UK Public Private Partnerships and the Credit Crunch: A Case of Risk Contagion?

During the past twenty years, the UK has relied heavily on Public Private Partnerships (PPP) and especially the Private Finance Initiative in the procurement of infrastructure and services. Discussing the causes of the credit crunch and its effects on PPP, this paper notes that the provision of new public sector infrastructure and related services has been adversely affected by the impact of the credit crunch on Private Finance Initiatives (PFIs). These problems have arisen primarily from the unwillingness of commercial banks to replace collapsed PFI bond financing unless new PFI contracts reduce financial risks; which, in turn, is likely to increase the cost of these projects to the public sector. Additional financial strains have arisen for the UK government from the need to bail out collapsed PFI projects. Overall we find evidence that the UK commitment to PFI has not only increased immediate fiscal pressures on the UK when these have become least palatable, but has also created fiscal vulnerabilities at local and national levels which are likely to hamper the country’s ability to launch counter-cyclical responses to the ongoing crisis.

Arsenic trioxide and all-trans retinoic acid treatment for acute promyelocytic leukaemia in all risk groups (AML17): results of a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND: Acute promyelocytic leukaemia is a chemotherapy-sensitive subgroup of acute myeloid leukaemia characterised by the presence of the PML-RARA fusion transcript. The present standard of care, chemotherapy and all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), results in a high proportion of patients being cured. In this study, we compare a chemotherapy-free ATRA and arsenic trioxide treatment regimen with the standard chemotherapy-based regimen (ATRA and idarubicin) in both high-risk and low-risk patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia.

METHODS: In the randomised, controlled, multicentre, AML17 trial, eligible patients (aged ≥16 years) with acute promyelocytic leukaemia, confirmed by the presence of the PML-RARA transcript and without significant cardiac or pulmonary comorbidities or active malignancy, and who were not pregnant or breastfeeding, were enrolled from 81 UK hospitals and randomised 1:1 to receive treatment with ATRA and arsenic trioxide or ATRA and idarubicin. ATRA was given to participants in both groups in a daily divided oral dose of 45 mg/m(2) until remission, or until day 60, and then in a 2 weeks on-2 weeks off schedule. In the ATRA and idarubicin group, idarubicin was given intravenously at 12 mg/m(2) on days 2, 4, 6, and 8 of course 1, and then at 5 mg/m(2) on days 1-4 of course 2; mitoxantrone at 10 mg/m(2) on days 1-4 of course 3, and idarubicin at 12 mg/m(2) on day 1 of the final (fourth) course. In the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group, arsenic trioxide was given intravenously at 0·3 mg/kg on days 1-5 of each course, and at 0·25 mg/kg twice weekly in weeks 2-8 of course 1 and weeks 2-4 of courses 2-5. High-risk patients (those presenting with a white blood cell count >10 × 10(9) cells per L) could receive an initial dose of the immunoconjugate gemtuzumab ozogamicin (6 mg/m(2) intravenously). Neither maintenance treatment nor CNS prophylaxis was given to patients in either group. All patients were monitored by real-time quantitative PCR. Allocation was by central computer minimisation, stratified by age, performance status, and de-novo versus secondary disease. The primary endpoint was quality of life on the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 global health status. All analyses are by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN55675535.

FINDINGS: Between May 8, 2009, and Oct 3, 2013, 235 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to ATRA and idarubicin (n=119) or ATRA and arsenic trioxide (n=116). Participants had a median age of 47 years (range 16-77; IQR 33-58) and included 57 high-risk patients. Quality of life did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (EORTC QLQ-C30 global functioning effect size 2·17 [95% CI -2·79 to 7·12; p=0·39]). Overall, 57 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group and 40 patients in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group reported grade 3-4 toxicities. After course 1 of treatment, grade 3-4 alopecia was reported in 23 (23%) of 98 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group versus 5 (5%) of 95 in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group, raised liver alanine transaminase in 11 (10%) of 108 versus 27 (25%) of 109, oral toxicity in 22 (19%) of 115 versus one (1%) of 109. After course 2 of treatment, grade 3-4 alopecia was reported in 25 (28%) of 89 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group versus 2 (3%) of 77 in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group; no other toxicities reached the 10% level. Patients in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group had significantly less requirement for most aspects of supportive care than did those in the ATRA and idarubicin group.

INTERPRETATION: ATRA and arsenic trioxide is a feasible treatment in low-risk and high-risk patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia, with a high cure rate and less relapse than, and survival not different to, ATRA and idarubicin, with a low incidence of liver toxicity. However, no improvement in quality of life was seen.

Exploring resilience in nursing and midwifery students: a literature review

AIM: The aim of this study was to explore the concepts of 'resilience' and 'hardiness' in nursing and midwifery students in educational settings and to identify educational interventions to promote resilience.

BACKGROUND: Resilience in healthcare professionals has gained increasing attention globally, yet to date resilience and resilience education in nursing and midwifery students remain largely under-researched.

DESIGN: An integrative literature review was planned, however, only quantitative evidence was identified therefore, a review of quantitative studies was undertaken using a systematic approach.

DATA SOURCES: A comprehensive search was undertaken using Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO and Maternity and Infant Care databases January 1980-February 2015.

REVIEW METHODS: Data were extracted using a specifically designed form and quality assessed using an appropriate checklist. A narrative summary of findings and statistical outcomes was undertaken.

RESULTS: Eight quantitative studies were included. Research relating to resilience and resilience education in nursing and midwifery students is sparse. There is a weak evidence that resilience and hardiness is associated with slightly improved academic performance and decreased burnout. However, studies were heterogeneous in design and limited by poor methodological quality. No study specifically considered student midwives.

CONCLUSION: A greater understanding of the theoretical underpinnings of resilience in nursing and midwifery students is essential for the development of educational resources. It is imperative that future research considers both nursing and midwifery training cohorts and should be of strong methodological quality.

Lifestyle Risk Factors for Serrated Colorectal Polyps: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background & Aims: Certain subsets of colorectal serrated polyps (SP) have malignant potential. Weperformed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the association between modifiablelifestyle factors and risk for SPs. 
Methods: We conducted a systematic search of Medline, Embase, and Web of Science, forobservational or interventional studies that contained the terms risk or risk factor, and serrated orhyperplastic, and polyps or adenomas, and colorectal (or synonymous terms), published by March2016. Titles and abstracts of identified articles were independently reviewed by at least 2 reviewers.Adjusted relative risks (RR) and 95% CIs were combined using random effects meta-analyses toassess the risk of SP, when possible. 
Results: We identified 43 studies of SP risk associated with 7 different lifestyle factors: smoking,alcohol, body fatness, diet, physical activity, medication and/or hormone replacement therapy.When we compared the highest and lowest categories of exposure, factors we found to significantlyincrease risk for SP included tobacco smoking (RR, 2.47; 95% CI, 2.12–2.87), alcohol intake (RR, 1.33;95% CI, 1.17–1.52), body mass index (RR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.22–1.61), and high intake of fat or meat.Direct associations for smoking and alcohol, but not body fat, tended to be stronger for sessileserrated adenomas/polyps than hyperplastic polyps. In contrast, factors we found to significantlydecrease risks for SP included use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65–0.92) or aspirin (RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67–0.99), as well as high intake of folate, calcium, or fiber. Nosignificant associations were detected between SP risk and physical activity or hormone replacementtherapy. 
Conclusions: Several lifestyle factors, most notably smoking and alcohol, are associated with SP risk.These findings enhance our understanding of mechanisms of SP development and indicate that riskof serrated pathway colorectal neoplasms could be reduced with lifestyle changes.

A Collaborative Multiagent Framework based on Online Risk-Aware Planning and Decision-Making

Planning is an essential process in teams of multiple agents pursuing a common goal. When the effects of actions undertaken by agents are uncertain, evaluating the potential risk of such actions alongside their utility might lead to more rational decisions upon planning. This challenge has been recently tackled for single agent settings, yet domains with multiple agents that present diverse viewpoints towards risk still necessitate comprehensive decision making mechanisms that balance the utility and risk of actions. In this work, we propose a novel collaborative multi-agent planning framework that integrates (i) a team-level online planner under uncertainty that extends the classical UCT approximate algorithm, and (ii) a preference modeling and multicriteria group decision making approach that allows agents to find accepted and rational solutions for planning problems, predicated on the attitude each agent adopts towards risk. When utilised in risk-pervaded scenarios, the proposed framework can reduce the cost of reaching the common goal sought and increase effectiveness, before making collective decisions by appropriately balancing risk and utility of actions. 

Making Risk Visible. The role of images in the assessment of (cancer) genetic risk

Whilst analysis of 'risk' (in its many conceptual shapes) has loomed large in both medicine and social sciences over the past 25 years, detailed investigations as to how risk assessments are actually put together (in either lay or professional contexts) are few in number. The studies that are available usually focus on the use of words or everyday conversation in assembling risk. Talking about risk is, of course, important, but what tends to be ignored is the fact that risk can be and is often made visible. For example, it can be made visible through the use of tables, charts, diagrams and various kinds of sophisticated laboratory images. This paper concentrates on the role of such images in the context of a cancer genetics clinic and its associated laboratory. Precisely how these images are tied into the production of risk estimates, how professionals discuss and use such images in clinical work, and how professionals reference them to display facts about risk is the focus of the paper. The paper concludes by highlighting the significance of different kinds of visibility for an understanding of genetic abnormalities and how such differences might impact on the attempts of lay people to get to grips with risk.

Optimisation of radiotherapy for carcinoma of the parotid gland: a comparison of conventional, three-dimensional conformal, and intensity-modulated techniques

Background and purpose: To compare external beam radiotherapy techniques for parotid gland tumours using conventional radiotherapy (RT), three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT), and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). To optimise the IMRT techniques, and to produce an IMRT class solution.Materials and methods: The planning target volume (PTV), contra-lateral parotid gland, oral cavity, brain-stem, brain and cochlea were outlined on CT planning scans of six patients with parotid gland tumours. Optimised conventional RT and 3DCRT plans were created and compared with inverse-planned IMRT dose distributions using dose-volume histograms. The aim was to reduce the radiation dose to organs at risk and improve the PTV dose distribution. A beam-direction optimisation algorithm was used to improve the dose distribution of the IMRT plans, and a class solution for parotid gland IMRT was investigated.Results: 3DCRT plans produced an equivalent PTV irradiation and reduced the dose to the cochlea, oral cavity, brain, and other normal tissues compared with conventional RT. IMRT further reduced the radiation dose to the cochlea and oral cavity compared with 3DCRT. For nine- and seven-field IMRT techniques, there was an increase in low-dose radiation to non-target tissue and the contra-lateral parotid gland. IMRT plans produced using three to five optimised intensity-modulated beam directions maintained the advantages of the more complex IMRT plans, and reduced the contra-lateral parotid gland dose to acceptable levels. Three- and four-field non-coplanar beam arrangements increased the volume of brain irradiated, and increased PTV dose inhomogeneity. A four-field class solution consisting of paired ipsilateral coplanar anterior and posterior oblique beams (15, 45, 145 and 170o from the anterior plane) was developed which maintained the benefits without the complexity of individual patient optimisation.Conclusions: For patients with parotid gland tumours, reduction in the radiation dose to critical normal tissues was demonstrated with 3DCRT compared with conventional RT. IMRT produced a further reduction in the dose to the cochlea and oral cavity. With nine and seven fields, the dose to the contra-lateral parotid gland was increased, but this was avoided by optimisation of the beam directions. The benefits of IMRT were maintained with three or four fields when the beam angles were optimised, but were also achieved using a four-field class solution. Clinical trials are required to confirm the clinical benefits of these improved dose distributions.

Common psychology problems in cerebral palsy

Cerebral palsy (CP) refers to a collection of motor impairments which result in abnormal posture and movement following an insult or damage to the developing brain. Psychological adjustment in children with CP is under researched with little population-based or longitudinal data, but there is sufficient evidence to suggest that children with CP are at increased risk for psychological problems. The types of difficulties they experience include emotional, hyperactivity and peer problems with conduct disorder being more prevalent in mildly affected children. The origins of psychological problems in this group are complex but include ‘disease’ and ‘psychosocial’ factors related to having a brain-based disability in the family, as well as other factors that influence adjustment in all children. There are no intervention studies in children with CP aimed at preventing psychological problems or promoting mental wellbeing. However, evidence from other work suggests it is possible to work with the child and family to develop skills, manage symptoms, and build confidence and resilience. Acting as early as possible has been found to be beneficial for bonding, child development and reducing parental anxiety.

The text and the tale: differences between scientific reports and scientists’ reportings on the eruption of Mount Chance, Montserrat

This article looks at the difference between scientists’ written reports and their oral accounts, explanations and stories. The subject of these discourses is the eruption of Mount Chance on Montserrat, a British Overseas Territory in the Eastern Caribbean, and its continued monitoring and reporting. Scientific notions of risk and uncertainty which feature in these texts and tales will subsequently be examined and critiqued. Further to this, this article will end by pointing out that, ironically, the latter - the tale – can in some cases be a more effective and approximate mode of communication with the public than the former – the text.

BELFAST centenarians: A Case of Optimal Cardiovascular Risk?

Introduction: Centenarians are reservoirs of genetic and environmental information to successful ageing and local centenarian groups may help us to understand some of the factors that contribute to longevity. The current centenarian cohort in Belfast survived the 1970s epidemic of death from coronary heart disease in Northern Ireland, where cardiovascular mortality was almost highest in the world. These centenarians provided an opportunity to assess biological and genetic factors important in cardiovascular risk and ageing. Methods: Thirty-five (27 female, 8 male) centenarians, participants of the Belfast Elderly Longitudinal Free-living Ageing STudy (BELFAST), were community-living and of good cognition at enrolment. Results: Centenarians showed median Body Mass Index (BMI) at 25.7, systolic blood pressure 140mmHg and diastolic blood pressure 90mmHg, and fasting glucose of 5.54 mmol/l with no sex-related difference. Lipoproteins showed median cholesterol 5.3, High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) 1.10 and Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) 3.47umol/l respectively. Centenarian smokers showed no different blood pressure or lipid measurements compared with non-smokers. Malondialdehyde, a measure of lipid peroxidation, was low at 1.19 umol/l, and measures of antioxidant status were varied. Male centenarians did not carry any of the vascular risk genotypes studied-ApoE4 for Apolipoprotein E (ApoE), DD for Angiotensinogen Converting Enzyme (ACE) and tt for 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTFHR), though this was not true for female centenarians.. Conclusions: This small local study shows that Belfast centenarians carry a reasonably favourable risk profile, except for age, with respect to cardiovascular disease. There is also some evidence that vascular risk factors and genotypes may be tolerated differently between the male and female centenarians. Maintaining a favourable cardiovascular risk profile seems likely to improve the chance of becoming a centenarian, especially for males.

Identification of gene networks associated with acute myeloid leukemia by comparative molecular methylation and expression profiling

Around 80% of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients achieve a complete remission, however many will relapse and ultimately die of their disease. The association between karyotype and prognosis has been studied extensively and identified patient cohorts as having favourable [e.g. t(8; 21), inv (16)/t(16; 16), t(15; 17)], intermediate [e.g. cytogenetically normal (NK-AML)] or adverse risk [e.g. complex karyotypes]. Previous studies have shown that gene expression profiling signatures can classify the sub-types of AML, although few reports have shown a similar feature by using methylation markers. The global methylation patterns in 19 diagnostic AML samples were investigated using the Methylated CpG Island Amplification Microarray (MCAM) method and CpG island microarrays containing 12,000 CpG sites. The first analysis, comparing favourable and intermediate cytogenetic risk groups, revealed significantly differentially methylated CpG sites (594 CpG islands) between the two subgroups. Mutations in the NPM1 gene occur at a high frequency (40%) within the NK-AML subgroup and are associated with a more favourable prognosis in these patients. A second analysis comparing the NPM1 mutant and wild-type research study subjects again identified distinct methylation profiles between these two subgroups. Network and pathway analysis revealed possible molecular mechanisms associated with the different risk and/or mutation sub-groups. This may result in a better classification of the risk groups, improved monitoring targets, or the identification of novel molecular therapies.

Safeguarding: A case for intelligent risk management

‘Risk’ in social work is typically read as risk-of-bads, and specifically extreme bads. This paper develops the implications of the logical objection to attempts to predict low frequency extreme events (such as child homicides). Our argument is that if we focus on these low probability high cost outcomes—these heart wrenching, but unpredictable, tragedies—we take social work away from the good that it can do, leave it open to inappropriate disapprobation, and, in terms of outcomes, do less well by the vulnerable. This point is reinforced by discussion of developments in other academic fields, and by further examination of the logic (and the morality) of protection under uncertainty. We explore the implications for the way social work should be evaluated. A proper academic understanding of risk, and decision making under uncertainty, has, we argue clear practical implications.

Tumor Risks and Genotype-Phenotype-Proteotype Analysis in 358 Patients With Germline Mutations in SDHB and SDHD

Succinate dehydrogenase B (SDHB) and D (SDHD) subunit gene mutations predispose to adrenal and extraadrenal pheochromocytomas, head and neck paragangliomas (HNPGL), and other tumor types. We report tumor risks in 358 patients with SDHB (n = 295) and SDHD (n = 63) mutations. Risks of HNPGL and pheochromocytoma in SDHB mutation carriers were 29% and 52%, respectively, at age 60 years and 71% and 29%, respectively, in SDHD mutation carriers. Risks of malignant pheochromocytoma and renal tumors (14% at age 70 years) were higher in SDHB mutation carriers; 55 different mutations (including a novel recurrent exon 1 deletion) were identified. No clear genotype-phenotype correlations were detected for SDHB mutations. However, SDHD mutations predicted to result in loss of expression or a truncated or unstable protein were associated with a significantly increased risk of pheochromocytoma compared to missense mutations that were not predicted to impair protein stability (most such cases had the common p.Pro81Leu mutation). Analysis of the largest cohort of SDHB/D mutation carriers has enhanced estimates of penetrance and tumor risk and supports in silicon protein structure prediction analysis for functional assessment of mutations. The differing effect of the SDHD p.Pro81Leu on HNPGL and pheochromocytoma, risks suggests differing mechanisms of tumorigenesis in SDH-associated HNPGL and pheochromocytoma. Hum Mutat 31:41-51, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.