Short-Term Reversals: The Effects of Past Returns and Institutional Exits

Price declines over the previous quarter lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent two months. We explain this finding based on the dual notions that liquidity provision can influence reversals, and agents that act as de facto liquidity providers may be less active in past losers. Supporting these observations, we find that active institutions participate less in losing stocks, and that the magnitude of monthly return reversals fluctuates with changes in the number of active institutional investors. Thus, we argue that fluctuations in liquidity provision with past return performance accounts for the link between return reversals and past returns.

Microstructural evolution and mechanical properties of short-term thermally exposed 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels

The microstructural evolution during short-term (up to 3000 hours) thermal exposure of three 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels was studied, as well as the mechanical properties after exposure. The tempered martensitic lath structure, as well as the precipitation of carbide and MX type carbonitrides in the steel matrix, was stable after 3000 hours of exposure at 873 K (600 °C). A microstructure observation showed that during the short-term thermal exposure process, the change of mechanical properties was caused mainly by the formation and growth of Laves-phase precipitates in the steels. On thermal exposure, with an increase of cobalt and tungsten contents, cobalt could promote the segregation of tungsten along the martensite lath to form Laves phase, and a large size and high density of Laves-phase precipitates along the grain boundaries could lead to the brittle intergranular fracture of the steels.

Cyclosporin A and short-term methotrexate versus cyclosporin A as graft versus host disease prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia given allogeneic bone marrow transplantation from an HLA-identical sibling:results of a GITMO/EBMT randomized trial

A randomized trial was carried out comparing cyclosporin A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate (MTX) versus CsA alone for graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) from a compatible sibling. Seventy-one patients (median age, 19 years; range, 4-46 years) were randomized to receive either CsA and MTX or CsA alone for the first 3 weeks after BMT. Subsequently, both groups received CsA orally, with gradual drug reduction until discontinuation 8 to 12 months after BMT. Patients randomized in both arms had comparable characteristics and received the same preparative regimen (ie, cyclophosphamide 200 mg/kg over 4 days). The median time for neutrophil engraftment was 17 days (range, 11-31 days) and 12 days (range, 4-45 days) for patients in the CsA/MTX group and the CsA alone group, respectively (P =.01). No significant difference was observed in the probability of either grade 2, grade 3, or grade 4 acute GVHD or chronic GVHD developing in the 2 groups. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of 1-year transplantation-related mortality rates for patients given either CsA/MTX or CsA alone were 3% and 15%, respectively (P =.07). With a median follow-up of 48 months from BMT, the 5-year survival probability is 94% for patients in the CsA/MTX group and 78% for those in the CsA alone group (P =. 05). These data indicate that the use of CsA with MTX is associated with improved survival in patients with SAA who receive transplants from compatible siblings. (Blood. 2000;96:1690-1697)

Designing Short Term Wave Traces to Assess Wave Power Devices

In recent years modern numerical methods have been employed in the design of Wave Energy Converters (WECs), however the high computational costs associated with their use makes it prohibitive to undertake simulations involving statistically relevant numbers of wave cycles. Experimental tests in wave tanks could also be performed more efficiently and economically if short time traces, consisting of only a few wave cycles, could be used to evaluate the hydrodynamic characteristics of a particular device or design modification. Ideally, accurate estimations of device performance could be made utilizing results obtained from investigations with a relatively small number of wave cycles. However the difficulty here is that many WECs, such as the Oscillating Wave Surge Converter (OWSC), exhibit significant non-linearity in their response. Thus it is challenging to make accurate predictions of annual energy yield for a given spectral sea state using short duration realisations of that sea. This is because the non-linear device response to particular phase couplings of sinusoidal components within those time traces might influence the estimate of mean power capture obtained. As a result it is generally accepted that the most appropriate estimate of mean power capture for a sea state be obtained over many hundreds (or thousands) of wave cycles. This ensures that the potential influence of phase locking is negligible in comparison to the predictions made. In this paper, potential methods of providing reasonable estimates of relative variations in device performance using short duration sea states are introduced. The aim of the work is to establish the shortness of sea state required to provide statistically significant estimations of the mean power capture of a particular type of Wave Energy Converter. The results show that carefully selected wave traces can be used to reliably assess variations in power output due to changes in the hydrodynamic design or wave climate. 

Coupling short-term (B2G model) and long-term (g-function) models for ground source heat exchanger simulation in TRNSYS. Application in a real installation

Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems represent one of the most promising techniques for heating and cooling in buildings. These systems use the ground as a heat source/sink, allowing a better efficiency thanks to the low variations of the ground temperature along the seasons. The ground-source heat exchanger (GSHE) then becomes a key component for optimizing the overall performance of the system. Moreover, the short-term response related to the dynamic behaviour of the GSHE is a crucial aspect, especially from a regulation criteria perspective in on/off controlled GSHP systems. In this context, a novel numerical GSHE model has been developed at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética, Universitat Politècnica de València. Based on the decoupling of the short-term and the long-term response of the GSHE, the novel model allows the use of faster and more precise models on both sides. In particular, the short-term model considered is the B2G model, developed and validated in previous research works conducted at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética. For the long-term, the g-function model was selected, since it is a previously validated and widely used model, and presents some interesting features that are useful for its combination with the B2G model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the procedure of combining these two models in order to obtain a unique complete GSHE model for both short- and long-term simulation. The resulting model is then validated against experimental data from a real GSHP installation.

Is the raised volume rapid thoracic compression technique ready for use in clinical trials in infants with cystic fibrosis?

The European Cystic Fibrosis Society Clinical Trial Network (ECFS-CTN) has established a Standardization Committee to undertake a rigorous evaluation of promising outcome measures with regard to use in multicentre clinical trials in cystic fibrosis (CF). The aim of this article is to present a review of literature on clinimetric properties of the infant raised-volume rapid thoracic compression (RVRTC) technique in the context of CF, to summarise the consensus amongst the group on feasibility and answer key questions regarding the promotion of this technique to surrogate endpoint status.

METHODS: A literature search (from 1985 onwards) identified 20 papers that met inclusion criteria of RVRTC use in infants with CF. Data were extracted and tabulated regarding repeatability, validity, correlation with other outcome measures, responsiveness and reference values. A working group discussed the tables and answered 4 key questions.

RESULTS: Overall, RVRTC in particular forced expiratory volume in 0.5s, showed good clinimetric properties despite presence of individual variability. Few studies showed a relationship between RVRTC and inflammation and infection, and to date, data remains limited regarding the responsiveness of RVRTC after an intervention. Concerns were raised regarding feasibility in multi-centre studies and availability of reference values.

CONCLUSION: The ECFS-CTN Working Group considers that RVRTC cannot be used as a primary outcome in clinical trials in infants with CF before universal standardization of this measurement is achieved and implementation of inter-institutional networking is in place. We advise its use currently in phase I/II trials and as a secondary endpoint in phase III studies. We emphasise the need for (1) more short-term variability and longitudinal 'natural history' studies, and (2) robust reference values for commercially available devices.

Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Stroma-free hemoglobin increases blood pressure and GFR in the hypotensive rat: role of nitric oxide.

The short-term systemic and renal hemodynamic effects of two stroma-free hemoglobin (SFH) solutions, one unmodified and the other modified by cross-linking, were examined in anesthetized rats after hemorrhagic hypotension. Both forms of SFH increased mean arterial pressure (MAP) and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to baseline (prehemorrhage) values. The increase in MAP induced by unmodified SFH was greater than the increase in MAP caused by an albumin solution isoncotic to the unmodified SFH solution. Similarly, the increase in MAP caused by the modified SFH was also substantially greater than that induced by an albumin solution of comparable oncotic pressure to the modified SFH solution. Both unmodified and modified SFH increased GFR. As with MAP, the increase in GFR induced by both SFH solutions was greater than that associated with the oncotically matched albumin solutions. In separate experiments, the effects of nitric oxide (NO) inhibition with N omega-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) on MAP after hemorrhagic hypotension and subsequent infusion of unmodified SFH or albumin were also examined. In the albumin-infused rats, L-NAME increased MAP. In marked contrast, NO inhibition with L-NAME had no further effect on MAP when infused after SFH. We conclude that both unmodified and modified SFH solutions acutely improve MAP and GFR by the combined effects of intravascular volume expansion resulting from the colloid effect of the protein and by inactivation of NO.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.

Predation in the marine intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus Leach: implications of inter- and intra-individual variation

Studies of competition, predator–prey dynamics and food webs typically consider conspecifics as equal, however, individuals from the same population that are seemingly identical can show considerable variation with regards to a number of processes. Such phenomena may be demonstrated in terms of diet, and the quantities and types of resources that are consumed are commonly considered. The marine amphipod Echinogammarus marinus, a recently demonstrated predator on intertidal rocky shores, has been shown to consume a wide range of food types but it is unknown how this may vary between individuals. Here, we investigated the variation that occurs both among and within individuals of a population of E. marinus with respect to the mean numbers consumed of a common prey item, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, by comparing the length of starvation times, used as a proxy for hunger level, individuals maintained without food for up to 24 h consumed significantly less prey during feeding trials than those starved for 48 h and longer. The degree of inter-individual variation within each starvation period was also found to differ, with greater variation among individuals starved for shorter periods of time than those starved for longer time periods. Secondly, we tested whether individual amphipods tracked over time consumed consistently similar numbers of prey or whether they showed intra-individual variation, and if so, to what degree. We found that the numbers of prey consumed per individual could be predicted in the short-term between consecutive feeding trials, however over the long-term this relationship broke down. These results are discussed with respect to potential physiological and behavioural mechanisms, as well as the implications that such variation may have for stability of prey populations in the field.

Imaging and radiation effects of gold nanoparticles in tumour cells

Gold nanoparticle radiosensitization represents a novel technique in enhancement of ionising radiation dose and its effect on biological systems. Variation between theoretical predictions and experimental measurement is significant enough that the mechanism leading to an increase in cell killing and DNA damage is still not clear. We present the first experimental results that take into account both the measured biodistribution of gold nanoparticles at the cellular level and the range of the product electrons responsible for energy deposition. Combining synchrotron-generated monoenergetic X-rays, intracellular gold particle imaging and DNA damage assays, has enabled a DNA damage model to be generated that includes the production of intermediate electrons. We can therefore show for the first time good agreement between the prediction of biological outcomes from both the Local Effect Model and a DNA damage model with experimentally observed cell killing and DNA damage induction via the combination of X-rays and GNPs. However, the requirement of two distinct models as indicated by this mechanistic study, one for short-term DNA damage and another for cell survival, indicates that, at least for nanoparticle enhancement, it is not safe to equate the lethal lesions invoked in the local effect model with DNA damage events.