Reducing Parametric Uncertainty in Limit Cycle Oscillations

The assimilation of discrete higher fidelity data points with model predictions can be used to achieve a reduction in the uncertainty of the model input parameters which generate accurate predictions. The problem investigated here involves the prediction of limit-cycle oscillations using a High-Dimensional Harmonic Balance method (HDHB). The efficiency of the HDHB method is exploited to enable calibration of structural input parameters using a Bayesian inference technique. Markov-chain Monte Carlo is employed to sample the posterior distributions. Parameter estimation is carried out on both a pitch/plunge aerofoil and Goland wing configuration. In both cases significant refinement was achieved in the distribution of possible structural parameters allowing better predictions of their
true deterministic values.

Local Conventions in Game Play in an Evolving Dual Social Network Framework

People usually perform economic interactions within the social setting of a small group, while they obtain relevant information from a broader source. We capture this feature with a dynamic interaction model based on two separate social networks. Individuals play a coordination game in an interaction network, while updating their strategies using information from a separate influence network through which information is disseminated. In each time period, the interaction and influence networks co-evolve, and the individuals’ strategies are updated through a modified naive learning process. We show that both network structures and players’ strategies always reach a steady state, in which players form fully connected groups and converge to local conventions. We also analyze the influence exerted by a minority group of strongly opinionated players on these outcomes.

Role of early visual cortex in trans-saccadic memory of object features

Early visual cortex (EVC) participates in visual feature memory and the updating of remembered locations across saccades, but its role in the trans-saccadic integration of object features is unknown. We hypothesized that if EVC is involved in updating object features relative to gaze, feature memory should be disrupted when saccades remap an object representation into a simultaneously perturbed EVC site. To test this, we applied transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) over functional magnetic resonance imaging-localized EVC clusters corresponding to the bottom left/right visual quadrants (VQs). During experiments, these VQs were probed psychophysically by briefly presenting a central object (Gabor patch) while subjects fixated gaze to the right or left (and above). After a short memory interval, participants were required to detect the relative change in orientation of a re-presented test object at the same spatial location. Participants either sustained fixation during the memory interval (fixation task) or made a horizontal saccade that either maintained or reversed the VQ of the object (saccade task). Three TMS pulses (coinciding with the pre-, peri-, and postsaccade intervals) were applied to the left or right EVC. This had no effect when (a) fixation was maintained, (b) saccades kept the object in the same VQ, or (c) the EVC quadrant corresponding to the first object was stimulated. However, as predicted, TMS reduced performance when saccades (especially larger saccades) crossed the remembered object location and brought it into the VQ corresponding to the TMS site. This suppression effect was statistically significant for leftward saccades and followed a weaker trend for rightward saccades. These causal results are consistent with the idea that EVC is involved in the gaze-centered updating of object features for trans-saccadic memory and perception.

Homogenization and analysis of an expanded long-term monthly rainfall network for the Island of Ireland (1850–2010)

Long-term precipitation series are critical for understanding emerging changes to the hydrological cycle. To this end we construct a homogenized Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network comprising 25 stations and a composite series covering the period 1850–2010, providing the second-longest regional precipitation archive in the British-Irish Isles. We expand the existing catalogue of long-term precipitation records for the island by recovering archived data for an additional eight stations. Following bridging and updating of stations HOMogenisation softwarE in R (HOMER) homogenization software is used to detect breaks using pairwise and joint detection. A total of 25 breakpoints are detected across 14 stations, and the majority (20) are corroborated by metadata. Assessment of variability and change in homogenized and extended precipitation records reveal positive (winter) and negative (summer) trends. Trends in records covering the typical period of digitization (1941 onwards) are not always representative of longer records. Furthermore, trends in post-homogenization series change magnitude and even direction at some stations. While cautionary flags are raised for some series, confidence in the derived network is high given attention paid to metadata, coherence of behaviour across the network and consistency of findings with other long-term climatic series such as England and Wales precipitation. As far as we are aware, this work represents the first application of HOMER to a long-term precipitation network and bodes well for use in other regions. It is expected that the homogenized IIP network will find wider utility in benchmarking and supporting climate services across the Island of Ireland, a sentinel location in the North Atlantic.

Approximating Credal Network Inferences by Linear Programming

An algorithm for approximate credal network updating is presented. The problem in its general formulation is a multilinear optimization task, which can be linearized by an appropriate rule for fixing all the local models apart from those of a single variable. This simple idea can be iterated and quickly leads to very accurate inferences. The approach can also be specialized to classification with credal networks based on the maximality criterion. A complexity analysis for both the problem and the algorithm is reported together with numerical experiments, which confirm the good performance of the method. While the inner approximation produced by the algorithm gives rise to a classifier which might return a subset of the optimal class set, preliminary empirical results suggest that the accuracy of the optimal class set is seldom affected by the approximate probabilities

Visual morbidity due to inaccurate spectacles among school children in rural China: the See Well to Learn Well Project, report 1.

PURPOSE: Inadequately corrected refractive error is the leading cause of visual disability among children in China; inaccurate spectacles are a potential cause. The prevalence and visual impact of spectacle inaccuracy were studied among rural, secondary-school children, to determine the optimal timing for updating of refraction. METHODS: A random sample of children from years 1 and 2 in all junior and senior high schools in Fuyang Township, Guangdong Province, underwent ocular examination. All children who reported wearing glasses received cycloplegic refraction, vision assessment, and measurement of current spectacles. RESULTS: Among 3226 examined children, 733 (22.7%) reported owning spectacles. Refractive error and spectacle power were assessed for 588 (80.2%) children. They had a mean age of 15.0 +/- 1.6 years; 70.2% were girls, 83.3% had more than -1.5 D of myopia, and 17.9% had presenting vision < or = 6/12 in the better eye. The glasses of 48.8% of children were inaccurate by > or = 1 D; inaccuracy was > or = 2 D in 17.7%. Children with inaccurate glasses (> or = 1 D) had presenting vision in the better eye significantly (P < 0.001) worse than that of children with accurate glasses, and 30.3% had presenting acuity < or = 6/12. In multivariate models, younger age (P = 0.004), more myopic refractive error (P < 0.001), and having glasses > or = 1 year old (P = 0.04) were associated with inaccurate spectacles. DISCUSSION: Inaccurate spectacles are common and are associated with significant visual impairment among children in rural China. Reducing outdated glasses could lessen the visual burden, although refractive services may have to be offered on an annual basis for optimal benefit.

Infrared and Raman screening of seized novel psychoactive substances: A large scale study of >200 samples

The potential of IR absorption and Raman spectroscopy for rapid identification of novel psychoactive substances (NPS) has been tested using a set of 221 unsorted seized samples suspected of containing NPS. Both IR and Raman spectra showed large variation between the different sub-classifications of NPS and smaller, but still distinguishable, differences between closely related compounds within the same class. In initial tests, screening the samples using spectral searching against a limited reference library allowed only 41% of the samples to be fully identified. The limiting factor in the identification was the large number of active compounds in the seized samples for which no reference vibrational data were available in the libraries rather than poor spectral quality. Therefore, when 33 of these compounds were independently identified by NMR and mass spectrometry and their spectra used to extend the libraries, the percentage of samples identified by IR and Raman screening alone increased to 76%, with only 7% of samples having no identifiable constituents. This study, which is the largest of its type ever carried out, therefore demonstrates that this approach of detecting non-matching samples and then identifying them using standard analytical methods has considerable potential in NPS screening since it allows rapid identification of the constituents of the majority of street quality samples. Only one complete feedback cycle was carried out in this study but there is clearly the potential to carry out continuous identification/updating when this system is used in operational settings.

Address inaccuracy in health registration data: determinants and impacts

Access to demographic data that are complete, accurate and up-to-date is fundamental to many aspects of public health, government and academic work and for accurate interpretation of other databases. Health registration data are the prime source of demographic information for health and social care systems; for example, as an indicator of need, as a source of denominators to convert number of events into rates, or in the case of the residential address information as the basis for generating the call-recall invitation letters that are used for most screening programs (e.g. breast, colo-rectal and AAA screening). However, list inflation (ghosts, duplicates or emigrants) and a degree of address inaccuracy are recognised caveats with the health registration data and a recent NILS-related study on breast screening suggests that improved address accuracy might be a fast and efficient means of increasing screening uptake rates in cities and amongst deprived populations. In NI these data are collated by the BSO who uniquely in the UK also have access to data relating to prescribing, dental registrations and use of A&E services. These can be used to supplement the standard demographic and address information by (i) indicating patients who are alive and resident in NI and (ii) providing an independent source of probably improved address information. This study will use the NI Unique Property Reference Number (UPRN), rather than the addresses per se which are difficult to work with, to compare the addresses registered in the BSO with those addresses in the enumerated 2011 census. Assuming that the census is a more accurate source of address information for individuals, a comparison of the health registration addresses with those recorded at the census, the aim of the proposed study will be to (i) characterise the amount and distributions of these differences, (ii) to see what proportion of those who do not attend for screening did not actually receive an invitation letter because the addresses were incorrect, (iii) to determine how much of the social gradient (and urban/rural differences) in screening uptake are due to address inaccuracies, (iv) a comparison of timing of address changes at the BSO will provide information on the delays in updating of addresses.