NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

How crucial is back gate misalignment/oversize in double gate MOSFETs for ultra-low-voltage analog/rf applications?

In the present work, by investigating the influence of source/drain (S/D) extension region engineering (also known as gate-underlap architecture) in planar Double Gate (DG) SOI MOSFETs, we offer new design insights to achieve high tolerance to gate misalignment/oversize in nanoscale devices for ultra-low-voltage (ULV) analog/rf applications. Our results show that (i) misaligned gate-underlap devices perform significantly better than DC devices with abrupt source/drain junctions with identical misalignment, (ii) misaligned gate underlap performance (with S/D optimization) exceeds perfectly aligned DG devices with abrupt S/D regions and (iii) 25% back gate misalignment can be tolerated without any significant degradation in cut-off frequency (f(T)) and intrinsic voltage gain (A(VO)). Gate-underlap DG devices designed with spacer-to-straggle ratio lying within the range 2.5 to 3.0 show best tolerance to misaligned/oversize back gate and indeed are better than self-aligned DG MOSFETs with non-underlap (abrupt) S/D regions. Impact of gate length and silicon film thickness scaling is also discussed. These results are very significant as the tolerable limit of misaligned/oversized back gate is considerably extended and the stringent process control requirements to achieve self-alignment can be relaxed for nanoscale planar ULV DG MOSFETs operating in weak-inversion region. The present work provides new opportunities for realizing future ULV analog/rf design with nanoscale gate-underlap DG MOSFETs. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exercise and Auricular Acupuncture for Chronic Low Back Pain: A Feasibility Randomised Controlled Trial

Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility of a randomized-controlled trial (RCT) investigating the effects of adding auricular acupuncture (AA) to exercise for participants with chronic low-back pain (CLBP). Methods: Participants with CLBP were recruited from primary care and a university population and were randomly allocated (n=51) to 1 of 2 groups: (1) "Exercise Alone (E)"-12-week program consisting of 6 weeks of supervised exercise followed by 6 weeks unsupervised exercise (n=27); or (2) "Exercise and AA (EAA)"-12-week exercise program and AA (n=24). Outcome measures were recorded at baseline, week 8, week 13, and 6 months. The primary outcome measure was the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire. Results: Participants in the EAA group demonstrated a greater mean improvement of 10.7% points (95% confidence interval, -15.3,-5.7) (effect size=1.20) in the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire at 6 months compared with 6.7% points (95% confidence interval, -11.4,-1.9) in the E group (effect size=0.58). There was also a trend towards a greater mean improvement in quality of life, LBP intensity and bothersomeness, and fear-avoidance beliefs in the EAA group. The dropout rate for this trial was lower than anticipated (15% at 6 mo), adherence with exercise was similar (72% E; 65% EAA). Adverse effects for AA ranged from 1% to 14% of participants. Discussion: Findings of this study showed that a main RCT is feasible and that 56 participants per group would need to be recruited, using multiple recruitment approaches. AA was safe and demonstrated additional benefits when combined with exercise for people with CLBP, which requires confirmation in a fully powered RCT.

The back 2 activity trial: education and advice versus education and advice plus a structured walking programme for chronic low back pain.:education and advice versus education and advice plus a structured walking programme for chronic low back pain

BACKGROUND: Current evidence supports the use of exercise-based treatment for chronic low back pain that encourages the patient to assume an active role in their recovery. Walking has been shown it to be an acceptable type of exercise with a low risk of injury. However, it is not known whether structured physical activity programmes are any more effective than giving advice to remain active.

METHODS/DESIGN: The proposed study will test the feasibility of using a pedometer-driven walking programme, as an adjunct to a standard education and advice session in participants with chronic low back pain. Fifty adult participants will be recruited via a number of different sources. Baseline outcome measures including self reported function; objective physical activity levels; fear-avoidance beliefs and health-related quality of life will be recorded. Eligible participants will be randomly allocated under strict, double blind conditions to one of two treatments groups. Participants in group A will receive a single education and advice session with a physiotherapist based on the content of the 'Back Book'. Participants in group B will receive the same education and advice session. In addition, they will also receive a graded pedometer-driven walking programme prescribed by the physiotherapist. Follow up outcomes will be recorded by the same researcher, who will remain blinded to group allocation, at eight weeks and six months post randomisation. A qualitative exploration of participants' perception of walking will also be examined by use of focus groups at the end of the intervention. As a feasibility study, treatment effects will be represented by point estimates and confidence intervals. The assessment of participant satisfaction will be tabulated, as will adherence levels and any recorded difficulties or adverse events experienced by the participants or therapists. This information will be used to modify the planned interventions to be used in a larger randomised controlled trial.

DISCUSSION: This paper describes the rationale and design of a study which will test the feasibility of using a structured, pedometer-driven walking programme in participants with chronic low back pain.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: [ISRCTN67030896].

Bringing values back into evidence-based nursing: the role of patients in resisting empiricism

We examine problems resulting from the narrow empirical focus associated with evidence-based nursing, including the deleterious influence of vested interests, disattention to patients’ experiences, underestimation of the importance of social processes, lack of an individualized research perspective, marginalization of other forms of knowledge, and the undermining of patients’ autonomy. Addressing each problem in turn, we argue that inclusion of patients at all stages of evidence-based practice can counter or ameliorate these problems. While we concede that patient involvement is not a complete solution to the problem of empiricism, it is the most effective means available to defend nursing values.

Review and meta-analysis of the short-term effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on food intake

Several short-term studies have investigated the effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on subsequent food intake, although findings have been inconsistent. This work aimed to review all studies, and investigate differences in study outcomes based on methodology. All known studies were identified. Data were abstracted from published studies (n = 7). Details of unpublished studies were gained from investigators/sponsors (n = 5), or were unavailable for reasons of confidentiality (n = 4). Available data were combined using meta-analyses. A combined appetite suppressant effect of the emulsion compared with control was found for test meal intake at approximately 4, 12 and 36 h post-treatment: smallest combined mean difference (random effects model) = 0.53 MJ (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.86), P < 0.01. However, considerable heterogeneity (variability) between study results was also found (smallest I2 = 94%, P < 0.01), questioning the predictive validity of the above findings. Meta-regression suggested this heterogeneity to be related to differences in the processed nature of the product, treatment dose and in particular year of study (smallest B = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.06, 1.03, P = 0.04), although again heterogeneity was found. The only consistent finding was a lack of effect on food intake 4 h post-preload in studies conducted after 2003. These results suggest a small but inconsistent appetite suppressant effect of the vegetable oil emulsion. However, due to the large heterogeneity, no definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Dynamic pricing for used products in remanufacturing with back orders(ABS 3* Journal, Accepted with Revision on 2nd December 2011).

In remanufacturing, the supply of used products and the demand for remanufactured products are usually mismatched because of the great uncertainties on both sides. In this paper, we propose a dynamic pricing policy to balance this uncertain supply and demand. Specifically, we study a remanufacturer’s problem of pricing a single class of cores with random price-dependent returns and random demand for the remanufactured products with backlogs. We model this pricing task as a continuous-time Markov decision process, which addresses both the finite and infinite horizon problems, and provide managerial insights by analyzing the structural properties of the optimal policy. We then use several computational examples to illustrate the impacts of particular system parameters on pricing policy.