Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Cultivating Compassion through analysis of online patient narratives

Compassion is at the forefront of national and international healthcare policy, practice and educational debates as a result of a series of recent reports (Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust Inquiry, 2010, Lown et al 2011, Mannion, 2014). Arguably, this emphasis on compassion is in juxtaposition to an increasingly complex technological healthcare system focused upon outcomes, efficiency, productivity and competence. Within this fast paced and time pressured environment innovative strategies are required to cultivate and sustain compassion among healthcare professionals.

Understanding the person’s experience of illness and making an emotional connection are key processes in cultivating compassion (Dewar, 2013). The exponential growth in unsolicited patient narratives has the potential to provide invaluable insight into what matters to patients and their experience of illness. For many patients these stories ‘reclaim’ their illnesses from the traditional biomedical model of disease and reveal otherwise hidden aspects of their experience. The content though freely accessible, is however unedited and lacks safeguards in relation to the quality or accuracy of the information provided. Despite these concerns, healthcare professionals are now challenged to pay attention to these unsolicited patient stories and to consider how they can inform and improve patient care.

This paper discusses the use of online patient narratives in undergraduate nurse education to cultivate compassion. Critical analysis of online patient narratives is advocated as a potential educational strategy to cultivate compassion among future health care professionals.

References
Dewar,B. (2013) Cultivating compassionate care Nursing Standard 27, (34) 48-55

Lown B, Rosen J, Martilla J.(2011) An agenda for improving compassionate care: a survey shows about half of patients say such care is missing. Health Affairs (Millwood) 30, 1772–8.
Mannion,R. (2014) Enabling compassionate healthcare: perils, prospects and perspectives International Journal of Health Policy and Management 2, 115-7
Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust Inquiry (2010). Independent Inquiry into care provided by Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation London: Stationery Office.

Potential of hydrogel-forming and dissolving microneedles for use in paediatric populations

Development of formulations and drug delivery strategies for paediatric use is challenging, partially due to the age ranges within this population, resulting in varying requirements to achieve optimised patient outcomes. Although the oral route of drug delivery remains the preferred option, there are problematic issues, such as difficulty swallowing and palatability of medicines specific to this population. The parenteral route is not well accepted by children due to needle-related fear and pain. Accordingly, a plethora of alternative routes of drug administration have been investigated. Microneedles (MN) breach the stratum corneum (SC), the outermost layer of skin, increasing the number of drug substances amenable to transdermal delivery. This strategy involves the use of micron-sized needles to painlessly, and without drawing blood, create transient aqueous conduits in the SC. In this study, polymeric dissolving MN and hydrogel-forming MN were fabricated incorporating two model drugs commonly used in paediatric patients (caffeine and lidocaine hydrochloride). The potential efficacy of these MN for paediatric dosing was investigated via in vitro and in vivo studies. Views pertaining to MN technology were sought amongst school children in Northern Ireland, members of the UK general public and UK-based paediatricians, to determine perceived benefits, acceptance, barriers and concerns for adoption of this technology. In this study, polymeric MN were shown to substantially enhance skin permeability of the model therapeutic molecules in vitro and in vivo. In particular, hydrogel-forming MN led to a 6.1-fold increase in caffeine delivery whilst lidocaine HCl delivery was increased by 3.3-fold using dissolving MN in vitro. Application of caffeine-loaded MN led to a caffeine plasma concentration of 23.87μg/mL in rats at 24h. This research also highlighted a strong consensus regarding MN technology amongst schoolchildren, paediatricians and the general public, regarding potential use of MN in the paediatric population. Overall, 93.6% of general public respondents and 85.9% of paediatricians regarded the use of MN as a positive approach.

A patient perspective of pharmacist prescribing: 'crossing the specialisms-crossing the illnesses'

Background: The drive for non-medical prescribing has progressed quickly since the late 1990s and involves a range of healthcare professionals including pharmacists. As part of a commissioned research project, this qualitative element of a larger case study focused on the views of patients of pharmacist prescribers. 

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore patients' perspectives of pharmacists as prescribers. 

Methods: Three pharmacists working as independent prescribers in the clinical areas of (i) hypertension, (ii) cardiovascular/diabetes management, (iii) anticoagulation were recruited to three case studies of pharmacist prescribing in Northern Ireland. One hundred and five patients were invited to participate in focus groups after they had been prescribed for by the pharmacist. Focus groups took place between November 2010 and March 2011 (ethical/governance approvals granted) were audio taped, transcribed verbatim, read independently by two authors and analysed using constant comparative analysis. 

Results: Thirty-four patients agreed to participate across seven focus groups. Analysis revealed the emergence of one overarching theme: team approach to patient care. A number of subthemes related to the role of the pharmacist, the role of the doctor and patient benefits. There was an overwhelming lack of awareness of pharmacist prescribing. Patients discussed the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to their care and recognized limitations of the current model of prescribing. 

Conclusion: Patients were positive about pharmacist prescribing and felt that a team approach to their care was the ideal model especially when treating those with more complex conditions. Despite positive attitudes, there was a general lack of awareness of this new mode of practice.

Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

Musculoskeletal (MSK) and Sport and Exercise Medicine (SEM) in General Practice (GP): A Novel GP-based clinic

The problem-Musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms are common within primary care but some GPs are not comfortable managing these; waiting times for hospital appointments are a major cause of patients’ complaints. Current UK healthcare policies emphasise a need for more community-based management. We aimed to pilot an innovative general practice-based clinic to improve the management of MSK and Sport and Exercise Medicine (SEM) symptoms within general practice.

The approach-This project was conducted in an inner-city practice of approximately 9,000 patients and 5 GP partners. The practice commissioned a novel monthly 4-hour clinic staffed by one GP with a specialist interest in MSK and SEM conditions. Each patient was allocated a 20-minute appointment. All primary care staff within the practice could refer any patient for whom they considered hospital referral appropriate, with no specific exclusion criteria. Management plans included injection therapy, exercise prescription and onward referral. After three months (August-October 2014) numbers of consultations, sources of referral, reasons for referral and management outcomes were described; patient satisfaction was assessed by questionnaire, offered to 10 randomly selected patients by reception staff and self-completed by patients. Costs of the clinic were compared to current options.

Findings- All patients (14 males; 21 females; aged 35-77 years), were seen within four weeks of referral (one third of orthopaedic referrals in 2013 waited over 9 weeks for appointment). Most were referred from other GPs; some came from physiotherapy and podiatry. Shoulder problems were the most frequent reason for referral. The commonest management option was steroid injection, with most patients being given advice regarding exercise and analgesia; there were 3 onward referrals (2 physiotherapy; 1 rheumatology).

Comparing August-October data in 2014 and 2013, total, orthopaedic and rheumatology referrals were reduced by 147, 2 and 3, respectively; within the practice MSK presentations and physiotherapy and x-ray referrals were 60, 47 and 90 fewer, respectively.

The cost per attendance at the clinic was £61; initial orthopaedic-ICAT assessments cost £82 and a consultant appointment £213.

Satisfaction questionnaires were returned by all 10 selected participants and provided positive feedback, expressing preference for community-based, rather than hospital, management.

Consequence- Our pilot study indicates that this novel service model has potential for efficient and effective management of MSK and SEM complaints in primary care, reducing the need for hospital referral and the clinical burden on general practices. The innovation deserves further evaluation in a full-scale trial to determine its generalisability to other practice settings and populations.

Improved model for interfacial stresses accounting for the effect of shear deformation in plated beams

A significant increase in strength and performance of reinforced concrete, timber and metal beams may be achieved by adhesively bonding a fibre reinforced polymer composite, or metallic such as steel plate to the tension face of a beam. One of the major failure modes in these plated beams is the debonding of the plate from the original beam in a brittle manner. This is commonly attributed to the interfacial stresses between the adherends whose quantification has led to the development of many analytical solutions over the last two decades. The adherends are subjected to axial, bending and shear deformations. However, most analytical solutions have neglected the effect of shear deformation in adherends. Few solutions consider this effect approximately but are limited to one or two specific loading conditions. This paper presents a more rigorous solution for interfacial stresses in plated beams under an arbitrary loading with the shear deformation of the adherends duly considered in closed form using Timoshenko’s beam theory. The solution is general to linear elastic analysis of prismatic beams of arbitrary cross section under arbitrary loading with a plate of any thickness bonded either symmetrically or asymmetrically with respect to the span of the beam.

Monitoring of lineage-specific chimaerism allows early prediction of response following donor lymphocyte infusions for relapsed chronic myeloid leukaemia

Donor lymphocyte infusions (DLI) have been shown to enhance the graft-versus-leukaemia (GVL) effect and induce haematological and molecular remission in patients with relapsed CML following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT). The potent donor cell-mediated cytolysis following DLI may lead to a short period of aplasia before the re-establishment of donor haematopoiesis. The absence of detectable donor cells in patients prior to DLI infusion may result in permanent aplasia in certain patients. We report on four patients who relapsed 1, 3, 6.5 and 7 years post-BMT for chronic phase CML and were treated with DLI from their original BMT donor. Polymorphic short tandem repeats (STRs) were used to assess haematological chimaerism both prior to and following DLI. At the time of relapse, STR-PCR indicated the presence of donor cells in all four patients, at levels ranging from 1-40%. A clinical and molecular response was seen in 4/4 patients following a short period of cytopenia and all patients remain in clinical remission with a follow-up of 2 months-3 years post-DLI. STR-PCR indicated that a response was occurring during the period of pancytopenia when metaphase analysis was unsuccessful. Lineage-specific analysis of the cellular response to DLI was monitored using STR-PCR of peripheral blood (PB) and bone marrow (BM) lymphocyte-enriched fractions and CD2-positive and -negative T cell fractions. In one patient BM and PB CD34-positive and -negative fractions were also assessed. A change in the ratio of donor:recipient cells in the PB lymphocyte fraction was the earliest molecular indication of an anti-leukaemic response. Subsequent conversion to donor chimaerism occurred in the other lineages and the granulocyte fraction was the last lineage to convert. In conclusion, lineage-specific STR-PCR permits detailed monitoring of subtle changes in donor/recipient cell dynamics in specific lineages following DLI during the crucial pancytopenic phase and may be a useful predictor of haematological response to DLI therapy.

The Coxian phase-type distribution as a contribution to the multilevel model of in-hospital mortality

This paper presents multilevel models that utilize the Coxian phase-type distribution in order to be able to include a survival component in the model. The approach is demonstrated by modeling patient length of stay and in-hospital mortality in geriatric wards in Italy. The multilevel model is used to provide a means of controlling for the existence of possible intra-ward correlations, which may make patients within a hospital more alike in terms of experienced outcome than patients coming from different hospitals, everything else being equal. Within this multilevel model we introduce the use of the Coxian phase-type distribution to create a covariate that represents patient length of stay or stage (of hospital care). Results demonstrate that the use of the multilevel model for representing the in-patient mortality is successful and further enhanced by the inclusion of the Coxian phase-type distribution variable (stage covariate).

Using the hidden Markov model to capture quality of care in Lombardy geriatric wards

Quality of care is an important aspect of healthcare monitoring, which is used to ensure that the healthcare system is delivering care of the highest standard. With populations growing older there is an increased urgency in making sure that the healthcare delivered is of the highest standard. Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that this is the case with public and government demand expecting a healthcare system of the highest quality. Modelling quality of care is difficult to measure due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay and the associated quality of care incorporated into the Coxian using a Hidden Markov model. Covariates are also introduced to determine their impact on the hidden level to find out what potentially can affect quality of care. This model is applied to geriatic patient data from the Lombardy region of Italy. The results obtained highlighted that bed numbers and the type of hospital (public or private) can have an effect on the quality of care delivered.

A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Disseminated tumor cells and their prognostic significance in nonmetastatic prostate cancer patients

Detection of pretreatment disseminated cells (pre-DTC) reflecting its homing to bone marrow (BM) in prostate cancer (PCa) might improve the current model to predict recurrence or survival in men with nonmetastatic disease despite of primary treatment. Thereby, pre-DTC may serve as an early prognostic biomarker. Post-treatment DTCs (post-DTC) finding may supply the clinician with additional predictive information about the possible course of PCa. To assess the prognostic impact of DTCs in BM aspirates sampled before initiation of primary therapy (pre-DTC) and at least 2 years after (post-DTC) to established prognostic factors and survival in patients with PCa. Available BM of 129 long-term follow-up patients with T1-3N0M0 PCa was assessed in addition to 100 BM of those in whom a pretreatment BM was sampled. Patients received either combined therapy [n = 81 (63%)], radiotherapy (RT) with different duration of hormone treatment (HT) or monotherapy with RT or HT alone [n = 48 (37%)] adapted to the criteria of the SPCG-7 trial. Mononuclear cells were deposited on slides according to the cytospin methodology and DTCs were identified by immunocytochemistry using the pancytokeratin antibodies AE1/AE3. The median age of men at diagnosis was 64.5 years (range 49.5-73.4 years). The median long-term follow-up from first BM sampling to last observation was 11 years. Categorized clinically relevant factors in PCa showed only pre-DTC status as the statistically independent parameter for survival in the multivariate analysis. Pre-DTCs homing to BM are significantly associated with clinically relevant outcome independent to the patient's treatment at diagnosis with nonmetastatic PCa.

Attending Physician Variability: A Model of Four Supervisory Styles

Purpose: There is wide variability in how attending physician roles on teaching teams, including patient care and trainee learning, are enacted. This study sought to better understand variability by considering how different attendings configured and rationalized direct patient care, trainee oversight, and teaching activities. 

Method: Constructivist grounded theory guided iterative data collection and analyses. Data were interviews with 24 attending physicians from two academic centers in Ontario, Canada, in 2012. During interviews, participants heard a hypothetical presentation and reflected on it as though it were presented to their team during a typical admission case review. 

Results: Four supervisory styles were identified: direct care, empowerment, mixed practice, and minimalist. Driven by concerns for patient safety, direct care involves delegating minimal patient care responsibility to trainees. Focused on supporting trainees’ progressive independence, empowerment uses teaching and oversight strategies to ensure quality of care. In mixed practice, patient care is privileged over teaching and is adjusted on the basis of trainee competence and contextual features such as patient volume. Minimalist style involves a high degree of trust in senior residents, delegating most patient care, and teaching to them. Attendings rarely discussed their styles with the team. 

Conclusions: The model adds to the literature on variability in supervisory practice, showing that the four styles reflect different ways of responding to tensions in the role and context. This model could be refined through observational research exploring the impact of context on style development and enactment. Making supervisory styles explicit could support improvement of team competence.

Factors that impact on the use of mechanical ventilation weaning protocols in critically ill adults and children: a qualitative-evidence synthesis

Background:
Prolonged mechanical ventilation is associated with a longer intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay and higher mortality. Consequently, methods to improve ventilator weaning processes have been sought. Two recent Cochrane systematic reviews in ICU adult and paediatric populations concluded that protocols can be effective in reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation, but there was significant heterogeneity in study findings. Growing awareness of the benefits of understanding the contextual factors impacting on effectiveness has encouraged the integration of qualitative evidence syntheses with effectiveness reviews, which has delivered important insights into the reasons underpinning (differential) effectiveness of healthcare interventions.

Objectives:
1. To locate, appraise and synthesize qualitative evidence concerning the barriers and facilitators of the use of protocols for weaning critically-ill adults and children from mechanical ventilation;

2. To integrate this synthesis with two Cochrane effectiveness reviews of protocolized weaning to help explain observed heterogeneity by identifying contextual factors that impact on the use of protocols for weaning critically-ill adults and children from mechanical ventilation;

3. To use the integrated body of evidence to suggest the circumstances in which weaning protocols are most likely to be used.

Search methods:
We used a range of search terms identified with the help of the SPICE (Setting, Perspective, Intervention, Comparison, Evaluation) mnemonic. Where available, we used appropriate methodological filters for specific databases. We searched the following databases: Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, OVID, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus, EBSCOHost, Web of Science Core Collection, ASSIA, IBSS, Sociological Abstracts, ProQuest and LILACS on the 26th February 2015. In addition, we searched: the grey literature; the websites of professional associations for relevant publications; and the reference lists of all publications reviewed. We also contacted authors of the trials included in the effectiveness reviews as well as of studies (potentially) included in the qualitative synthesis, conducted citation searches of the publications reporting these studies, and contacted content experts.

We reran the search on 3rd July 2016 and found three studies, which are awaiting classification.

Selection criteria:
We included qualitative studies that described: the circumstances in which protocols are designed, implemented or used, or both, and the views and experiences of healthcare professionals either involved in the design, implementation or use of weaning protocols or involved in the weaning of critically-ill adults and children from mechanical ventilation not using protocols. We included studies that: reflected on any aspect of the use of protocols, explored contextual factors relevant to the development, implementation or use of weaning protocols, and reported contextual phenomena and outcomes identified as relevant to the effectiveness of protocolized weaning from mechanical ventilation.

Data collection and analysis:
At each stage, two review authors undertook designated tasks, with the results shared amongst the wider team for discussion and final development. We independently reviewed all retrieved titles, abstracts and full papers for inclusion, and independently extracted selected data from included studies. We used the findings of the included studies to develop a new set of analytic themes focused on the barriers and facilitators to the use of protocols, and further refined them to produce a set of summary statements. We used the Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative Research (CERQual) framework to arrive at a final assessment of the overall confidence of the evidence used in the synthesis. We included all studies but undertook two sensitivity analyses to determine how the removal of certain bodies of evidence impacted on the content and confidence of the synthesis. We deployed a logic model to integrate the findings of the qualitative evidence synthesis with those of the Cochrane effectiveness reviews.

Main results:
We included 11 studies in our synthesis, involving 267 participants (one study did not report the number of participants). Five more studies are awaiting classification and will be dealt with when we update the review.

The quality of the evidence was mixed; of the 35 summary statements, we assessed 17 as ‘low’, 13 as ‘moderate’ and five as ‘high’ confidence. Our synthesis produced nine analytical themes, which report potential barriers and facilitators to the use of protocols. The themes are: the need for continual staff training and development; clinical experience as this promotes felt and perceived competence and confidence to wean; the vulnerability of weaning to disparate interprofessional working; an understanding of protocols as militating against a necessary proactivity in clinical practice; perceived nursing scope of practice and professional risk; ICU structure and processes of care; the ability of protocols to act as a prompt for shared care and consistency in weaning practice; maximizing the use of protocols through visibility and ease of implementation; and the ability of protocols to act as a framework for communication with parents.

Authors' conclusions:
There is a clear need for weaning protocols to take account of the social and cultural environment in which they are to be implemented. Irrespective of its inherent strengths, a protocol will not be used if it does not accommodate these complexities. In terms of protocol development, comprehensive interprofessional input will help to ensure broad-based understanding and a sense of ‘ownership’. In terms of implementation, all relevant ICU staff will benefit from general weaning as well as protocol-specific training; not only will this help secure a relevant clinical knowledge base and operational understanding, but will also demonstrate to others that this knowledge and understanding is in place. In order to maximize relevance and acceptability, protocols should be designed with the patient profile and requirements of the target ICU in mind. Predictably, an under-resourced ICU will impact adversely on protocol implementation, as staff will prioritize management of acutely deteriorating and critically-ill patients.

Identification of novel Factor XI mutations in a patient requiring dental extractions

Factor XI is a serine protease that participates in the intrinsic pathway of blood coagulation. Patients deficient in factor XI exhibit varying degrees of post operative bleeding following invasive surgical procedures such as dental extractions. Objectives: The aim of the study was to identify the specific mutations in a patient from a family with known factor XI deficiency. Methods: Samples were obtained from the patient, his mother and his father and subjected to DNA sequencing. Each protein coding exon 2-15 of the factor XI gene was amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) followed by bidirectional sequencing utilizing di-deoxy chain termination chemistry. Results: The patient had a factor XI level of 20% of normal. Initial sequencing of factor XI from the patient identified a point mutation (646G>A) and a putative splice site mutation (1567+4A>T) in intron 13. These are novel previously unreported mutations. DNA sequence analysis of the mother revealed the 1567+4A>T mutation and the father exhibited the 646G>A mutation. As a consequence the treatment proceeded without serious bleeding complication and required administration only of transexamic acid though factor XI was available as haemostatic cover. Conclusion: The two mutations identified in this family are novel; further laboratory investigation of the functional consequences of those mutations is currently underway. Although factor XI deficiency is rare in the Northern Irish population this study highlights the techniques available to sequence and analyse this and similar haematological disorders.