Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Blood pressure lowering in patients without prior cerebrovascular disease for prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia

Background: This is an update of a previous review (McGuinness 2006). Hypertension and cognitive impairment are prevalent in older people. Hypertension is a direct risk factor for vascular dementia (VaD) and recent studies have suggested hypertension impacts upon prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Therefore does treatment of hypertension prevent cognitive decline?
Objectives: To assess the effects of blood pressure lowering treatments for the prevention of dementia and cognitive decline in patients with hypertension but no history of cerebrovascular disease.
Search strategy: The Specialized Register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group, The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, LILACS as well as many trials databases and grey literature sources were searched on 13 February 2008 using the terms: hypertens$ OR anti-hypertens$. Selection criteria: Randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trials in which pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions to lower blood pressure were given for at least six months.
Data collection and analysis: Two independent reviewers assessed trial quality and extracted data. The following outcomes were assessed: incidence of dementia, cognitive change from baseline, blood pressure level, incidence and severity of side effects and quality of life.
Main results: Four trials including 15,936 hypertensive subjects were identified. Average age was 75.4 years. Mean blood pressure at entry across the studies was 171/86 mmHg. The combined result of the four trials reporting incidence of dementia indicated no significant difference between treatment and placebo (236/7767 versus 259/7660, Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.89, 95% CI 0.74, 1.07) and there was considerable heterogeneity between the trials. The combined results from the three trials reporting change in Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) did not indicate a benefit from treatment (Weighted Mean Difference (WMD) = 0.42, 95%CI 0.30, 0.53). Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels were reduced significantly in the three trials assessing this outcome (WMD = -10.22, 95% CI -10.78, -9.66 for systolic blood pressure, WMD = -4.28, 95% CI -4.58, -3.98 for diastolic blood pressure). Three trials reported adverse effects requiring discontinuation of treatment and the combined results indicated no significant difference (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.92, 1.11). When analysed separately, however, more patients on placebo in Syst Eur 1997 were likely to discontinue treatment due to side effects; the converse was true in SHEP 1991. Quality of life data could not be analysed in the four studies. Analysis of the included studies in this review was problematic as many of the control subjects received antihypertensive treatment because their blood pressures exceeded pre-set values. In most cases the study became a comparison between the study drug against a usual antihypertensive regimen.
Authors' conclusions: There is no convincing evidence fromthe trials identified that blood pressure lowering in late-life prevents the development of dementia or cognitive impairment in hypertensive patients with no apparent prior cerebrovascular disease. There were significant problems identified with analysing the data, however, due to the number of patients lost to follow-up and the number of placebo patients who received active treatment. This introduced bias. More robust results may be obtained by conducting a meta-analysis using individual patient data.

Genetic susceptibility to invasive meningococcal disease: MBL2 structural polymorphisms revisited in a large case–control study and a systematic review

Invasive infection caused by Neisseria meningitidis is a worldwide public health problem. Previous reports have indicated that carriage of common ‘defective’ structural polymorphisms of the host mannose-binding lectin gene (MBL2) greatly increases an individual’s risk of developing the disease. We report the largest case–control study so far to investigate the effect of these polymorphisms in meningococcal disease (296 PCR-positive cases and 5196 population controls, all of European ancestry) and demonstrate that no change in risk is associated with the polymorphisms overall or in any age-defined subgroup. This finding contrasts with two smaller studies that reported an increase in risk. A systematic review of all studies of MBL2 polymorphisms in people of European ancestry published since 1999, including 24 693 individuals, revealed a population frequency of the combined ‘defective’MBL2 allele of 0.230 (95% confidence limits: 0.226–0.234). The past reported associations of increased risk of meningococcal disease were because of low ‘defective’ allele frequencies in their study control populations (0.13 and 0.04) that indicate systematic problems with the studies. The data from our study and all other available evidence indicate that MBL2 structural polymorphisms do not predispose children or adults to invasive meningococcal disease.

Genetic susceptibility to invasive meningococcal disease: MBL2 structural polymorphisms revisited in a large case-control study and a systematic review.

AbstractInvasive infection caused by Neisseria meningitidis is a worldwide public health problem. Previous reports have indicated that carriage of common 'defective' structural polymorphisms of the host mannose-binding lectin gene (MBL2) greatly increases an individual's risk of developing the disease. We report the largest case-control study so far to investigate the effect of these polymorphisms in meningococcal disease (296 PCR-positive cases and 5196 population controls, all of European ancestry) and demonstrate that no change in risk is associated with the polymorphisms overall or in any age-defined subgroup. This finding contrasts with two smaller studies that reported an increase in risk. A systematic review of all studies of MBL2 polymorphisms in people of European ancestry published since 1999, including 24 693 individuals, revealed a population frequency of the combined 'defective'MBL2 allele of 0.230 (95% confidence limits: 0.226-0.234). The past reported associations of increased risk of meningococcal disease were because of low 'defective' allele frequencies in their study control populations (0.13 and 0.04) that indicate systematic problems with the studies. The data from our study and all other available evidence indicate that MBL2 structural polymorphisms do not predispose children or adults to invasive meningococcal disease.

Intra-epithelial T cells in coeliac disease

Coeliac disease is an enteropathy associated with dietary gluten which occurs in individuals with a genetic predisposition. The pathogenesis remains obscure although it is clear that only certain parts of the gliadin molecule are toxic and there is considerable evidence of immunological activity, including antibody production. In this issue of European Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Carton et al. present evidence in favour of an inherent depletion of CD4CD8 T cells, which could result in a loss of oral tolerance to ingested gliadin. Using flow cytometry they also demonstrated that the classic T-cell infiltration of coeliac disease is not due to an increase in T cells but is an apparent increase associated with a relative decrease in enterocytes as a result of the change in architecture of the mucosa. These could be important fundamental observations in helping to unravel the pathogenesis of coeliac disease.

Plasma chain-breaking antioxidants in Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia and Parkinson's disease

We studied the plasma chain-breaking antioxidants alpha carotene, beta carotene, lycopene, Vitamin A, Vitamin C, Vitamin E and a measure of total antioxidant capacity, TAC, in 79 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), 37 patients with vascular dementia (VaD), 18 patients with Parkinson's disease and dementia (PDem), and 58 matching controls, together with 41 patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and 41 matching controls. Significant reductions in individual antioxidants were observed in all dementia groups. When compared to controls, the following were reduced: Vitamin A in AD (p <0.01) and VaD (p <0.001); Vitamin C in AD (p <0.001), VaD (p <0.001) and PDem (p <0.01); Vitamin E in AD (p <0.01) and VaD (p <0.001); beta carotene in VaD (p = 0.01); lycopene in PDem (p <0.001). Lycopene was also reduced in PDem compared to AD (p <0.001) and VaD (p <0.001). Antioxidant levels in PD were not depleted. No significant change in TAC was seen in any group. The reduction in plasma chain-breaking antioxidants in patients with dementia may reflect an increased free-radical activity, and a common role in cognitive impairment in these conditions. Increased free-radical activity in VaD and PDem could be associated with concomitant AD pathology. Individual antioxidant changes are not reflected in TAC.

Balancing Inflammatory, Lipid, and Xenobiotic Signaling Pathways by VSL#3, a Biotherapeutic Agent, in the Treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Background: The interleukin 10 knockout mouse (IL10-KO) is a model of human inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) used to Study host microbial interactions and the action of potential therapeutics. Using Affymetrix data analysis, important signaling pathways and transcription factors relevant to gut inflammation and antiinflammatory probiotics were identified.

Methods: Affymetrix microarray analysis on both wildtype (WT) and IL10-KO mice orally administered with and without the probiotic VSL#3 was performed and the results validated by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), immunocytochemistry, proteomics, and histopathology. Changes in metabolically active bacteria were assessed with denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE).

Results: Inflammation in IL10-KO mice was characterized by differential regulation of inflammatory, nuclear receptor, lipid, and xenobiotic signaling pathways. Probiotic intervention resulted in downregulation of CXCL9 (fold change [FC] = -3.98, false discovery rate [FDR] = 0.019), CXCL10 (FC = -4.83, FDR = 0.0008), CCL5 (FC -3.47 FDR = 0.017), T-cell activation (Itgal [FC = -4.72, FDR = 0.00009], Itgae [FC = -2.54 FDR = 0.0044]) and the autophagy gene IRGM (FC = -1.94, FDR = 0.01), a recently identified susceptibility gene in human IBD. Consistent with a marked reduction in integrins, probiotic treatment decreased the number of CCL5+ CD3+ double-positive T Cells and upregulated galectin2, which triggers apoptosis of activated T cells. Importantly, genes associated with lipid and PPAR signaling (PPAR alpha [FC = 2.36, FDR = 0.043], PPARGC1 alpha [FC 2.58, FDR = 0.016], Nrld2 [FC = 3.11, FDR = 0.0067]) were also upregulated. Altered microbial diversity was noted in probiotic-treated mice.

Conclusions: Bioinformatics analysis revealed important immune response. phagocytic and inflammatory pathways dominated by elevation of T-helper cell 1 type (TH1) transcription factors in IL10-KO mice. Probiotic intervention resulted in a site-specific reduction of these pathways but importantly upregulated PPAR, xenobiotic, and lipid signaling genes. potential antagonists of NF-kappa B inflammatory pathways.

A qualitative study of the relationship between clinician attributes, organization, and patient characteristics on implementation of a disease management program

The purpose of this study was to examine the challenges of integrating an asthma disease management (DM) program into a primary care setting from the perspective of primary care practitioners. A second goal was to examine whether barriers differed between urban-based and nonurban-based practices. Using a qualitative design, data were gathered using focus groups in primary care pediatric practices. A purposeful sample included an equal number of urban and nonurban practices. Participants represented all levels in the practice setting. Important themes that emerged from the data were coded and categorized. A total of 151 individuals, including physicians, advanced practice clinicians, registered nurses, other medical staff, and nonmedical staff participated in 16 focus groups that included 8 urban and 8 nonurban practices. Content analyses identified 4 primary factors influencing the implementation of a DM program in a primary care setting. They were related to providers, the organization, patients, and characteristics of the DM program. This study illustrates the complexity of the primary care environment and the challenge of changing practice in these settings. The results of this study identified areas in a primary care setting that influence the adoption of a DM program. These findings can assist in identifying effective strategies to change clinical behavior in primary care practices. © 2008 Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Organizational Attributes of Practices Successful at a Disease Management Program

Objective: To assess the contribution of organizational factors to implementation of 3 asthma quality measures: enrollment in a disease management program, development of a written treatment plan, and prescription of severity-appropriate anti-inflammatory therapy. Study design: A total of 138 pediatric clinicians and 247 office staff in 13 urban clinics and 23 nonurban private practices completed questionnaires about their practice's organizational characteristics (eg, leadership, communication, perceived effectiveness, job satisfaction). Results: 94% of the clinicians and 92% of the office staff completed questionnaires. When adjusted for confounders, greater practice activity and perceived effectiveness in meeting family needs were associated with higher rates of enrollment in the Easy Breathing program, whereas higher scores for 3 organizational characteristics-communication timeliness, decision authority, and job satisfaction-were associated with both higher enrollment and a greater number of written treatment plans. None of the organizational characteristics was associated with greater use of anti-inflammatory therapy. Conclusions: Three organizational characteristics predicted 2 quality asthma measures: use of a disease management program and creation of a written asthma treatment plan. If these organizational characteristics were amenable to change, then our findings could help focus interventions in areas of effective and acceptable organizational change. © 2009 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of climate change on ovine parasitic gastroenteritis determined using veterinary surveillance and meteorological data for Northern Ireland over the period 1999-2009

While the influence of temperature and moisture on the free-living stages of gastrointestinal nematodes have been described in detail, and evidence for global climate change is mounting, there have been only a few attempts to relate altered incidence or seasonal patterns of disease to climate change. Studies of this type have been completed for England Scotland and Wales, but not for Northern Ireland (NI). Here we present an analysis of veterinary diagnostic data that relates three categories of gastrointestinal nematode infection in sheep to historical meteorological data for NI. The infections are: trichostrongylosis/teladorsagiosis (Teladorsagia/Trichostrongylus), strongyloidosis and nematodirosis. This study aims to provide a baseline for future climate change analyses and to provide basic information for the development of nematode control programmes. After identifying and evaluating possible sources of bias, climate change was found to be the most likely explanation for the observed patterns of change in parasite epidemiology, although other hypotheses could not be refuted. Seasonal rates of diagnosis showed a uniform year-round distribution for Teladorsagia and Trichostrongylus infections, suggesting consistent levels of larval survival throughout the year and extension of the traditionally expected seasonal transmission windows. Nematodirosis showed a higher level of autumn than Spring infection, suggesting that suitable conditions for egg and larval development occurred after the Spring infection period. Differences between regions within the Province were shown for strongyloidosis, with peaks of infection falling in the period September-November. For all three-infection categories (trichostrongylosis/teladorsagiosis, strongyloidosis and nematodirosis), significant differences in the rates of diagnosis, and in the seasonality of disease, were identified between regions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programs, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals’ baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

Synovial membrane protein expression differs between juvenile idiopathic arthritis subtypes in early disease

Introduction: Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is the most common rheumatological disease of childhood with a prevalence of around 1 in 1000. Without appropriate treatment it can have devastating consequences including permanent disability from joint destruction and growth deformities. Disease aetiology remains unknown. Investigation of disease pathology at the level of the synovial membrane is required if we want to begin to understand the disease at the molecular and biochemical level. The synovial membrane proteome from early disease-stage, treatment naive JIA patients was compared between polyarticular and oligoarticular subgroups.

Methods: Protein was extracted from 15 newly diagnosed, treatment naive JIA synovial membrane biopsies and separated by two dimensional fluorescent difference in-gel electrophoresis. Proteins displaying a two-fold or greater change in expression levels between the two subgroups were identified by matrix assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry with expression further verified by Western blotting and immunohistochemistry.

Results: Analysis of variance analysis (P <= 0.05) revealed 25 protein spots with a two-fold or greater difference in expression levels between polyarticular and oligoarticular patients. Hierarchical cluster analysis with Pearson ranked correlation revealed two distinctive clusters of proteins. Some of the proteins that were differentially expressed included: integrin alpha 2b (P = 0.04); fibrinogen D fragment (P =0.005); collagen type VI (P = 0.03); fibrinogen gamma chain (P = 0.05) and peroxiredoxin 2 (P = 0.02). The identified proteins are involved in a number of different processes including platelet activation and the coagulation system.

Conclusions: The data indicates distinct synovial membrane proteome profiles between JIA subgroups at an early stage in the disease process. The identified proteins also provide insight into differentially perturbed pathways which could influence pathological events at the joint level.

Potential impacts of climate change on veterinary medicinal residues in livestock produce: An island of Ireland perspective

Residues of veterinary medicines are a food safety issue regulated by European legislation. The occurrence of animal diseases necessitating application of veterinary medicines is significantly affected by global and local climate changes. This review assesses potential impacts of climate change on residues in food produced on the island of Ireland. Use of various classes of veterinary drugs in light of predicted local climate change is reviewed with particular emphasis on anthelmintic drugs and consideration is given to residues accumulating in the environment. Veterinary medicine use is predicted to increase as disease burdens increase due to varied climate effects. Locally relevant mitigation and adaptation strategies are suggested to ensure climate change does not adversely affect food safety via increasing drug residues.

Comparing the decline in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in neighbouring countries with different healthcare systems

Objective
To examine age and gender specific trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in two neighbouring countries, the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI). Design Epidemiological study of time trends in CHD and stroke mortality.

Setting/patients
The populations of the ROI and NI, 1985–2010.

Interventions
None.

Main outcome measures
Directly age standardised CHD and stroke mortality rates were calculated and analysed using joinpoint regression to identify years where the slope of the linear trend changed significantly. This was performed separately for specific age groups (25–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75–84 years) and by gender. Annual percentage change (APC) and 95% CIs are presented.

Results
There was a striking similarity between the two countries, with percentage change between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 of 67% and 69% in
CHD mortality, and 64% and 62% in stroke mortality for the ROI and NI, respectively. However, joinpoint analysis identified differences in the pace of change between the two countries. There was an accelerated pace of decline (negative APC) in mortality for both CHD and stroke in both countries from the mid-1990s (APC ROI −8% (95% CI −9.5 to 6.5) and NI −6.6% (−6.9 to −6.3)), but the accelerated decrease started later for CHD mortality in the ROI. In recent years, a levelling off in CHD mortality was observed in the 25–54 year age group in NI and in stroke mortality for men and women in the ROI.

Conclusions
While differences in the pace of change in mortality were observed at different time points, similar, substantial decreases in CHD and stroke mortality were achieved between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 in the ROI and NI despite important differences in health service structures. There is evidence of a levelling in mortality rates in some groups in recent years.

Could occupational physical activity mitigate the link between moderate kidney dysfunction and coronary heart disease?

Background

Chronic kidney disease is now regarded as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The impact of occupational or non-occupational physical activity (PA) on moderate decreases of renal function is uncertain.

We aimed to identify the potential association of PA (occupational and leisure-time) on early decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and to determine the potential mediating effect of PA on the relationship between eGFR and heart disease.

From the PRIME study analyses were conducted in 1058 employed men. Energy expended during leisure, work and commuting was calculated. Linear regression analyses were used to determine the link between types of PA and moderate decrements of eGFR determined with the KDIGO guideline at the baseline assessment. Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to explore the potential effect of PA on the relationship between eGFR and heart disease, ascertained during follow-up over 10 years.

For these employed men, and after adjustment for known confounders of GFR change, more time spent sitting at work was associated with increased risk of moderate decline in kidney function, while carrying objects or being active at work was associated with decreased risk. In contrast, no significant link with leisure PA was apparent. No potential mediating effect of occupational PA was found for the relationship between eGFR and coronary heart disease.

Occupational PA (potential modifiable factors) could provide a dual role on early impairment of renal function, without influence on the relationship between early decrease of e-GFR and CHD risk.