Preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a low-risk obstetric population: a discrete choice experiment

Objective: Establish maternal preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a healthy, low-risk pregnant population.

Design: Cross-sectional study incorporating a discrete choice experiment.

Setting: A large, urban maternity hospital in Northern Ireland.

Participants: One hundred and forty-six women in their second trimester of pregnancy.

Methods: A discrete choice experiment was designed to elicit preferences for four attributes of a third-trimester ultrasound scan: health-care professional conducting the scan, detection rate for abnormal foetal growth, provision of non-medical information, cost. Additional data collected included age, marital status, socio-economic status, obstetric history, pregnancy-specific stress levels, perceived health and whether pregnancy was planned. Analysis was undertaken using a mixed logit model with interaction effects.

Main outcome measures: Women's preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of a hypothetical scan and indirect willingness-to-pay estimates.

Results: Women had significant positive preference for higher rate of detection, lower cost and provision of non-medical information, with no significant value placed on scan operator. Interaction effects revealed subgroups that valued the scan most: women experiencing their first pregnancy, women reporting higher levels of stress, an adverse obstetric history and older women.

Conclusions: Women were able to trade on aspects of care and place relative importance on clinical, non-clinical outcomes and processes of service delivery, thus highlighting the potential of using health utilities in the development of services from a clinical, economic and social perspective. Specifically, maternal preferences exhibited provide valuable information for designing a randomized trial of effectiveness and insight for clinical and policy decision makers to inform woman-centred care.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Inorganic arsenic in Chinese food and its cancer risk

Even moderate arsenic exposure may lead to health problems, and thus quantifying inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure from food for different population groups in China is essential. By analyzing the data from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey (CNNHS) and collecting reported values of iAs in major food groups, we developed a framework of calculating average iAs daily intake for different regions of China. Based on this framework, cancer risks from As in food was deterministically and probabilistically quantified. The article presents estimates for health risk due to the ingestion of food products contaminated with arsenic. Both per individual and for total population estimates were obtained. For the total population, daily iAs intake is around 42 mu g day(-1), and rice is the largest contributor of total iAs intake accounting for about 60%. Incremental lifetime cancer risk from food iAs intake is 106 per 100,000 for adult individuals and the median population cancer risk is 177 per 100,000 varying between regions. Population in the Southern region has a higher cancer risk than that in the Northern region and the total population. Sensitive analysis indicated that cancer slope factor, ingestion rates of rice, aquatic products and iAs concentration in rice were the most relevant variables in the model, as indicated by their higher contribution to variance of the incremental lifetime cancer risk. We conclude that rice may be the largest contributor of iAs through food route for the Chinese people. The population from the South has greater cancer risk than that from the North and the whole population. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic Markers Enhance Coronary Risk Prediction in Men: The MORGAM Prospective Cohorts

Background: More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design.

Methods: Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived.

Results: Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events.

Conclusions: Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

Assessing parenting capacity in child protection: towards a knowledge-based model

The assessment of parenting capacity continues to engender public concern in cases of suspected harm to children. This paper outlines a model for approaching this task based on the application of three key domains of knowledge in social work relating to facts, theory and practice wisdom. The McMaster Model of Family Assessment is identified out of this process and reworked to give it a sharper focus on parenting roles and responsibilities. Seven formative dimensions of parenting are then elicited and combined with an analytical process of identifying strengths, concerns, prospects for growth and impact on child outcomes. The resulting assessment framework, it is argued, adds rigour to professional judgements about parenting capacity and enhances formulations on risk in child protection.

Assessing the environmental fate of selected polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the region surrounding the Zhuoshui River of Taiwan based on an Equilibrium Constant fugacity model

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a group of flame retardants that have been in use since the 1970s. They are included in the list of hazardous substances known as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) because they are extremely hazardous to the environment and human health. PBDEs have been extensively used in industry and manufacturing in Taiwan, thus its citizens are at high risk of exposure to these chemicals.
An assessment of the environmental fate of these compounds in the Zhuoshui river and Changhua County regions of western Taiwan, and also including the adjacent area of the Taiwan Strait, was conducted for three high risk congeners, BDE-47, -99 and -209, to obtain information regarding the partitioning, advection, transfer and long range transport potential of the PBDEs in order to identify the level of risk posed by the pollutants in this region.
The results indicate that large amounts of PBDEs presently reside in all model compartments – air, soil, water, and sediment – with particularly high levels found in air and especially in sediment. The high levels found in sediment, particularly for BDE-209, are significant, since there is the threat of these pollutants entering the food chain, either directly through benthic feeding, or through resuspension and subsequent feeding in the pelagic region of the water column which is a distinct possibility in the strong currents found within the Taiwan Strait. Another important result is that a substantial portion of emissions leave the model domain directly through advection, particularly for BDE-47 (58%) and BDE-209 (75%), thus posing a risk to adjacent communities.
Model results were generally in reasonable agreement with available measured concentrations. In air, model concentrations are in reasonably good agreement with available measured values. For both BDE-47 and -99, model concentrations are a factor of 2-3 higher and BDE-209 within the range of measured values. In soil, model results are somewhat less than measured values. In sediment, model results are at the high end of measured values.

Minimal intervention dentistry and older patients Part 1: Risk assessment and caries prevention

Ten million people in the UK today are aged over 65. The latest projections estimate that there will be 5 1/2 million more people aged 65 and older in the next 20 years. This projected pattern of population ageing will have profound consequences for dentistry. Minimal intervention dentistry (MID) is a modern evidence-based approach to caries management in dentate patients that uses the 'medical model' whereby disease is controlled by the 'oral physician'. This approach offers considerable benefits over conventional dentistry for older patients. It encourages patients to be responsible for their oral health through the provision of both knowledge and motivation. MID encompasses risk assessment for dental disease, early detection and control of disease processes, and minimally invasive treatment. 

Clinical Relevance: Risk assessment tools can aid the general dental practitioner and the patient to develop a suitable caries prevention programme for that individual and reduce the need for future operative intervention.

Sphingosine Kinase 1 Promotes Malignant Progression in Colon Cancer and Independently Predicts Survival of Patients With Colon Cancer by Competing Risk Approach in South Asian Population

OBJECTIVES: Sphingosine kinase 1 (SphK1) phosphorylates the membrane sphingolipid, sphingosine, to sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), an oncogenic mediator, which drives tumor cell growth and survival. Although SphK1 has gained increasing prominence as an oncogenic determinant in several cancers, its potential as a therapeutic target in colon cancer remains uncertain. We investigated the clinical relevance of SphK1 expression in colon cancer as well as its inhibitory effects in vitro.

METHODS: SphK1 expression in human colon tumor tissues was determined by immunohistochemistry and its clinicopathological significance was ascertained in 303 colon cancer cases. The effects of SphK1 inhibition on colon cancer cell viability and the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt cell survival pathway were investigated using a SphK1-selective inhibitor-compound 5c (5c). The cytotoxicity of a novel combination using SphK1 inhibition with the chemotherapeutic drug, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), was also determined.

RESULTS: High SphK1 expression correlated with advanced tumor stages (AJCC classification). Using a competing risk analysis model to take into account disease recurrence, we found that SphK1 is a significant independent predictor for mortality in colon cancer patients. In vitro, the inhibition of SphK1 induced cell death in colon cancer cell lines and attenuated the serum-dependent PI3K/Akt signaling. Inhibition of SphK1 also enhanced the sensitivity of colon cancer cells to 5-FU.

CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the impact of SphK1 in colon cancer progression and patient survival, and provide evidence supportive of further development in combination strategies that incorporate SphK1 inhibition with current chemotherapeutic agents to improve colon cancer outcomes.

Geotechnical failure risk reviewed

Slope instabilities – commonly triggered by rainfall – pose a geotechnical risk causing disruption to transport routes and incur significant financial resources. This article details laboratory, ground and remote sensing investigations carried out by Queen’s University Belfast and Transport Northern Ireland (TNI) to characterise and monitor slope instability on two higher risk infrastructure slopes in Northern Ireland. The research is used to update a noninvasive risk assessment model of slopes across the country’s road network to direct resources for future investigation.

The Prenatal Distress Questionnaire:An investigation of factor structure in a high risk population

Background: The Prenatal Distress Questionnaire (PDQ) is a short measure designed to assess specific worries and concerns related to pregnancy. The aim of this study was to confirm the factor structure of the PDQ in a group of pregnant women with a small for gestational age infant (< 10th centile). Methods: The first PDQ assessment for each of 337 pregnant women participating in the Prospective Observational Trial to Optimise paediatric health (PORTO) study was analysed. All women enrolled in the study were identified as having a small for gestational age foetus (< 10th centile), thus representing an 'elevated risk' group. Data were analysed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Three models of the PDQ were evaluated and compared in the current study: a theoretical uni-dimensional measurement model, a bi-dimensional model, and a three-factor model solution. Results: The three-factor model offered the best fit to the data while maintaining sound theoretical grounds(χ² (51df) = 128.52; CFI = 0.97; TLI = 0.96; RMSEA = 0.07). Factor 1 contained items reflecting concerns about birth and the baby, factor 2 concerns about physical symptoms and body image and factor 3 concerns about emotions and relationships. Conclusions: CFA confirmed that the three-factor model provided the best fit, with the items in each factor reflecting the findings of an earlier exploratory data analysis. © 2013 Society for Reproductive and Infant Psychology.

Decision making in child protection: An international comparative study on maltreatment substantiation, risk assessment and interventions recommendations, and the role of professionals’ child welfare attitudes

Child welfare professionals regularly make crucial decisions that have a significant impact on children and their families. The present study presents the Judgments and Decision Processes in Context model (JUDPIC) and uses it to examine the relationships between three indepndent domains: case characteristic (mother’s wish with regard to removal), practitioner characteristic (child welfare attitudes), and protective system context (four countries: Israel, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland and Spain); and three dependent factors: substantiation of maltreatment, risk assessment, and intervention recommendation.
The sample consisted of 828 practitioners from four countries. Participants were presented with a vignette of a case of alleged child maltreatment and were asked to determine whether maltreatment was substantiated, assess risk and recommend an intervention using structured instruments. Participants’ child welfare attitudes were assessed.
The case characteristic of mother’s wish with regard to removal had no impact on judgments and decisions. In contrast, practitioners’ child welfare attitudes were associated with substantiation, risk assessments and recommendations. There were significant country differences on most measures.
The findings support most of the predictions derived from the JUDPIC model. The significant differences between practitioners from different countries underscore the importance of context in child protection decision making. Training should enhance practitioners’ awareness of the impact that their attitudes and the context in which they are embedded have on their judgments and decisions.

Caregiving reduces mortality risk for most caregivers: a census-based record linkage study

Importance Countries with advanced welfare systems are increasingly relying on the input of informal caregivers and there are growing concerns for their mental and physical wellbeing. However, the evidence about the relationship between caregiving and mortality risk is less clear.

Methods A census-based record linkage study with mortality follow-up of thirty-three months. A total of 1,122,779 individuals including 183,842 caregivers, of whom 28.2% (51,927) were providing fifty or more hours caregiving per week.

Results Over thirty-three months of follow-up a total of 29,335 deaths occurred, with 2,443 of these to caregivers. Mortality risk for caregivers was lower than for non-caregivers (HR= 0.72: 95%CI=0.69, 0.75 in the fully adjusted model), and the lower risk was evident even for those providing fifty or more hours of caregiving per week (adjusted Hazard Ratio=0.77: 95%CI=0.71, 0.83 and 0.76: 95%CI=0.69, 0.83 for men and women respectively). There was no evidence that this relationship varied by either age or marital status. Even amongst people with chronic health problems such as poor mental health, caregivers had lower mortality risk than non-caregivers. Caregiving is associated with reduced mortality risk for most causes - for example, the risk of death from Ischaemic Heart Disease for caregivers providing fifty or more hours was 27% and 31% lower for men and for women respectively compared to non-caregivers (HR=0.73: 95%CI=0.60, 0.88 and HR=0.69: 95%CI=0.51, 0.92).

Conclusions This large population-based study confirms that for the majority of caregivers the beneficial effects of caregiving in terms of short-term mortality risk appear to outweigh any negative effects, even amongst people with significant health problems. These results underscore the need for a reappraisal of how caregiving is perceived.


Keywords: caregiving, carers, mortality, longitudinal follow-up.
marital status. Even amongst people with chronic health problems such as poor mental health, caregivers had lower mortality risk than non-caregivers. Caregiving is associated with reduced mortality risk for most causes - for example, the risk of death from Ischaemic Heart Disease for caregivers providing fifty or more hours was 27% and 31% lower for men and for women respectively compared to non-caregivers (HR=0.73: 95%CI=0.60, 0.88 and HR=0.69: 95%CI=0.51, 0.92).

Conclusions This large population-based study confirms that for the majority of caregivers the beneficial effects of caregiving in terms of short-term mortality risk appear to outweigh any negative effects, even amongst people with significant health problems. These results underscore the need for a reappraisal of how caregiving is perceived.

Maternal Risk Anxiety in Belfast: Claims, Evaluations, Responses

This paper considers the social logic of maternal anxiety about risks posed to children in segregated, post-conflict neighbourhoods. Focusing on qualitative research with mothers in Belfast’s impoverished and divided inner city, the paper draws on the interactionist perspective in the sociology of emotions to explore the ways in which maternal anxiety drives claims for recognition of good mothering, through orientations to these neighbourhoods. Drawing on Hirschman’s model of exit, loyalty and voice types of situated action, the paper examines the relationship between maternal risk anxiety and evaluations of neighbourhood safety. In arguing that emotions are important aspects of claims for social recognition, the paper demonstrates that anxiety provokes efforts to claim status, in this context through the explicit affirmation of non-sectarian mothering.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type Model Utilising a Multiclass Support Vector Machine for the Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a rare disease in which retinal blood vessels of premature infants fail to develop normally, and is one of the major causes of childhood blindness throughout the world. The Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) model consists of two components, the conditional component measuring the inter-relationships between covariates and the survival component which models the survival distribution using a Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper expands the DC-Ph models by introducing a support vector machine (SVM), in the role of the conditional component. The SVM is capable of classifying multiple outcomes and is used to identify the infant's risk of developing ROP. Class imbalance makes predicting rare events difficult. A new class decomposition technique, which deals with the problem of multiclass imbalance, is introduced. Based on the SVM classification, the length of stay in the neonatal ward is modelled using a 5, 8 or 9 phase Coxian distribution.