Efficiency assessment of electricity power generation on Ireland’s Single Electricity Market by Data Envelopment Analysis

The efficiency of generation plants is an important measure for evaluating the operating performance. The objective of this paper is to evaluate electricity power generation by conducting an All-Island-Generator-Efficiency-Study (AIGES) for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland by utilising a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. An operational performance efficiency index is defined and pursued for the year 2008. The economic activities of electricity generation units/plants examined in this paper are characterized by numerous input and output indicators. Constant returns to scale (CRS) and variable returns to scale (VRS) type DEA models are employed in the analysis. Also a slacks based analysis indicates the level of inefficiency for each variable examined. The findings from this study provide a general ranking and evaluation but also facilitate various interesting efficiency comparisons between generators by fuel type.

Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data The PRISMA-IPD Statement

IMPORTANCE Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of individual participant data (IPD) aim to collect, check, and reanalyze individual-level data from all studies addressing a particular research question and are therefore considered a gold standard approach to evidence synthesis. They are likely to be used with increasing frequency as current initiatives to share clinical trial data gain momentum and may be particularly important in reviewing controversial therapeutic areas.

OBJECTIVE To develop PRISMA-IPD as a stand-alone extension to the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) Statement, tailored to the specific requirements of reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD. Although developed primarily for reviews of randomized trials, many items will apply in other contexts, including reviews of diagnosis and prognosis.

DESIGN Development of PRISMA-IPD followed the EQUATOR Network framework guidance and used the existing standard PRISMA Statement as a starting point to draft additional relevant material. A web-based survey informed discussion at an international workshop that included researchers, clinicians, methodologists experienced in conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD, and journal editors. The statement was drafted and iterative refinements were made by the project, advisory, and development groups. The PRISMA-IPD Development Group reached agreement on the PRISMA-IPD checklist and flow diagram by consensus.

FINDINGS Compared with standard PRISMA, the PRISMA-IPD checklist includes 3 new items that address (1) methods of checking the integrity of the IPD (such as pattern of randomization, data consistency, baseline imbalance, and missing data), (2) reporting any important issues that emerge, and (3) exploring variation (such as whether certain types of individual benefit more from the intervention than others). A further additional item was created by reorganization of standard PRISMA items relating to interpreting results. Wording was modified in 23 items to reflect the IPD approach.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE PRISMA-IPD provides guidelines for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD.

Clinical and Cost-Effectiveness of Procalcitonin Test for Prodromal Meningococcal Disease-A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Despite vaccines and improved medical intensive care, clinicians must continue to be vigilant of possible Meningococcal Disease in children. The objective was to establish if the procalcitonin test was a cost-effective adjunct for prodromal Meningococcal Disease in children presenting at emergency department with fever without source.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data to evaluate procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and white cell count tests as indicators of Meningococcal Disease were collected from six independent studies identified through a systematic literature search, applying PRISMA guidelines. The data included 881 children with fever without source in developed countries.The optimal cut-off value for the procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and white cell count tests, each as an indicator of Meningococcal Disease, was determined. Summary Receiver Operator Curve analysis determined the overall diagnostic performance of each test with 95% confidence intervals. A decision analytic model was designed to reflect realistic clinical pathways for a child presenting with fever without source by comparing two diagnostic strategies: standard testing using combined C-reactive protein and white cell count tests compared to standard testing plus procalcitonin test. The costs of each of the four diagnosis groups (true positive, false negative, true negative and false positive) were assessed from a National Health Service payer perspective. The procalcitonin test was more accurate (sensitivity=0.89, 95%CI=0.76-0.96; specificity=0.74, 95%CI=0.4-0.92) for early Meningococcal Disease compared to standard testing alone (sensitivity=0.47, 95%CI=0.32-0.62; specificity=0.8, 95% CI=0.64-0.9). Decision analytic model outcomes indicated that the incremental cost effectiveness ratio for the base case was £-8,137.25 (US $ -13,371.94) per correctly treated patient.

CONCLUSIONS: Procalcitonin plus standard recommended tests, improved the discriminatory ability for fatal Meningococcal Disease and was more cost-effective; it was also a superior biomarker in infants. Further research is recommended for point-of-care procalcitonin testing and Markov modelling to incorporate cost per QALY with a life-time model.

Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

The effect of altering a single component of a rehabilitation programme on the functional recovery of stroke patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of altering a single component of a rehabilitation programme (e.g. adding bilateral practice alone) on functional recovery after stroke, defined using a measure of activity.

DATA SOURCES: A search was conducted of Medline/Pubmed, CINAHL and Web of Science.

REVIEW METHODS: Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility. Randomized controlled trials were included if all participants received the same base intervention, and the experimental group experienced alteration of a single component of the training programme. This could be manipulation of an intrinsic component of training (e.g. intensity) or the addition of a discretionary component (e.g. augmented feedback). One reviewer extracted the data and another independently checked a subsample (20%). Quality was appraised according to the PEDro scale.

RESULTS: Thirty-six studies (n = 1724 participants) were included. These evaluated nine training components: mechanical degrees of freedom, intensity of practice, load, practice schedule, augmented feedback, bilateral movements, constraint of the unimpaired limb, mental practice and mirrored-visual feedback. Manipulation of the mechanical degrees of freedom of the trunk during reaching and the addition of mental practice during upper limb training were the only single components found to independently enhance recovery of function after stroke.

CONCLUSION: This review provides limited evidence to support the supposition that altering a single component of a rehabilitation programme realises greater functional recovery for stroke survivors. Further investigations are required to determine the most effective single components of rehabilitation programmes, and the combinations that may enhance functional recovery.

Integrative analysis of chemo-transcriptomic profiles for drug-feature specific gene expression signatures

One of the major challenges in systems biology is to understand the complex responses of a biological system to external perturbations or internal signalling depending on its biological conditions. Genome-wide transcriptomic profiling of cellular systems under various chemical perturbations allows the manifestation of certain features of the chemicals through their transcriptomic expression profiles. The insights obtained may help to establish the connections between human diseases, associated genes and therapeutic drugs. The main objective of this study was to systematically analyse cellular gene expression data under various drug treatments to elucidate drug-feature specific transcriptomic signatures. We first extracted drug-related information (drug features) from the collected textual description of DrugBank entries using text-mining techniques. A novel statistical method employing orthogonal least square learning was proposed to obtain drug-feature-specific signatures by integrating gene expression with DrugBank data. To obtain robust signatures from noisy input datasets, a stringent ensemble approach was applied with the combination of three techniques: resampling, leave-one-out cross validation, and aggregation. The validation experiments showed that the proposed method has the capacity of extracting biologically meaningful drug-feature-specific gene expression signatures. It was also shown that most of signature genes are connected with common hub genes by regulatory network analysis. The common hub genes were further shown to be related to general drug metabolism by Gene Ontology analysis. Each set of genes has relatively few interactions with other sets, indicating the modular nature of each signature and its drug-feature-specificity. Based on Gene Ontology analysis, we also found that each set of drug feature (DF)-specific genes were indeed enriched in biological processes related to the drug feature. The results of these experiments demonstrated the pot- ntial of the method for predicting certain features of new drugs using their transcriptomic profiles, providing a useful methodological framework and a valuable resource for drug development and characterization.

Two-Year Monitoring of Water Samples from Dam of Iskar and the Black Sea, Bulgaria, by Molecular Analysis: Focus on Mycobacterium spp

The coast of the Bulgarian Black Sea is a popular summer holiday destination. The Dam of Iskar is the largest artificial dam in Bulgaria, with a capacity of 675 million m3. It is the main source of tap water for the capital Sofia and for irrigating the surrounding valley. There is a close relationship between the quality of aquatic ecosystems and human health as many infections are waterborne. Rapid molecular methods for the analysis of highly pathogenic bacteria have been developed for monitoring quality. Mycobacterial species can be isolated from waste, surface, recreational, ground and tap waters and human pathogenicity of nontuberculose mycobacteria (NTM) is well recognized. The objective of our study was to perform molecular analysis for key-pathogens, with a focus on mycobacteria, in water samples collected from the Black Sea and the Dam of Iskar. In a two year period, 38 water samples were collected-24 from the Dam of Iskar and 14 from the Black Sea coastal zone. Fifty liter water samples were concentrated by ultrafiltration. Molecular analysis for 15 pathogens, including all species of genus Mycobacterium was performed. Our results showed presence of Vibrio spp. in the Black Sea. Rotavirus A was also identified in four samples from the Dam of Iskar. Toxigenic Escherichia coli was present in both locations, based on markers for stx1 and stx2 genes. No detectable amounts of Cryptosporidium were detected in either location using immunomagnetic separation and fluorescence microscopy. Furthermore, mass spectrometry analyses did not detect key cyanobacterial toxins. On the basis of the results obtained we can conclude that for the period 2012-2014 no Mycobacterium species were present in the water samples. During the study period no cases of waterborne infections were reported.

Illness perceptions and coping in physical health conditions: A meta-analysis

Objective: There is a considerable body of research linking elements of Leventhal’s Common Sense Model (CSM) to emotional well-being/distress outcomes among people with physical illness. The present study aims to consolidate this literature and examine the evidence for the role of coping strategies within this literature.
Methods: A systematic review was conducted where the outcomes of interest were: depression, anxiety and quality of life. A total of 1050 articles were identified and 31 articles were considered eligible to be included in the review.
Results: Across a range of illnesses, perceptions of consequences of the illness and emotional representations were consistently the illness perceptions with the strongest relationship with the outcomes. Coping variables tend to be stronger predictors of outcomes than the illness perception variables. The evidence for the mediating effect of coping was inconsistent.
Conclusions: Illness perceptions and coping have an important role to play in the explanation of distress outcomes across a range of physical health conditions. However, some clarity about the theoretical position of coping in relation to illness perceptions, and further longitudinal work is needed if we are to apply this information to the design of interventions for the improvement of psychological health among people with physical health conditions.

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Genetic Associations: Mostly False? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: Many associations between abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and genetic polymorphisms have been reported. It is unclear which are genuine and which may be caused by type 1 errors, biases, and flexible study design. The objectives of the study were to identify associations supported by current evidence and to investigate the effect of study design on reporting associations.

METHODS: Data sources were MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science. Reports were dual-reviewed for relevance and inclusion against predefined criteria (studies of genetic polymorphisms and AAA risk). Study characteristics and data were extracted using an agreed tool and reports assessed for quality. Heterogeneity was assessed using I(2) and fixed- and random-effects meta-analyses were conducted for variants that were reported at least twice, if any had reported an association. Strength of evidence was assessed using a standard guideline.

RESULTS: Searches identified 467 unique articles, of which 97 were included. Of 97 studies, 63 reported at least one association. Of 92 studies that conducted multiple tests, only 27% corrected their analyses. In total, 263 genes were investigated, and associations were reported in polymorphisms in 87 genes. Associations in CDKN2BAS, SORT1, LRP1, IL6R, MMP3, AGTR1, ACE, and APOA1 were supported by meta-analyses.

CONCLUSION: Uncorrected multiple testing and flexible study design (particularly testing many inheritance models and subgroups, and failure to check for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium) contributed to apparently false associations being reported. Heterogeneity, possibly due to the case mix, geographical, temporal, and environmental variation between different studies, was evident. Polymorphisms in nine genes had strong or moderate support on the basis of the literature at this time. Suggestions are made for improving AAA genetics study design and conduct.

The use of Log-file analysis within VMAT audits

OBJECTIVE: This work investigates the delivery accuracy of different Varian linear accelerator models using log-file derived MLC RMS values.

METHODS: Seven centres independently created a plan on the same virtual phantom using their own planning system and the log files were analysed following delivery of the plan in each centre to assess MLC positioning accuracy. A single standard plan was also delivered by seven centres to remove variations in complexity and the log files were analysed for Varian TrueBeams and Clinacs (2300IX or 2100CD models).

RESULTS: Varian TrueBeam accelerators had better MLC positioning accuracy (<1.0mm) than the 2300IX (<2.5mm) following delivery of the plans created by each centre and also the standard plan. In one case log files provided evidence that reduced delivery accuracy was not associated with the linear accelerator model but was due to planning issues.

CONCLUSIONS: Log files are useful in identifying differences between linear accelerator models, and isolate errors during end-to-end testing in VMAT audits. Log file analysis can rapidly eliminate the machine delivery from the process and divert attention with confidence to other aspects. Advances in Knowledge: Log file evaluation was shown to be an effective method to rapidly verify satisfactory treatment delivery when a dosimetric evaluation fails during end-to-end dosimetry audits. MLC RMS values for Varian TrueBeams were shown to be much smaller than Varian Clinacs for VMAT deliveries.

Statistical Tests for Joint Analysis of Performance Measures

Recently there has been an increasing interest in the development of new methods using Pareto optimality to deal with multi-objective criteria (for example, accuracy and architectural complexity). Once one has learned a model based on their devised method, the problem is then how to compare it with the state of art. In machine learning, algorithms are typically evaluated by comparing their performance on different data sets by means of statistical tests. Unfortunately, the standard tests used for this purpose are not able to jointly consider performance measures. The aim of this paper is to resolve this issue by developing statistical procedures that are able to account for multiple competing measures at the same time. In particular, we develop two tests: a frequentist procedure based on the generalized likelihood-ratio test and a Bayesian procedure based on a multinomial-Dirichlet conjugate model. We further extend them by discovering conditional independences among measures to reduce the number of parameter of such models, as usually the number of studied cases is very reduced in such comparisons. Real data from a comparison among general purpose classifiers is used to show a practical application of our tests.

Biomarker responses to folic acid intervention in healthy adults: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND: The task of revising dietary folate recommendations for optimal health is complicated by a lack of data quantifying the biomarker response that reliably reflects a given folate intake.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a dose-response meta-analysis in healthy adults to quantify the typical response of recognized folate biomarkers to a change in folic acid intake.

DESIGN: Electronic and bibliographic searches identified 19 randomized controlled trials that supplemented with folic acid and measured folate biomarkers before and after the intervention in apparently healthy adults aged ≥18 y. For each biomarker response, the regression coefficient (β) for individual studies and the overall pooled β were calculated by using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Folate biomarkers (serum/plasma and red blood cell folate) increased in response to folic acid in a dose-response manner only up to an intake of 400 μg/d. Calculation of the overall pooled β for studies in the range of 50 to 400 μg/d indicated that a doubling of folic acid intake resulted in an increase in serum/plasma folate by 63% (71% for microbiological assay; 61% for nonmicrobiological assay) and red blood cell folate by 31% (irrespective of whether microbiological or other assay was used). Studies that used the microbiological assay indicated lower heterogeneity compared with studies using nonmicrobiological assays for determining serum/plasma (I(2) = 13.5% compared with I(2) = 77.2%) and red blood cell (I(2) = 45.9% compared with I(2) = 70.2%) folate.

CONCLUSIONS: Studies administering >400 μg folic acid/d show no dose-response relation and thus will not yield meaningful results for consideration when generating dietary folate recommendations. The calculated folate biomarker response to a given folic acid intake may be more robust with the use of a microbiological assay rather than alternative methods for blood folate measurement.