Scotland's Sectarianism Problem: Irish Answers?

A series of developments during the 2010–11 football season has led to an intense public debate over the question of the nature and extent of religious sectarianism in Scotland. The Scottish National Party (SNP) government has responded with a new piece of legislation which has been widely criticised and has prompted some commentators to speculate about a political ‘own goal’. This article provides a guide to the debate around sectarianism and its historical and political dimensions. It also suggests that the Irish roots of the problem in Scotland should be properly acknowledged, and that a possible way forward could involve cooperation between Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland within the structures and procedures of the British–Irish Council (BIC).

Computational learning of the conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution: Learning C-Ph distributions

This paper presents a new algorithm for learning the structure of a special type of Bayesian network. The conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution is a Bayesian network that models the probabilistic causal relationships between a skewed continuous variable, modelled by the Coxian phase-type distribution, a special type of Markov model, and a set of interacting discrete variables. The algorithm takes a dataset as input and produces the structure, parameters and graphical representations of the fit of the C-Ph distribution as output.The algorithm, which uses a greedy-search technique and has been implemented in MATLAB, is evaluated using a simulated data set consisting of 20,000 cases. The results show that the original C-Ph distribution is recaptured and the fit of the network to the data is discussed.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC_Ph) for patient waiting time with a logistic regression component to predict patient admission to hospital

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models are a family of models which represent skewed survival data conditioned on specific inter-related discrete variables. The survival data is modeled using a Coxian phase-type distribution which is associated with the inter-related variables using a range of possible data mining approaches such as Bayesian networks (BNs), the Naïve Bayes Classification method and classification regression trees. This paper utilizes the Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC-Ph) to explore the modeling of patient waiting times in an Accident and Emergency Department of a UK hospital. The resulting DC-Ph model takes on the form of the Coxian phase-type distribution conditioned on the outcome of a logistic regression model.

The contribution of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child to understanding and promoting the interests of young people making the transition from care to adulthood

The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC) acknowledges that young people without parental care are entitled to special support and assistance from the State. In detailing their expectations, the UN Committee have issued Guidelines for the Alternative Care of Children which recognise that State parties have a number of responsibilities towards care leavers. The paper explores how the UNCRC reporting process, and guidelines from the Committee outlining how States should promote the rights of young people making the transition from care to adulthood, can be used as an instrument to track global patterns of change in policy and practice. Content analysis of State Party Reports and Concluding Observations from 15 countries reveals that to date there has been limited engagement with understanding and promoting the needs of this group in the reporting process; although where a government is committed to developing legislation and practice then this does find its way into their national reports. Data supplied by affiliates of the International Research Network on Transitions to Adulthood from Care (INTRAC) reveals that national concerns, political ideology, public awareness, attitudes and knowledge of the vulnerability of care leavers influence service responses to protect and promote the rights of this group and the attention afforded to such issues in reports to the Committee. Findings also suggest that global governance is not simply a matter of top down influence. Future work on both promoting and monitoring of the impact of the UNCRC needs to recognise that what is in play is the management of a complex global/national dynamic with all its uneven development, levels of influence and with a range of institutional actors involved.

Engaging with the European Union? Exploring the Europeanization of the British National Party

Hostility towards the process of European integration is generally considered to constitute one of the hallmarks of the far right ‘family’ in Europe. This article acknowledges such opposition but it also recognises that the rhetoric is often at odds with actual policy activities and aspirations. Not only have far right parties long advocated greater European inter-party co-operation but they are now actively pursuing engagement with the European Union, especially the European Parliament, as a means of advancing their own strategic interests and boosting their finances. This article focuses on one far right party, namely the British National Party (BNP) and examines the party's approach towards the EU, its activities within the EP and its efforts to boost pan European cooperation through the new Alliance of European National Movements (AENM). It argues that the party's engagement with the European Union may have allowed the BNP to take advantage of new political opportunity structures but in turn, opened it up to Europeanization and made it increasingly dependent on the EU.

Telling stories of 21st Century welfare: the UK Coalition Government and the neo-liberal discourse of worklessness and dependency’ Critical Social Policy

Policy documents are a useful source for understanding the privileging of particular ideological and policy preferences (Scrase and Ockwell, 2010) and how the language and imagery may help to construct society’s assumptions, values and beliefs. This article examines how the UK Coalition government’s 2010 Green Paper, 21st Century Welfare, and the White Paper, Universal Credit: Welfare that Works, assist in constructing a discourse about social security that favours a renewal and deepening of neo-liberalization in the context of threats to its hegemony. The documents marginalize the structural aspects of persistent unemployment and poverty by transforming these into individual pathologies of benefit dependency and worklessness. The consequence is that familiar neo-liberal policy measures favouring the intensification of punitive conditionality and economic rationality can be portrayed as new and innovative solutions to address Britain’s supposedly broken society and restore economic competitiveness.

The Conditional Phase-type distribution: Graphical Models for Continuous Non-Normal Data:The Conditional Phase-type (C-Ph) distribution:

Conditional Gaussian (CG) distributions allow the inclusion of both discrete and continuous variables in a model assuming that the continuous variable is normally distributed. However, the CG distributions have proved to be unsuitable for survival data which tends to be highly skewed. A new method of analysis is required to take into account continuous variables which are not normally distributed. The aim of this paper is to introduce the more appropriate conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution for representing a continuous non-normal variable while also incorporating the causal information in the form of a Bayesian network.