IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves, 0 - 50,000 years cal BP

The IntCal04 and Marine04 radiocarbon calibration curves have been updated from 12 cal kBP (cal kBP is here defined as thousands of calibrated years before AD 1950), and extended to 50 cal kBP, utilizing newly available data sets that meet the IntCal Working Group criteria for pristine corals and other carbonates and for quantification of uncertainty in both the ¹⁴C and calendar timescales as established in 2002. No change was made to the curves from 0-12 cal kBP. The curves were constructed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation of the random walk model used for IntCal04 and Marine04. The new curves were ratified at the 20th International Radiocarbon Conference in June 2009 and are available in the Supplemental Material at www.radiocarbon.org.

A transit timing analysis of seven RISE light curves of the exoplanet system HAT-P-3

We present seven light curves of the exoplanet system HAT-P-3, taken as part of a transit timing programme using the rapid imager to search for exoplanets instrument on the Liverpool Telescope. The light curves are analysed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to update the parameters of the system. The inclination is found to be i = 86.75+0.22-0.21°, the planet-star radius ratio to be Rp/R* = 0.1098+0.0010-0.0012 and the stellar radius to be R* = 0.834+0.018-0.026Rsolar, consistent with previous results but with a significant improvement in the precision. Central transit times and uncertainties for each light curve are also determined, and a residual permutation algorithm is used as an independent check on the errors. The transit times are found to be consistent with a linear ephemeris, and a new ephemeris is calculated as Tc(0) = 2454856.70118 +/- 0.00018 HJD and P = 2.899738 +/- 0.000007 d. Model timing residuals are fitted to the measured timing residuals to place upper mass limits for a hypothetical perturbing planet as a function of the period ratio. These show that we have probed for planets with masses as low as 0.33 and 1.81 M? in the interior and exterior 2:1 resonances, respectively, assuming the planets are initially in circular orbits.

Tight constraints on the existence of additional planets around HD 189733†

We report a transit timing study of the transiting exoplanetary system HD 189733. In total, we observed 10 transits in 2006 and 2008 with the 2.6-m Nordic Optical Telescope, and two transits in 2007 with the 4.2-m William Herschel Telescope. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to derive the system parameters and their uncertainties, and our results are in a good agreement with previously published values. We performed two independent analyses of transit timing residuals to place upper mass limits on putative perturbing planets. The results show no evidence for the presence of planets down to 1 Earth mass near the 1:2 and 2:1 resonance orbits, and planets down to 2.2 Earth masses near the 3:5 and 5:3 resonance orbits with HD 189733b. These are the strongest limits to date on the presence of other planets in this system. Based on observations made with the Nordic Optical Telescope, operated on the island of La Palma jointly by Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias. Based on observations made with the William Herschel Telescope operated on the island of La Palma by the Isaac Newton Group in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias. ‡

Ground-based detection of thermal emission from the exoplanet WASP-19b

We present an occultation of the newly discovered hot Jupiter system WASP-19, observed with the High Acuity Wide-field K-band Imager instrument on the VLT, in order to measure thermal emission from the planet's dayside at ~2µm. The light curve was analysed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to find the eclipse depth and the central transit time. The transit depth was found to be 0.366 +/- 0.072 per cent, corresponding to a brightness temperature of 2540 +/- 180 K. This is significantly higher than the calculated (zero-albedo) equilibrium temperature and indicates that the planet shows poor redistribution of heat to the night side, consistent with models of highly irradiated planets. Further observations are needed to confirm the existence of a temperature inversion and possibly molecular emission lines. The central eclipse time was found to be consistent with a circular orbit.

An ingress and a complete transit of HD80606 b

We have used four telescopes at different longitudes to obtain near-continuous light-curve coverage of the star HD80606 as it was transited by its ~4-MJup planet. The observations were performed during the predicted transit windows around 2008 October 25 and 2009 February 14. Our data set is unique in that it simultaneously constrains the duration of the transit and the planet's period. Our Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of the light curves, combined with constraints from radial-velocity data, yields system parameters consistent with previously reported values. We find a planet-to-star radius ratio marginally smaller than previously reported, corresponding to a planet radius of Rp = 0.921 +/- 0.036RJup.

WASP-21b: a hot-Saturn exoplanet transiting a thick disc star

We report the discovery of WASP-21b, a new transiting exoplanet discovered by the Wide Angle Search for Planets (WASP) Consortium and established and characterized with the FIES, SOPHIE, CORALIE and HARPS fiber-fed echelle spectrographs. A 4.3-d period, 1.1% transit depth and 3.4-h duration are derived for WASP-21b using SuperWASP-North and high precision photometric observations at the Liverpool Telescope. Simultaneous fitting to the photometric and radial velocity data with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure leads to a planet in the mass regime of Saturn. With a radius of 1.07 RJup and mass of 0.30 MJup, WASP-21b has a density close to 0.24 ?Jup corresponding to the distribution peak at low density of transiting gaseous giant planets. With a host star metallicity [Fe/H] of -0.46, WASP-21b strengthens the correlation between planetary density and host star metallicity for the five known Saturn-like transiting planets. Furthermore there are clear indications that WASP-21b is the first transiting planet belonging to the thick disc.

Spin-orbit angle measurements for six southern transiting planets. New insights into the dynamical origins of hot Jupiters

Context. Several competing scenarios for planetary-system formation and evolution seek to explain how hot Jupiters came to be so close to their parent stars. Most planetary parameters evolve with time, making it hard to distinguish between models. The obliquity of an orbit with respect to the stellar rotation axis is thought to be more stable than other parameters such as eccentricity. Most planets, to date, appear aligned with the stellar rotation axis; the few misaligned planets so far detected are massive (> 2 MJ). Aims: Our goal is to measure the degree of alignment between planetary orbits and stellar spin axes, to search for potential correlations with eccentricity or other planetary parameters and to measure long term radial velocity variability indicating the presence of other bodies in the system. Methods: For transiting planets, the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect allows the measurement of the sky-projected angle ß between the stellar rotation axis and a planet's orbital axis. Using the HARPS spectrograph, we observed the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for six transiting hot Jupiters found by the WASP consortium. We combine these with long term radial velocity measurements obtained with CORALIE. We used a combined analysis of photometry and radial velocities, fitting model parameters with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. After obtaining ß we attempt to statistically determine the distribution of the real spin-orbit angle ?. Results: We found that three of our targets have ß above 90°: WASP-2b: ß = 153°+11-15, WASP-15b: ß = 139.6°+5.2-4.3 and WASP-17b: ß = 148.5°+5.1-4.2; the other three (WASP-4b, WASP-5b and WASP-18b) have angles compatible with 0°. We find no dependence between the misaligned angle and planet mass nor with any other planetary parameter. All six orbits are close to circular, with only one firm detection of eccentricity e = 0.00848+0.00085-0.00095 in WASP-18b. No long-term radial acceleration was detected for any of the targets. Combining all previous 20 measurements of ß and our six and transforming them into a distribution of ? we find that between about 45 and 85% of hot Jupiters have ? > 30°. Conclusions: Most hot Jupiters are misaligned, with a large variety of spin-orbit angles. We find observations and predictions using the Kozai mechanism match well. If these observational facts are confirmed in the future, we may then conclude that most hot Jupiters are formed from a dynamical and tidal origin without the necessity to use type I or II migration. At present, standard disc migration cannot explain the observations without invoking at least another additional process.

Estimating the masses of extra-solar planets

All extra-solar planet masses that have been derived spectroscopically are lower limits since the inclination of the orbit to our line-of-sight is unknown except for transiting systems. In theory, however, it is possible to determine the inclination angle, i, between the rotation axis of a star and an observer's line-of-sight from measurements of the projected equatorial velocity (v sin i), the stellar rotation period (P(rot)) and the stellar radius (R(*)). For stars which host planetary systems this allows the removal of the sin i dependency of extra-solar planet masses derived from spectroscopic observations under the assumption that the planetary orbits lie perpendicular to the stellar rotation axis.
We have carried out an extensive literature search and present a catalogue of v sin i, P(rot) and R(*) estimates for stars hosting extra-solar planets. In addition, we have used Hipparcos parallaxes and the Barnes-Evans relationship to further supplement the R(*) estimates obtained from the literature. Using this catalogue, we have obtained sin i estimates using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo analysis. This technique allows proper 1 Sigma two-tailed confidence limits to be placed on the derived sin i's along with the transit probability for each planet to be determined.
While we find that a small proportion of systems yield sin i's significantly greater than 1, most likely due to poor P(rot) estimations, the large majority are acceptable. We are further encouraged by the cases where we have data on transiting systems, as the technique indicates inclinations of similar to 90 degrees and high transit probabilities. In total, we are able to estimate the true masses of 133 extra-solar planets. Of these 133 extra-solar planets, only six have revised masses that place them above the 13M(J) deuterium burning limit; four of those six extra-solar planet candidates were already suspected to lie above the deuterium burning limit before correcting their masses for the sin i dependency. Our work reveals a population of high-mass extra-solar planets with low eccentricities, and we speculate that these extra-solar planets may represent the signature of different planetary formation mechanisms at work. Finally, we discuss future observations that should improve the robustness of this technique.

A lower mass for the exoplanet WASP-21b

We present high-precision transit observations of the exoplanet WASP-21b, obtained with the Rapid Imager to Search for Exoplanets instrument mounted on the 2.0-m Liverpool Telescope. A transit model is fitted, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo routine, to derive accurate system parameters. The two new high-precision transits allow us to estimate the stellar density directly from the light curve. Our analysis suggests that WASP-21 is evolving off the main sequence which led to a previous overestimation of the stellar density. Using isochrone interpolation, we find a stellar mass of 0.86 ± 0.04 Msun, which is significantly lower than previously reported (1.01 ± 0.03 Msun). Consequently, we find a lower planetary mass of 0.27 ± 0.01 MJup. A lower inclination (87?4 ± 0?3) is also found for the system than previously reported, resulting in a slightly larger stellar (R*= 1.10 ± 0.03 Rsun) and planetary radius (Rp= 1.14 ± 0.04 RJup). The planet radius suggests a hydrogen/helium composition with no core which strengthens the correlation between planetary density and host star metallicity. A new ephemeris is determined for the system, i.e. T0= 245 5084.519 74 ± 0.000 20 (HJD) and P= 4.322 5060 ± 0.000 0031 d. We found no transit timing variations in WASP-21b.

High-precision transit observations of the exoplanet WASP-13b with the RISE instrument

WASP-13b is a sub-Jupiter mass exoplanet orbiting a G1V type star with a period of 4.35 d.The current uncertainty in its impact parameter (0 < b < 0.46) results in poorly definedstellar and planetary radii. To better constrain the impact parameter, we have obtained highprecisiontransit observations with the rapid imager to search for exoplanets (RISE) instrumentmounted on 2.0-m Liverpool Telescope. We present four new transits which are fitted witha Markov chain Monte Carlo routine to derive accurate system parameters. We found anorbital inclination of 85. ◦ 2 ± 0. ◦ 3 resulting in stellar and planetary radii of 1.56 ± 0.04 Rand 1.39 ± 0.05RJup, respectively. This suggests that the host star has evolved off the mainsequence and is in the hydrogen-shell-burning phase.We also discuss how the limb darkeningaffects the derived system parameters.With a density of 0.17ρJ,WASP-13b joins the group oflow-density planets whose radii are too large to be explained by standard irradiation models.We derive a new ephemeris for the system, T0 = 245 5575.5136 ± 0.0016 (HJD) and P =4.353 011 ± 0.000 013 d. The planet equilibrium temperature (Tequ = 1500 K) and the brighthost star (V = 10.4mag) make it a good candidate for follow-up atmospheric studies.

Mean field approach for tracking similar objects

In this paper, we consider the problem of tracking similar objects. We show how a mean field approach can be used to deal with interacting targets and we compare it with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two mean field implementations are presented. The first one is more general and uses particle filtering. We discuss some simplifications of the base algorithm that reduce the computation time. The second one is based on suitable Gaussian approximations of probability densities that lead to a set of self-consistent equations for the means and covariances. These equations give the Kalman solution if there is no interaction. Experiments have been performed on two kinds of sequences. The first kind is composed of a single long sequence of twenty roaming ants and was previously analysed using MCMC. In this case, our mean field algorithms obtain substantially better results. The second kind corresponds to selected sequences of a football match in which the interaction avoids tracker coalescence in situations where independent trackers fail.

Evaluation of genetic substructure in the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families

The presence of genetic substructure has the potential to diminish the chances of detecting a linkage signal. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure developed by Pritchard and colleagues and implemented in the program STRUCTURE, we evaluated the evidence for genetic substructure using genotypes from 37 microsatellite markers in affected individuals selected at random from 263 multiplex families in the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families. We found no evidence for the presence of genetic substructure in this sample.

Multiple Biomarkers for the prediction of ischemic stroke: the PRIME study

Objective: To simultaneously evaluate 14 biomarkers from distinct biological pathways for risk prediction of ischemic stroke, including biomarkers of hemostasis, inflammation, and endothelial activation as well as chemokines and adipocytokines.
Methods and Results: The Prospective Epidemiological Study on Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) is a cohort of 9771 healthy men 50 to 59 years of age who were followed up over 10 years. In a nested case–control study, 95 ischemic stroke cases were matched with 190 controls. After multivariable adjustment for traditional risk factors, fibrinogen (odds ratio [OR], 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–2.28), E-selectin (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.06–2.93), interferon-γ-inducible-protein-10 (OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.06–2.78), resistin (OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.30–6.27), and total adiponectin (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.04–3.19) were significantly associated with ischemic stroke. Adding E-selectin and resistin to a traditional risk factor model significantly increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve from 0.679 (95% CI, 0.612–0.745) to 0.785 and 0.788, respectively, and yielded a categorical net reclassification improvement of 29.9% (P=0.001) and 28.4% (P=0.002), respectively. Their simultaneous inclusion in the traditional risk factor model increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve to 0.824 (95% CI, 0.770–0.877) and resulted in an net reclassification improvement of 41.4% (P<0.001). Results were confirmed when using continuous net reclassification improvement.
Conclusion: Among multiple biomarkers from distinct biological pathways, E-selectin and resistin provided incremental and additive value to traditional risk factors in predicting ischemic stroke.

Characterization of the Kepler-101 planetary system with HARPS-N. A hot super-Neptune with an Earth-sized low-mass companion

We characterize the planetary system Kepler-101 by performing a combined differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo analysisof Kepler data and forty radial velocities obtained with the HARPS-N spectrograph. This system was previously validated and iscomposed of a hot super-Neptune, Kepler-101b, and an Earth-sized planet, Kepler-101c. These two planets orbit the slightly evolvedand metal-rich G-type star in 3.49 and 6.03 days, respectively. With mass Mp = 51.1+5.1−4.7 M⊕, radius Rp = 5.77+0.85−0.79 R⊕, and density ρp = 1.45+0.83 −0.48 g cm−3, Kepler-101b is the first fully characterized super-Neptune, and its density suggests that heavy elements makeup a significant fraction of its interior; more than 60% of its total mass. Kepler-101c has a radius of 1.25+0.19−0.17 R⊕, which implies theabsence of any H/He envelope, but its mass could not be determined because of the relative faintness of the parent star for highly precise radial-velocity measurements (Kp = 13.8) and the limited number of radial velocities. The 1σ upper limit, Mp < 3.8 M⊕, excludes a pure iron composition with a probability of 68.3%. The architecture of the planetary system Kepler-101 − containing aclose-in giant planet and an outer Earth-sized planet with a period ratio slightly larger than the 3:2 resonance − is certainly of interest for scenarios of planet formation and evolution. This system does not follow the previously reported trend that the larger planet has the longer period in the majority of Kepler systems of planet pairs with at least one Neptune-sized or larger planet.

Solar Flare Impulsive Phase Emission Observed with SDO/EVE

Differential emission measures (DEMs) during the impulsive phase of solar flares were constructed using observations from the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) and the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. Emission lines from ions formed over the temperature range log Te = 5.8-7.2 allow the evolution of the DEM to be studied over a wide temperature range at 10 s cadence. The technique was applied to several M- and X-class flares, where impulsive phase EUV emission is observable in the disk-integrated EVE spectra from emission lines formed up to 3-4 MK and we use spatially unresolved EVE observations to infer the thermal structure of the emitting region. For the nine events studied, the DEMs exhibited a two-component distribution during the impulsive phase, a low-temperature component with peak temperature of 1-2 MK, and a broad high-temperature component from 7 to 30 MK. A bimodal high-temperature component is also found for several events, with peaks at 8 and 25 MK during the impulsive phase. The origin of the emission was verified using Atmospheric Imaging Assembly images to be the flare ribbons and footpoints, indicating that the constructed DEMs represent the spatially average thermal structure of the chromospheric flare emission during the impulsive phase.