Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Business representation and the UK regions: mapping institutional change

Political devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are prompting changes in the organization of business interest representation within the devolved and decentralized territories. In this paper we seek to describe the realignment of business interest representation at the 'regional' scale, first through a detailed review of changes underway across specific business associations and representative fora, and secondly through an initial attempt to compare and 'map' the patterns of institutional change recorded in the various territories. In broad terms the overall scale, operation and degree of formalization of the new political arrangements for business representation tend broadly to reflect the established institutional and political contexts of the respective nations and regions and the level of devolution ceded to the territories. However, there are important variations in a complex process of uneven development. In the concluding section we present some initial thoughts on the nature of the changes observed in the institutional framework for business representation. A key argument is that to date such changes suggest a reconfiguration of business political activity rather than a step-change in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The photo-oxidation of water by sodium persulfate, and other electron acceptors, sensitised by TiO2

A number of different electron acceptors are tested for efficacy in the oxidation of water to oxygen, photocatalysed by titanium dioxide. The highly UV-absorbing metal ion electron acceptors, Ce4+ and Fe3+, appear ineffective at high concentration (10(-2) M), due to UV-screening, but more effective at lower concentrations (10(-3) M). The metal-depositing electron acceptor, Ag+, is initially effective, but loses activity upon prolonged irradiation due to metal deposition which promotes electron-hole recombination as well as UV-screening the titania particles. Most striking of the electron acceptors tested is persulfate, particularly in alkaline solution (0.1 M NaOH). The kinetics of the photo-oxidation of water by persulfate, photocatalysed by titania are studied as a function of pH, [S2O82-] and incident light intensity (I). The initial rate of water oxidation increases with pH, is directly proportional to the concentration of persulfate present and depends upon I-0.6. The TiO2/alkaline persulfate photosystem is robust and shows very little evidence of photochemical wear upon repeated irradiation. The results of this work are discussed with regard to previous work in this area and current mechanistic thinking. The formal quantum efficiency of the TiO2/alkaline persulfate photosystem was estimated as ca. 2%. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The anomaly in the candidate microlensing event PA-99-N2

The light curve of PA-99-N2, one of the recently announced microlensing candidates toward M31, shows small deviations from the standard Paczynski form. We explore a number of possible explanations, including correlations with the seeing, the parallax effect, and a binary lens. We find that the observations are consistent with an unresolved red giant branch or asymptotic giant branch star in M31 being microlensed by a binary lens. We find that the best-fit binary lens mass ratio is similar to1.2x10(-2), which is one of the most extreme values found for a binary lens so far. If both the source and lens lie in the M31 disk, then the standard M31 model predicts the probable mass range of the system to be 0.02-3.6 M-circle dot (95% confidence limit). In this scenario, the mass of the secondary component is therefore likely to be below the hydrogen-burning limit. On the other hand, if a compact halo object in M31 is lensing a disk or spheroid source, then the total lens mass is likely to lie between 0.09 and 32 M-circle dot, which is consistent with the primary being a stellar remnant and the secondary being a low-mass star or brown dwarf. The optical depth (or, alternatively, the differential rate) along the line of sight toward the event indicates that a halo lens is more likely than a stellar lens, provided that dark compact objects comprise no less than 15% (or 5%) of halos.

Weak interactions, omnivory and emergent food-web properties

Empirical studies have shown that, in real ecosystems, species-interaction strengths are generally skewed in their distribution towards weak interactions. Some theoretical work also suggests that weak interactions, especially in omnivorous links, are important for the local stability of a community at equilibrium. However, the majority of theoretical studies use uniform distributions of interaction strengths to generate artificial communities for study. We investigate the effects of the underlying interaction-strength distribution upon the return time, permanence and feasibility of simple Lotka-Volterra equilibrium communities. We show that a skew towards weak interactions promotes local and global stability only when omnivory is present. It is found that skewed interaction strengths are an emergent property of stable omnivorous communities, and that this skew towards weak interactions creates a dynamic constraint maintaining omnivory. Omnivory is more likely to occur when omnivorous interactions are skewed towards weak interactions. However, a skew towards weak interactions increases the return time to equilibrium, delays the recovery of ecosystems and hence decreases the stability of a community. When no skew is imposed, the set of stable omnivorous communities shows an emergent distribution of skewed interaction strengths. Our results apply to both local and global concepts of stability and are robust to the definition of a feasible community. These results are discussed in the light of empirical data and other theoretical studies, in conjunction with their broader implications for community assembly.

Synthesis of the putative structures of homopumiliotoxins 235C and 233F

A novel approach to diene based quinolizidines, using an intramolecular Heck reaction in which the vinyl bromide double bond undergoes inversion of configuration, is reported. These quinolizidines have previously been proposed as tentative structures for homopumiliotoxin alkaloids 233F and 235C. The mass spectral data of the synthetic materials were different to those of the natural products confirming that the original structures need to be revised. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A micromechanics approach for damage modeling of polymer matrix composites

A new model for damage evolution in polymer matrix composites is presented. The model is based on a combination of two constituent-level models and an interphase model. This approach reduces the number of empirical parameters since the two constituent- level models are formulated for isotropic materials, namely fiber and matrix. Decomposition of the state variables down to the micro-scale is accomplished by micromechanics. Phenomenological damage evolution models are then postulated for each constituent. Determination of material parameters is made from available experimental data. The required experimental data can be obtained with standard tests. Comparison between model predictions and additional experimental data is presented.

A randomized controlled trial using instant photography to diagnose and manage dermatology referrals

Fifteen percent of GP consultations are for dermatological conditions; 4% of these are referred to a dermatologist. There are long waiting lists for dermatology appointments. This study examines the value of instant photography in managing dermatology referrals.

Allelic variation at the A218C tryptophan hydroxylase polymorphism influences agitation and aggression in Alzheimer's disease

The behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia are common, distressing to carers, and directly linked to the requirement for institutional care. Symptoms of aggression and agitation are particularly difficult for carers to tolerate. The origin of these features is unclear although genetic and environmental modification of pre-frontal serotonergic circuitry which regulates the control of negative emotions is proposed. Following the suggestion that the A218C intronic polymorphism of the tryptophan hydroxylase gene influences aggression and anger in non-demented individuals, we tested the influence of A218C on symptoms of agitation/aggression in 396 Alzheimer's disease patients using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory. Overall, 50% of participants experienced agitation/aggression in the month prior to interview. It was observed that male patients with a history of agitation/aggression were more likely to possess C-containing genotypes (P = 0.044, OR = 1.65, CI = 0.98-2.76). We conclude that aggression in male subjects with Alzheimer's disease may be genetically linked to polymorphic variation at the tryptophan hydroxylase gene.

DemTect:a new, sensitive cognitive screening test to support the diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment and early dementia

To design a new, highly sensitive psychometric screening to identify patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with dementia in the early stages of the disease.