NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

Review and meta-analysis of the short-term effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on food intake

Several short-term studies have investigated the effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on subsequent food intake, although findings have been inconsistent. This work aimed to review all studies, and investigate differences in study outcomes based on methodology. All known studies were identified. Data were abstracted from published studies (n = 7). Details of unpublished studies were gained from investigators/sponsors (n = 5), or were unavailable for reasons of confidentiality (n = 4). Available data were combined using meta-analyses. A combined appetite suppressant effect of the emulsion compared with control was found for test meal intake at approximately 4, 12 and 36 h post-treatment: smallest combined mean difference (random effects model) = 0.53 MJ (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.86), P < 0.01. However, considerable heterogeneity (variability) between study results was also found (smallest I2 = 94%, P < 0.01), questioning the predictive validity of the above findings. Meta-regression suggested this heterogeneity to be related to differences in the processed nature of the product, treatment dose and in particular year of study (smallest B = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.06, 1.03, P = 0.04), although again heterogeneity was found. The only consistent finding was a lack of effect on food intake 4 h post-preload in studies conducted after 2003. These results suggest a small but inconsistent appetite suppressant effect of the vegetable oil emulsion. However, due to the large heterogeneity, no definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Numerical simulation of a patent technology for sealing of deep-sea oil wells using nonlinear finite element method

For over 50 years bridge plugs and cement have been used for well abandonment and work over and are still the material of choice. However the failures of cement abandonments using bridge plugs has been reported on many occasions, some of which have resulted in fatal consequences. A new patented product is designed to address the shortcomings associated with using bridge plugs and cement. The new developed tools use an alloy based on bismuth that is melted in situ using Thermite reaction. The tool uses the expansion properties of bismuth to seal the well. Testing the new technology in real field under more than 2 km deep sea water can be expensive. Virtual simulation of the new device under simulated thermal and mechanical environment can be achieved using nonlinear finite element method to validate the product and reduce cost. Experimental testing in the lab is performed to measure heat generated due to thermite reaction. Then, a sequential thermal mechanical explicit/implicit finite element solver is used to simulate the device under both testing lab and deep water conditions.

Tea tree oil (5%) body wash versus standard care (Johnson's Baby Softwash) to prevent colonization with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in critically ill adults::a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the daily use of 5% tea tree oil (TTO) body wash (Novabac 5% Skin Wash) compared with standard care [Johnson's Baby Softwash (JBS)] had a lower incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization.

PATIENTS: The study setting was two intensive care units (ICUs; mixed medical, surgical and trauma) in Northern Ireland between October 2007 and July 2009. The study population comprised 391 patients who were randomized to JBS or TTO body wash.

METHODS: This was a Phase 2/3, prospective, open-label, randomized, controlled trial. Trial registration: ISRCTN65190967. The primary outcome was new MRSA colonization during ICU stay. Secondary outcomes included the incidence of MRSA bacteraemia and maximum increase in sequential organ failure assessment score.

RESULTS: A total of 445 patients were randomized to the study. After randomization, 54 patients were withdrawn; 30 because of a positive MRSA screen at study entry, 11 due to lack of consent, 11 were inappropriately randomized and 2 had adverse reactions. Thirty-nine (10%) patients developed new MRSA colonization (JBS n?=?22, 11.2%; TTO body wash n?=?17, 8.7%). The difference in percentage colonized (2.5%, 95% CI -?8.95 to 3.94; P?=?0.50) was not significant. The mean maximum increase in sequential organ failure assessment score was not significant (JBS 1.44, SD 1.92; TTO body wash 1.28, SD 1.79; P?=?0.85) and no study patients developed MRSA bacteraemia.

CONCLUSIONS: Compared with JBS, TTO body wash cannot be recommended as an effective means of reducing MRSA colonization.

Heavier-than-water silicone oil mixture as a long-term tamponade agent:A pilot study

Purpose: To evaluate the tamponade effect on the retina of a heavier-than-water silicone oil mixture and to compare it with the effect of silicone oil. Methods: Prospective, non-randomised, comparative pilot study. Phakic/pseudophakic patients with retinal detachment undergoing vitrectomy with Densiron 68 or silicone oil were recruited. The 'separation volume', defined as the relative volume of the space between intraocular tamponade agent and retina, was estimated using magnetic resonance imaging in both groups and compared. Results: Nine participants were included; 4 received silicone oil and 5 Densiron 68. The mean separation volume was statistically significantly larger in the silicone oil group (0.477 ± 0.419 cm ) than in the Densiron group (0.042 ± 0.013 cm ; p = 0.014). Conclusions: In this study Densiron achieved an excellent tamponade effect in the retina. © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.