Progressive deformation of glacial till due to viscoplastic straining and pore pressure variation

The stress regime in a cutting (slope) is complex, with different principle stresses acting in different directions along the potential failure plane. For example, stresses may be primarily in extension near the toe and in compression near the crest of a slope. Cuttings in heavily overconsolidated clays are known to be susceptible to progressive failure which usually starts at the toe of the slope. Softening and the development of rupture surfaces have been observed in the field and are well documented for London Clays. However, this failure mechanism is yet to be established for glacial tills. To better understand the progressive failure mechanism, this paper discusses a series of laboratory tests conducted on reconstituted glacial till samples from Northern Ireland. Initial observations indicate that, a soil with insitu stress states between 80-90% of peak strength may undergo significant viscoplastic straining as a result of the combination of pore-pressure cycling and elevated stress level.

Short comment: To Nail a Jellyfish? Finding a progressive agenda for EU anti-discrimination law

The title of this short (about 4500 words) intervention translates to "To Nail a Jellyfish? Finding a progressive agenda for EU anti-discrimination law". I engage with those criticising EU anti-discrimination law as yet another emanation of the EU's "neo-liberal" nature which fails to establish a viable social policy regime. I criticise this in two directions. First, I take issue with the theory that anti-discrimination law and policy has to be part of social policy. Actually, the field has a mission which differs from social policy, in that it addresses disadvantage resulting from othering, combating stereotypes as well as promoting accomodation of difference. Second, I show how the critique of judicialisation of policy is not unique to anti-discrimination law and policy. The so called turn to rights based employment law has been criticised under this mantra by those who fear that collective labour law mechanisms will become less prevalent. Further, those who have engaged with anti-discrimination law for a much longer time than those criticising it have also devised means to overcome the individualistic tendencies of rights adjudication. They have (partly successfully) argued in favour of establishing equality bodies and creating positive obligations. Thus, the critique neglects the field it takes on, and does not accept the fact that anti-discrimination law and policy must be considered a field in its own right instead of the servant of social law and policy.
Now, this is more a summary than an abstract - since I realise that not everyone reads German.

Spiritual capital and democratization in Zimbabwe:A case study of a progressive charismatic congregation

Throughout Africa, charismatic Christianity has been caricatured as an inhibitor of democratization. Its adherents are said either to withdraw from the rough and tumble of politics ('pietism') or to preach a prosperity gospel that encourages believers to pour their resources into their churches in the hope that God will 'bless' them. Both courses of action are said to encourage such people to be politically quietist, with no interest in democratization or other forms of political activity. This is said to thwart democratization. This article utilizes an ethnographic case study of a 'progressive' charismatic congregation in Harare, Zimbabwe, in 2007, to provide evidence that 'pietism' and 'prosperity' are not the only options for charismatic Christianity. Drawing on the concept of 'spiritual capital', it argues that some varieties of charismatic Christianity have the resources to contribute to democratization. For example, this congregation's self-styled 'de-institutionalization' process is opening up new avenues for people to learn democratic skills and develop a worldview that is relationship-centred, participatory, and anti-authoritarian. The article concludes that spiritual capital can be a useful tool for analysing the role of religions in democratizations. It notes, however, that analysts should take care to identify and understand what variety of spiritual capital is generated in particular situations, focusing on the worldviews it produces and the consequences of those worldviews for democratization. © 2009 Taylor & Francis.

CD38 expression level and pattern of expression remains a reliable and robust marker of progressive disease in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) follows a variable clinical course which is difficult to predict at diagnosis. We assessed somatic mutation (SHM) status, CD38 and ZAP-70 expression in 87 patients (49 male, 38 female) with stage A CLL and known cytogenetic profile to compare their role in predicting disease progression, which was assessed by the treatment free interval (TFI) from diagnosis. Sixty (69%) patients were SHM+, 24 (28%) were CD38+ and ten (12%) were ZAP-70+. The median TFI for: (i) SHM + versus SHM- patients was 124 versus 26 months; hazard ratio (HR) = 3.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.8 - 7.3; P = 0.001]: (ii) CD38- versus CD38+ patients was 120 versus 34 months; HR = 2.4 (95% CI = 1.4 - 5.3; P = 0.02); and (iii) ZAP70- versus ZAP70+ was 120 versus 16 months; HR = 3.4 (95% CI = 1.4 - 8.7; P = 0.01). SHM status and CD38 retained prognostic significance on multivariate analysis whereas ZAP-70 did not. We conclude that ZAP-70 analysis does not provide additional prognostic information in this group of patients.

Methodological variations in estimating apparent progressive visual field loss in clinical trials of glaucoma treatment.

OBJECTIVES:

To compare methods to estimate the incidence of visual field progression used by 3 large randomized trials of glaucoma treatment by applying these methods to a common data set of annually obtained visual field measurements of patients with glaucoma followed up for an average of 6 years.

METHODS:

The methods used by the Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (AGIS), the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (CIGTS), and the Early Manifest Glaucoma Treatment study (EMGT) were applied to 67 eyes of 56 patients with glaucoma enrolled in a 10-year natural history study of glaucoma using Program 30-2 of the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Humphrey Instruments, San Leandro, Calif). The incidence of apparent visual field progression was estimated for each method. Extent of agreement between the methods was calculated, and time to apparent progression was compared.

RESULTS:

The proportion of patients progressing was 11%, 22%, and 23% with AGIS, CIGTS, and EMGT methods, respectively. Clinical assessment identified 23% of patients who progressed, but only half of these were also identified by CIGTS or EMGT methods. The CIGTS and the EMGT had comparable incidence rates, but only half of those identified by 1 method were also identified by the other.

CONCLUSIONS:

The EMGT and CIGTS methods produced rates of apparent progression that were twice those of the AGIS method. Although EMGT, CIGTS, and clinical assessment rates were comparable, they did not identify the same patients as having had field progression.

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.