Integrating textual analysis and evidential reasoning for decision making in Engineering design

Decision making is an important element throughout the life-cycle of large-scale projects. Decisions are critical as they have a direct impact upon the success/outcome of a project and are affected by many factors including the certainty and precision of information. In this paper we present an evidential reasoning framework which applies Dempster-Shafer Theory and its variant Dezert-Smarandache Theory to aid decision makers in making decisions where the knowledge available may be imprecise, conflicting and uncertain. This conceptual framework is novel as natural language based information extraction techniques are utilized in the extraction and estimation of beliefs from diverse textual information sources, rather than assuming these estimations as already given. Furthermore we describe an algorithm to define a set of maximal consistent subsets before fusion occurs in the reasoning framework. This is important as inconsistencies between subsets may produce results which are incorrect/adverse in the decision making process. The proposed framework can be applied to problems involving material selection and a Use Case based in the Engineering domain is presented to illustrate the approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Common-sense reasoning for human action recognition

This paper presents a novel method that leverages reasoning capabilities in a computer vision system dedicated to human action recognition. The proposed methodology is decomposed into two stages. First, a machine learning based algorithm - known as bag of words - gives a first estimate of action classification from video sequences, by performing an image feature analysis. Those results are afterward passed to a common-sense reasoning system, which analyses, selects and corrects the initial estimation yielded by the machine learning algorithm. This second stage resorts to the knowledge implicit in the rationality that motivates human behaviour. Experiments are performed in realistic conditions, where poor recognition rates by the machine learning techniques are significantly improved by the second stage in which common-sense knowledge and reasoning capabilities have been leveraged. This demonstrates the value of integrating common-sense capabilities into a computer vision pipeline. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Online Multiperson Tracking With Occlusion Reasoning and Unsupervised Track Motion Model

We address the problem of multi-target tracking in realistic crowded conditions by introducing a novel dual-stage online tracking algorithm. The problem of data-association between tracks and detections, based on appearance, is often complicated by partial occlusion. In the first stage, we address the issue of occlusion with a novel method of robust data-association, that can be used to compute the appearance similarity between tracks and detections without the need for explicit knowledge of the occluded regions. In the second stage, broken tracks are linked based on motion and appearance, using an online-learned linking model. The online-learned motion-model for track linking uses the confident tracks from the first stage tracker as training examples. The new approach has been tested on the town centre dataset and has performance comparable with the present state-of-the-art

Reasoning on the basis of fantasy content:two studies with high-functioning autistic adolescents

Reasoning about problems with empirically false content can be hard, as the inferences that people draw are heavily influenced by their background knowledge. However, presenting empirically false premises in a fantasy context helps children and adolescents to disregard their beliefs, and to reason on the basis of the premises. The aim of the present experiments was to see if high-functioning adolescents with autism are able to utilize fantasy context to the same extent as typically developing adolescents when they reason about empirically false premises. The results indicate that problems with engaging in pretence in autism persist into adolescence, and this hinders the ability of autistic individuals to disregard their beliefs when empirical knowledge is irrelevant.

An extended framework for evidential reasoning systems

Based on the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence and G. Yen's (1989), extension of the theory, the authors propose approaches to representing heuristic knowledge by evidential mapping and pooling the mass distribution in a complex frame by partitioning that frame using Shafter's partition technique. The authors have generalized Yen's model from Bayesian probability theory to the D-S theory of evidence. Based on such a generalized model, an extended framework for evidential reasoning systems is briefly specified in which a semi-graph method is used to describe the heuristic knowledge. The advantage of such a method is that it can avoid the complexity of graphs without losing the explicitness of graphs. The extended framework can be widely used to build expert systems

An Improvement of Subject Reacquisition by Reasoning and Revision

CCTV systems are broadly deployed in the present world. Despite this, the impact on anti-social and criminal behaviour has been minimal. Subject reacquisition is a fundamental task to ensure in-time reaction for intelligent surveillance. However, traditional reacquisition based on face recognition is not scalable, hence in this paper we use reasoning techniques to reduce the computational effort which deploys the time-of-flight information between interested zones such as airport security corridors. Also, to improve accuracy of reacquisition, we introduce the idea of revision as a method of post-processing.We demonstrate the significance and usefulness of our framework with an experiment which shows much less computational effort and better accuracy.

Episodic Reasoning for Vision-Based Human Action Recognition

Smart Spaces, Ambient Intelligence, and Ambient Assisted Living are environmental paradigms that strongly depend on their capability to recognize human actions. While most solutions rest on sensor value interpretations and video analysis applications, few have realized the importance of incorporating common-sense capabilities to support the recognition process. Unfortunately, human action recognition cannot be successfully accomplished by only analyzing body postures. On the contrary, this task should be supported by profound knowledge of human agency nature and its tight connection to the reasons and motivations that explain it. The combination of this knowledge and the knowledge about how the world works is essential for recognizing and understanding human actions without committing common-senseless mistakes. This work demonstrates the impact that episodic reasoning has in improving the accuracy of a computer vision system for human action recognition. This work also presents formalization, implementation, and evaluation details of the knowledge model that supports the episodic reasoning.

Blocking in children's causal learning depends on working memory and reasoning abilities.

A sample of 99 children completed a causal learning task that was an analogue of the food allergy paradigm used with adults. The cue competition effects of blocking and unovershadowing were assessed under forward and backward presentation conditions. Children also answered questions probing their ability to make the inference posited to be necessary for blocking by a reasoning account of cue competition. For the first time, children's working memory and general verbal ability were also measured alongside their causal learning. The magnitude of blocking and unovershadowing effects increased with age. However, analyses showed that the best predictor of both blocking and unovershadowing effects was children's performance on the reasoning questions. The magnitude of the blocking effect was also predicted by children's working memory abilities. These findings provide new evidence that cue competition effects such as blocking are underpinned by effortful reasoning processes. 

When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning?

Base rate neglect on the mammography problem can be overcome by explicitly presenting a causal basis for the typically vague false-positive statistic. One account of this causal facilitation effect is that people make probabilistic judgements over intuitive causal models parameterized with the evidence in the problem. Poorly defined or difficult-to-map evidence interferes with this process, leading to errors in statistical reasoning. To assess whether the construction of parameterized causal representations is an intuitive or deliberative process, in Experiment 1 we combined a secondary load paradigm with manipulations of the presence or absence of an alternative cause in typical statistical reasoning problems. We found limited effects of a secondary load, no evidence that information about an alternative cause improves statistical reasoning, but some evidence that it reduces base rate neglect errors. In Experiments 2 and 3 where we did not impose a load, we observed causal facilitation effects. The amount of Bayesian responding in the causal conditions was impervious to the presence of a load (Experiment 1) and to the precise statistical information that was presented (Experiment 3). However, we found less Bayesian responding in the causal condition than previously reported. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and the suggestion that there may be population effects in the accuracy of statistical reasoning.

Whose statistical reasoning is improved by information about causal structure?

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples’ errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.