WHO guidelines for a healthy diet and mortality from cardiovascular disease in European and American elderly: the CHANCES project

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents a leading cause of mortality worldwide, especially in the elderly. Lowering the number of CVD deaths requires preventive strategies targeted on the elderly.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to generate evidence on the association between WHO dietary recommendations and mortality from CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly aged ≥60 y.

DESIGN: We analyzed data from 10 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States comprising a total sample of 281,874 men and women free from chronic diseases at baseline. Components of the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) included saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and fruit and vegetables. Cohort-specific HRs adjusted for sex, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy and alcohol intakes were pooled by using a random-effects model.

RESULTS: During 3,322,768 person-years of follow-up, 12,492 people died of CVD. An increase of 10 HDI points (complete adherence to an additional WHO guideline) was, on average, not associated with CVD mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.03), CAD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.14), or stroke mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03). However, after stratification of the data by geographic region, adherence to the HDI was associated with reduced CVD mortality in the southern European cohorts (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96; I(2) = 0%) and in the US cohort (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87; I(2) = not applicable).

CONCLUSION: Overall, greater adherence to the WHO dietary guidelines was not significantly associated with CVD mortality, but the results varied across regions. Clear inverse associations were observed in elderly populations in southern Europe and the United States.

A Simplified Method for Ductility Calculation in RC Jacketed Columns

Reinforced concrete (RC) jacketing is a common method to retrofit existing columns with poor structural performance. It can be applied in two different ways: if the continuity of the jacket is ensured, the axial load of the column can be transferred to the jacket, which will be directly loaded; conversely, if no continuity is provided, the jacket induces only confinement action. In both cases the strength and ductility evaluation is rather complex, due to the different physical phenomena included, such as confinement, composite action core-jacket, preload, buckling of longitudinal bars.
Although different theoretical studies have been carried out to calculate the confinement effects, a practical approach to evaluate the flexural capacity and ductility is still missing. The calculation of these quantities is often related to the use of commercial computer programs, taking advantage of numerical methods such as fiber method or finite element method.
This paper presents a simplified approach to calculate the flexural strength and ductility of square RC jacketed sections subjected to axial load and bending moment. In particular the proposed approach is based on the calibration of the stress-block parameters including the confinement effect. Equilibrium equations are determined and buckling of longitudinal bars is modeled with a suitable stress-strain law. Moment-curvature curves are derived with simple calculations. Finally, comparisons are made with numerical analyses carried out with the code OpenSees and with experimental data available in the literature, showing good agreement.

Adiposity as a cause of cardiovascular disease: a Mendelian randomization study

Background: Adiposity, as indicated by body mass index (BMI), has been associated with risk of cardiovascular diseases in epidemiological studies. We aimed to investigate if these associations are causal, using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods.

Methods: The associations of BMI with cardiovascular outcomes [coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure and ischaemic stroke], and associations of a genetic score (32 BMI single nucleotide polymorphisms) with BMI and cardiovascular outcomes were examined in up to 22 193 individuals with 3062 incident cardiovascular events from nine prospective follow-up studies within the ENGAGE consortium. We used random-effects meta-analysis in an MR framework to provide causal estimates of the effect of adiposity on cardiovascular outcomes.

Results: There was a strong association between BMI and incident CHD (HR = 1.20 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–1.28, P = 1.9·10−7), heart failure (HR = 1.47, 95% CI, 1.35–1.60, P = 9·10−19) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.15, 95% CI, 1.06–1.24, P = 0.0008) in observational analyses. The genetic score was robustly associated with BMI (β = 0.030 SD-increase of BMI per additional allele, 95% CI, 0.028–0.033, P = 3·10−107). Analyses indicated a causal effect of adiposity on development of heart failure (HR = 1.93 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–3.30, P = 0.017) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.83, 95% CI, 1.05–3.20, P = 0.034). Additional cross-sectional analyses using both ENGAGE and CARDIoGRAMplusC4D data showed a causal effect of adiposity on CHD.

Conclusions: Using MR methods, we provide support for the hypothesis that adiposity causes CHD, heart failure and, previously not demonstrated, ischaemic stroke.

Evolving techniques for characterising and monitoring the stability of infrastructure slopes

Landslides and debris flows, commonly triggered by rainfall, pose a geotechnical risk causing disruption to transport routes and incur significant financial expenditure. With infrastructure maintenance budgets becoming ever more constrained, this paper provides an overview of some of the developing methods being implemented by Queen’s University, Belfast in collaboration with the Department for Regional Development to monitor the stability of two distinctly different infrastructure slopes in Northern Ireland. In addition to the traditional, intrusive ground investigative and laboratory testing methods, aerial LiDAR, terrestrial LiDAR, geophysical techniques and differential Global Positioning Systems have been used to monitor slope stability. Finally, a comparison between terrestrial LiDAR, pore water pressure and soil moisture deficit (SMD) is presented to outline the processes for a more informed management regime and to highlight the season relationship between landslide activity and the aforementioned parameters.

Estimation of the small strain stiffness of glacial till using geophysical methods and barometric loading response

Stiffness values in geotechnical structures can range over many orders of magnitude for relatively small operational strains. The typical strain levels where soil stiffness changes most dramatically is in the range 0.01-0.1%, however soils do not exhibit linear stress-strain behaviour at small strains. Knowledge of the in situ stiffness at small strain is important in geotechnical numerical modelling and design. The stress-strain regime of cut slopes is complex, as we have different principle stress directions at different positions along the potential failure plane. For example, loading may be primarily in extension near the toe of the slope, while compressive loading is predominant at the crest of a slope. Cuttings in heavily overconsolidated clays are known to be susceptible to progressive failure and subsequent strain softening, in which progressive yielding propagates from the toe towards the crest of the slope over time. In order to gain a better understanding of the rate of softening it would be advantageous to measure changes in small strain stiffness in the field.

The timing and spatiotemporal patterning of Neanderthal disappearance

ThetimingofNeanderthal disappearanceandtheextent to whichthey overlapped with the earliest incoming anatomically modern humans (AMHs)inEurasia arekey questions inpalaeoanthropology1,2 .Deter- mining the spatiotemporal relationship between the two populations is crucial if we are to understand the processes, timing and reasons leading to the disappearance of Neanderthals and the likelihood of cultural and genetic exchange. Serious technical challenges, however, havehinderedreliable datingof the period,as theradiocarbonmethod reaches its limit at 50,000 years ago3 .Herewe apply improved accel- erator mass spectrometry 14C techniques to construct robust chro- nologies from 40 key Mousterian and Neanderthal archaeological sites, ranging fromRussia toSpain.Bayesianagemodellingwas used togenerate probability distributionfunctions todetermine the latest appearancedate.Weshowthat theMousterianendedby41,030–39,260 calibratedyears BP(at95.4%probability) acrossEurope.Wealsodem- onstrate that succeeding ‘transitional’ archaeological industries, one ofwhich has beenlinked withNeanderthals (Cha ˆtelperronian)4 ,end at a similar time. Our data indicate that the disappearance of Nean- derthals occurred at different times in different regions.Comparing the data with results obtained fromthe earliest datedAMHsites in Europe, associated with the Uluzzian technocomplex5 , allows us to quantify the temporal overlap between the two human groups. The results revealasignificantoverlap of 2,600–5,400years (at 95.4%prob- ability).This hasimportant implications formodels seeking toexplain the cultural, technological and biological elements involved in the replacement of Neanderthals byAMHs.Amosaic of populations in Europe during the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition suggests that there was ample time for the transmission of cultural and sym- bolic behaviours, as well as possible genetic exchanges, between the two groups.

SN 2011dh: DISCOVERY OF A TYPE IIb SUPERNOVA FROM A COMPACT PROGENITOR IN THE NEARBY GALAXY M51

On 2011 May 31 UT a supernova (SN) exploded in the nearby galaxy M51 (the Whirlpool Galaxy). We discovered this event using small telescopes equipped with CCD cameras and also detected it with the Palomar Transient Factory survey, rapidly confirming it to be a Type II SN. Here, we present multi-color ultraviolet through infrared photometry which is used to calculate the bolometric luminosity and a series of spectra. Our early-time observations indicate that SN 2011dh resulted from the explosion of a relatively compact progenitor star. Rapid shock-breakout cooling leads to relatively low temperatures in early-time spectra, compared to explosions of red supergiant stars, as well as a rapid early light curve decline. Optical spectra of SN 2011dh are dominated by H lines out to day 10 after explosion, after which He I lines develop. This SN is likely a member of the cIIb (compact IIb) class, with progenitor radius larger than that of SN 2008ax and smaller than the eIIb (extended IIb) SN 1993J progenitor. Our data imply that the object identified in pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope images at the SN location is possibly a companion to the progenitor or a blended source, and not the progenitor star itself, as its radius (~1013 cm) would be highly inconsistent with constraints from our post-explosion spectra.

Analysis of the early-time optical spectra of SN 2011fe in M101

The nearby Type Ia supernova SN 2011fe in M101 (cz=241 km s^-1) provides a unique opportunity to study the early evolution of a "normal" Type Ia supernova, its compositional structure, and its elusive progenitor system. We present 18 high signal-to-noise spectra of SN 2011fe during its first month beginning 1.2 days post-explosion and with an average cadence of 1.8 days. This gives a clear picture of how various line-forming species are distributed within the outer layers of the ejecta, including that of unburned material (C+O). We follow the evolution of C II absorption features until they diminish near maximum light, showing overlapping regions of burned and unburned material between ejection velocities of 10,000 and 16,000 km s^-1. This supports the notion that incomplete burning, in addition to progenitor scenarios, is a relevant source of spectroscopic diversity among SNe Ia. The observed evolution of the highly Doppler-shifted O I 7774 absorption features detected within five days post-explosion indicate the presence of O I with expansion velocities from 11,500 to 21,000 km s^-1. The fact that some O I is present above C II suggests that SN 2011fe may have had an appreciable amount of unburned oxygen within the outer layers of the ejecta.

Time-lapse monitoring of climate effects on earthworks using surface waves

The UK’s transportation network is supported by critical geotechnical assets (cuttings/embankments/dams) that require sustainable, cost-effective management, while maintaining an appropriate service level to meet social, economic, and environmental needs. Recent effects of extreme weather on these geotechnical assets have highlighted their vulnerability to climate variations. We have assessed the potential of surface wave data to portray the climate-related variations in mechanical properties of a clay-filled railway embankment. Seismic data were acquired bimonthly from July 2013 to November 2014 along the crest of a heritage railway embankment in southwest England. For each acquisition, the collected data were first processed to obtain a set of Rayleigh-wave dispersion and attenuation curves, referenced to the same spatial locations. These data were then analyzed to identify a coherent trend in their spatial and temporal variability. The relevance of the observed temporal variations was also verified with respect to the experimental data uncertainties. Finally, the surface wave dispersion data sets were inverted to reconstruct a time-lapse model of S-wave velocity for the embankment structure, using a least-squares laterally constrained inversion scheme. A key point of the inversion process was constituted by the estimation of a suitable initial model and the selection of adequate levels of spatial regularization. The initial model and the strength of spatial smoothing were then kept constant throughout the processing of all available data sets to ensure homogeneity of the procedure and comparability among the obtained VS sections. A continuous and coherent temporal pattern of surface wave data, and consequently of the reconstructed VS models, was identified. This pattern is related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil water content measured on site.

Time-lapse monitoring of fluid induced geophysical property variations within an unstable earthwork using P-wave refraction

A significant portion of the UK’s transportation system relies on a network of geotechnical earthworks (cuttings and embankments) that were constructed more than 100 years ago, whose stability is affected by the change in precipitation patterns experienced over the past few decades. The vulnerability of these structures requires a reliable, cost- and time-effective monitoring of their geomechanical condition. We have assessed the potential application of P-wave refraction for tracking the seasonal variations of seismic properties within an aged clay-filled railway embankment, located in southwest England. Seismic data were acquired repeatedly along the crest of the earthwork at regular time intervals, for a total period of 16 months. P-wave first-break times were picked from all available recorded traces, to obtain a set of hodocrones referenced to the same spatial locations, for various dates along the surveyed period of time. Traveltimes extracted from each acquisition were then compared to track the pattern of their temporal variability. The relevance of such variations over time was compared with the data experimental uncertainty. The multiple set of hodocrones was subsequently inverted using a tomographic approach, to retrieve a time-lapse model of VPVP for the embankment structure. To directly compare the reconstructed VPVP sections, identical initial models and spatial regularization were used for the inversion of all available data sets. A consistent temporal trend for P-wave traveltimes, and consequently for the reconstructed VPVP models, was identified. This pattern could be related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil-water content measured on site.

Time-lapse Monitoring of the Slopes of a Heritage Earthwork by Means of Near-surface Seismic Techniques

A significant portion of UK’s infrastructures earthworks was built more than 100 years ago, without modern construction standards: poor maintenance and the change of precipitations pattern experienced in the past decades are currently compromising their stability, leading to an increasing number of failures. To address the need for a reliable and time-efficient monitoring of earthworks at risk of failure we propose here the use of two established seismic techniques for the characterization of the near surface, MASW and P-wave refraction. We have regularly collected MASW and P-wave refraction data, from March 2014 to February 2015, along 4 reduced-scale seismic lines located on the flanks of a heritage railway embankment located in Broadway, SW of England. We have observed a definite temporal variability in terms of phase velocities of SW dispersion curves and of P-wave travel times. The accurate choice of ad-hoc inversion strategies has allowed to reconstruct reliable VP and VS models through which it is potentially possible to track the temporal variations of geo-mechanical properties of the embankment slopes. The variability over time of seismic data and seismic velocities seems to correlate well with rainfall data recorded in the days immediately preceding the date of acquisition.