Risk: A Study of Its Origins, History and Politics

Over a period of several centuries, the academic study of risk has evolved as a distinct body of thought, which continues to influence conceptual developments in fields such as economics, management, politics and sociology. However, few scholarly works have given a chronological account of cultural and intellectual trends relating to the understanding and analysis of risks. Risk: A Study of its Origins, History and Politics aims to fill this gap by providing a detailed study of key turning points in the evolution of society's understanding of risk. Using a wide range of primary and secondary materials, Matthias Beck and Beth Kewell map the political origins and moral reach of some of the most influential ideas associated with risk and uncertainty at specific periods of time. The historical focus of the book makes it an excellent introduction for readers who wish to go beyond specific risk management techniques and their theoretical underpinnings, to gain an understanding of the history and politics of risk.

The Governance of Sexual Offending Across Europe: Penal Policies, Political Economies and the Institutionalization of Risk

This article examines why England and Wales have comparatively one of the most stringent systems for the governance of sexual offending within Western Europe. While England and Wales, like the USA, have adopted broadly exclusionary, managerialist penal policies based around incapacitation and targeted surveillance, many other Western European countries have opted for more inclusionary therapeutic interventions. Divergences in state approaches to sex offender risk, particularly in relation to notification and vetting schemes, are initially examined with reference to the respective theoretical frameworks of ‘policy transfer’ and differing political economies. Chiefly, however, differences in penal policies are attributed to the social and political construction of risk and its control. There may be multiple expressions of risk relating to expert, lay, moral or emotive aspects. It is argued, however, that it is the particular convergence and alignment of these dimensions on the part of the various stakeholders in the UK – government, media, public and professional – that leads to risk becoming institutionalized in the form of punitive regulatory policies for managing the dangerous.

Donor ABCB1 Variant Associates with Increased Risk for Kidney Allograft Failure

The impact of variation within genes responsible for the disposition and metabolism of calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs) on clinical outcomes in kidney transplantation is not well understood. Furthermore, the potential influence of donor, rather than recipient, genotypes on clinical endpoints is unknown. Here, we investigated the associations between donor and recipient gene variants with outcome among 4471 white, CNI-treated kidney transplant recipients. We tested for 52 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across five genes: CYP3A4, CYP3A5, ABCB1 (MDR1; encoding P-glycoprotein), NR1I2 (encoding the pregnane X receptor), and PPIA (encoding cyclophilin). In a discovery cohort of 811 patients from Birmingham, United Kingdom, kidney donor CC genotype at C3435T (rs1045642) within ABCB1, a variant known to alter protein expression, was associated with an increased risk for long-term graft failure compared with non-CC genotype (hazard ratio [HR], 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-2.40; P=0.003). No other donor or recipient SNPs were associated with graft survival or mortality. We validated this association in 675 donors from Belfast, United Kingdom (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.21-2.32; P=0.002), and in 2985 donors from the Collaborative Transplant Study (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.08-3.13; P=0.006). In conclusion, these data suggest that an ABCB1 variant known to alter protein expression represents an attractive candidate for future study and risk stratification in kidney transplantation.

The role of ECE1 variants in cognitive ability in old age and Alzheimer's disease risk

The ß-amyloid peptide may play a central role in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis. We have evaluated variants in seven Aß-degrading genes (ACE, ECE1, ECE2, IDE, MME, PLAU, and TF) for association with AD risk in the Genetic and Environmental Risk in Alzheimer's Disease Consortium 1 (GERAD1) cohort, and with three cognitive phenotypes in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936), using 128 and 121 SNPs, respectively. In GERAD1, we identified a significant association between a four-SNP intragenic ECE1 haplotype and risk of AD in individuals that carried at least one APOE e4 allele (P = 0.00035, odds ratio = 1.61). In LBC1936, we identified a significant association between a different two-SNP ECE1 intragenic haplotype and non-verbal reasoning in individuals lacking the APOE e4 allele (P = 0.00036, ß = -0.19). Both results showed a trend towards significance after permutation (0.05 <P <0.10). A follow-up cognitive genetic study evaluated the association of ECE1 SNPs in three additional cohorts of non-demented older people. Meta-analysis of the four cohorts identified the significant association (Z <0.05) of SNPs in the ECE-1b promoter with non-verbal reasoning scores, particularly in individuals lacking the APOE e4 allele. Our genetic findings are not wholly consistent. Nonetheless, the AD associated intronic haplotype is linked to the 338A variant of known ECE1b promoter variant, 338C>A (rs213045). We observed significantly less expression from the 338A variant in two human neuroblastoma cell lines and speculate that this promoter may be subject to tissue-specific regulation.

Obesity associated severe asthma represents a distinct clinical phenotype - Analysis of the British Thoracic Society Difficult Asthma Registry patient cohort according to body mass index

BACKGROUND: Obesity has emerged as a risk factor for the development of asthma and it may also influence asthma control and airways inflammation. However, the role of obesity in severe asthma remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between obesity (defined by BMI) and severe asthma. METHODS: Data from the National Registry for dedicated UK Difficult Asthma Services were used to compare patient demographics, disease characteristics and healthcare utilisation between three body mass index (BMI) categories (normal weight: 18.5 -24.99, overweight: 25 -29.99, obese: =30) in a well characterised group of severe asthmatic adults. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 666 severe asthmatics with a median BMI of 29.8 (interquartile range 22.5 -34.0). The obese group exhibited greater asthma medication requirements in terms of maintenance corticosteroid therapy (48.9% versus 40.4% and 34.5% in the overweight and normal weight groups, respectively), steroid burst therapy and short-acting ß2-agonist (SABA) use per day. Significant differences were seen with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) (53.9% versus 48.1% and 39.7% in the overweight and normal weight groups, respectively) and proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use. Bone density scores were higher in the obese group, whilst pulmonary function testing revealed a reduced FVC and raised Kco. Serum IgE levels decreased with increasing BMI and the obese group were more likely to report eczema, but less likely to have a history of nasal polyps. CONCLUSIONS: Severe asthmatics display particular characteristics according to BMI that support the view that obesity associated severe asthma may represent a distinct clinical phenotype.1Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK;2Department of Computing, Imperial College, UK3Airways Disease, National Heart & Lung Institute, Imperial College, UK;4Centre for infection and immunity, Queen's University of Belfast, UK;5University of Leicester, UK;6The University of Manchester and University Hospital of South Manchester, UK;7Birmingham Heartlands Hospital, University of Birmingham, UK;8Gartnavel General Hospital, University of Glasgow, UK;9Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UKCorrespondence: Dr Andrew N. Menzies-Gow, Royal Brompton Hospital, Fulham Road, London SW3 6HP.

Risk of fatal injury in older adult drivers, passengers, and pedestrians

Objectives To compare risk of fatal injury in elderly road users (drivers, passengers, pedestrians) with that of younger age groups and to assess the contribution of elderly road users to the number of reported fatalities in the population. Design Fatality age was categorized as 21 to 29, 30 to 39, 40 to 49, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, or 70 and older, and road user was categorized as driver, passenger, or pedestrian. Estimated number of trips made by each age group was used to adjust for exposure and to measure individual risk. Setting Fatalities recorded in Britain between 1989 and 2009. Participants Population-wide fatal injury counts in Britain. Measurements Age of fatally injured drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Estimated number of trips made per year by drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Results Risk of fatal injury, but not fatality numbers in the population, were higher for older adult (=70) drivers than for younger age groups. Risk of fatal injury was also high for older adult passengers and pedestrians, who represented the majority of older adult fatalities. Conclusion Previous emphasis on driver impairment in older age has unduly focussed attention on elderly drivers, who represent a minority of all driver fatalities. Older adults represent a much larger proportion of passenger and pedestrian fatalities. Additional policy schemes and initiatives should be targeted at safeguarding older adult passengers and making the road environment safer for elderly pedestrians. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.