as three extinct populations. In total, 422 individuals (319 present-day and 103 historical) were genotyped at six microsatellite loci. Species distribution modelling was used to identify areas of potentially suitable habitat for reintroductions.

Results: Level of phenotypic diversity within the most threatened population was significantly lower in the present-day compared with historical samples but levels of observed heterozygosity and number of alleles, whilst reduced, did not differ significantly. However, Bayesian clustering analysis suggested gradual lineage replacement over time. All three measures of genetic diversity were generally lower at the most threatened population compared with the more substantial extant populations in Co. Mayo. Species distribution modelling suggested that habitat at one site where the species is extinct may be suitable for reintroduction.

Main conclusions: The dominant genetic lineage in the most threatened population is rare elsewhere; thus, care needs to be taken when formulating any potential reintroduction programme. Our findings highlight both the need for genetic monitoring of threatened populations, but also for its swift implementation before levels of diversity become critically low.

A scaling method for modelling the crashworthiness of novel roadside barrier designs

In this paper, a novel method for modelling a scaled vehicle–barrier crash test similar to the 20◦ angled barrier test specified in EN 1317 is reported. The intended application is for proof-of-concept evaluation of novel roadside barrier designs, and as a cost-effective precursor to full-scale testing or detailed computational modelling. The method is based on the combination of the conservation of energy law and the equation of motion of a spring mass system representing the impact, and shows, for the first time, the feasibility of applying classical scaling theories to evaluation of roadside barrier design. The scaling method is used to set the initial velocity of the vehicle in the scaled test and to provide scaling factors to convert the measured vehicle accelerations in the scaled test to predicted full-scale accelerations. These values can then be used to calculate the Acceleration Severity Index score of the barrier for a full-scale test. The theoretical validity of the method is demonstrated by comparison to numerical simulations of scaled and full-scale angled barrier impacts using multibody analysis implemented in the crash simulation software MADYMO. Results show a maximum error of 0.3% ascribable to the scaling method.

Log gf values for astrophysically important transitions Fe II

Aims. In a recent measurement, Meléndez & Barbuy (2009, A&A, 497, 611) report accurate log gf values for 142 important astrophysical lines with wavelengths in the range 4000 Å to 8000 Å. Their results include both solar and laboratory measurements. In this paper, we describe a theoretical study of these lines. Methods. The CIV3 structure codes, combined with our "fine-tuning" extrapolation process, are used to undertake a large-scale CI calculation involving the lowest 262 fine-structure levels belonging to the 3d4s, 3d, 3d4s, 3d4p, and 3d4s4p configurations. Results. We find that many of the 142 transitions are very weak intercombination lines. Other transitions are weak because the dominant configurations in the two levels differ by two orbitals. Conclusions. The comparison between our log gf values and the experimental values generally shows good agreement for most of these transitions, with our theoretical values agreeing slightly more closely with the solar than with the laboratory measurements. A detailed analysis of the small number of transitions for which the agreement between theory and experiment is not as good shows that such disagreements largely arise from severe cancellation due to CI mixing.

Crisis Cartels:Non-Economic Values, the Public Interest and Institutional Considerations

This paper considers the use of non-economic considerations in Article 101(3) analysis of industrial restructuring agreements, using the Commission's Decisions in Synthetic Fibres, Stichting Baksteen, and the recent UK Dairy Initiative as examples. I argue that contra to the Commission's recent economics-based approach; there is room for non-economic considerations to be taken into account within the framework of the European Treaties. The competition law issue is whether the provisions of Article 101(3) can save such agreements.
I further argue that there is legal room for non-economic considerations to be considered in evaluating these restructuring agreements, it is not clear who the appropriate arbiter of these considerations should be given the institutional limitations of courts (which have no democratic mandate), specialised competition agencies (which may be too technocratic in focus) and legislatures (which are susceptible to capture by rent-seeking interest groups).

Comparison of methods used to calculate typical threshold values for potentially toxic elements in soil

The environmental quality of land can be assessed by calculating relevant threshold values, which differentiate between concentrations of elements resulting from geogenic and diffuse anthropogenic sources and concentrations generated by point sources of elements. A simple process allowing the calculation of these typical threshold values (TTVs) was applied across a region of highly complex geology (Northern Ireland) to six elements of interest; arsenic, chromium, copper, lead, nickel and vanadium. Three methods for identifying domains (areas where a readily identifiable factor can be shown to control the concentration of an element) were used: k-means cluster analysis, boxplots and empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF). The ECDF method was most efficient at determining areas of both elevated and reduced concentrations and was used to identify domains in this investigation. Two statistical methods for calculating normal background concentrations (NBCs) and upper limits of geochemical baseline variation (ULBLs), currently used in conjunction with legislative regimes in the UK and Finland respectively, were applied within each domain. The NBC methodology was constructed to run within a specific legislative framework, and its use on this soil geochemical data set was influenced by the presence of skewed distributions and outliers. In contrast, the ULBL methodology was found to calculate more appropriate TTVs that were generally more conservative than the NBCs. TTVs indicate what a "typical" concentration of an element would be within a defined geographical area and should be considered alongside the risk that each of the elements pose in these areas to determine potential risk to receptors.

A comparison of biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) management strategies in Ireland and the Czech Republic and the lessons learned

In order to meet the recycling and recovery targets set forth by the European Union's (EU) Waste and Landfill Directives, both the Irish and Czech governments’ policy on waste management is changing to meet these pressures, with major emphasis being placed upon the management of biodegradable municipal waste (BMW). In particular, the EU Landfill Directive requires reductions in the rate of BMW going to landfill to 35% of 1995 values by 2016 and 2020 for Ireland and the Czech Republic, respectively. In this paper, the strategies of how Ireland and the Czech Republic plan to meet this challenge are compared. Ireland either landfills or exports its waste for recovery, while the Czech Republic has a relatively new waste management infrastructure. While Ireland met the first target of 75% diversion of BMW from landfill by 2010 and preliminary 2012 data indicate that Ireland is on track to meet the 2013 target, the achievement of the 2016 target remains at risk. Indicators that were developed to monitor the Czech Republic's path to meeting the targets demonstrate that it did not meet the first target that was set for 2010 and will probably not meet its 2013 target either. The evaluation reports on the implementation of Waste Management Plan of Czech Republic suggest that the currently applied strategy to divert biodegradable waste from landfill is not effective enough. For both countries, the EU Waste Framework and Landfill Directives will be a significant influence and driver of change in waste management practices and governance over the coming decade. This means that both countries will not only have to invest in infrastructure to achieve the targets, but will also have to increase awareness among the public in diverting this waste at the household level. Improving environmental education is part of increased awareness as it is imperative for citizens to understand the consequences of their actions as affluence continues to grow producing increased levels of waste.

Graphical abstract
Despite the differences in the levels of waste generation in both the Czech Republic and Ireland, each country can learn from each other in order to meet the recycling and recovery targets set by the European Union's (EU) Waste and Landfill Directives. Both countries will not only have to invest in infrastructure to achieve the targets, but will also have to increase awareness among the public in diverting this waste at the household level. In addition, there needs to be minimum safe standards when land-spreading organic agricultural and organic municipal and industrial materials on agricultural land used for food production, as well as incentives to increase BMW diversion from landfill such as the increased landfill levy implemented in Ireland and the acceptance of MBT and/or incineration as a means of treating residual waste.

Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 2. The role of host plant dynamics

This paper explores the relative effects of host plant dynamics and butterfly-related parameters on butterfly persistence. It considers an empty habitat network where a rare butterfly (Cupido minimus) became extinct in 1939 in part of its historical range in north Wales, UK. Surviving populations of the butterfly in southern Britain were visited to assess use of its host plant (Anthyllis vulneraria) in order to calibrate habitat suitability and carrying capacity in the empty network in north Wales. These data were used to deduce that only a portion ( similar to 19%) of the host plant network from north Wales was likely to be highly suitable for oviposition. Nonetheless, roughly 65,460 eggs (3273 adult equivalents) could be expected to be laid in north Wales, were the empty network to be populated at the same levels as observed on comparable plants in surviving populations elsewhere. Simulated metapopulations of C. minimus in the empty network revealed that time to extinction and patch occupancy were significantly influenced by carrying capacity, butterfly mean dispersal distance and environmental stochasticity, although for most reasonable parameter values, the model system persisted. Simulation outputs differed greatly when host plant dynamics was incorporated into the modelled butterfly dynamics. Cupido minimus usually went extinct when host plant were at low densities. In these simulations host plant dynamics appeared to be the most important determinant of the butterfly's regional extirpation. Modelling the outcome of a reintroduction programme to C. minimus variation at high quality locations, revealed that 65% of systems survived at least 100 years. Given the current amount of resources of the north Wales landscape, the persistence of C. minimus under a realistic reintroduction programme has a good chance of being successful, if carried out in conjunction with a host plant management programme.

The 'Ordinariness of the EU's Foreign Policy Power: The Use of WTO Litigation as a Means to Export EU Norms, Values and Interests

The EU has historically been portrayed as a distinctive international actor both in terms of the norms and values it exports in context of its international relations and the manner in which it seeks to influence others. However, such claims to the EU’s distinctiveness are increasingly being questioned. This article joins this chorus of voices arguing the non-distinctiveness of the EU’s foreign policy power by focusing on a specific feature of the EU’s external trade policy, the role of World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement in the EU’s attempts to promote its interests, values and norms.