Reducing Parametric Uncertainty in Limit Cycle Oscillations

The assimilation of discrete higher fidelity data points with model predictions can be used to achieve a reduction in the uncertainty of the model input parameters which generate accurate predictions. The problem investigated here involves the prediction of limit-cycle oscillations using a High-Dimensional Harmonic Balance method (HDHB). The efficiency of the HDHB method is exploited to enable calibration of structural input parameters using a Bayesian inference technique. Markov-chain Monte Carlo is employed to sample the posterior distributions. Parameter estimation is carried out on both a pitch/plunge aerofoil and Goland wing configuration. In both cases significant refinement was achieved in the distribution of possible structural parameters allowing better predictions of their
true deterministic values.

Kernel based approaches to local nonlinear non-parametric variable selection

In this paper, we consider the variable selection problem for a nonlinear non-parametric system. Two approaches are proposed, one top-down approach and one bottom-up approach. The top-down algorithm selects a variable by detecting if the corresponding partial derivative is zero or not at the point of interest. The algorithm is shown to have not only the parameter but also the set convergence. This is critical because the variable selection problem is binary, a variable is either selected or not selected. The bottom-up approach is based on the forward/backward stepwise selection which is designed to work if the data length is limited. Both approaches determine the most important variables locally and allow the unknown non-parametric nonlinear system to have different local dimensions at different points of interest. Further, two potential applications along with numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed algorithms.

A Parametric Study Of A Turbogenerator On A Diesel-Electric Hybrid Bus

The fuel consumption of automotive vehicles has become a prime consideration to manufacturers and operators as fuel prices continue to rise steadily, and legislation governing toxic emissions becomes ever more strict. This is particularly true for bus operators as government fuel subsidies are cut or removed.

In an effort to reduce the fuel consumption of a diesel-electric hybrid bus, an exhaust recovery turbogenerator has been selected from a wide ranging literature review as the most appropriate method of recovering some of the wasted heat in the exhaust line. This paper examines the effect on fuel consumption of a turbogenerator applied to a 2.4-litre diesel engine.

A validated one-dimensional engine model created using Ricardo WAVE was used as a baseline, and was modified in subsequent models to include a turbogenerator downstream, and in series with, the turbocharger turbine. A fuel consumption map of the modified engine was produced, and an in-house simulation tool was then used to examine the fuel economy benefit delivered by the turbogenerator on a bus operating on various drive-cycles.

A parametric study is presented which examined the performance of turbogenerators of various size and power output. The operating strategy of the turbogenerator was also discussed with a view to maximising turbine efficiency at each operating point.

The performance of the existing turbocharger on the hybrid bus was also investigated; both the compressor and turbine were optimised and the subsequent benefits to the fuel consumption of the vehicle were shown.

The final configuration is then presented and the overall improvement in fuel economy of the hybrid bus was determined over various drive-cycles.

On Variable Selection of a Nonlinear Non-parametric System with a Limited Data Set: A Stepwise Algorithm

his paper considers a problem of identification for a high dimensional nonlinear non-parametric system when only a limited data set is available. The algorithms are proposed for this purpose which exploit the relationship between the input variables and the output and further the inter-dependence of input variables so that the importance of the input variables can be established. A key to these algorithms is the non-parametric two stage input selection algorithm.

Non-parametric bill of quantities estimation of concrete road bridges' superstructure: an artificial neural networks approach

Bridge construction responds to the need for environmentally friendly design of motorways and facilitates the passage through sensitive natural areas and the bypassing of urban areas. However, according to numerous research studies, bridge construction presents substantial budget overruns. Therefore, it is necessary early in the planning process for the decision makers to have reliable estimates of the final cost based on previously constructed projects. At the same time, the current European financial crisis reduces the available capital for investments and financial institutions are even less willing to finance transportation infrastructure. Consequently, it is even more necessary today to estimate the budget of high-cost construction projects -such as road bridges- with reasonable accuracy, in order for the state funds to be invested with lower risk and the projects to be designed with the highest possible efficiency. In this paper, a Bill-of-Quantities (BoQ) estimation tool for road bridges is developed in order to support the decisions made at the preliminary planning and design stages of highways. Specifically, a Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a hidden layer of 10 neurons is trained to predict the superstructure material quantities (concrete, pre-stressed steel and reinforcing steel) using the width of the deck, the adjusted length of span or cantilever and the type of the bridge as input variables. The training dataset includes actual data from 68 recently constructed concrete motorway bridges in Greece. According to the relevant metrics, the developed model captures very well the complex interrelations in the dataset and demonstrates strong generalisation capability. Furthermore, it outperforms the linear regression models developed for the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed cost estimation model stands as a useful and reliable tool for the construction industry as it enables planners to reach informed decisions for technical and economic planning of concrete bridge projects from their early implementation stages.

Parametric study to extract bridge frequencies from the dynamic response of passing vehicles

A conventional way to identify bridge frequencies is utilizing vibration data measured directly from the bridge. A drawback with this approach is that the deployment and maintenance of the vibration sensors are generally costly and time-consuming. One way to cope with the drawback is an indirect approach utilizing vehicle vibrations while the vehicle passes over the bridge. In the indirect approach, however, the vehicle vibration includes the effect of road surface roughness, which makes it difficult to extract the bridge modal properties. One solution may be subtracting signals of two trailers towed by a vehicle to reduce the effect of road surface roughness. A simplified vehicle-bridge interaction model is used in the numerical simulation; the vehicle - trailer and bridge system are modeled as a coupled model. In addition, a laboratory experiment is carried out to verify results of the simulation and examine feasibility of the damage detection by the indirect method.

A Parametric Study of a Drive by Bridge Inspection System Based on the Morlet Wavelet

Many of the bridges currently in use worldwide are approaching the end of their design lives. However, rehabilitating and extending the lives of these structures raises important safety issues. There is also a need for increased monitoring which has considerable cost implications for bridge management systems. Existing structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques include vibration-based approaches which typically involve direct instrumentation of the bridge and are important as they can indicate the deterioration of the bridge condition. However, they can be labour intensive and expensive. In the past decade, alternative indirect vibration-based approaches which utilise the response of a vehicle passing over a bridge have been developed. This paper investigates such an approach; a low-cost approach for the monitoring of bridge structures which consists of the use of a vehicle fitted with accelerometers on its axles. The approach aims to detect damage in the bridge while obviating the need for direct instrumentation of the bridge. Here, the effectiveness of the approach in detecting damage in a bridge is investigated using a simplified vehicle-bridge interaction (VBI) model in theoretical simulations and a scaled VBI model in a laboratory experiment. In order to identify the existence and location of damage, the vehicle accelerations are recorded and processed using a continuous Morlet wavelet transform and a damage index is established. A parametric study is carried out to investigate the effect of parameters such as the bridge span length, vehicle speed, vehicle mass, damage level and road surface roughness on the accuracy of results.

Second-Order Statistics of κ−µ Shadowed Fading Channels

In this paper, novel closed-form expressions for the level crossing rate and average fade duration of κ − μ shadowed fading channels are derived. The new equations provide the capability of modeling the correlation between the time derivative of the shadowed dominant and multipath components of the κ − μ shadowed fading envelope. Verification of the new equations is performed by reduction to a number of known special cases. It is shown that as the shadowing of the resultant dominant component decreases, the signal crosses lower threshold levels at a reduced rate. Furthermore, the impact of increasing correlation between the slope of the shadowed dominant and multipath components similarly acts to reduce crossings at lower signal levels. The new expressions for the second-order statistics are also compared with field measurements obtained for cellular device-to-device and body-centric communication channels, which are known to be susceptible to shadowed fading.

Pharmacy students' use and views on over-the-counter (OTC) medicines; a questionnaire study

Introduction
The role of the pharmacist centers on ensuring the safe and effective use of medicines, including over-the-counter (OTC) medicines. It is important to ascertain pharmacy students’ use and opinions on OTC medicines, given that they are the pharmacists of the future and that this market continues to expand. This study aimed to investigate Queen’s University Belfast (QUB) final year pharmacy students’ use and views on OTC medicines. Scarce work has been conducted in this area to date.

Methods
Following ethical approval and a pilot study, all students (n=155) were invited to participate in a self-completed questionnaire (n=20 questions), distributed at a mandatory class. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests (Chi-squared and Mann Whitney U-test) were used for data analyses.

Results
The response rate was 99.4% (154/155). The majority (153/155) reported using OTC medicines; the key consideration during personal product selection was effectiveness. Most [96.1% (147/153)] were in agreement that safety was the over-riding concern during OTC consultations. While 96.1% (149/155) considered that using an evidence-based approach improved the quality of patient care, 68.0% (104/153) would be prepared to sell a product that lacks evidence of effectiveness, provided it would not cause harm.

Conclusions
The importance of evidence of effectiveness was acknowledged, yet many students in this study were prepared to recommend unproven products. Further strategies are required at QUB to ensure this routine consideration alongside safety in practice.

Comprehensive numerical modelling of the performance of a second harmonic generation stage coupled with a low-gain optical parametric amplifier

We present a comprehensive model for predicting the full performance of a second harmonic generation-optical parametric amplification system that aims at enhancing the temporal contrast of laser pulses. The model simultaneously takes into account all the main parameters at play in the system such as the group velocity mismatch, the beam divergence, the spectral content, the pump depletion, and the length of the nonlinear crystals. We monitor the influence of the initial parameters of the input pulse and the interdependence of the two related non-linear processes on the performance of the system and show its optimum configuration. The influence of the initial beam divergence on the spectral and the temporal characteristics of the generated pulse is discussed. In addition, we show that using a crystal slightly longer than the optimum length and introducing small delay between the seed and the pump ensures maximum efficiency and compensates for the spectral shift in the optical parametric amplification stage in case of chirped input pulse. As an example, calculations for bandwidth transform limited and chirped pulses of sub-picosecond duration in beta barium borate crystal are presented.