Economic modelling of antenatal screening and ultrasound scanning programmes for identification of fetal abnormalities

Objective Within the framework of a health technology assessment and using an economic model, to determine the most clinically and cost effective policy of scanning and screening for fetal abnormalities in early pregnancy. Design A discrete event simulation model of 50,000 singleton pregnancies. Setting Maternity services in Scotland. Population Women during the first 24 weeks of their pregnancy. Methods The mathematical model was populated with data on uptake of screening, prevalence, detection and false positive rates for eight fetal abnormalities and with costs for ultrasound scanning and serum screening. Inclusion of abnormalities was based on the relative prevalence and clinical importance of conditions and the availability of data. Six strategies for the identification of abnormalities prenatally including combinations of first and second trimester ultrasound scanning and first and second trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities were compared. Main outcome measures The number of abnormalities detected and missed, the number of iatrogenic losses resulting from invasive tests, the total cost of strategies and the cost per abnormality detected were compared between strategies. Results First trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities costs more than second trimester screening but results in fewer iatrogenic losses. Strategies which include a second trimester ultrasound scan result in more abnormalities being detected and have lower costs per anomaly detected. Conclusions The preferred strategy includes both first and second trimester ultrasound scans and a first trimester screening test for chromosomal abnormalities. It has been recommended that this policy is offered to all women in Scotland.

Finite-Element Time-Step Coupled Generator, Load, AVR and Brushless Exciter Modelling

This paper presented results from a details and comprehensive simulation using finite element method of the practical operation of an electrical machine. The results it displayed have been used in practice to design more efficient equipment.

Process Modelling for Control of Product Wall Thickness in Thermoforming

The present paper describes the results of an investigation into the modelling of plug assisted thermoforming. The objective of this work was to improve the finite element modelling of thermoforming through an enhanced understanding of the physical elements underlying the process. Experiments were carried out to measure the effects on output of changes in major parameters and simultaneously simple finite element models were constructed. The experimental results show that the process creates conflicting and interrelated contact friction and heat transfer effects that largely dictate the final wall thickness distribution. From the simulation work it was demonstrated that a high coefficient of friction and no heat transfer can give a good approximation of the actual wall thickness distribution. However, when conduction was added to the model the results for lower friction values were greatly improved. It was concluded that further work is necessary to provide realistic measurements and models for contact effects in thermoforming.

Tight-binding simulation of current-carrying nanostructures

The tight-binding (TB) approach to the modelling of electrical conduction in small structures is introduced. Different equivalent forms of the TB expression for the electrical current in a nanoscale junction are derived. The use of the formalism to calculate the current density and local potential is illustrated by model examples. A first-principles time-dependent TB formalism for calculating current-induced forces and the dynamical response of atoms is presented. An earlier expression for current-induced forces under steady-state conditions is generalized beyond local charge neutrality and beyond orthogonal TB. Future directions in the modelling of power dissipation and local heating in nanoscale conductors are discussed.

Numerical simulation of separation factor of NaCl in surface force pore flow model

This work deals with modelling and experimental verification of desalination theory (surface force pore flow) . The work has direct application in desalination of sea water.

Modelling the correlation between processing parameters and properties of maraging steels using artificial neural network

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for the analysis and simulation of the correlation between the properties of maraging steels and composition, processing and working conditions. The input parameters of the model consist of alloy composition, processing parameters (including cold deformation degree, ageing temperature, and ageing time), and working temperature. The outputs of the ANN model include property parameters namely: ultimate tensile strength, yield strength, elongation, reduction in area, hardness, notched tensile strength, Charpy impact energy, fracture toughness, and martensitic transformation start temperature. Good performance of the ANN model is achieved. The model can be used to calculate properties of maraging steels as functions of alloy composition, processing parameters, and working condition. The combined influence of Co and Mo on the properties of maraging steels is simulated using the model. The results are in agreement with experimental data. Explanation of the calculated results from the metallurgical point of view is attempted. The model can be used as a guide for further alloy development.

Modelling the MAPK signalling pathway using a two-stage identification algorithm

Signal transduction pathways describe the dynamics of cellular response to input signalling molecules at receptors on the cell membrane. The Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase (MAPK) cascade is one of such pathways that are involved in many important cellular processes including cell growth and proliferation. This paper describes a black-box model of this pathway created using an advanced two-stage identification algorithm. Identification allows us to capture the unique features and dynamics of the pathway and also opens up the possibility of regulatory control design. In the approach described, an optimal model is obtained by performing model subset selection in two stages, where the terms are first determined by a forward selection method and then modified using a backward selection model refinement. The simulation results demonstrate that the model selected using the two-stage algorithm performs better than with the forward selection method alone.

A novel continuous forward algorithm for RBF neural modelling

A continuous forward algorithm (CFA) is proposed for nonlinear modelling and identification using radial basis function (RBF) neural networks. The problem considered here is simultaneous network construction and parameter optimization, well-known to be a mixed integer hard one. The proposed algorithm performs these two tasks within an integrated analytic framework, and offers two important advantages. First, the model performance can be significantly improved through continuous parameter optimization. Secondly, the neural representation can be built without generating and storing all candidate regressors, leading to significantly reduced memory usage and computational complexity. Computational complexity analysis and simulation results confirm the effectiveness.

Linear quadratic and tumour control probability modelling in external beam radiotherapy

The standard linear-quadratic (LQ) survival model for external beam radiotherapy is reviewed with particular emphasis on studying how different schedules of radiation treatment planning may be affected by different tumour repopulation kinetics. The LQ model is further examined in the context of tumour control probability (TCP) models. The application of the Zaider and Minerbo non-Poissonian TCP model incorporating the effect of cellular repopulation is reviewed. In particular the recent development of a cell cycle model within the original Zaider and Minerbo TCP formalism is highlighted. Application of this TCP cell-cycle model in clinical treatment plans is explored and analysed.

Diagnostic based modelling of radio-frequency driven atmospheric pressure plasmas

Diagnostic based modelling (DBM) actively combines complementary advantages of numerical plasma simulations and relatively simple optical emission spectroscopy (OES). DBM is employed to determine absolute atomic oxygen ground state densities in a helium–oxygen radio-frequency driven atmospheric pressure plasma jet. A comparatively simple one-dimensional simulation yields detailed information on electron properties governing the population dynamics of excited states. Important characteristics of the electron dynamics are found to be largely insensitive to details of the chemical composition and to be in very good agreement with space and phase-resolved OES. Benchmarking the time and space resolved simulation allows us to subsequently derive effective excitation rates as the basis for DBM with simple space and time integrated OES. The population dynamics of the upper O 3p 3P (? = 844 nm) atomic oxygen state is governed by direct electron impact excitation, dissociative excitation, radiation losses and collisional induced quenching. Absolute values for atomic oxygen densities are obtained through tracer comparison with the upper Ar 2p1 (? = 750.4 nm) state. The presented results for the atomic oxygen density show excellent quantitative agreement with independent two-photon laser-induced fluorescence measurements.

Physical modelling of millimetre wave signal reflection from forward biased PIN diodes

This paper examines the DC power requirements of PIN diodes which, with suitable applied DC bias, have the potential to reflect or to permit transmission of millimetre wave energy through them by the process of inducing a semiconductor plasma layer in the i-region. The study is conducted using device level simulation of SOI and bulk PIN diodes and reflection modelling based on the Drude conduction model. We examined five diode lengths (60–140 µm) and seven diode thicknesses (4–100 µm). Simulation output for the diodes of varying thicknesses was subsequently used in reflection modelling to assess their performance for 100 GHz operation. It is shown that substantially high DC input power is required in order to induce near total reflection in SOI PIN diodes at 100 GHz. Thinner devices consume less DC power, but reflect less incident radiation for given input power. SOI diodes are shown to have improved carrier confinement compared with bulk diodes.

Modelling the mechanical response of the reed-mouthpiece-lip system of a clarinet. Part II: A lumped model approximation

A non-linear lumped model of the reed-mouthpiece-lip system of a clarinet is formulated, in which the lumped parameters are derived from numerical experiments with a finite-difference simulation based on a distributed reed model. The effective stiffness per unit area is formulated as a function of the pressure signal driving the reed, in order to simulate the effects of the reed bending against the lay, and mass and damping terms are added as a first approximation to the dynamic behaviour of the reed. A discrete-time formulation is presented, and its response is compared to that of the distributed model. In addition, the lumped model is applied in the simulation of clarinet tones, enabling the analysis of the effects of using a pressure-dependent stiffness per unit area on sustained oscillations. The analysed effects and features are in qualitative agreement with players' experiences and experimental results obtained in prior studies.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

Automated nonlinear system modelling with multiple neural networks

This article discusses the identification of nonlinear dynamic systems using multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). It focuses on both structure uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, which have been widely explored in the literature of nonlinear system identification. The main contribution is that an integrated analytic framework is proposed for automated neural network structure selection, parameter identification and hysteresis network switching with guaranteed neural identification performance. First, an automated network structure selection procedure is proposed within a fixed time interval for a given network construction criterion. Then, the network parameter updating algorithm is proposed with guaranteed bounded identification error. To cope with structure uncertainty, a hysteresis strategy is proposed to enable neural identifier switching with guaranteed network performance along the switching process. Both theoretic analysis and a simulation example show the efficacy of the proposed method.