Monte Carlo studies of quantum and classical annealing on a double well

We present results for a variety of Monte Carlo annealing approaches, both classical and quantum, benchmarked against one another for the textbook optimization exercise of a simple one-dimensional double well. In classical (thermal) annealing, the dependence upon the move chosen in a Metropolis scheme is studied and correlated with the spectrum of the associated Markov transition matrix. In quantum annealing, the path integral Monte Carlo approach is found to yield nontrivial sampling difficulties associated with the tunneling between the two wells. The choice of fictitious quantum kinetic energy is also addressed. We find that a "relativistic" kinetic energy form, leading to a higher probability of long real-space jumps, can be considerably more effective than the standard nonrelativistic one.

Fictional Ulster:A map of places created by writers

Ballybeg, the fictitious setting for Brian Friel’s plays, is more famous than most real villages in Ulster. Despite not existing, the village has a kind of cultural and geographic life. This is part of what this map is about. It locates and charts Ulster’s fictional places — places invented by writers down through the years. These places have meaning too, they are part of how Ulster pictures itself and how others picture Ulster.

Anti-TNF antibody-induced psoriasiform skin lesions in patients with inflammatory bowel disease are characterised by interferon-γ-expressing Th1 cells and IL-17A/IL-22-expressing Th17 cells and respond to anti-IL-12/IL-23 antibody treatment

Background We analysed incidence, predictors, histological features and specific treatment options of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) antibody-induced psoriasiform skin lesions in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD).

Design Patients with IBD were prospectively screened for anti-TNF-induced psoriasiform skin lesions. Patients were genotyped for IL23R and IL12B variants. Skin lesions were examined for infiltrating Th1 and Th17 cells. Patients with severe lesions were treated with the anti-interleukin (IL)-12/IL-23 p40 antibody ustekinumab.

Results Among 434 anti-TNF-treated patients with IBD, 21 (4.8%) developed psoriasiform skin lesions. Multiple logistic regression revealed smoking (p=0.007; OR 4.24, 95% CI 1.55 to 13.60) and an increased body mass index (p=0.029; OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.24) as main predictors for these lesions. Nine patients with Crohn's disease and with severe psoriasiform lesions and/or anti-TNF antibody-induced alopecia were successfully treated with the anti-p40-IL-12/IL-23 antibody ustekinumab (response rate 100%). Skin lesions were histologically characterised by infiltrates of IL-17A/IL-22-secreting T helper 17 (Th17) cells and interferon (IFN)-gamma-secreting Th1 cells and IFN-alpha-expressing cells. IL-17A expression was significantly stronger in patients requiring ustekinumab than in patients responding to topical therapy (p=0.001). IL23R genotyping suggests disease-modifying effects of rs11209026 (p.Arg381Gln) and rs7530511 (p.Leu310Pro) in patients requiring ustekinumab.

Conclusions New onset psoriasiform skin lesions develop in nearly 5% of anti-TNF-treated patients with IBD. We identified smoking as a main risk factor for developing these lesions. Anti-TNF-induced psoriasiform skin lesions are characterised by Th17 and Th1 cell infiltrates. The number of IL-17A-expressing T cells correlates with the severity of skin lesions. Anti-IL-12/IL23 antibody therapy is a highly effective therapy for these lesions.

Communicating clinical trial outcomes: Effects of presentation method on physicians’ evaluations of new treatments

Physicians expect a treatment to be more effective when its clinical outcomes are described as relative rather than as absolute risk reductions. We examined whether effects of presentation method (relative vs. absolute risk reduction)
remain when physicians are provided the baseline risk information, a vital piece of statistical information omitted in previous studies. Using a between-subjects design, ninety five physicians were presented the risk reduction associated
with a fictitious treatment for hypertension either as an absolute risk reduction or as a relative risk reduction, with or without including baseline risk information. Physicians reported that the treatment would be more effective and that they would be more willing to prescribe it when its risk reduction was presented to them in relative rather than in absolute terms. The relative risk reduction was perceived as more effective than absolute risk reduction even when the baseline risk information was explicitly reported. We recommend that information about absolute risk reduction be made available to physicians in the reporting of clinical outcomes. Moreover, health professionals should be cognizant of the potential biasing effects of risk information presented in relative risk terms

Forensic analysis of wooden safety matches - A case study

In this case, an individual was suspected of attempting to burn materials potentially relating to a murder case. A number of spent and unspent matches were seized at the scene by police for forensic examination. Coincidentally, a police raid at the suspect's house revealed a number of matchboxes, all of the same brand, containing matches that had a visual similarity to those recovered at the scene. Stable Isotope Profiling (SIP) was used to assess whether matches could either be distinguished or shown to be indistinguishable by 13C and 2H isotopic composition. These results were then compared to those from the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of match heads and microscopy of the wood. SIP showed the scene matches and seized matches to be different, which was confirmed by XRD and microscopy analyses.

Match-fixing and Money-laundering

his essay is premised on the following: a conspiracy to fix or otherwise manipulate the outcome of a sporting event for profitable purpose. That conspiracy is in turn predicated on the conspirators’ capacity to: (a) ensure that the fix takes place as pre-determined; (b) manipulate the betting markets that surround the sporting event in question; and (c) collect their winnings undetected by either the betting industry’s security systems or the attention of any national regulatory body or law enforcement agency.

Unlike many essays on this topic, this contribution does not focus on the “fix”– part (a) of the above equation. It does not seek to explain how or why a participant or sports official might facilitate a betting scam through either on-field behaviour that manipulates the outcome of a game or by presenting others with privileged inside information in advance of a game. Neither does this contribution seek to give any real insight into the second part of the above equation: how such conspirators manipulate a sports betting market by playing or laying the handicap or in-play or other offered betting odds. In fact, this contribution is not really about the mechanics of sports betting or match fixing at all; rather it is about the sometimes under explained reason why match fixing has reportedly become increasingly attractive as of late to international crime syndicates. That reason relates to the fact that given the traditional liquidity of gambling markets, sports betting can, and has long been, an attractively accessible conduit for criminal syndicates to launder the proceeds of crime. Accordingly, the term “winnings”, noted in part (c) of the above equation, takes on an altogether more nefarious meaning.

This essay’s attempt to review the possible links between match fixing in sport, gambling-related “winnings” and money laundering is presented in four parts.

First, some context will be given to what is meant by money laundering, how it is currently policed internationally and, most importantly, how the growth of online gambling presents a unique set of vulnerabilities and opportunities to launder the proceeds of crime. The globalisation of organised crime, sports betting and transnational financial services now means that money laundering opportunities have moved well beyond a flutter on the horses at your local racetrack or at the roulette table of your nearest casino. The growth of online gambling platforms means that at a click it is possible for the proceeds of crime in one jurisdiction to be placed on a betting market in another jurisdiction with the winnings drawn down and laundered in a third jurisdiction and thus the internationalisation of gambling-related money laundering threatens the integrity of sport globally.

Second, and referring back to the infamous hearings of the US Senate Special Committee to Investigate Organised Crime in Interstate Commerce of the early 1950s, (“the Kefauver Committee”), this article will begin by illustrating the long standing interest of organised crime gangs – in this instance, various Mafia families in the United States – in money laundering via sports gambling-related means.

Third, and using the seminal 2009 report “Money Laundering through the Football Sector” by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF, an inter-governmental body established in 1989 to promote effective implementation of legal, regulatory and operational measures for combating money laundering, terrorist financing and other related threats to the integrity of the international financial system), this essay seeks to assess the vulnerabilities of international sport to match fixing, as motivated in part by the associated secondary criminality of tax evasion and transnational economic crime.

The fourth and concluding parts of the essay spin from problems to possible solutions. The underlying premise here is that heretofore there has been an insularity to the way that sports organisations have both conceptualised and sought to address the match fixing threat e.g., if we (in sport) initiate player education programmes; establish integrity units; enforce codes of conduct and sanctions strictly; then our integrity or brand should be protected. This essay argues that, although these initiatives are important, the source and process of match fixing is beyond sport’s current capacity, as are the possible solutions.

Islamic fundamentalism since 1945:2nd revised and expanded edition

Featuring a brand new examination of Islamic fundamentalism in the wake of the Arab Spring, this fully revised and updated second edition of Islamic Fundamentalism since 1945 analyzes the roots and emergence of Islamic movements in the modern world and the main thinkers that inspired them.

Providing a much-needed historical overview of a fast-changing socio-political landscape, the main facets of Islamic fundamentalism are put in a global context, with a thematic debate of issues such as:

- the effects of colonialism on Islam

- secularism and the Islamic reaction

- Islam and violence in the 9/11 era

- globalization and transnational Islamist movements

- Islam in the wake of the Arab Awakening

Islamic Fundamentalism since 1945 provides an authoritative account of the causes and diversity of Islamic fundamentalism, a modern phenomenon which has grabbed the headlines as a grave threat to the West and a potentially revolutionary trend in the Middle East. It is a valuable resource for students and those interested in the history, effects and consequences of these Islamic movements

Reliable survival analysis based on the Dirichlet Process

We present a robust Dirichlet process for estimating survival functions from samples with right-censored data. It adopts a prior near-ignorance approach to avoid almost any assumption about the distribution of the population lifetimes, as well as the need of eliciting an infinite dimensional parameter (in case of lack of prior information), as it happens with the usual Dirichlet process prior. We show how such model can be used to derive robust inferences from right-censored lifetime data. Robustness is due to the identification of the decisions that are prior-dependent, and can be interpreted as an analysis of sensitivity with respect to the hypothetical inclusion of fictitious new samples in the data. In particular, we derive a nonparametric estimator of the survival probability and a hypothesis test about the probability that the lifetime of an individual from one population is shorter than the lifetime of an individual from another. We evaluate these ideas on simulated data and on the Australian AIDS survival dataset. The methods are publicly available through an easy-to-use R package.

Establishing the Evidence Bar for Molecular Diagnostics in Personalised Cancer Care

While personalised cancer medicine holds great promise, targeting therapies to the biological characteristics of patients is limited by the number of validated biomarkers currently available. The implementation of biomarkers has undergone many challenges with few biomarkers reaching cancer patients in the clinic. There have been many biomarkers that have been published and claimed to be therapeutically useful, but few become part of the clinical decision-making process due to technical, validation and market access issues. To reduce this attrition rate, there is a significant need for policy makers and reimbursement agencies to define specific evidence requirements for the introduction of biomarkers into clinical practice. Once these requirements are more clearly defined, in an analogous manner to pharmaceuticals, researchers and diagnostic companies can better focus their biomarker research and development on meeting these specific requirements, which should lead to the more rapid introduction of new molecular oncology tests for patient benefit.

Corneal complications associated with topical ophthalmic use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs.

PURPOSE:

To explore the potential association between adverse corneal events and the use of topical nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs).

SETTING:

Practice-based reports.

METHODS:

A detailed case-reporting form and request for medical records were sent to all practices reporting cases of corneal or conjunctival pathology in association with the use of topical NSAIDs to the American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery. Cases were classified as "mild," "moderate," or "severe" according to predetermined clinical criteria.

RESULTS:

Records of 140 eyes (129 patients) were reviewed; 51 cases (36.4%) were mild, 55 (39.3%) moderate, and 34 (24.3%) severe. An association with a specific topical NSAID was confirmed in 117 cases (81.8%). Most confirmed cases (53.8%) involved generic diclofenac (Falcon). Cases associated with brand diclofenac (Voltaren, CIBA Vision) and ketorolac (Acular, Allergan) were more likely to have ocular comorbidity and to have received significantly higher total doses of NSAIDs. Neither "off-label" use nor use of any specific agent was associated with severe compared to mild or moderate disease. However, patients with more severe adverse events were more likely to have a history of diabetes, previous surgery in the affected eye, and surgery other than cataract. Cases not occurring in the perioperative period had significantly worse outcomes, had significantly more ocular comorbidities, and received nearly 3 times the dose of NSAIDs.

CONCLUSIONS:

While topical NSAIDs as a class may be associated with severe adverse events, such events appeared to require potentiation in the form of high total doses, ocular comorbidities, or both with Acular and Voltaren. Severe adverse events might have been more likely to occur at lower doses and in routine postoperative settings with generic diclofenac.

Branding strategies for high technology products: The effects of consumer and product innovativeness

Choice of an appropriate branding strategy is a critical determinant of new product success. Prior work on fast-moving-consumer-goods (FMCG) prescribes that new products carry new (vs. existing) brand names to appeal to earlier adopters - a critical target for new products. However, such a prescription may not be prudent for high-technology (HT) products, as they often involve considerably more consumer perceived risk than FMCG. By drawing on Dowling and Staelin's (1994) framework of perceived-risk handling, we propose that both earlier and later adopters will favor existing brands to cope with the elevated risk associated with an innovative HT product. Two studies - one conducted in an experimental setting and the other in a field setting - support the proposition that both earlier and later adopters respond more favorably to existing (vs. new) brands on innovative HT products.

The value of adjuvant radiotherapy on survival and recurrence in triple-negative breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 5,507 patients

BACKGROUND: The value of adjuvant radiotherapy in triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains unclear. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted in TNBC patients to assess survival and recurrence outcomes associated with radiotherapy following either breast conserving therapy (BCT) or post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT). METHODS: Four electronic databases were searched from January 2000 to November 2015 (PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science). Studies investigating overall survival and/or recurrence in TNBC patients according to radiotherapy administration were included. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted using mastectomy only patients as the reference.  RESULTS: Twelve studies were included. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) for locoregional recurrence comparing BCT and PMRT to mastectomy only was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-0.90) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.44-0.86), respectively. Adjuvant radiotherapy was not significantly associated with distant recurrence. The pooled HR for overall survival comparing BCT and PMRT to mastectomy only was 0.57 (95% CI 0.36-0.88) and HR 1.12 (95% CI 0.75, 1.69). Comparing PMRT to mastectomy only, tests for interaction were not significant for stage (p=0.98) or age at diagnosis (p=0.85). However, overall survival was improved in patients with late-stage disease (T3-4, N2-3) pooled HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.32-0.86), and women <40 years, pooled HR 0.30 (95% CI 0.11-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Adjuvant radiotherapy was associated with a significantly lower risk of locoregional recurrence in TNBC patients, irrespective of the type of surgery. While radiotherapy was not consistently associated with an overall survival gain, benefits may be obtained in women with late-stage disease and younger patients.