Prediction of limit cycle oscillations under uncertainty using a Harmonic Balance method

The Harmonic Balance method is an attractive solution for computing periodic responses and can be an alternative to time domain methods, at a reduced computational cost. The current paper investigates using a Harmonic Balance method for simulating limit cycle oscillations under uncertainty. The Harmonic Balance method is used in conjunction with a non-intrusive polynomial-chaos approach to propagate variability and is validated against Monte Carlo analysis. Results show the potential of the approach for a range of nonlinear dynamical systems, including a full wing configuration exhibiting supercritical and subcritical bifurcations, at a fraction of the cost of performing time domain simulations.

Subjective impact of minimally invasive dentistry in the oral health of older patients

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate if a minimally invasive oral health package with the use of atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) or a conventional restorative technique (CT) would result in any perceived benefit from the patients' perspective and if there would be any difference between the two treatment groups.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this randomised clinical trial, 99 independently living older adults (65-90 years) with carious lesions were randomly allocated to receive either ART or conventional restorations using minimally invasive/intervention dentistry (MID) principles. Patients completed an Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP)-14 questionnaire before and 2 months after treatment. They were also asked to complete a global transition question about their oral health after treatment.

RESULTS: At baseline, the mean OHIP-14 scores recorded were 7.34 (ART) and 7.44 (CT). Two months after treatment intervention, 90 patients answered the OHIP-14 and the mean scores were 7.23 (not significant (n.s.)) and 10.38 (n.s.) for the ART and CT groups, respectively. Overall, 75.5 % of patients stated that their oral health was better compared to the beginning of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS: Although not shown by the OHIP-14, patients perceived an improvement in their overall oral status after treatment, as demonstrated by the global transition ratings in both groups.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Dental treatment using minimally invasive techniques might be a good alternative to treat older individuals, and it can improve their oral health both objectively and subjectively.

An Architecture of a Multi-Agent System for SCADA - Dealing With Uncertainty, Plans and Actions

This paper presents a multi-agent system approach to address the difficulties encountered in traditional SCADA systems deployed in critical environments such as electrical power generation, transmission and distribution. The approach models uncertainty and combines multiple sources of uncertain information to deliver robust plan selection. We examine the approach in the context of a simplified power supply/demand scenario using a residential grid connected solar system and consider the challenges of modelling and reasoning with
uncertain sensor information in this environment. We discuss examples of plans and actions required for sensing, establish and discuss the effect of uncertainty on such systems and investigate different uncertainty theories and how they can fuse uncertain information from multiple sources for effective decision making in
such a complex system.

The subjective numeracy scale as a tool for assessing statistical numeracy in older adult populations

BACKGROUND:
Statistical numeracy, necessary for making informed medical decisions, is reduced among older adults who make more decisions about their medical care and treatment than at any other stage of life. Objective numeracy scales are a source of anxiety among patients, heightened among older adults.
OBJECTIVE:
We investigate the subjective numeracy scale as an alternative tool for measuring statistical numeracy with older adult samples.
METHODS:
Numeracy was assessed using objective measures for 526 adults ranging in age from 18 to 93 years, and all participants provided subjective numeracy ratings.
RESULTS:
Subjective numeracy correlated highly with objective measurements among oldest adults (70+ years; r = 0.51, 95% CI 0.32, 0.66), and for younger age groups. Subjective numeracy explained 33.2% of age differences in objective numeracy.
CONCLUSION:
The subjective numeracy scale provides an effective tool for assessing statistical numeracy for broad age ranges and circumvents problems associated with objective numeracy measures.

Reducing Parametric Uncertainty in Limit Cycle Oscillations

The assimilation of discrete higher fidelity data points with model predictions can be used to achieve a reduction in the uncertainty of the model input parameters which generate accurate predictions. The problem investigated here involves the prediction of limit-cycle oscillations using a High-Dimensional Harmonic Balance method (HDHB). The efficiency of the HDHB method is exploited to enable calibration of structural input parameters using a Bayesian inference technique. Markov-chain Monte Carlo is employed to sample the posterior distributions. Parameter estimation is carried out on both a pitch/plunge aerofoil and Goland wing configuration. In both cases significant refinement was achieved in the distribution of possible structural parameters allowing better predictions of their
true deterministic values.

Analysing Web-Orchestrations Under Stress Using Uncertainty Profiles

An orchestration is a multi-threaded computation that invokes a number of remote services. In practice, the responsiveness of a web-service fluctuates with demand; during surges in activity service responsiveness may be degraded, perhaps even to the point of failure. An uncertainty profile formalizes a user's perception of the effects of stress on an orchestration of web-services; it describes a strategic situation, modelled by a zero-sum angel–daemon game. Stressed web-service scenarios are analysed, using game theory, in a realistic way, lying between over-optimism (services are entirely reliable) and over-pessimism (all services are broken). The ‘resilience’ of an uncertainty profile can be assessed using the valuation of its associated zero-sum game. In order to demonstrate the validity of the approach, we consider two measures of resilience and a number of different stress models. It is shown how (i) uncertainty profiles can be ordered by risk (as measured by game valuations) and (ii) the structural properties of risk partial orders can be analysed.

Uncertainty in the Cloud: An Angel-Daemon Approach to Modelling Performance

Uncertainty profiles are used to study the effects of contention within cloud and service-based environments. An uncertainty profile provides a qualitative description of an environment whose quality of service (QoS) may fluctuate unpredictably. Uncertain environments are modelled by strategic games with two agents; a daemon is used to represent overload and high resource contention; an angel is used to represent an idealised resource allocation situation with no underlying contention. Assessments of uncertainty profiles are useful in two ways: firstly, they provide a broad understanding of how environmental stress can effect an application’s performance (and reliability); secondly, they allow the effects of introducing redundancy into a computation to be assessed

Beyond work-hour restrictions: a qualitative study of residents' subjective workload

INTRODUCTION: Following the introduction of work-hour restrictions, residents' workload has become an important theme in postgraduate training. The efficacy of restrictions on workload, however, remains controversial, as most research has only examined objective workload. The purpose of this study was to explore the less clearly understood component of subjective workload and, in particular, the factors that influenced residents' subjective workload.

METHOD: This study was conducted in Japan at three community teaching hospitals. We recruited a convenience sample of 31 junior residents in seven focus groups at the three sites. Audio-recorded and transcribed data were read iteratively and analyzed thematically, identifying, analyzing and reporting themes within the data and developing an interpretive synthesis of the topic.

RESULTS: Seven factors influenced residents' subjective workload: (1) interaction within the professional community, (2) feedback from patients, (3) being in control, (4) professional development, (5) private life, (6) interest and (7) protected free time.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that residents who have good interaction with colleagues and patients, are competent enough to control their work, experience personal development through working, have greater interest in their work, and have fulfilling private lives will have the least subjective workload.

Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the Exchangeability Method.

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether incentive compatibility affects subjective probabilities elicited via the exchangeability method (EM), an elicitation technique consisting of several chained questions. We hypothesize that subjects who are aware of the chaining strategically behave and provide invalid subjective probabilities, while subjects who are not aware of the chaining state their real beliefs and provide valid subjective probabilities. The validity of subjective probabilities is investigated using de Finetti's notion of coherence, under which probability estimates are valid if and only if they obey all axioms of probability theory.
Four experimental treatments are designed and implemented. Subjects are divided into two initial treatment groups: in the first, they are provided with real monetary incentives, and in the second, they are not. Each group is further sub-divided into two treatment groups, in the first, the chained structure of the experimental design is made clear to the subjects, while, in the second, the chained structure is hidden by randomizing the elicitation questions.
Our results suggest that subjects provided with monetary incentives and randomized questions provide valid subjective probabilities because they are not aware of the chaining which undermines the incentive compatibility of the exchangeability method.