120 resultados para investment decision making
Resumo:
Aims and objectives. This study aimed to explore the issues that influence the dietary choices made by patients attending a secondary prevention clinic following a myocardial infarction.
Resumo:
An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.
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Objectives
To explore the role of evidence of effectiveness when making decisions about over-the-counter (OTC) medication and to ascertain whether evidence-based medicine training raised awareness in decision-making. Additionally, this work aimed to complement the findings of a previous study because all participants in this current study had received training in evidence-based medicine (unlike the previous participants).
Methods
Following ethical approval and an e-mailed invitation, face-to-face, semi-structured interviews were conducted with newly registered pharmacists (who had received training in evidence-based medicine as part of their MPharm degree) to discuss the role of evidence of effectiveness with OTC medicines. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Following transcription, all data were entered into the NVivo software package (version 8). Data were coded and analysed using a constant comparison approach.
Key findings
Twenty-five pharmacists (7 males and 18 females; registered for less than 4 months) were recruited and all participated in the study. Their primary focus with OTC medicines was safety; sales of products (including those that lack evidence of effectiveness) were justified provided they did no harm. Meeting patient expectation was also an important consideration and often superseded evidence. Despite knowledge of the concept, and an awareness of ethical requirements, an evidence-based approach was not routinely implemented by these pharmacists. Pharmacists did not routinely utilize evidence-based resources when making decisions about OTC medicines and some felt uncomfortable discussing the evidence-base for OTC products with patients.
Conclusions
The evidence-based medicine training that these pharmacists received appeared to have limited influence on OTC decision-making. More work could be conducted to ensure that an evidence-based approach is routinely implemented in practice
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Are older adults risk seeking or risk averse? Answering this question might depend on both the task used and the analysis performed. By modeling responses to the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), our results illustrate the value of modeling as compared to relying on common analysis techniques. While analysis of overall measures suggested initially that older and younger adults do not differ in their risky decisions, our modeling results indicated that younger adults were at first more willing to take greater risks. Furthermore, older adults may be more cautious when their decision making is based on initial perceptions of risk, rather than learning following some experience with a task.
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Autonomous agents may encapsulate their principals' personal data attributes. These attributes may be disclosed to other agents during agent interactions, producing a loss of privacy. Thus, agents need self-disclosure decision-making mechanisms to autonomously decide whether disclosing personal data attributes to other agents is acceptable or not. Current self-disclosure decision-making mechanisms consider the direct benefit and the privacy loss of disclosing an attribute. However, there are many situations in which the direct benefit of disclosing an attribute is a priori unknown. This is the case in human relationships, where the disclosure of personal data attributes plays a crucial role in their development. In this paper, we present self-disclosure decision-making mechanisms based on psychological findings regarding how humans disclose personal information in the building of their relationships. We experimentally demonstrate that, in most situations, agents following these decision-making mechanisms lose less privacy than agents that do not use them. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.