Inference in Credal Networks Through Integer Programming

A credal network associates a directed acyclic graph with a collection of sets of probability measures; it offers a compact representation for sets of multivariate distributions. In this paper we present a new algorithm for inference in credal networks based on an integer programming reformulation. We are concerned with computation of lower/upper probabilities for a variable in a given credal network. Experiments reported in this paper indicate that this new algorithm has better performance than existing ones for some important classes of networks.

The Inferential Complexity of Bayesian and Credal Networks

This paper presents new results on the complexity of graph-theoretical models that represent probabilities (Bayesian networks) and that represent interval and set valued probabilities (credal networks). We define a new class of networks with bounded width, and introduce a new decision problem for Bayesian networks, the maximin a posteriori. We present new links between the Bayesian and credal networks, and present new results both for Bayesian networks (most probable explanation with observations, maximin a posteriori) and for credal networks (bounds on probabilities a posteriori, most probable explanation with and without observations, maximum a posteriori).

Propositional and Relational Bayesian Networks Associated with Imprecise and Qualitative Probabilistic Assessments

This paper investigates a representation language with flexibility inspired by probabilistic logic and compactness inspired by relational Bayesian networks. The goal is to handle propositional and first-order constructs together with precise, imprecise, indeterminate and qualitative probabilistic assessments. The paper shows how this can be achieved through the theory of credal networks. New exact and approximate inference algorithms based on multilinear programming and iterated/loopy propagation of interval probabilities are presented; their superior performance, compared to existing ones, is shown empirically.

Inference in credal networks using multilinear programming

A credal network is a graphical tool for representation and manipulation of uncertainty, where probability values may be imprecise or indeterminate. A credal network associates a directed acyclic graph with a collection of sets of probability measures; in this context, inference is the computation of tight lower and upper bounds for conditional probabilities. In this paper we present new algorithms for inference in credal networks based on multilinear programming techniques. Experiments indicate that these new algorithms have better performance than existing ones, in the sense that they can produce more accurate results in larger networks.

Rapid detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection in critical care using multipathogen real-time polymerase chain reaction technology: a diagnostic accuracy study and systematic review

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast (Roche Diagnostics GmBH, Mannheim, Germany) is a multipathogen probe-based system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection. As background to this study, we report a systematic review of Phase III diagnostic accuracy studies of SeptiFast, which reveals uncertainty about its likely clinical utility based on widespread evidence of deficiencies in study design and reporting with a high risk of bias. 

Objective: Determine the accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR for the detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection, against standard microbiological culture. 

Design: Prospective multicentre Phase III clinical diagnostic accuracy study using the standards for the reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies criteria. 

Setting: Critical care departments within NHS hospitals in the north-west of England. 

Participants: Adult patients requiring blood culture (BC) when developing new signs of systemic inflammation. 

Main outcome measures: SeptiFast real-time PCR results at species/genus level compared with microbiological culture in association with independent adjudication of infection. Metrics of diagnostic accuracy were derived including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values, with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Latent class analysis was used to explore the diagnostic performance of culture as a reference standard. 

Results: Of 1006 new patient episodes of systemic inflammation in 853 patients, 922 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and provided sufficient information for analysis. Index test assay failure occurred on 69 (7%) occasions. Adult patients had been exposed to a median of 8 days (interquartile range 4–16 days) of hospital care, had high levels of organ support activities and recent antibiotic exposure. SeptiFast real-time PCR, when compared with culture-proven bloodstream infection at species/genus level, had better specificity (85.8%, 95% CI 83.3% to 88.1%) than sensitivity (50%, 95% CI 39.1% to 60.8%). When compared with pooled diagnostic metrics derived from our systematic review, our clinical study revealed lower test accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR, mainly as a result of low diagnostic sensitivity. There was a low prevalence of BC-proven pathogens in these patients (9.2%, 95% CI 7.4% to 11.2%) such that the post-test probabilities of both a positive (26.3%, 95% CI 19.8% to 33.7%) and a negative SeptiFast test (5.6%, 95% CI 4.1% to 7.4%) indicate the potential limitations of this technology in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, latent class analysis indicates that BC has a low sensitivity, questioning its relevance as a reference test in this setting. Using this analysis approach, the sensitivity of the SeptiFast test was low but also appeared significantly better than BC. Blood samples identified as positive by either culture or SeptiFast real-time PCR were associated with a high probability (> 95%) of infection, indicating higher diagnostic rule-in utility than was apparent using conventional analyses of diagnostic accuracy. 

Conclusion: SeptiFast real-time PCR on blood samples may have rapid rule-in utility for the diagnosis of health-care-associated bloodstream infection but the lack of sensitivity is a significant limiting factor. Innovations aimed at improved diagnostic sensitivity of real-time PCR in this setting are urgently required. Future work recommendations include technology developments to improve the efficiency of pathogen DNA extraction and the capacity to detect a much broader range of pathogens and drug resistance genes and the application of new statistical approaches able to more reliably assess test performance in situation where the reference standard (e.g. blood culture in the setting of high antimicrobial use) is prone to error.

Towards a general framework for information fusion

Depending on the representation setting, different combination rules have been proposed for fusing information from distinct sources. Moreover in each setting, different sets of axioms that combination rules should satisfy have been advocated, thus justifying the existence of alternative rules (usually motivated by situations where the behavior of other rules was found unsatisfactory). These sets of axioms are usually purely considered in their own settings, without in-depth analysis of common properties essential for all the settings. This paper introduces core properties that, once properly instantiated, are meaningful in different representation settings ranging from logic to imprecise probabilities. The following representation settings are especially considered: classical set representation, possibility theory, and evidence theory, the latter encompassing the two other ones as special cases. This unified discussion of combination rules across different settings is expected to provide a fresh look on some old but basic issues in information fusion.

The impact of accretion disc winds on the optical spectra of cataclysmic variables

Many high-state non-magnetic cataclysmic variables (CVs) exhibit blueshifted absorption or P-Cygni profiles associated with ultraviolet (UV) resonance lines. These features imply the existence of powerful accretion disc winds in CVs. Here, we use our Monte Carlo ionization and radiative transfer code to investigate whether disc wind models that produce realistic UV line profiles are also likely to generate observationally significant recombination line and continuum emission in the optical waveband. We also test whether outflows may be responsible for the single-peaked emission line profiles often seen in high-state CVs and for the weakness of the Balmer absorption edge (relative to simple models of optically thick accretion discs). We find that a standard disc wind model that is successful in reproducing the UV spectra of CVs also leaves a noticeable imprint on the optical spectrum, particularly for systems viewed at high inclination. The strongest optical wind-formed recombination lines are H alpha and He ii lambda 4686. We demonstrate that a higher density outflow model produces all the expected H and He lines and produces a recombination continuum that can fill in the Balmer jump at high inclinations. This model displays reasonable verisimilitude with the optical spectrum of RW Trianguli. No single-peaked emission is seen, although we observe a narrowing of the double-peaked emission lines from the base of the wind. Finally, we show that even denser models can produce a single-peaked H alpha line. On the basis of our results, we suggest that winds can modify, and perhaps even dominate, the line and continuum emission from CVs.

The Robustness of Periodic Orchestrations in Uncertain Evolving Environments

A framework for assessing the robustness of long-duration repetitive orchestrations in uncertain evolving environments is proposed. The model assumes that service-based evaluation environments are stable over short time-frames only; over longer periods service-based environments evolve as demand fluctuates and contention for shared resources varies. The behaviour of a short-duration orchestration E in a stable environment is assessed by an uncertainty profile U and a corresponding zero-sum angel-daemon game Γ(U) [2]. Here the angel-daemon approach is extended to assess evolving environments by means of a subfamily of stochastic games. These games are called strategy oblivious because their transition probabilities are strategy independent. It is shown that the value of a strategy oblivious stochastic game is well defined and that it can be computed by solving a linear system. Finally, the proposed stochastic framework is used to assess the evolution of the Gabrmn IT system.

Impact of average household income and damage exposure on post-earthquake distress and functioning: A community study following the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake.

Post-traumatic stress, depression and anxiety symptoms are common outcomes following earthquakes, and may persist for months and years. This study systematically examined the impact of neighbourhood damage exposure and average household income on psychological distress and functioning in 600 residents of Christchurch, New Zealand, 4–6 months after the fatal February, 2011 earthquake. Participants were from highly affected and relatively unaffected suburbs in low, medium and high average household income areas. The assessment battery included the Acute Stress Disorder Scale, the depression module of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7), along with single item measures of substance use, earthquake damage and impact, and disruptions in daily life and relationship functioning. Controlling for age, gender and social isolation, participants from low income areas were more likely to meet diagnostic cut-offs for depression and anxiety, and have more severe anxiety symptoms. Higher probabilities of acute stress, depression and anxiety diagnoses were evident in affected versus unaffected areas, and those in affected areas had more severe acute stress, depression and anxiety symptoms. An interaction between income and earthquake effect was found for depression, with those from the low and medium income affected suburbs more depressed. Those from low income areas were more likely, post-earthquake, to start psychiatric medication and increase smoking. There was a uniform increase in alcohol use across participants. Those from the low income affected suburb had greater general and relationship disruption post-quake. Average household income and damage exposure made unique contributions to earthquake-related distress and dysfunction.

New source of MeV negative ion and neutral atom beams

The scenario of "electron-capture and -loss" was recently proposed for the formation of negative ion and neutral atom beams with MeV kinetic energies. However, it does not explain why the formation of negative ions in a liquid spray is much more efficient than with an isolated atom. The role of atomic excited states in the charge-exchange processes is considered, and it is shown that it cannot account for the observed phenomena. The processes are more complex than the single electron-capture and -loss approach. It is suggested that the shell effects in the electronic structure of the projectile ion and/or target atoms may influence the capture/loss probabilities.

Anytime Algorithms for Solving Possibilistic MDPs and Hybrid MDPs

The ability of an agent to make quick, rational decisions in an uncertain environment is paramount for its applicability in realistic settings. Markov Decision Processes (MDP) provide such a framework, but can only model uncertainty that can be expressed as probabilities. Possibilistic counterparts of MDPs allow to model imprecise beliefs, yet they cannot accurately represent probabilistic sources of uncertainty and they lack the efficient online solvers found in the probabilistic MDP community. In this paper we advance the state of the art in three important ways. Firstly, we propose the first online planner for possibilistic MDP by adapting the Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm. A key component is the development of efficient search structures to sample possibility distributions based on the DPY transformation as introduced by Dubois, Prade, and Yager. Secondly, we introduce a hybrid MDP model that allows us to express both possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainty, where the hybrid model is a proper extension of both probabilistic and possibilistic MDPs. Thirdly, we demonstrate that MCTS algorithms can readily be applied to solve such hybrid models.

The Complexity of MAP Inference in Bayesian Networks Specified Through Logical Languages

We study the computational complexity of finding maximum a posteriori configurations in Bayesian networks whose probabilities are specified by logical formulas. This approach leads to a fine grained study in which local information such as context-sensitive independence and determinism can be considered. It also allows us to characterize more precisely the jump from tractability to NP-hardness and beyond, and to consider the complexity introduced by evidence alone.

Approximating Credal Network Inferences by Linear Programming

An algorithm for approximate credal network updating is presented. The problem in its general formulation is a multilinear optimization task, which can be linearized by an appropriate rule for fixing all the local models apart from those of a single variable. This simple idea can be iterated and quickly leads to very accurate inferences. The approach can also be specialized to classification with credal networks based on the maximality criterion. A complexity analysis for both the problem and the algorithm is reported together with numerical experiments, which confirm the good performance of the method. While the inner approximation produced by the algorithm gives rise to a classifier which might return a subset of the optimal class set, preliminary empirical results suggest that the accuracy of the optimal class set is seldom affected by the approximate probabilities

Exploiting Direct Links for Physical Layer Security in Multi-User Multi-Relay Networks

We present two physical layer secure transmission schemes for multi-user multi-relay networks, where the communication from M users to the base station is assisted by direct links and by N decode-and-forward relays. In this network, we consider that a passive eavesdropper exists to overhear the transmitted information, which entails exploiting the advantages of both direct and relay links for physical layer security enhancement. To fulfill this requirement, we investigate two criteria for user and relay selection and examine the achievable secrecy performance. Criterion I performs a joint user and relay selection, while Criterion II performs separate user and relay selections, with a lower implementation complexity. We derive a tight lower bound on the secrecy outage probability for Criterion I and an accurate analytical expression for the secrecy outage probability for Criterion II. We further derive the asymptotic secrecy outage probabilities at high transmit signal-to-noise ratios and high main-to-eavesdropper ratios for both criteria. We demonstrate that the secrecy diversity order is min (MN, M + N) for Criterion I, and N for Criterion II. Finally, we present numerical and simulation results to validate the proposed analysis, and show the occurrence condition of the secrecy outage probability floor