Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

The impact of interventions to promote physical activity in urban green space: A systematic review and recommendations for future research

Evidence is mounting on the association between the built environment and physical activity (PA) with a call for intervention research. A broader approach which recognizes the role of supportive environments that can make healthy choices easier is required. A systematic review was undertaken to assess the effectiveness of interventions to encourage PA in urban green space. Five databases were searched independently by two reviewers using search terms relating to 'physical activity', 'urban green space' and 'intervention' in July 2014. Eligibility criteria included: (i) intervention to encourage PA in urban green space which involved either a physical change to the urban green space or a PA intervention to promote use of urban green space or a combination of both; and (ii) primary outcome of PA. Of the 2405 studies identified, 12 were included. There was some evidence (4/9 studies showed positive effect) to support built environment only interventions for encouraging use and increasing PA in urban green space. There was more promising evidence (3/3 studies showed positive effect) to support PAprograms or PA programs combined with a physical change to the built environment, for increasing urban green space use and PAof users. Recommendations for future research include the need for longer term follow-up post-intervention, adequate control groups, sufficiently powered studies, and consideration of the social environment, which was identified as a significantly under-utilized resource in this area. Interventions that involve the use of PA programs combined with a physical change to the built environment are likely to have a positive effect on PA. Robust evaluations of such interventions are urgently required. The findings provide a platform to inform the design, implementation and evaluation of future urban green space and PAintervention research.

Tracking Change in Northern Ireland Policing: Temporal Phases and Key Themes

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.

Using postal questionnaires to evaluate physical activity and diet behaviour change: case study exploring implications of valid responder characteristics in interpreting intervention outcomes.

Background: Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are used to evaluate lifestyle interventions but littleis known about differences between patients returning valid and invalid responses, or of potential for bias inevaluations. We aimed to examine the characteristics of patients who returned valid responses to lifestylequestionnaires compared to those whose responses were invalid for evaluating lifestyle change. 
Methods: We conducted a secondary data analysis from the SPHERE Study, a trial of an intervention to improveoutcomes for patients with coronary heart disease in primary care. Postal questionnaires were used to assessphysical activity (Godin) and diet (DINE) among study participants at baseline and 18 month follow-up. Three binaryresponse variables were generated for analysis: (1) valid Godin score; (2) valid DINE Fibre score; and (3) validDINE Total Fat score. Multivariate analysis comprised generalised estimating equation regression to examine theassociation of patients’ characteristics with their return of valid responses at both timepoints. 
Results: Overall, 92.1% of participants (832/903) returned questionnaires at both baseline and 18 months. Relativelyfewer valid Godin scores were returned by those who left school aged <15 years (36.5%) than aged 18 and over(50.5%), manual workers (39.5%) than non-manual (49.5%) and those with an elevated cholesterol (>5 mmol)(34.7%) than those with a lower cholesterol (44.4%) but multivariate analysis identified that only school leaving age(p = 0.047) was of statistical significance.Relatively fewer valid DINE scores were returned by manual than non-manual workers (fibre: 80.8% v 86.8%;fat: 71.2% v 80.0%), smokers (fibre: 72.6% v 84.7%; fat: 67.5% v 76.9%), patients with diabetes (fibre: 75.9% v 82.9%;fat: 66.9% v 75.8%) and those with cholesterol >5 mmol (fat: 68.2% v 76.2%) but multivariate analysis showedstatistical significance only for smoking (fibre: p = 0.013; fat: p = 0.045), diabetes (fibre: p = 0.039; fat: p = 0.047), andcholesterol (fat: p = 0.039). 
Conclusions: Our findings illustrate the importance of detailed reporting of research methods, with clearinformation about response rates, respondents and valid outcome data. Outcome measures which are relevant to astudy population should be chosen carefully. The impact of methods of outcome measurement and valid responserates in evaluating healthcare requires further study.

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

Belfast's Traditional Music Scene: A Narrative of Change and Development

Today Belfast is home to a vibrant traditional music scene. There have never been more sessions, concerts, classes or lectures devoted to traditional music in the north's biggest city. A complex system of promoters, performers and listeners has emerged in a city that is growing in confidence as it moves away from the dark days of the Troubles. But how does this system function? While Dowling (2014) has examined the development of traditional music-making in Belfast as it shifted from a pre-conflict to conflict ridden environment, little research has been carried out into the reasons behind the boom in traditional music-making in a post-conflict setting.

This paper examines the impact upon the traditional music scene of the first wave of students to arrive in Belfast after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. These musicians, such as Donal O'Connor, Ruadhrai O'Kane and Aidan Walsh have had a lasting impact upon the lives of musicians native to Belfast, helping to bring traditional music to new venues and audiences.

The work of Belfast-based music schools with varying remits, such as Belfast Trad., and the Andersonstown School of Traditional and Contemporary Music, is also examined for the purpose of illustrating how both adults and young people are being educated about their musical heritage.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China

Volatiles erupted from large-scale explosive volcanic activities have a significant impact on climate and environmental changes. As an important ecological factor, the occurrence of fire is affected by vegetation cover, and fire can feed back into both vegetation and climatic change. The causes of fire events are diverse; and can include volcanic eruptions. The amount of charcoal in sediment sequences is related to the frequency and intensity of fire, and hence under good preservation conditions fire history can be reconstructed from fossil charcoal abundance. Until now, little research on the role of fire has been carried out in northeastern China. In this study, through research on charcoal and tephra shards from Gushantun and Hanlongwan, Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China, was investigated. Where tephra shards are present in Gushantun it is associated with low level of both conifers and broadleaved trees, and is also associated with a pronounced charcoal peak. This suggests forest cover was greatly reduced from a fire caused by an eruption of the Tianchi volcano. We also detected one tephra layer in Hanlongwan, which also has the almost same depth with low level forest pollen values and one charcoal peak. This was caused probably by an eruption of the Jinlongdingzi volcano.

The Impact of Colleague Peer Review on the Radiotherapy Treatment Planning Process in the Radical Treatment of Lung Cancer

AIMS: Modern radiotherapy uses techniques to reliably identify tumour and reduce target volume margins. However, this can potentially lead to an increased risk of geographic miss. One source of error is the accuracy of target volume delineation (TVD). Colleague peer review (CPR) of all curative-intent lung cancer plans has been mandatory in our institution since May 2013. At least two clinical oncologists review plans, checking treatment paradigm, TVD, prescription dose tumour and critical organ tolerances. We report the impact of CPR in our institution.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Radiotherapy treatment plans of all patients receiving radical radiotherapy were presented at weekly CPR meetings after their target volumes were reviewed and signed off by the treating consultant. All cases and any resultant change to TVD (including organs at risk) or treatment intent were recorded in our prospective CPR database. The impact of CPR over a 13 month period from May 2013 to June 2014 is reported.

RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-two patients (63% non-small cell lung carcinoma, 17% small cell lung carcinoma and 20% 'clinical diagnosis') were analysed. On average, 3.2 cases were discussed per meeting (range 1-8). CPR resulted in a change in treatment paradigm in 3% (one patient proceeded to induction chemotherapy, two patients had high-dose palliative radiotherapy). Twenty-one (17%) had a change in TVD and one (1%) patient had a change in dose prescription. In total, 6% of patients had plan adjustment after review of dose volume histogram.

CONCLUSION: The introduction of CPR in our centre has resulted in a change in a component of the treatment plan for 27% of patients receiving curative-intent lung radiotherapy. We recommend CPR as a mandatory quality assurance step in the planning process of all radical lung plans.

Impact of an enhanced antibiotic stewardship on reducing methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in primary and secondary healthcare settings

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of restricting high-risk antibiotics on methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) incidence rates in a hospital setting. A secondary objective was to assess the impact of reducing fluoroquinolone use in the primary-care setting on MRSA incidence in the community. This was an interventional, retrospective, ecological investigation in both hospital and community (January 2006 to June 2010). Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time-series was employed to evaluate the intervention. The restriction of high-risk antibiotics was associated with a significant change in hospital MRSA incidence trend (coefficient=-0·00561, P=0·0057). Analysis showed that the intervention relating to reducing fluoroquinolone use in the community was associated with a significant trend change in MRSA incidence in community (coefficient=-0·00004, P=0·0299). The reduction in high-risk antibiotic use and fluoroquinolone use contributed to both a reduction in incidence rates of MRSA in hospital and community (primary-care) settings. 

Differential ecological impacts of an invader and a native under environmental change are revealed by comparative functional responses.

Predicting the ecological impacts of damaging invasive species under relevant environmental contexts is a major challenge, for which comparative functional responses (the relationship between resource availability and consumer uptake rate) have great potential. Here, the functional responses of Gammarus pulex, an ecologically damaging invader in freshwaters in Ireland and other islands, were compared with those of a native trophic equivalent Gammarus duebeni celticus. Experiments were conducted at two dissolved oxygen concentrations (80 and 50 % saturation), representative of anthropogenic water quality changes, using two larval prey, blackfly (Simuliidae spp.) and mayfly (Baetis rhodani). Overall, G. pulex had higher Type II functional responses and hence predatory impacts than G. d. celticus and the functional responses of both predators were reduced by lowered oxygen concentration. However, this reduction was of lower magnitude for the invader as compared to the native. Further, the invader functional response at low oxygen was comparable to that of the native at high oxygen. Attack rates of the two predators were similar, with low oxygen reducing these attack rates, but this effect occurred more strongly for blackfly than mayfly prey. Handling times were significantly lower for the invader compared with the native, and significantly higher at low oxygen, however, the effect of lowered oxygen on handling times was minimal for the invader and pronounced for the native. Maximum feeding rates were significantly greater for the invader compared with the native, and significantly reduced at low oxygen, with this effect again lesser for the invader as compared to the native. The greater functional responses of the invader corroborate with its impacts on recipient macroinvertebrate communities when it replaces the native. Further, our experiments predict that the impact of the invader will be less affected than the native under altered oxygen regimes driven by anthropogenic influences.

Beyond the Academy: Applying Anthropological Research, A Case Study of Demonstrating Impact in the U.K. 2014 REF

The 2014 Research Excellence Framework sought for the first time to assess the impact that research was having beyond the boundaries of the university and the wider academic sphere. While the REF continued the approach of previous research assessment exercises in attempting to measure the overall quality of research and teaching within the higher-education sector, it also expected institutions to evidence how some of their research had had ‘an effect on, change or benefit to the economy, society, culture, public policy or services, health, the environment or quality of life, beyond academia’ (REF 2012: 48). This article provides a case study in how researchers in one U.K. anthropology department were able to demonstrate the impact of their work in the public sphere successfully as part of this major audit exercise.

Emotional response to images of wind turbines: A psychophysiological study of their visual impact on the landscape

Social acceptance for wind turbines is variable, providing a challenge to the implementation of this energy source. Psychological research could contribute to the science of climate change. Here we focus on the emotional responses to the visual impact of wind turbines on the landscape, a factor which dominates attitudes towards this technology. Participants in the laboratory viewed images of turbines and other constructions (churches, pylons and power-plants) against rural scenes, and provided psychophysiological and self-report measures of their emotional reactions. We hypothesised that the emotional response to wind turbines would be more negative and intense than to control objects, and that this difference would be accentuated for turbine opponents. As predicted, the psychophysiological response to turbines was stronger than the response to churches, but did not differ from that of other industrial constructions. In contrast with predictions, turbines were rated as less aversive and more calming compared with other industrial constructions, and equivalent to churches. Supporters and non-supporters did not differ significantly from each other. We discuss how a methodology using photo manipulations and emotional self-assessments can help estimate the emotional reaction to the visual impact on the landscape at the planning stage for new wind turbine applications.