A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Delay times and rates for Type Ia supernovae and thermonuclear explosions from double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass models

We present theoretical delay times and rates of thermonuclear explosions that are thought to produce Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), including the double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass model, using the population synthesis binary evolution code startrack. If detonations of sub-Chandrasekhar mass carbon-oxygen white dwarfs following a detonation in an accumulated layer of helium on the white dwarf's surface ('double-detonation' models) are able to produce thermonuclear explosions which are characteristically similar to those of SNe Ia, then these sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosions may account for at least some substantial fraction of the observed SN Ia rate. Regardless of whether all double-detonations look like 'normal' SNe Ia, in any case the explosions are expected to be bright and thus potentially detectable. Additionally, we find that the delay time distribution of double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass SNe Ia can be divided into two distinct formation channels: the 'prompt' helium-star channel with delay times

Improving MTM-UAS to predetermine automotive maintenance times

The preventive knowledge of serviceability times is a critical factor for the quantification of after-sales services costs of a vehicle. Predetermined motion time system are frequently used to set labor rates in industry by quantifying the amount of time required to perform specific tasks. The first such system is known as Methods-time measurement (MTM). Several variants of MTM have been developed differing from each other on their level of focus. Among them MTM-UAS is suitable for processes that average around 1-3 min. However experimental tests carried out by the authors in Elasis (Research Center of FIAT Group) demonstrate that MTM-UAS is not the optimal approach to measure serviceability times. The reason is that it doesn't take into account ergonomic factors. In the present paper the authors propose to correct the MTM-UAS method including in the task analysis the study of human postures and efforts. The proposed approach allows to estimate with an "acceptable" error the time needed to perform maintenance tasks since the first phases of product design, by working on Digital Mock-up and human models in virtual environment. As a byproduct of that analysis, it is possible to obtain a list of maintenance times in order to preventively set after-sales service costs. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

MacIntyre and Havel as green political thinkers: Unreasonable thinking in turbulent times

Purpose This chapter explores the ideas of Alasdair MacIntyre and Vaclav Havel and what these two thinkers can contribute to green political theory. Design/methodology/approach This chapter includes examination of some of the key works of Havel and MacIntyre and analysis of these works from the point of view of green political theory. Findings The section ‘Havel and the Imperative to “Live in Truth”: Dissent and Green Politics’ explores Havel’s thought with a particular emphasis on his ethicised notion of political action and critique (‘living in truth’) and his focus on the centrality of dissent (both intellectually and in practice) as central to political critique and action. The section ‘MacIntyre as a Green Thinker: Vulnerability in Political and Moral Theory’ offers an overview of MacIntyre interpreted as a putative green thinker, with a particular emphasis on his ideas of dependence and vulnerability. The Conclusion attempts to draw some common themes together from both thinkers in terms of what they have to offer contemporary green political thought. Research limitations/implications What is presented here is introductory, ground clearing and therefore necessarily suggestive (as well as under-developed). That is, it is the start of a new area of exploration rather than an analysis based on any exhaustive and comprehensive knowledge of both thinkers. Practical implications This chapter offers some initial lines of exploration for scholars interested in the overlap between green thinking and the work of Havel and MacIntyre. Originality/value This is the first exploration of the connections between the works of Havel and MacIntyre and green political theory.

"Getting-by', Coping and Resilience in Difficult Times: Initial Findings

A report provided the initial findings from a research project that examined the resilience of households in Northern Ireland. Drawing on baseline survey data and qualitative interviews with households across four neighbourhoods, it outlined a range of challenges and the strategies used by households to 'get by'. The report said that, for these households, resilience was not about 'bouncing back', 'flourishing', or 'thriving' in the face of adversity, but was about not being overcome, 'getting-by', enduring, surviving, just 'getting on with things', and 'keeping their heads above the water'. The report noted the susceptibility of households to future stressors, such as welfare reform, especially those on means-tested benefits or with long-term illness or disability. Place, and relationships with family and friends, appeared to be important for resilience and future work would investigate this further. The report highlighted issues around the measurement of resilience and noted the importance of qualitative work.