A Bayesian framework for age modeling of radiocarbon-dated peat deposits: Case studies from the Netherlands

Recently, Bayesian statistical software has been developed for age-depth modeling (wiggle-match dating) of sequences of densely spaced radiocarbon dates from peat cores. The method is described in non-statistical terms, and is compared with an alternative method of chronological ordering of 14C dates. Case studies include the dating of the start of agriculture in the northeastern part of the Netherlands, and of a possible Hekla-3 tephra layer in the same country. We discuss future enhancements in Bayesian age modeling.

Exploring lay views on physical activity and their implications for public health policy. A case study from East Belfast

It is now recognised that inactive lifestyles underpin much of the disease burden evident in the richer nations of the world. Indeed, the WHO has identified physical inactivity as a 'global public health problem' and has established minimum physical activity (PA) targets for people at different stages of the life-course. Yet, according to WHO, just under 1/3 of working age adults across the globe meet those targets and it is not at all clear how the disjunction between the recommendations of policy makers and the behaviour of ordinary people might be surmounted. Using an opportunity to examine the impact of an urban regeneration project on community residents in East Belfast (Northern Ireland) this paper examines the views of some 113 people on how to increase rates of PA in an area of multiple deprivation. The results of the analysis suggest that lay people rarely consider PA as a discrete issue, or one that centres on individuals and their motivation, but rather as one component in a complex web of concerns, processes and events that include such things as the actions of neighbours and relatives, material and political environments, vandalism, violence, and the weather. We explore and unravel the nature of those concerns using novel methods of content analysis that generate 'issue webs'. Particular attention is paid to the ways in which lay people conceptualize 'activity' and to the manner in which they point to ways of encouraging activity that are rooted in everyday life rather than in the corpocentric, agent-centred and often sport dominated strategies favoured by local policy makers. Our results support those who argue that interventions to increase rates of PA need to move beyond behavioural approaches that focus on individuals and consider the social, political and material contexts in which 'activity' occurs.

Stability of Short-span Bridges Subject to Overtopping during Floods: Case Studies from UK and the USA

As a consequence of increased levels of flooding, largely attributable to urbanization of watersheds (and perhaps climate change, more frequent extreme rainfall events are occurring and threatening existing critical infrastructure. Many of which are short-span bridges over relatively small waterways (e.g., small rivers, streams and canals). Whilst these short-span bridges were designed, often many years ago, to pass relatively minor the then standard return-period floods, in recenttimes the failure incidence of such short-span bridges has been noticeably increasing. This is suggestive of insufficient hydraulic capacity or alternative failure mechanism not envisaged at the time of design e.g. foundation scour or undermining. This paper presen ts, and draws lessons, from bridge failures in Ireland and the USA. For example, in November 2009, the UK and Ireland were subjected to extraordinarily severe weather conditions for several days. The resulting flooding led to the collapse of three UK bridges that were generally 19th century masonry arch bridges, withrelatively shallow foundations. Parallel failure events have been observed in the USA. To date, knowledge of the combined effect of waterway erosion, bridge submergence, and geotechnical collapse has not been adequately studied. Recent research carried out considered the hydraulic analysis of short span bridges under flood conditions, but no consideration was given towards the likely damage to these structures due to erosive coupling of hydraulic and geotechnical factors. Some work has been done to predict the discharge downstream of an inundated arch, focusing onpredicting afflux, as opposed to bridge scour, under both pressurized and free-surface flows, but no ! predictive equation for scour under pressurized conditions was ever considered. The case studies this paper presents will be augmented by the initial findings from the laboratory experiments investigating the effects of surcharged flow and subsequent scour within the vicinity of single span arch bridges. Velocities profiles will be shown within the vicinity of the arch, in addition to the depth of consequent scour, for a series of flows and model spans. The data will be presented and correlated to the most recent predictive equations for submerged contraction and abutment scour. The accuracy of these equations is examined, and the findings used as a basis for developing further studies in relation to short span bridges.

Perspectives on the Future of Public Private Partnership in the UK

During the past two decades the UK has played a leading position in the development and application of Public Private Partnership (PPP) based infrastructure procurement through its Private Finance Initiative model. This model had been developed during the last years of the Major Government and expanded during the early years of the Blair Government. The banking and economic crisis of 2007-09 has created major challenges to the use of PPP in the UK, making the sustainability of past levels of PPP investment and the future direction of PPP based infrastructure procurement in that country uncertain. This chapter summarises key developments in UK PPP up to the crisis; reviews the economic issues that have led up to the crisis; discusses the immediate impact of the crisis on the UK PFI and PPP market together with the transition arrangements that were put into to place by the Brown government; and, lastly, looks at recent initiatives taken by Cameron’s Conservative-Liberal Coalition Government under the designation of Private Finance 2 (PF2).

Parallel Time Series Analysis and Income Inequality: A New Approach to Comparative Case Studies

This case study deals with the role of time series analysis in sociology, and its relationship with the wider literature and methodology of comparative case study research. Time series analysis is now well-represented in top-ranked sociology journals, often in the form of ‘pooled time series’ research designs. These studies typically pool multiple countries together into a pooled time series cross-section panel, in order to provide a larger sample for more robust and comprehensive analysis. This approach is well suited to exploring trans-national phenomena, and for elaborating useful macro-level theories specific to social structures, national policies, and long-term historical processes. It is less suited however, to understanding how these global social processes work in different countries. As such, the complexities of individual countries - which often display very different or contradictory dynamics than those suggested in pooled studies – are subsumed. Meanwhile, a robust literature on comparative case-based methods exists in the social sciences, where researchers focus on differences between cases, and the complex ways in which they co-evolve or diverge over time. A good example of this is the inequality literature, where although panel studies suggest a general trend of rising inequality driven by the weakening power of labour, marketisation of welfare, and the rising power of capital, some countries have still managed to remain resilient. This case study takes a closer look at what can be learned by applying the insights of case-based comparative research to the method of time series analysis. Taking international income inequality as its point of departure, it argues that we have much to learn about the viability of different combinations of policy options by examining how they work in different countries over time. By taking representative cases from different welfare systems (liberal, social democratic, corporatist, or antipodean), we can better sharpen our theories of how policies can be more specifically engineered to offset rising inequality. This involves a fundamental realignment of the strategy of time series analysis, grounding it instead in a qualitative appreciation of the historical context of cases, as a basis for comparing effects between different countries.