Reducing Parametric Uncertainty in Limit Cycle Oscillations

The assimilation of discrete higher fidelity data points with model predictions can be used to achieve a reduction in the uncertainty of the model input parameters which generate accurate predictions. The problem investigated here involves the prediction of limit-cycle oscillations using a High-Dimensional Harmonic Balance method (HDHB). The efficiency of the HDHB method is exploited to enable calibration of structural input parameters using a Bayesian inference technique. Markov-chain Monte Carlo is employed to sample the posterior distributions. Parameter estimation is carried out on both a pitch/plunge aerofoil and Goland wing configuration. In both cases significant refinement was achieved in the distribution of possible structural parameters allowing better predictions of their
true deterministic values.

Two-Stage Orthogonal Least Squares Methods for Neural Network Construction

A number of neural networks can be formulated as the linear-in-the-parameters models. Training such networks can be transformed to a model selection problem where a compact model is selected from all the candidates using subset selection algorithms. Forward selection methods are popular fast subset selection approaches. However, they may only produce suboptimal models and can be trapped into a local minimum. More recently, a two-stage fast recursive algorithm (TSFRA) combining forward selection and backward model refinement has been proposed to improve the compactness and generalization performance of the model. This paper proposes unified two-stage orthogonal least squares methods instead of the fast recursive-based methods. In contrast to the TSFRA, this paper derives a new simplified relationship between the forward and the backward stages to avoid repetitive computations using the inherent orthogonal properties of the least squares methods. Furthermore, a new term exchanging scheme for backward model refinement is introduced to reduce computational demand. Finally, given the error reduction ratio criterion, effective and efficient forward and backward subset selection procedures are proposed. Extensive examples are presented to demonstrate the improved model compactness constructed by the proposed technique in comparison with some popular methods.

Fulfilling the 3Rs: Galleria mellonella as an In Vivo Model to Assess the Antimicrobial Efficacy of Self-assembling Peptide Hydrogels

The concept of ‘The Three Rs’ (The 3Rs: reduction, refinement and replacement) is an important consideration in the development of alternatives to animal testing in medical research. Invertebrate models such as Galleria mellonella are advantageous both economically and ethically.1 Galleria have proven to be effective alternatives to assess the antimicrobial activity of novel therapeutics.2
In this study Galleria mellonella are validated and used as an in vivo infection model to determine the antimicrobial activity of a novel self-assembling antimicrobial peptide NapFFKK.3 The peptide was considered as being non-toxic to the Galleria with 100% survival 120 hours post inoculation with NapFFKK. Following inoculation with Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1, Escherichia coli ATCC 11303, Staphylococcus epidermidis ATCC 35984 and Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 6538, the highest concentration allowing survival was selected and used as the test inoculum. Haemolymph was extracted from inoculated and peptide treated Galleria at either 24 or 72 hours post-treatment. Reduction in bacterial load was determined in comparison to a positive control. Bacterial load was decreased in all treated Galleria with decreasing antimicrobial activity demonstrated with a decreased concentration of peptide (2- log cycle reduction achieved in Escherichia coli inoculated Galleria treated with 2% NapFFKK). The results are promising regarding the use of Galleria mellonella as an infection model and NapFFKK as an effective novel antimicrobial.

Revisiting Iris Marion Young on Normalisation, Inclusion and Democracy

Vieten's edited collection brings together papers that were given at the I M Young Memorial Symposium 'Inclusion and Democracy Revisited', held in Amsterdam in 2012. The different chapters presented explore in-depth, Young's models of a 'politics of cultural difference', and a 'politics of positional difference' read in combination with her critique of normalisation. Young regards the latter as decisive to any change for the better when reaching out politically to a fairer and more just democratic society.
With the current political, economic and socio-cultural crisis in mind, the contemporary world of global speed and transformed societies in and beyond Europe needs a refinement of what we understand 'normalisation' and 'difference' to be. How can we connect to each other, and in what ways can Young's 'structural inequality model' be applied to develop alternative outlooks on how to enhance inclusion and democracy in different nation states?

The use of patient experience survey data by out-of-hours primary care services: a qualitative interview study

Background English National Quality Requirements mandate out-of-hours primary care services to routinely audit patient experience, but do not state how it should be done.

Objectives We explored how providers collect patient feedback data and use it to inform service provision. We also explored staff views on the utility of out-of-hours questions from the English General Practice Patient Survey (GPPS).

Methods A qualitative study was conducted with 31 staff (comprising service managers, general practitioners and administrators) from 11 out-of-hours primary care providers in England, UK. Staff responsible for patient experience audits within their service were sampled and data collected via face-to-face semistructured interviews.

Results Although most providers regularly audited their patients’ experiences by using patient surveys, many participants expressed a strong preference for additional qualitative feedback. Staff provided examples of small changes to service delivery resulting from patient feedback, but service-wide changes were not instigated. Perceptions that patients lacked sufficient understanding of the urgent care system in which out-of-hours primary care services operate were common and a barrier to using feedback to enable change. Participants recognised the value of using patient experience feedback to benchmark services, but perceived weaknesses in the out-of-hours items from the GPPS led them to question the validity of using these data for benchmarking in its current form.

Conclusions The lack of clarity around how out-of-hours providers should audit patient experience hinders the utility of the National Quality Requirements. Although surveys were common, patient feedback data had only a limited role in service change. Data derived from the GPPS may be used to benchmark service providers, but refinement of the out-of-hours items is needed.

Realistic evaluation of EWS and ALERT: factors enabling and constraining implementation.

Realistic Evaluation of EWS and ALERT: factors enabling and constraining implementation Background The implementation of EWS and ALERT in practice is essential to the success of Rapid Response Systems but is dependent upon nurses utilising EWS protocols and applying ALERT best practice guidelines. To date there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of EWS or ALERT as research has primarily focused on measuring patient outcomes (cardiac arrests, ICU admissions) following the implementation of a Rapid Response Team. Complex interventions in healthcare aimed at changing service delivery and related behaviour of health professionals require a different research approach to evaluate the evidence. To understand how and why EWS and ALERT work, or might not work, research needs to consider the social, cultural and organisational influences that will impact on successful implementation in practice. This requires a research approach that considers both the processes and outcomes of complex interventions, such as EWS and ALERT, implemented in practice. Realistic Evaluation is such an approach and was used to explain the factors that enable and constrain the implementation of EWS and ALERT in practice [1]. Aim The aim of this study was to evaluate factors that enabled and constrained the implementation and service delivery of early warnings systems (EWS) and ALERT in practice in order to provide direction for enabling their success and sustainability. Methods The research design was a multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland. It followed the principles of realist evaluation research which allowed empirical data to be gathered to test and refine RRS programme theory. This approach used a variety of mixed methods to test the programme theories including individual and focus group interviews, observation and documentary analysis in a two stage process. A purposive sample of 75 key informants participated in individual and focus group interviews. Observation and documentary analysis of EWS compliance data and ALERT training records provided further evidence to support or refute the interview findings. Data was analysed using NVIVO8 to categorise interview findings and SPSS for ALERT documentary data. These findings were further synthesised by undertaking a within and cross case comparison to explain the factors enabling and constraining EWS and ALERT. Results A cross case analysis highlighted similarities, differences and factors enabling or constraining successful implementation across the case study sites. Findings showed that personal (confidence; clinical judgement; personality), social (ward leadership; communication), organisational (workload and staffing issues; pressure from managers to complete EWS audit and targets), educational (constraints on training; no clinical educator on ward) and cultural (routine task delegated) influences impact on EWS and acute care training outcomes. There were also differences noted between medical and surgical wards across both case sites. Conclusions Realist Evaluation allows refinement and development of the RRS programme theory to explain the realities of practice. These refined RRS programme theories are capable of informing the planning of future service provision and provide direction for enabling their success and sustainability. References: 1. McGaughey J, Blackwood B, O’Halloran P, Trinder T. J. & Porter S. (2010) A realistic evaluation of Track and Trigger systems and acute care training for early recognition and management of deteriorating ward–based patients. Journal of Advanced Nursing 66 (4), 923-932. Type of submission: Concurrent session Source of funding: Sandra Ryan Fellowship funded by the School of Nursing & Midwifery, Queen’s University of Belfast

Realist Evaluation: a theory driven approach.

Realistic Evaluation assumes that all programmes implemented in practice have an underlying theory to explain how a particular intervention is meant to work. The purpose of realist evaluation is to test the theoretical propositions underpinning the implementation of a programme in order to understand how and why it works, or might not work, in certain circumstances. The first stage of the realist evaluation is to track and articulate the programme theories to determine the evidence on the ‘official conjecture’ (Pawson et al 2004 pg 16) of how the programme is suppose to work in practice. These official conjectures are then tested and refined by gathering empirical evidence to establish causal relationships between a programme and its outcome. Evaluation of the factors and interactions between factors, supporting or hindering the implementation of a programme in practice facilitate theory refinement. Theory refinement is viewed as an iterative and cyclical process undertaken to synthesise the empirical evidence and develop mid-range theories which can be generalised and applied to other programmes to improve implementation and sustainability. In this symposium an example of realist evaluation used to test and refine the theory underpinning the implementation of Early Warning Systems (EWS) is provided to clarify how this theory driven approach can be applied in practice.

Disordered sleep and myopia risk among Chinese children

PURPOSE: Disordered sleep and myopia are increasingly prevalent among Chinese children. Similar pathways may be involved in regulation of both sleep cycles and eye growth. We therefore sought to examine the association between disordered sleep and myopia in this group. METHODS: Urban primary school children participating in a clinical trial on myopia and outdoor activity underwent automated cycloplegic refraction with subjective refinement. Parents answered questions about children's sleep duration, sleep disorders (Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire [CSHQ]), near work and time spent outdoors. RESULTS: Among 1970 children, 1902 (96.5%, mean [standard deviation SD] age 9.80 [0.44] years, 53.1% boys) completed refraction and questionnaires. Myopia < = -0.50 Diopters was present in both eyes of 588 (30.9%) children (1329/3804 = 34.9% of eyes) and 1129 children (59.4%) had abnormal CSHQ scores (> 41). In logistic regression models by eye, odds of myopia < = -0.50D increased with worse CSHQ score (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.01 per point, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] [1.001, 1.02], P = 0.014) and more night-time sleep (OR 1.02, 95% CI [1.01, 1.04, P = 0.002], while male sex (OR 0.82, 95% CI [0.70, 0.95], P = 0.008) and time outdoors (OR = 0.97, 95% CI [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.011) were associated with less myopia. The association between sleep duration and myopia was not significant (p = 0.199) for total (night + midday) sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Myopia and disordered sleep were both common in this cohort, but we did not find consistent evidence for an association between the two. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT00848900.

Accuracy of rural refractionists in western China

Purpose. We assessed the prevalence and predictors of inaccurate refractive error among rural refractionists in western China. Methods. A subset of primary school children with visual acuity (VA) ≤6/12 in ≥1 eye, undergoing subjective refinement by local refractionists after cycloplegic autorefraction in an ongoing population-based study, received repeat refraction by university optometrists for quality control. Results. Among 502 children (mean age 10.5 years, 53.2% girls), independent predictors of poor (inaccurate by ≥1.0 diopter [D]) refraction by 21 rural practitioners (66.7% with high school or lower education) included hyperopia (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4-7.3, P < 0.001), astigmatism (OR = 3.8; 95% CI, 2.5-5.6; P < 0.001) and VA uncorrectable to >6/12 by the rural refractionist (OR = 4.7; 95% CI, 3.1-7.3; P = < 0.001). Among 201 children whose vision was uncorrectable in ≥1 eye by the rural refractionists, vision could be improved to >6/12 by the university optometrist in 110 (54.7%). We estimate vision could be so improved in 9.1% of all children refracted by these rural refractionists. A reason for inaccuracy in this setting is the erroneous tendency of rural refractionists to adjust instrument values for accommodation, even under cycloplegia. Conclusions. Rural refractionists in western China have little formal training and frequently fail to optimize VA among children, even when autorefractors are used. Training is needed emphasizing better use of automated refraction, particularly in children with astigmatism and hyperopia. © 2014 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

Visual outcomes of cataract surgery performed by supervised novice surgeons during training in rural China

To assess the outcomes of cataract surgery performed by novice surgeons during training in a rural programme. Design: Retrospective study. Participants: Three hundred thirty-four patients operated by two trainees under supervision at rural Chinese county hospitals. Methods: Two trainees performed surgeries under supervision. Visual acuity, refraction and examinations were carried out 3 months postoperatively. Main Outcome Measures: Postoperative uncorrected visual acuity, pinhole visual acuity, causes of visual impairment (postoperative uncorrected visual acuity<6/18) Results: Among 518 operated patients, 426 (82.2%) could be contacted and 334 (64.4% of operated patients) completed the examinations. The mean age was 74.1±8.8 years and 62.9% were women. Postoperative uncorrected visual acuity was available in 372 eyes. Among them, uncorrected visual acuity was ≥6/18 in 278 eyes (74.7%) and <6/60 in 60 eyes (16.1%), and 323 eyes (86.8%) had pinhole visual acuity≥6/18 and 38 eyes (10.2%) had pinhole visual acuity<6/60. Main causes of visual impairment were uncorrected refractive error (63.9%) and comorbid eye disease (24.5%). Comorbid eye diseases associated with pinhole visual acuity<6/60 (n=23, 6.2%) included glaucoma, other optic nerve atrophy, vitreous haemorrhage and retinal detachment. Conclusions: The findings suggest that hands-on training remains safe and effective even when not implemented in centralized training centres. Further refinement of the training protocol, providing postoperative refractive services and more accurate preoperative intraocular lens calculations, can help optimize outcomes. © 2012 The Authors Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2012 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Corneal hysteresis and axial length among Chinese secondary school children: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study (X-PRES) report no. 4.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the association between corneal hysteresis and axial length/refractive error among rural Chinese secondary school children. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. METHODS: Refractive error (cycloplegic auto-refraction with subjective refinement), central corneal thickness (CCT) and axial length (ultrasonic measurement), intraocular pressure (IOP), and corneal hysteresis (Reichert Ocular Response Analyzer) were measured on a rural school-based cohort of children. RESULTS: Among 1,233 examined children, the mean age was 14.7 +/- 0.8 years and 699 (56.7%) were girls. The mean spherical equivalent (n = 1,232) was -2.2 +/- 1.6 diopters (D), axial length (n = 643) was 23.7 +/- 1.1 mm, corneal hysteresis (n = 1,153) was 10.7 +/- 1.6 mm Hg, IOP (n = 1,153) was 17.0 +/- 3.4 mm Hg, and CCT (n = 1,226) was 553 +/- 33 microns. In linear regression models, longer axial length was significantly (P < .001 for both) associated with lower corneal hysteresis and higher IOP. Hysteresis in this population was significantly (P < .001) lower than has previously been reported for normal White children (n = 42, 12.3 +/- 1.3 mm Hg), when adjusting for age and gender. This difference did not appear to depend on differences in axial length between the populations, as it persists when only Chinese children with normal uncorrected vision are included. CONCLUSIONS: Prospective studies will be needed to determine if low hysteresis places eyes at risk for axial elongation secondary or if primary elongation results in lower hysteresis.

Visual disability, visual function, and myopia among rural chinese secondary school children: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study (X-PRES)--report 1.

PURPOSE: To evaluate visual acuity, visual function, and prevalence of refractive error among Chinese secondary-school children in a cross-sectional school-based study. METHODS: Uncorrected, presenting, and best corrected visual acuity, cycloplegic autorefraction with refinement, and self-reported visual function were assessed in a random, cluster sample of rural secondary school students in Xichang, China. RESULTS: Among the 1892 subjects (97.3% of the consenting children, 84.7% of the total sample), mean age was 14.7 +/- 0.8 years, 51.2% were female, and 26.4% were wearing glasses. The proportion of children with uncorrected, presenting, and corrected visual disability (< or = 6/12 in the better eye) was 41.2%, 19.3%, and 0.5%, respectively. Myopia < -0.5, < -2.0, and < -6.0 D in both eyes was present in 62.3%, 31.1%, and 1.9% of the subjects, respectively. Among the children with visual disability when tested without correction, 98.7% was due to refractive error, while only 53.8% (414/770) of these children had appropriate correction. The girls had significantly (P < 0.001) more presenting visual disability and myopia < -2.0 D than did the boys. More myopic refractive error was associated with worse self-reported visual function (ANOVA trend test, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Visual disability in this population was common, highly correctable, and frequently uncorrected. The impact of refractive error on self-reported visual function was significant. Strategies and studies to understand and remove barriers to spectacle wear are needed.

Height, stunting, and refractive error among rural Chinese schoolchildren: the See Well to Learn Well project.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the hypothesis that changes in nutritional status could be partly responsible for observed increases in myopia prevalence among Chinese children. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. METHODS: Rural Chinese secondary school children participating in a study of interventions to promote spectacle use were randomly sampled (20% of children with uncorrected vision >6/12 bilaterally, and 100% of remaining children) and underwent cycloplegic refraction with subjective refinement and measurement of height and weight. Stunting was defined according to the World Health Organization standard population. RESULTS: Among 3226 children in the sample, 2905 (90.0%) took part. Among 1477 children undergoing refraction, 1371 (92.8%) had height and weight measurements. These children had a mean age of 14.5 +/- 1.4 years, 59.8% were girls, and mean spherical equivalent refraction was -1.93 +/- 1.82 diopters. Stunting was present in 87 children (6.4%). While height was inversely associated with refractive error (RE) (taller children were more myopic) among boys (r = -0.147, P = .001), this disappeared when adjusting for age, and no such association was observed among girls. Neither girls nor boys with stunting differed significantly in refraction from children without stunting, and neither stunting nor height was associated with RE when adjusting for age, height, and parental education. The power of this study to have detected a 0.75 diopters difference in RE between children with and without stunting was 0.96. CONCLUSION: Results from this cross-sectional study are not consistent with the hypothesis that nutritional status is a determinant of RE in this setting.