Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Glacial to paraglacial history and forest recovery in the Oglio glacier system (Italian Alps) between 26 and 15 ka cal BP

The integrated stratigraphic, radiocarbon and palynological record from an end-moraine system of the Oglio valley glacier (Italian Alps), propagating a lobe upstream in a lateral reach, provided evidence for a complete cycle of glacial advance, culmination and withdrawal during the Last Glacial Maximum and early Lateglacial. The glacier culminated in the end moraine shortly after 25.8 +/- 0.8 ka cal BP, and cleared the valley floor 18.3-17.2 +/- 0.3 ka cal BP. A primary paraglacial phase is then recorded by fast progradation of the valley floor.

As early as 16.7 +/- 0.3 ka cal BP, early stabilization of alluvial fans and lake filling promoted expansion of cembran pine. This is an unprecedented evidence of direct tree response to depletion of paraglacial activity during the early Lateglacial, and also documents the cembran pine survival in the mountain belt of the Italian Alps during the last glaciation. Between 16.1 and 14.6 +/- 0.5 ka cal BP, debris cones emplacement points to a moisture increase favouring tree Betula and Pinus sylvestris-mugo. A climate perturbation renewed paraglacial activity. According to cosmogenic ages on glacial deposits and AMS radiocarbon ages from lake records in South-Eastern Alps such phase compares favourably with the Gschnitz stadial and with the oscillations recorded at lakes Ragogna. Langsee and Jeserzersee, most probably forced by the latest freshening phases of the Heinrich Event 1.

A further sharp pine rise marks the subsequent onset of Bolling interstadial. The chronology of the Oglio glacier compares closely with major piedmont glaciers on the Central and Eastern Alpine forelands. On the other hand, the results of the present study imply a chronostratigraphic re-assessment of the recent geological mapping of the Central Italian Alps. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anisotropy of single crystal 3C-SiC during nanometric cutting

3C–SiC (the only polytype of SiC that resides in a diamond cubic lattice structure) is a relatively new material that exhibits most of the desirable engineering properties required for advanced electronic applications. The anisotropy exhibited by 3C–SiC during its nanometric cutting is significant, and the potential for its exploitation has yet to be fully investigated. This paper aims to understand the influence of crystal anisotropy of 3C–SiC on its cutting behaviour. A molecular dynamics simulation model was developed to simulate the nanometric cutting of single-crystal 3C–SiC in nine (9) distinct combinations of crystal orientations and cutting directions, i.e. (1?1?1) <-1?1?0>, (1?1?1) <-2?1?1>, (1?1?0) <-1?1?0>, (1?1?0) <0?0?1>, (1?1?0) <1?1?-2>, (0?0?1) <-1?1?0>, (0?0?1) <1?0?0>, (1?1?-2) <1?-1?0> and (1?-2?0) <2?1?0>.

In order to ensure the reliability of the simulation results, two separate simulation trials were carried out with different machining parameters. In the first trial, a cutting tool rake angle of -25°, d/r (uncut chip thickness/cutting edge radius) ratio of 0.57 and cutting velocity of 10 m s-1 were used whereas a second trial was done using a cutting tool rake angle of -30°, d/r ratio of 1 and cutting velocity of 4 m s-1. Both the trials showed similar anisotropic variation.

The simulated orthogonal components of thrust force in 3C–SiC showed a variation of up to 45%, while the resultant cutting forces showed a variation of 37%. This suggests that 3C–SiC is highly anisotropic in its ease of deformation. These results corroborate with the experimentally observed anisotropic variation of 43.6% in Young's modulus of 3C–SiC. The recently developed dislocation extraction algorithm (DXA) [1, 2] was employed to detect the nucleation of dislocations in the MD simulations of varying cutting orientations and cutting directions. Based on the overall analysis, it was found that 3C–SiC offers ease of deformation on either (1?1?1) <-1?1?0>, (1?1?0) <0?0?1>, or (1?0?0) <1?0?0> setups.

Shear instability of nanocrystalline silicon carbide during nanometric cutting

The shear instability of the nanoscrystalline 3C-SiC during nanometric cutting at a cutting speed of 100?m/s has been investigated using molecular dynamics simulation. The deviatoric stress in the cutting zone was found to cause sp3-sp2 disorder resulting in the local formation of SiC-graphene and Herzfeld-Mott transitions of 3C-SiC at much lower transition pressures than that required under pure compression. Besides explaining the ductility of SiC at 1500?K, this is a promising phenomenon in general nanoscale engineering of SiC. It shows that modifying the tetrahedral bonding of 3C-SiC, which would otherwise require sophisticated pressure cells, can be achieved more easily by introducing non-hydrostatic stress conditions.

Multiscale simulation of nanometric cutting of single crystal copper and its experimental validation

In this paper a multiscale simulation study was carried out in order to gain in-depth understanding of machining mechanism of nanometric cutting of single crystal copper. This study was focused on the effects of crystal orientation and cutting direction on the attainable machined surface quality. The machining mechanics was analyzed through cutting forces, chip formation morphology, generation and evolution of defects and residual stresses on the machined surface. The simulation results showed that the crystal orientation of the copper material and the cutting direction significantly influenced the deformation mechanism of the workpiece materials during the machining process. Relatively lower cutting forces were experienced while selecting crystal orientation family {1 1 1}. Dislocation movements were found to concentrate in front of the cutting chip while cutting on the (1 1 1) surface along the View the MathML source cutting direction thus, resulting in much smaller damaged layer on the machined surface, compared to other orientations. This crystal orientation and cutting direction therefore recommended for nanometric cutting of single crystal copper in practical applications. A nano-scratching experiment was performed to validate the above findings.

Influence of microstructure on the cutting behaviour of silicon

We use molecular dynamics simulation to study the mechanisms of plasticity during cutting of monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon. Three scenarios are considered: (i) cutting a single crystal silicon workpiece with a single crystal diamond tool, (ii) cutting a polysilicon workpiece with a single crystal diamond tool, and (iii) cutting a single crystal silicon workpiece with a polycrystalline diamond tool. A long-range analytical bond order potential is used in the simulations, providing a more accurate picture of the atomic-scale mechanisms of brittle fracture, ductile plasticity, and structural changes in silicon. The MD simulation results show a unique phenomenon of brittle cracking typically inclined at an angle of 45° to 55° to the cut surface, leading to the formation of periodic arrays of nanogrooves in monocrystalline silicon, which is a new insight into previously published results. Furthermore, during cutting, silicon is found to undergo solid-state directional amorphisation without prior Si-I to Si-II (beta tin) transformation, which is in direct contrast to many previously published MD studies on this topic. Our simulations also predict that the propensity for amorphisation is significantly higher in single crystal silicon than in polysilicon, signifying that grain boundaries eases the material removal process.

Simulation of three-dimension cutting force and tool deflection in the end milling operation based on finite element method

This paper presents a 3D simulation system which is employed in order to predict cutting forces and tool deflection during end-milling operation. In order to verify the accuracy of 3D simulation, results (cutting forces and tool deflection) were compared with those based on the theoretical relationships, in terms of agreement with experiments. The results obtained indicate that the simulation is capable of predicting the cutting forces and tool deflection.

Is a single item stress measure independently associated with subsequent severe injury: a prospective cohort study of 16,385 forest industry employees

Background: A previous review showed that high stress increases the risk of occupational injury by three- to five-fold. However, most of the prior studies have relied on short follow-ups. In this prospective cohort study we examined the effect of stress on recorded hospitalised injuries in an 8-year follow-up.
Methods: A total of 16,385 employees of a Finnish forest company responded to the questionnaire. Perceived stress was measured with a validated single-item measure, and analysed in relation recorded hospitalised injuries from 1986 to 2008. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to examine the prospective associations between work stress, injuries and confounding factors.
Results: Highly stressed participants were approximately 40% more likely to be hospitalised due to injury over the follow-up period than participants with low stress. This association remained significant after adjustment for age, gender, marital status, occupational status, educational level, and physical work environment.
Conclusions: High stress is associated with an increased risk of severe injury.

A Late Pleistocene record of climate and environmental change from the northern and southern Kelabit Highlands of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo

A late Pleistocene vegetation record is presented, using multi-proxy analysis from three palaeochannels in the northern (Bario) and southern (Pa'Dalih) Kelabit Highlands of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. Before 50 000 cal a BP and until approximate to 47 700 cal a BP [marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3)], two of the sites were probably being influenced by energetic fluvial deposition, possibly associated with strong seasonality. Fluvial activity declines between 47 700 and 30 000 cal a BP (MIS3), and may be associated with a reduction in seasonality with overall stability in precipitation. The pollen record between 47 700 and 30 000 cal a BP generally shows much higher representation of upper-montane taxa compared with the Holocene, indicating often significantly reduced temperatures. After 35 000-30 000 cal a BP and until the mid-Holocene, hiatuses appear in two of the records, which could be linked to fluvial down-cutting during the late/mid Holocene. Despite the jump in ages, a pronounced representation of Ericaceae and upper-montane taxa, represented both at Bario and at Pa'Dalih, corresponds to a further lowering of temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum (MIS2). Thick charcoal bands in the PDH 210 record also suggest periods of extreme aridity between 30 200 and 12 700 cal a BP. This is followed by energetic fluvial deposition of sands and gravels, and may reflect a significant increase in seasonality.