Putting a Price on Prisoner Release: The History of Bail and the Future of Parole

In this article, we argue that the history of bail foretells the future of parole. Under a plancalled the Conditional Post-Conviction Release Bond Act (recently passed into law inthree states), US prisoners can secure early release only after posting ‘post-convictionbail’. As with pre-trial bail, the fledgling model would require prisoners to pay a percent-age of the bail amount to secure their release under the contractual responsibility of acommercial bail agency. If release conditions are breached, bounty hunters are legallyempowered to seize and return the parolee to prison. Our inquiry outlines the origins of this post-conviction bond plan and the research upon which it is based. Drawing on the‘new penology’ framework, we identify several underlying factors that make for a ripeadvocacy environment and set the stage for widespread state-level adoption of this planin the near future. Post-conviction bail fits squarely within the growing policy trendstoward privatization, managerialism, and actuarial justice. Most importantly, though,advocates have the benefit of precedent on their side, as most US states have longrelied on a system of commercial bail bonding and private bounty hunting to manageconditional pretrial release.

Validation of fixed speed induction generator models for inertial response using wind farm measurements

This paper outlines the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) records to validate models of fixed speed induction generator (FSIG)-based wind farms during frequency transients. Wind turbine manufacturers usually create their own proprietary models which they can supply to power system utilities for stability studies, subject to confidentiality agreements. However, it is desirable to confirm the accuracy of supplied models with measurements from the particular installation, in order to assess their validity under real field conditions. This is prudent due to possible changes in control algorithms and design retrofits, not accurately reflected or omitted in the supplied model. One important aspect of such models, especially for smaller power systems with limited inertia, is their accuracy during system frequency transients. This paper, therefore, assesses the accuracy of FSIG models with regard to frequency stability, and hence validates a subset of the model dynamics. Such models can then be used with confidence to assess wider system stability implications. The measured and simulated response of a wind farm using doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) technology is also assessed.

No Evidence that Extended Tracts of Homozygosity are Associated with Alzheimer’s Disease.

We sought to investigate the contribution of extended runs of homozygosity in a genome-wide association dataset of 1,955 Alzheimer's disease cases and 955 elderly screened controls genotyped for 529,205 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms. Tracts of homozygosity may mark regions inherited from a common ancestor and could reflect disease loci if observed more frequently in cases than controls. We found no excess of homozygous tracts in Alzheimer's disease cases compared to controls and no individual run of homozygosity showed association to Alzheimer's disease.

Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process

Radiocarbon dating is routinely used in paleoecology to build chronolo- gies of lake and peat sediments, aiming at inferring a model that would relate the sediment depth with its age. We present a new approach for chronology building (called “Bacon”) that has received enthusiastic attention by paleoecologists. Our methodology is based on controlling core accumulation rates using a gamma autoregressive semiparametric model with an arbitrary number of subdivisions along the sediment. Using prior knowledge about accumulation rates is crucial and informative priors are routinely used. Since many sediment cores are currently analyzed, using different data sets and prior distributions, a robust (adaptive) MCMC is very useful. We use the t-walk (Christen and Fox, 2010), a self adjusting, robust MCMC sampling algorithm, that works acceptably well in many situations. Outliers are also addressed using a recent approach that considers a Student-t model for radiocarbon data. Two examples are presented here, that of a peat core and a core from a lake, and our results are compared with other approaches.

Distance limits to intermediate- and high-velocity clouds

We present optical spectra of 403 stars and quasi-stellar objects in order to obtain distance limits towards intermediate- and high-velocity clouds (IHVCs), including new Fibre-fed Extended Range Optical Spectrograph (FEROS) observations plus archival ELODIE, FEROS, High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRES) and Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) data. The non-detection of Ca II K interstellar (IS) absorption at a velocity of −130 to −60 km s−1 towards HDE 248894 (d ∼ 3 kpc) and HDE 256725 (d ∼ 8 kpc) in data at signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) > 450 provides a new firm lower distance limit of 8 kpc for the anti-centre shell HVC. Similarly, the non-detection of Ca II K IS absorption towards HD 86248 at S/N ∼ 500 places a lower distance limit of 7.6 kpc for Complex EP, unsurprising since this feature is probably related to the Magellanic System. The lack of detection of Na I D at S/N = 35 towards Mrk 595 puts an improved upper limit for the Na I column density of log (NNaD <) 10.95 cm−2 towards this part of the Cohen Stream where Ca II was detected by Wakker et al. Absorption at ∼ −40 km s−1 is detected in Na I D towards the Galactic star PG 0039+049 at S/N = 75, placing a firm upper distance limit of 1 kpc for the intermediate-velocity cloud south (IVS), where a tentative detection had previously been obtained by Centurion et al. Ca ´ II K and Na I D absorption is detected at −53 km s−1 towards HD 93521, which confirms the upper distance limit of 2.4 kpc for part of the IV arch complex obtained using the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) data by Danly. Towards HD 216411 in Complex H a non-detection in Na D towards gas with log(NH I) = 20.69 cm−2 puts a lower distance limit of 6.6 kpc towards this HVC complex. Additionally, Na I D absorption is detected at −43.7 km s−1 in the star HD 218915 at a distance of 5.0 kpc in gas in the same region of the sky as Complex H. Finally, the Na I/Ca II and Ca II/H I ratios of the current sample are found to lie in the range observed for previous studies of IHVCs.

Lawyers in a Divided Society: Legal Culture and Legal Services in Northern Ireland",

Also published as Ch. 9 in Tomorrow's Lawyers (ed. P. Thomas) Oxford: Blackwell 1992. (With M. Fox.)

The type IIb SN 2008ax: the nature of the progenitor

A source coincident with the position of the type IIb supernova (SN) 2008ax is identified in pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 observations in three optical filters. We identify and constrain two possible progenitor systems: (i) a single massive star that lost most of its hydrogen envelope through radiatively driven mass-loss processes, prior to exploding as a helium-rich Wolf-Rayet star with a residual hydrogen envelope, and (ii) an interacting binary in a low-mass cluster producing a stripped progenitor. Late time, high-resolution observations along with detailed modelling of the SN will be required to reveal the true nature of this progenitor star.

SN 2004A: another type II-P supernova with a red supergiant progenitor

We present a monitoring study of SN 2004A and probable discovery of a progenitor star in pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images. The photometric and spectroscopic monitoring of SN 2004A show that it was a normal Type II-P which was discovered in NGC 6207 about two weeks after explosion. We compare SN 2004A to the similar Type II-P SN 1999em and estimate an explosion epoch of 2004 January 6. We also calculate three new distances to NGC 6207 of 21.0 +/- 4.3, 21.4 +/- 3.5 and 25.1 +/- 1.7 Mpc. The former was calculated using the Standard Candle Method (SCM) for SNe II-P, and the latter two from the brightest supergiants method (BSM). We combine these three distances with existing kinematic distances, to derive a mean value of 20.3 +/- 3.4 Mpc. Using this distance, we estimate that the ejected nickel mass in the explosion is 0.046(-0.017)(+0.031) M-circle dot. The progenitor of SN 2004A is identified in pre-explosion WFPC2 F814W images with a magnitude of m(F814W) = 24.3 +/- 0.3, but is below the detection limit of the F606W images. We show that this was likely a red supergiant (RSG) with a mass of 9(-2)(+3) M-circle dot. The object is detected at 4.7 sigma above the background noise. Even if this detection is spurious, the 5 sigma upper limit would give a robust upper mass limit of 12M(circle dot) for a RSG progenitor. These initial masses are very similar to those of two previously identified RSG progenitors of the Type II-P SNe 2004gd (8(-2)(+4) M circle dot) and 2005cs (9(-2)(+3) M-circle dot).

Interaction strengths in food webs: issues and opportunities

1. Recent efforts to understand how the patterning of interaction strength affects both structure and dynamics in food webs have highlighted several obstacles to productive synthesis. Issues arise with respect to goals and driving questions, methods and approaches, and placing results in the context of broader ecological theory.

Bagging statistical network inference from large-scale gene expression data.

Modern biology and medicine aim at hunting molecular and cellular causes of biological functions and diseases. Gene regulatory networks (GRN) inferred from gene expression data are considered an important aid for this research by providing a map of molecular interactions. Hence, GRNs have the potential enabling and enhancing basic as well as applied research in the life sciences. In this paper, we introduce a new method called BC3NET for inferring causal gene regulatory networks from large-scale gene expression data. BC3NET is an ensemble method that is based on bagging the C3NET algorithm, which means it corresponds to a Bayesian approach with noninformative priors. In this study we demonstrate for a variety of simulated and biological gene expression data from S. cerevisiae that BC3NET is an important enhancement over other inference methods that is capable of capturing biochemical interactions from transcription regulation and protein-protein interaction sensibly. An implementation of BC3NET is freely available as an R package from the CRAN repository. © 2012 de Matos Simoes, Emmert-Streib.

Plasma HDL cholesterol and risk of myocardial infarction: A mendelian randomisation study

Background: High plasma HDL cholesterol is associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction, but whether this association is causal is unclear. Exploiting the fact that genotypes are randomly assigned at meiosis, are independent of non-genetic confounding, and are unmodified by disease processes, mendelian random isation can be used to test the hypothesis that the association of a plasma biomarker with disease is causal.
Methods: We performed two mendelian randomisation analyses. First, we used as an instrument a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the endothelial lipase gene (LIPG Asn396Ser) and tested this SNP in 20 studies (20 913 myocardial infarction cases, 95 407 controls). Second, we used as an instrument a genetic score consisting of 14 common SNPs that exclusively associate with HDL cholesterol and tested this score in up to 12 482 cases of myocardial infarction and 41 331 controls. As a positive control, we also tested a genetic score of 13 common SNPs exclusively associated with LDL cholesterol.
Findings: Carriers of the LIPG 396Ser allele (2·6% frequency) had higher HDL cholesterol (0·14 mmol/L higher p=8×10-13) but similar levels of other lipid and non-lipid risk factors for myocardial infarction compared with noncarriers. This difference in HDL cholesterol is expected to decrease risk of myocardial infarction by 13% (odds ratio [OR] 0·87, 95% CI 0·84-0·91). However, we noted that the 396Ser allele was not associated with risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·99, 95% CI 0·88-1·11, p=0·85). From observational epidemiology, an increase of 1 SD in HDL cholesterol was associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·62, 95% CI 0·58-0·66). However, a 1 SD increase in HDL cholesterol due to genetic score was not associated with risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·93 95% CI 0·68-1·26, p=0·63). For LDL cholesterol, the estimate from observational epidemiology (a 1 SD increase in LDL cholesterol associated with OR 1·54, 95% CI 1·45-1·63) was concordant with that from genetic score (OR 2·13 95% CI 1·69-2·69, p=2×10 -10).
Interpretation: Some genetic mechanisms that raise plasma HDL cholesterol do not seem to lower risk of myocardial infarction. These data challenge the concept that raising of plasma HDL cholesterol will uniformly translate into reductions in risk of myocardial infarction.

Assessing the extent to which temporal changes in waterbird community composition are driven by either local, regional or global factors.

1. Lough Neagh and Lough Beg Special Protection Area (SPA, hereafter Lough Neagh) is an important non-estuarine site in Britain and Ireland for overwintering wildfowl. Multivariate analysis of the winter counts showed a state-shift in the waterbird community following winter 2000/2001, mostly due to rapid declines in abundance (46–57% declines in the mean mid-winter January counts between 1993–2000 and 2002–2009) of members of the diving duck guild (pochard Aythya ferina, tufted duck Aythya fuligula and goldeneye Bucephala clangula) and coot (Fulica atra), a submerged macrophyte feeder.
2. Only pochard showed correlations between declines at Lough Neagh and those of overall species flyway population indices to suggest that global changes could contribute to declines at the site. However, indices from the Republic of Ireland showed no overall decline in the rest of Ireland. Tufted duck indices at the site were inversely related to indices in Great Britain. Lough Neagh goldeneye indices were positively correlated with indices in the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain, suggesting that short-stopping could contribute to declines at the site. Coot declines at Lough Neagh did not correlate with trends elsewhere, suggesting local factors involved in the decline.
3. These analyses indicate that although there are potentially different explanations for the dramatic declines in these four waterbird species at this site, the simultaneous nature of the declines across two feeding guilds strongly
suggest that local factors (such as loss of submerged macrophytes and benthic invertebrates) were involved. An assessment of the food supply, local disturbance and other factors at Lough Neagh is required to find an explanation for the observed adverse trends in wintering numbers of the affected species.
4. This study highlights the potential of waterbird community structure to reflect the status of aquatic systems, but confirms the need to establish site-specific factors responsible for the observed changes in abundance of key waterbird species at a site.

Minimizing side reactions in chemoenzymatic dynamic kinetic resolution: organometallic and material strategies

Chemoenzymatic dynamic kinetic resolution (DKR) of rac-1-phenyl ethanol into R-1-phenylethanol acetate was investigated with emphasis on the minimization of side reactions. The organometallic hydrogen transfer (racemization) catalyst was varied, and this was observed to alter the rate and extent of oxidation of the alcohol to form ketone side products. The performance of highly active catalyst [(pentamethylcyclopentadienyl) IrCl2(1-benzyl,3-methyl-imidazol-2-ylidene)] was found to depend on the batch of lipase B used. The interaction between the bio- and chemo-catalysts was reduced by employing physical entrapment of the enzyme in silica using a sol-gel process. The nature of the gelation method was found to be important, with an alkaline method preferred, as an acidic method was found to initiate a further side reaction, the acid catalyzed dehydration of the secondary alcohol. The acidic gel was found to be a heterogeneous solid acid.