Rasch Analysis of the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV)

PURPOSE. To examine internal consistency, refine the response scale, and obtain a linear scoring system for the visual function instrument, the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV). METHODS. Data were available from 186 participants with a clinical diagnosis of AMD who completed the 22-item DLTV (DLTV-22) according to four-point ordinal response scale. An independent group of 386 participants with AMD were administered a reduced version of the DLTV with 11 items (DLTV-11), according to a five-point response scale. Rasch analysis was performed on both datasets and used to generate item statistics for measure order, response odds ratios per item and per person, and infit and outfit mean square statistics. The Rasch output from the DLTV-22 was examined to identify redundant items and for factorial validity and person item measure separation reliabilities. RESULTS. The average rating for the DLTV-22 changed monotonically with the magnitude of the latent person trait. The expected versus observed average measures were extremely close, with step calibrations evenly separated for the four-point ordinal scale. In the case of the DLTV-11, step calibrations were not as evenly separated, suggesting that the five-point scale should be reduced to either a four- or three-point scale. Five items in the DLTV-22 were removed, and all 17 remaining items had good infit and outfit mean squares. PCA with residuals from Rasch analysis identified two domains containing 7 and 10 items each. The domains had high person separation reliabilities (0.86 and 0.77 for domains 1 and 2, respectively) and item measure reliabilities (0.99 and 0.98 for domains 1 and 2, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. With the improved internal consistency, establishment of the accuracy and precision of the rating scale for the DLTV and the establishment of a valid domain structure we believe that it constitutes a useful instrument for assessing visual function in older adults with age-related macular degeneration.

Probabilistic classification of acute myocardial infarction from multiple cardiac markers

Logistic regression and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifiers have been trained to estimate the probability of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients based upon the concentrations of a panel of cardiac markers. The panel consists of two new markers, fatty acid binding protein (FABP) and glycogen phosphorylase BB (GPBB), in addition to the traditional cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase MB (CKMB) and myoglobin. The effect of using principal component analysis (PCA) and Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) to preprocess the marker concentrations was also investigated. The need for classifiers to give an accurate estimate of the probability of AMI is argued and three categories of performance measure are described, namely discriminatory ability, sharpness, and reliability. Numerical performance measures for each category are given and applied. The optimum classifier, based solely upon the samples take on admission, was the logistic regression classifier using FDA preprocessing. This gave an accuracy of 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.91) and a normalised Brier score of 0.89. When samples at both admission and a further time, 1-6 h later, were included, the performance increased significantly, showing that logistic regression classifiers can indeed use the information from the five cardiac markers to accurately and reliably estimate the probability AMI. © Springer-Verlag London Limited 2008.

The discursive turn in policy analysis and the validation of policy stories

This paper is concerned with the language of policy documents in the field of health care, and how ‘readings’ of such documents might be validated in the context of a narrative analysis. The substantive focus is on a comparative study of UK health policy documents (N=20) as produced by the various assemblies, governments and executives of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland during the period 2000-2009. Following an identification of some key characteristics of narrative structure the authors indicate how text-mining strategies allied with features of semantic and network analysis can be used to unravel the basic elements of policy stories and to facilitate the presentation of data in such a way that readers can verify the strengths (and weaknesses) of any given analysis – with regard to claims concerning, say, the presence, absence, or relative importance of key ideas and concepts. Readers can also ‘see’ how the different components of any one story might fit together, and to get a sense of what has been excluded from the narrative as well as what has been included, and thereby assess the reliability and validity of interpretations that have been placed upon the data.

Reliability Assessment of 3-D Space Frame Structures Applying Stochastic Finite Element Analysis

Throughout design development of satellite structure, stress engineer is usually challenged with randomness in applied loads and material properties. To overcome such problem, a risk-based design is applied which estimates satellite structure probability of failure under static and thermal loads. Determining probability of failure can help to update initially applied factors of safety that were used during structure preliminary design phase. These factors of safety are related to the satellite mission objective. Sensitivity-based analysis is to be implemented in the context of finite element analysis (probabilistic finite element method or stochastic finite element method (SFEM)) to determine the probability of failure for satellite structure or one of its components.

Behaviour analysis and evidence-based education

Education has a powerful and long-term effect on people’s lives and therefore should be based on evidence of what works best. This assertion warrants a definition of what constitutes good research evidence. Two research designs that are often thought to come from diametrically opposed fields, single-subject research designs and randomised controlled-trials, are described and common features, such as the use of probabilistic assumptions and the aim of discovering causal relations are delineated. Differences between the two research designs are also highlighted and this is used as the basis to set out how these two research designs might better be used to complement one another. Recommendations for future action are made accordingly.

A unified view on the effect of fibers and loading on sfrc creep through linear projection to latent structures

Creep of Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete (SFRC) under flexural loads in the cracked state and to what extent different factors determine creep behaviour are quite understudied topics within the general field of SFRC mechanical properties. A series of prismatic specimens have been produced and subjected to sustained flexural loads. The effect of a number of variables (fiber length and slenderness, fiber content, and concrete compressive strength) has been studied in a comprehensive fashion. Twelve response variables (creep parameters measured at different times) have been retained as descriptive of flexural creep behaviour. Multivariate techniques have been used: the experimental results have been projected to their latent structure by means of Principal Components Analysis (PCA), so that all the information has been reduced to a set of three latent variables. They have been related to the variables considered and statistical significance of their effects on creep behaviour has been assessed. The result is a unified view on the effects of the different variables considered upon creep behaviour: fiber content and fiber slenderness have been detected to clearly modify the effect that load ratio has on flexural creep behaviour.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for MAP Inference in Graphical Models

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

Hybrid probabilistic wind power forecasting using temporally local Gaussian process

The demand for sustainable development has resulted in a rapid growth in wind power worldwide. Despite various approaches have been proposed to improve the accuracy and to overcome the uncertainties associated with traditional methods, the stochastic and variable nature of wind still remains the most challenging issue in accurately forecasting wind power. This paper presents a hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method where a temporally local ‘moving window’ technique is used in Gaussian Process to examine estimated forecasting errors. This temporally local Gaussian Process employs less measurement data while faster and better predicts wind power at two wind farms, one in the USA and the other in Ireland. Statistical analysis on the results shows that the method can substantially reduce the forecasting error while more likely generate Gaussian-distributed residuals, particularly for short-term forecast horizons due to its capability to handle the time-varying characteristics of wind power.

Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

What do people think about running barefoot/with minimalist footwear? A thematic analysis

Objectives

Barefoot running describes when individuals run without footwear. Minimalist running utilizes shoes aimed to mimic being barefoot. Although these forms of running have become increasingly popular, we still know little about how recreational runners perceive them.
Design

In-depth interviews with eight recreational runners were used to gather information about their running experiences with a focus on barefoot and minimalist running.
Methods

Interviews were analysed using a latent level thematic analysis to identify and interpret themes within the data.
Results

Although participants considered barefoot running to be ‘natural’, they also considered it to be extreme. Minimalist running did not produce such aversive reactions. ‘Support’ reassured against concerns and was seen as central in protecting vulnerable body parts and reducing impact forces, but lacked a common or clear definition. A preference for practical over academic knowledge was found. Anecdotal information was generally trusted, as were running stores with gait assessment, but not health professionals.
Conclusion

People often have inconsistent ideas about barefoot and minimalist running, which are often formed by potentially biased sources, which may lead people to make poor decisions about barefoot and minimalist running. It is important to provide high-quality information to enable better decisions to be made about barefoot and minimalist running.

Statement of contribution

What is already known on this subject?
There is no known work on the psychology behind barefoot and minimalist running. We believe our study is the first qualitative study to have investigated views of this increasingly popular form of running.
What does this study add?
The results suggest that although barefoot running is considered ‘natural’, it is also considered ‘extreme’. Minimalist running, however, did not receive such aversive reactions.
‘Support’ was a common concern among runners. Although ‘support’ reassured against concerns and was seen as central in protecting vulnerable body parts and reducing impact forces, it lacked a common or clear definition.
A preference for practical over academic knowledge was found. Anecdotal information was generally trusted, as were running stores with gait assessment, but not health professionals.