Semiring induced valuation algebras: Exact and approximate local computation algorithms

Local computation in join trees or acyclic hypertrees has been shown to be linked to a particular algebraic structure, called valuation algebra.There are many models of this algebraic structure ranging from probability theory to numerical analysis, relational databases and various classical and non-classical logics. It turns out that many interesting models of valuation algebras may be derived from semiring valued mappings. In this paper we study how valuation algebras are induced by semirings and how the structure of the valuation algebra is related to the algebraic structure of the semiring. In particular, c-semirings with idempotent multiplication induce idempotent valuation algebras and therefore permit particularly efficient architectures for local computation. Also important are semirings whose multiplicative semigroup is embedded in a union of groups. They induce valuation algebras with a partially defined division. For these valuation algebras, the well-known architectures for Bayesian networks apply. We also extend the general computational framework to allow derivation of bounds and approximations, for when exact computation is not feasible.

A long-term analysis of pumped hydro storage to firm wind power

Although pumped hydro storage is seen as a strategic key asset by grid operators, financing it is complicated in new liberalised markets. It could be argued that the optimum generation portfolio is now determined by the economic viability of generators based on a short to medium term return on investment. This has meant that capital intensive projects such as pumped hydro storage are less attractive for wholesale electricity companies because the payback periods are too long. In tandem a significant amount of wind power has entered the generation mix, which has resulted in operating and planning integration issues due to wind's inherent uncertain, varying spatial and temporal nature. These integration issues can be overcome using fast acting gas peaking plant or energy storage. Most analysis of wind power integration using storage to date has used stochastic optimisation for power system balancing or arbitrage modelling to examine techno-economic viability. In this research a deterministic dynamic programming long term generation expansion model is employed to optimise the generation mix, total system costs and total carbon dioxide emissions, and unlike other studies calculates reserve to firm wind power. The key finding of this study is that the incentive to build capital-intensive pumped hydro storage to firm wind power is limited unless exogenous market costs come very strongly into play. Furthermore it was demonstrated that reserve increases with increasing wind power showing the importance of ancillary services in future power systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequence Effects in the Valuation of Multiple Environmental Programs Using the Contingent Valuation Method

In contingent valuation, the willingness to pay for hypothetical programs may be affected by the order in which programs are presented to respondents. With inclusive lists, economic theory suggests that sequence effects should be expected. However, when policy makers allocate public budgets to several environmental programs, they may be interested in assessing the value of the programs without the valuations being affected by the order in which the programs are presented. Using single-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions, we show that if respondents have the possibility to revise their willingness-to-pay answers, sequence effects are mitigated. (JEL Q51, Q54)