Belief change with noisy sensing in the situation calculus

Situation calculus has been applied widely in arti?cial intelligence to model and reason about actions and changes in dynamic systems. Since actions carried out by agents will cause constant changes of the agents’ beliefs, how to manage
these changes is a very important issue. Shapiro et al. [22] is one of the studies that considered this issue. However, in this framework, the problem of noisy sensing, which often presents in real-world applications, is not considered. As a
consequence, noisy sensing actions in this framework will lead to an agent facing inconsistent situation and subsequently the agent cannot proceed further. In this paper, we investigate how noisy sensing actions can be handled in iterated
belief change within the situation calculus formalism. We extend the framework proposed in [22] with the capability of managing noisy sensings. We demonstrate that an agent can still detect the actual situation when the ratio of noisy sensing actions vs. accurate sensing actions is limited. We prove that our framework subsumes the iterated belief change strategy in [22] when all sensing actions are accurate. Furthermore, we prove that our framework can adequately handle belief introspection, mistaken beliefs, belief revision and belief update even with noisy sensing, as done in [22] with accurate sensing actions only.

Deep Salience: Visual Salience Modeling via Deep Belief Propagation

Visual salience is an intriguing phenomenon observed in biological neural systems. Numerous attempts have been made to model visual salience mathematically using various feature contrasts, either locally or globally. However, these algorithmic models tend to ignore the problem’s biological solutions, in which visual salience appears to arise during the propagation of visual stimuli along the visual cortex. In this paper, inspired by the conjecture that salience arises from deep propagation along the visual cortex, we present a Deep Salience model where a multi-layer model based on successive Markov random fields (sMRF) is proposed to analyze the input image successively through its deep belief propagation. As a result, the foreground object can be automatically separated from the background in a fully unsupervised way. Experimental evaluation on the benchmark dataset validated that our Deep Salience model can consistently outperform eleven state-of-the-art salience models, yielding the higher rates in the precision-recall tests and attaining the best F-measure and mean-square error in the experiments.

Is Northern Ireland abnormal? An extension of the sociological debate on religion in modern Britain

This article places Northern Ireland within the unfolding sociological debate on religion in modern Britain. It measures secularization along Casanova’s three dimensions (1994): religious differentiation, decline and privatization. It finds that Northern Ireland has, in common with Britain, high levels of religious differentiation, grey areas of religious belief and little convinced secularism. However, Northern Ireland differs in that it has higher levels of religious affiliation and practice, and religion plays more roles in civil society than it does in other parts of Britain. The article explores the role of conflict in forming these religious trends, asking if they represent a persistence of the sacred, or simply mask deeper ethnic divisions. It concludes that the social dimensions of religion are just as important as the supernatural, and that they often inform each other. Finally, it suggests that the dynamics of religious change are comparable across regions and, as such, Northern Ireland might be a useful case study for British policy makers, particularly as it becomes increasingly multicultural and religiously plural.

The State, Compartmentalization and the Turn to Local Community: A Critique of the Political Thought of Alasdair MacIntyre

Alasdair MacIntyre condemns modern politics, specifically liberalism and the institutions of the liberal state, as irredeemably fallen. His core argument is that the liberal state encourages a disempowering ‘compartmentalization’ of people’s everyday roles and activities that undermines the intersubjective conditions of human flourishing. MacIntyre’s alternative is an Aristotelian politics centred on the notion of “practice.” Defined by justice and solidarity, this politics can only be realized, he claims, within local communities which oppose and resist the dictates of the administrative state and capitalist market. Here it is argued that MacIntyre’s notion of “practice” represents a compelling ethical-political ideal. However, the belief that this ideal is best realized within local communities is rejected. In privileging local community, MacIntyre relies on a reductive view of modern states and overlooks the institutional conditions of a just polity. Against this, it is argued that a politics of human flourishing cannot succeed without an emancipatory transformation of large-scale, trans-communal institutions, in particular the state.

Early-type stars observed in the ESO UVES Paranal Observatory Project - I. Interstellar NaIUV, TiII and CaIIKobservations

We present an analysis of interstellar NaI (lambda(air) = 3302.37 and 3302.98 angstrom), TiII (lambda(air) = 3383.76 angstrom) and CaII K (lambda(air) = 3933.66 angstrom) absorption features for 74 sightlines towards O- and B-type stars in the Galactic disc. The data were obtained from the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph Paranal Observatory Project, at a spectral resolution of 3.75 km s(-1) and with mean signal-to-noise ratios per pixel of 260, 300 and 430 for the NaI, TiII and CaII observations, respectively. Interstellar features were detected in all but one of the TiII sightlines and all of the CaII sightlines. The dependence of the column density of these three species with distance, height relative to the Galactic plane, HI column density, reddening and depletion relative to the solar abundance has been investigated. We also examine the accuracy of using the NaI column density as an indicator of that for HI. In general, we find similar strong correlations for both Ti and Ca, and weaker correlations for Na. Our results confirm the general belief that Ti and Ca occur in the same regions of the interstellar medium ( ISM) and also that the TiII/CaII ratio is constant over all parameters. We hence conclude that the absorption properties of Ti and Ca are essentially constant under the general ISM conditions of the Galactic disc.

Computerised Diagnostic Decision Support System for the Classification of Pre-Invasive Cervical Squamous Lesions.

Previous studies have revealed considerable interobserver and intraobserver variation in the histological classification of preinvasive cervical squamous lesions. The aim of the present study was to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the histological interpretation of these lesions. Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network that permitted the storage of diagnostic knowledge and, for a given case, the collection of evidence in a cumulative manner that provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 8 diagnostic histological features (evidence nodes) that were each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. Diagnostic outcomes comprised normal; koilocytosis; and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, CIN II, and CIN M. For each evidence feature, a set of images was recorded that represented the full spectrum of change for that feature. The system was designed to be interactive in that the histopathologist was prompted to enter evidence into the network via a specifically designed graphical user interface (i-Path Diagnostics, Belfast, Northern Ireland). Membership functions were used to derive the relative likelihoods for the alternative feature outcomes, the likelihood vector was entered into the network, and the updated diagnostic belief was computed for the diagnostic outcomes and displayed. A cumulative probability graph was generated throughout the diagnostic process and presented on screen. The network was tested on 50 cervical colposcopic biopsy specimens, comprising 10 cases each of normal, koilocytosis, CIN 1, CIN H, and CIN III. These had been preselected by a consultant gynecological pathologist. Using conventional morphological assessment, the cases were classified on 2 separate occasions by 2 consultant and 2 junior pathologists. The cases were also then classified using the DSS on 2 occasions by the 4 pathologists and by 2 medical students with no experience in cervical histology. Interobserver and intraobserver agreement using morphology and using the DSS was calculated with K statistics. Intraobserver reproducibility using conventional unaided diagnosis was reasonably good (kappa range, 0.688 to 0.861), but interobserver agreement was poor (kappa range, 0.347 to 0.747). Using the DSS improved overall reproducibility between individuals. Using the DSS, however, did not enhance the diagnostic performance of junior pathologists when comparing their DSS-based diagnosis against an experienced consultant. However, the generation of a cumulative probability graph also allowed a comparison of individual performance, how individual features were assessed in the same case, and how this contributed to diagnostic disagreement between individuals. Diagnostic features such as nuclear pleomorphism were shown to be particularly problematic and poorly reproducible. DSSs such as this therefore not only have a role to play in enhancing decision making but also in the study of diagnostic protocol, education, self-assessment, and quality control. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining multiple prioritized knowledge bases by negotiation.

Recently, several belief negotiation models have been introduced to deal with the problem of belief merging. A negotiation model usually consists of two functions: a negotiation function and a weakening function. A negotiation function is defined to choose the weakest sources and these sources will weaken their point of view using a weakening function. However, the currently available belief negotiation models are based on classical logic, which makes them difficult to define weakening functions. In this paper, we define a prioritized belief negotiation model in the framework of possibilistic logic. The priority between formulae provides us with important information to decide which beliefs should be discarded. The problem of merging uncertain information from different sources is then solved by two steps. First, beliefs in the original knowledge bases will be weakened to resolve inconsistencies among them. This step is based on a prioritized belief negotiation model. Second, the knowledge bases obtained by the first step are combined using a conjunctive operator which may have a reinforcement effect in possibilistic logic.

Handling uncertainty in a medical study of dietary intake during pregnancy

This paper is concerned with handling uncertainty as part of the analysis of data from a medical study. The study is investigating connections between the birth weight of babies and the dietary intake of their mothers. Bayesian belief networks were used in the analysis. Their perceived benefits include (i) an ability to represent the evidence emerging from the evolving study, dealing effectively with the inherent uncertainty involved; (ii) providing a way of representing evidence graphically to facilitate analysis and communication with clinicians; (iii) helping in the exploration of the data to reveal undiscovered knowledge; and (iv) providing a means of developing an expert system application.

Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty in engineering projects

In this paper we describe how an evidential-reasoner can be used as a component of risk assessment of engineering projects using a direct way of reasoning. Guan & Bell (1991) introduced this method by using the mass functions to express rule strengths. Mass functions are also used to express data strengths. The data and rule strengths are combined to get a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of our reasoning process. Then we combine the prior mass and the evidence from the different rules; i.e., the second half of the reasoning process. Finally, belief intervals are calculated to help in identifying the risks. We apply our evidential-reasoner on an engineering project and the results demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of this system in this environment.

Risk assessment of E-Commerce projects using evidential reasoning

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risks in E-Commerce (EC) projects. Competitive software businesses have the critical task of assessing the risk in the software system development life cycle. This can be conducted on the basis of conventional probabilities, but limited appropriate information is available and so a complete set of probabilities is not available. In such problems, where the analysis is highly subjective and related to vague, incomplete, uncertain or inexact information, the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence offers a potential advantage. We use a direct way of reasoning in a single step (i.e., extended DS theory) to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risk in EC projects. This consists of five stages 1) establishing knowledge base and setting rule strengths, 2) collecting evidence and data, 3) determining evidence and rule strength to a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of a single step reasoning process, 4) combining prior mass and different rules; i.e., the second half of the single step reasoning process, 5) finally, evaluating the belief interval for the best support decision of EC project. We test the system by using potential risk factors associated with EC development and the results indicate that the system is promising way of assisting an EC project manager in identifying potential risk factors and the corresponding project risks.

Young Women’s Positive and Negative Perceptions of Self in Northern Ireland

This paper represents analysis of one aspect of a larger research project examining the everyday lives and experiences of young women in Northern Ireland. As an introductory exercise within focus groups, 48 young women considered and discussed the good and not so good things about being a young woman in Northern Ireland. Through these accounts many issues emerged, some in direct contrast and contradiction to one another. The area focused upon for the purpose of this paper is the body, particularly with regard to body image (self-expression versus pressure) and becoming a woman (growing up versus menarche). The aim is to illustrate that what young women cite as being potentially positive aspects of growing up or being a young woman often have negative experiences and implications attached to them. In light of the advancements made by young women in Northern Irish society, an opening of opportunities and their awareness of the persistence of gendered messages regarding their bodies, many young women are of the belief that such messages have less impact upon them today and that gender is a barrier that can be overcome. It is illustrated and argued here, however, that dominant cultural messages regarding women’s bodies are more subtle, confusing and perhaps pervasive than they ever have been. As a consequence, this has created more pressure and confusion for young women and tensions exist in terms of young women’s beliefs and their actions. In light of these research findings, this paper considers practice implications for those working with and for young women.

Once a Criminal, Always a Criminal?: ‘Redeemability’ and the Psychology of Punitive Public Attitudes

Several studies have sought to link punitive public attitudes to attribution style and/or lay theories of crime. This research finds that those who believe criminal acts are the result of freely chosen and willful behavior are more likely to be punitive than those who feel crime is the result of external circumstances and constraints. These analyses focus on only one dimension of attributions: locus of control (internal/external). In this analysis, we include a second dimension, thought to be a better predictor of attitudes in social psychological research: stability/instability. In addition to measuring lay theories of crime causation, we also test for “belief in redeemability” (or beliefs about the ability of deviants to change their ways). Our hypothesis is that this other dimension of personal attributions (stability/instability) may be as critical in explaining support for highly punitive criminal justice policies as beliefs about criminal responsibility. We find evidence supportive of this model in an analysis of data from postal survey of residents of six areas in England.

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure – order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.