Lake restoration in terms of ecological resilience: a numerical study of biomanipulations under bistable conditions

An abstract version of the comprehensive aquatic simulation model (CASM) is found to exhibit bistability under intermediate loading of nutrient input, supporting the alternative-stable-states theory and field observations for shallow lakes. Our simulations of biomanipulations under the bistable conditions reveal that a reduction in the abundance of zooplanktivorous fish cannot switch the system from a turbid to a clear state. Rather, a direct reduction of phytoplankton and detritus was found to be most effective to make this switch in the present model. These results imply that multiple manipulations may be effective for practical restorations of lakes. We discuss the present results of biomanipulations in terms of ecological resilience in multivariable systems or natural systems.

Simplification of structured population dynamics in complex ecological communities

Goldstone's idea of slow dynamics resulting from spontaneously broken symmetries is applied to Hubbell's neutral hypothesis of community dynamics, to efficiently simplify stage-structured multi-species models-introducing the quasi-neutral approximation (QNA). Rather than assuming population-dynamical neutrality in the QNA, deviations from ideal neutrality, thought to be small, drive dynamics. The QNA is systematically derived to first and second order in a two-scale singular perturbation expansion. The total reproductive value of species, as computed from the effective life-history parameters resulting from the non-linear interactions with the surrounding community, emerges as the new dynamic variables in this aggregated description. Using a simple stage-structured community-assembly model, the QNA is demonstrated to accurately reproduce population dynamics in large, complex communities. Further, the utility of the QNA in building intuition for management problems is illustrated by estimating the responses of a fish stock to harvesting and variations in fecundity.

Protracted rainfall decreases temperature within leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) clutches in Grenada, West Indies: Ecological implications for a species displaying temperature dependent sex determination

Protracted or intense rainfall may affect the reproductive success of reptilian species on a number of levels ranging from the availability of prey, the integrity of the nesting site and the subsequent survivability of offspring. For sea turtles (a species displaying temperature sex determination) nesting throughout the tropics and subtropics, rainfall has previously been shown to influence the development environment of clutches; in its extreme resulting in high levels of egg or hatchling mortality. Yet when compared to other abiotic variables affecting clutch success, rainfall has received relatively little attention. We therefore examined how fluctuations in local rainfall at a tropical nesting site for leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) affected the nest environment. Temperature data loggers placed within clutches (n = 8) revealed that protracted rainfall had a marked cooling effect on nests, so that seasonally improbable male-producing temperatures (

Antimicrobial prescribing in Nursing Homes in Northern Ireland: Results of Two Point-Prevalence Surveys

BACKGROUND: In 2005, the European Commission recommended that all member states should establish or strengthen surveillance systems for monitoring the use of antimicrobial agents. There is no evidence in the literature of any surveillance studies having been specifically conducted in nursing homes (NHs) in Northern Ireland (NI).

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of antimicrobial prescribing and its relationship with certain factors (e.g. indwelling urinary catheterization, urinary incontinence, disorientation, etc.) in NH residents in NI.

METHODS: This project was carried out in NI as part of a wider European study under the protocols of the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption group. Two point-prevalence surveys (PPSs) were conducted in 30 NHs in April and November 2009. Data were obtained from nursing notes, medication administration records and staff in relation to antimicrobial prescribing, facility and resident characteristics and were analysed descriptively.

RESULTS: The point prevalence of antimicrobial prescribing was 13.2% in April 2009 and 10.7% in November 2009, with a 10-fold difference existing between the NHs with the highest and lowest antimicrobial prescribing prevalence during both PPSs. The same NH had the highest rate of antimicrobial prescribing during both April (30.6%) and November (26.0%). The group of antimicrobials most commonly prescribed was the penicillins (April 28.6%, November 27.5%) whilst the most prevalent individual antimicrobial prescribed was trimethoprim (April 21.3%, November 24.3%). The majority of antimicrobials were prescribed for the purpose of preventing urinary tract infections (UTIs) in both April (37.8%) and in November (46.7%), with 5% of all participating residents being prescribed an antimicrobial for this reason. Some (20%) antimicrobials were prescribed at inappropriate doses, particularly those which were used for the purpose of preventing UTIs. Indwelling urinary catheterization and wounds were significant risk factors for antimicrobial use in April [odds ratio {OR} (95% CI) 2.0 (1.1, 3.5) and 1.8 (1.1, 3.0), respectively] but not in November 2009 [OR (95% CI) 1.6 (0.8, 3.2) and 1.2 (0.7, 2.2), respectively]. Other resident factors, e.g. disorientation, immobility and incontinence, were not associated with antimicrobial use. Furthermore, none of the NH characteristics investigated (e.g. number of beds, hospitalization episodes, number of general practitioners, etc.) were found to be associated with antimicrobial use in either April or November 2009.

CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified a high overall rate of antimicrobial use in NHs in NI, with variability evident both within and between homes. More research is needed to understand which factors influence antimicrobial use and to determine the appropriateness of antimicrobial prescribing in this population in general and more specifically in the management of recurrent UTIs.

Reflecting on outcomes for looked-after children: an ecological perspective

Despite huge investment over the past 10 years, improving outcomes for looked-after children remains elusive. A challenge for practitioners, researchers and policy-makers has been the absence of a shared conceptual framework for considering and responding to the needs of looked-after children. A second challenge relates to the measurement of outcomes. This article considers the measurement of outcomes and the multiple factors that contribute to outcomes for looked-after children. These include factors proximate to: the young person; birth family; placement; care system; children’s services; intra-agency dynamics; inter-agency dynamics; commissioning agents; and societal level. It then proposes an organising framework which provides the basis for reflecting on how multiple variables can interact to effect outcomes for looked-after children. The ecological perspective outlined in this article aims to facilitate reflection on the complex interplay between looked-after children and their environments and thereby to act as an aid to targeting interventions more effectively and efficiently.

Political Violence and Child Adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing Pathways in a Social-Ecological Model Including Single- and Two-Parent Families

Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, we tested a social ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes. Participants were 700 mother child (M = 12.1 years, SD = 1.8) dyads from 18 working-class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children's reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems, and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single- and two-parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children's functioning are discussed.

Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland

Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures or community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world.

Surveillance of cerebral palsy in Europe: a collaboration of cerebral palsy surveys and registers

Although cerebral palsy (CP) is the most common cause of motor deficiency in young children, it occurs in only 2 to 3 per 1000 live births. In order to monitor prevalence rates, especially within subgroups (birthweight, clinical type), it is necessary to study large populations. A network of CP surveys and registers was formed in 14 centres in eight countries across Europe. Differences in prevalence rates of CP in the centres prior to any work on harmonization of data are reported. The subsequent process to standardize the definition of CP, inclusion/exclusion criteria, classification, and description of children with CP is outlined. The consensus that was reached on these issues will make it possible to monitor trends in CP rate, to provide a framework for collaborative research, and a basis for services planning among European countries.

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Approaches to the Implementation of the Water Framework Directive: Targeting Mitigation Measures at Critical Source Areas of Diffuse Phosphorus in Irish Catchments

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) has initiated a shift towards a targeted approach to implementation through its focus on river basin districts as management units and the natural ecological characteristics of waterbodies. Due to its role in eutrophication, phosphorus (P) has received considerable attention, resulting in a significant body of research, which now forms the evidence base for the programme of measures (POMs) adopted in WFD River Basin Management Plans (RBMP). Targeting POMs at critical sources areas (CSAs) of P could significantly improve environmental efficiency and cost effectiveness of proposed mitigation strategies. This paper summarises the progress made towards targeting mitigation measures at CSAs in Irish catchments. A review of current research highlights that knowledge related to P export at field scale is relatively comprehensive however; the availability of site-specific data and tools limits widespread identification of CSA at this scale. Increasing complexity of hydrological processes at larger scales limits accurate identification of CSA at catchment scale. Implementation of a tiered approach, using catchment scale tools in conjunction with field-by-field surveys could decrease uncertainty and provide a more practical and cost effective method of delineating CSA in a range of catchments. Despite scientific and practical uncertainties, development of a tiered CSA-based approach to assist in the development of supplementary measures would provide a means of developing catchment-specific and cost-effective programmes of measures for diffuse P. The paper presents a conceptual framework for such an approach, which would have particular relevance for the development of supplementary measures in High Status Waterbodies (HSW). The cost and resources necessary for implementation are justified based on HSWs’ value as undisturbed reference condition ecosystems.