Generalized Loopy 2U: A New Algorithm for Approximate Inference in Credal Networks

Credal nets generalize Bayesian nets by relaxing the requirement of precision of probabilities. Credal nets are considerably more expressive than Bayesian nets, but this makes belief updating NP-hard even on polytrees. We develop a new efficient algorithm for approximate belief updating in credal nets. The algorithm is based on an important representation result we prove for general credal nets: that any credal net can be equivalently reformulated as a credal net with binary variables; moreover, the transformation, which is considerably more complex than in the Bayesian case, can be implemented in polynomial time. The equivalent binary credal net is updated by L2U, a loopy approximate algorithm for binary credal nets. Thus, we generalize L2U to non-binary credal nets, obtaining an accurate and scalable algorithm for the general case, which is approximate only because of its loopy nature. The accuracy of the inferences is evaluated by empirical tests.

Outperformance in exchange-traded fund pricing deviations: Generalized control of data snooping bias

An investigation into exchange-traded fund (ETF) outperforrnance during the period 2008-2012 is undertaken utilizing a data set of 288 U.S. traded securities. ETFs are tested for net asset value (NAV) premium, underlying index and market benchmark outperformance, with Sharpe, Treynor, and Sortino ratios employed as risk-adjusted performance measures. A key contribution is the application of an innovative generalized stepdown procedure in controlling for data snooping bias. We find that a large proportion of optimized replication and debt asset class ETFs display risk-adjusted premiums with energy and precious metals focused funds outperforming the S&P 500 market benchmark. 

Low complexity greedy detection method with generalized multicarrier index keying OFDM

Multicarrier Index Keying (MCIK) is a recently developed technique that modulates subcarriers but also indices of the subcarriers. In this paper a novel low-complexity detection scheme of subcarrier indices is proposed for an MCIK system and addresses a substantial reduction in complexity over the optimalmaximum likelihood (ML) detection. For the performance evaluation, a closed-form expression for the pairwise error probability (PEP) of an active subcarrier index, and a tight approximation of the average PEP of multiple subcarrier indices are derived in closed-form. The theoretical outcomes are validated usingsimulations, at a difference of less than 0.1dB. Compared to the optimal ML, the proposed detection achieves a substantial reduction in complexity with small loss in error performance (<= 0.6dB).

Balancing the (carbon) budget: Using linear inverse models to estimate carbon flows and mass-balance 13C:15N labelling experiments in low oxygen sediments.

Over 1 million km² of seafloor experience permanent low-oxygen conditions within oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). OMZs are predicted to grow as a consequence of climate change, potentially affecting oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The Arabian Sea OMZ impinges upon the western Indian continental margin at bathyal depths (150 - 1500 m) producing a strong depth dependent oxygen gradient at the sea floor. The influence of the OMZ upon the short term processing of organic matter by sediment ecosystems was investigated using in situ stable isotope pulse chase experiments. These deployed doses of ¹³C:¹⁵N labeled organic matter onto the sediment surface at four stations from across the OMZ (water depth 540 - 1100 m; [O₂] = 0.35 - 15 μM). In order to prevent experimentally anoxia, the mesocosms were not sealed. ¹³C and ¹⁵N labels were traced into sediment, bacteria, fauna and ¹³C into sediment porewater DIC and DOC. However, the DIC and DOC flux to the water column could not be measured, limiting our capacity to obtain mass-balance for C in each experimental mesocosm. Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) provides a method to obtain a mass-balanced model of carbon flow that integrates stable-isotope tracer data with community biomass and biogeochemical flux data from a range of sources. Here we present an adaptation of the LIM methodology used to investigate how ecosystem structure influenced carbon flow across the Indian margin OMZ. We demonstrate how oxygen conditions affect food-web complexity, affecting the linkages between the bacteria, foraminifera and metazoan fauna, and their contributions to benthic respiration. The food-web models demonstrate how changes in ecosystem complexity are associated with oxygen availability across the OMZ and allow us to obtain a complete carbon budget for the stationa where stable-isotope labelling experiments were conducted.

Towards generalized Doherty power amplifier design for multiband operation

This paper presents a new variant of broadband Doherty power amplifier that employs a novel output combiner. A new parameter ∝ is introduced to permit a generalized analysis of the recently reported Parallel Doherty power amplifier (PDPA),and hence offer design flexibility. The circuit prototype of the new DPA fabricated using GaN devices exhibits maximum drain efficiency of 85% at 43-dBm peak power and 63% at 6-dB backoff power (BOP). Measured drain efficiency of >60% at peak power across 500-MHz frequency range and >50% at 6-dB BOP across 480-MHz frequency range were achieved, confirming the  theoretical wideband characteristics of the new DPA.

Exploring inequities in child welfare and child protection services: Explaining the ‘inverse intervention law’

Attempts to record, understand and respond to variations in child welfare and protection reporting, service patterns and outcomes are international, numerous and longstanding. Reframing such variations as an issue of inequity between children and between families opens the way to a new approach to explaining the profound difference in intervention rates between and within countries and administrative districts. Recent accounts of variation have frequently been based on the idea that there is a binary division between bias and risk (or need). Here we propose seeing supply (bias) and demand (risk) factors as two aspects of a single system, both framed, in part, by social structures. A recent finding from a study of intervention rates in England, the 'inverse intervention law', is used to illustrate the complex ways in which a range of factors interact to produce intervention rates. In turn, this analysis raises profound moral, policy, practice and research questions about current child welfare and child protection services.

The κ− μ / Inverse Gamma Fading Model

Statistical distributions have been extensively used in modeling fading effects in conventional and modern wireless communications. In the present work, we propose a novel κ − µ composite shadowed fading model, which is based on the valid assumption that the mean signal power follows the inverse gamma distribution instead of the lognormal or commonly used gamma distributions. This distribution has a simple relationship with the gamma distribution, but most importantly, its semi heavy-tailed characteristics constitute it suitable for applications relating to modeling of shadowed fading. Furthermore, the derived probability density function of the κ − µ / inverse gamma composite distribution admits a rather simple algebraic representation that renders it convenient to handle both analytically and numerically. The validity and utility of this fading model are demonstrated by means of modeling the fading effects encountered in body centric communications channels, which have been known to be susceptible to the shadowing effect. To this end, extensive comparisons are provided between theoretical and respective real-time measurement results. It is shown that these comparisons exhibit accurate fitting of the new model for various measurement set ups that correspond to realistic communication scenarios.

The η − µ / Inverse Gamma Composite Fading Model

In this paper we propose a new composite fadingmodel which assumes that the mean signal power of an η−µ signalenvelope follows an inverse gamma distribution. The inversegamma distribution has a simple relationship with the gammadistribution and can be used to model shadowed fading due to itssemi heavy-tailed characteristics. To demonstrate the utility of thenew η−µ / inverse gamma composite fading model, we investigatethe characteristics of the shadowed fading behavior observed inbody centric communications channels which are known to besusceptible to shadowing effects, particularly generated by thehuman body. It is shown that the η−µ / inverse gamma compositefading model provided an excellent fit to the measurement data.Moreover, using Kullback-Leibler divergence, the η −µ / inversegamma composite fading model was found to provide a better fitto the measured data than the κ − µ / inverse gamma compositefading model, for the communication scenarios considered here.

Generalized collisional radiative model for light elements: C: Data for the B isonuclear sequence

A first stage collision database is assembled which contains electron-impact excitation, ionization,\r and recombination rate coefficients for B, B + , B 2+ , B 3+ , and B 4+ . The first stage database\r is constructed using the R-matrix with pseudostates, time-dependent close-coupling, and perturbative\r distorted-wave methods. A second stage collision database is then assembled which contains\r generalized collisional-radiative ionization, recombination, and power loss rate coefficients as a\r function of both temperature and density. The second stage database is constructed by solution of\r the collisional-radiative equations in the quasi-static equilibrium approximation using the first\r stage database. Both collision database stages reside in electronic form at the IAEA Labeled Atomic\r Data Interface (ALADDIN) database and the Atomic Data Analysis Structure (ADAS) open database.

Generalized collisional radiative model for light elements. Part B: Data for the Be isonuclear sequence

A first-stage collision database is assembled which contains electron-impact excitation, ionization, and recombination rate coefficients for Be, Be+, Be2+, and Be3+. The first-stage database is constructed using the R-matrix with pseudo-states, time-dependent close-coupling, and perturbative, distorted-wave methods. A second-stage collision database is then assembled which contains generalized collisional-radiative and radiated power loss coefficients. The second-stage database is constructed by solution of collisional-radiative equations in the quasi-static equilibrium approximation using the first-stage database. Both collision database stages reside in electronic form at the ORNL Controlled Fusion Atomic Data Center and in the ADAS database, and are easily accessed over the worldwide internet. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonequilibrium processes from generalized Langevin equations: Realistic nanoscale systems connected to two thermal baths

We extend the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) method [L. Stella, C. D. Lorenz, and L. Kantorovich, Phys. Rev. B 89, 134303 (2014)] to model a central classical region connected to two realistic thermal baths at two different temperatures. In such nonequilibrium conditions a heat flow is established, via the central system, in between the two baths. The GLE-2B (GLE two baths) scheme permits us to have a realistic description of both the dissipative central system and its surrounding baths. Following the original GLE approach, the extended Langevin dynamics scheme is modified to take into account two sets of auxiliary degrees of freedom corresponding to the mapping of the vibrational properties of each bath. These auxiliary variables are then used to solve the non-Markovian dissipative dynamics of the central region. The resulting algorithm is used to study a model of a short Al nanowire connected to two baths. The results of the simulations using the GLE-2B approach are compared to the results of other simulations that were carried out using standard thermostatting approaches (based on Markovian Langevin and Nosé-Hoover thermostats). We concentrate on the steady-state regime and study the establishment of a local temperature profile within the system. The conditions for obtaining a flat profile or a temperature gradient are examined in detail, in agreement with earlier studies. The results show that the GLE-2B approach is able to treat, within a single scheme, two widely different thermal transport regimes, i.e., ballistic systems, with no temperature gradient, and diffusive systems with a temperature gradient.