Predicting the past: Understanding the causes of bank distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s

Why do some banks fail in financial crises while others survive? This article answers this question by analysing the effect of the Dutch financial crisis of the 1920s on 142 banks, of which 33 failed. We find that choices of balance sheet composition and product market strategy made in the lead-up to the crisis had a significant impact on banks’ subsequent chances of experiencing distress. We document that high-risk banks – those operating highly-leveraged portfolios and attracting large quantities of deposits – were more likely to fail. Branching and international activities also increased banks’ default probabilities. We measure the effects of board interlocks, which have been characterized in the extant literature as contributing to the Dutch crisis. We find that boards mattered: failing banks had smaller boards, shared directors with smaller and very profitable banks and had a lower concentration of interlocking directorates in non-financial firms.

Detection of Lateglacial distal tephra layers in the Netherlands

Three distal tephra layers or cryptotephras have been detected within a sedimentary sequence from the Netherlands that spans the last glacial-interglacial transition. Geochemical analyses identify one as the Vedde Ash, which represents the southernmost discovery of this mid-Younger Dryas tephra so far. This tephra was found as a distinct horizon in three different cores sampled within the basin. The remaining two tephras have not been geochemically ‘fingerprinted’, partly due to low concentrations and uneven distributions of shards within the sequences sampled. Nevertheless, there is the potential for tracing these tephra layers throughout the Netherlands and into other parts of continental Europe. Accordingly, the possibilities for precise correlation of Dutch palaeoenvironmental records with other continental, marine and ice-core records from the North Atlantic region are highlighted.

Book Review - An Architecture of Parts: Architects, Building Workers and Industrialisation in Britain 1940–1970 by Christine Wall and Architecture and the Welfare State, edited by Mark Swenarton, Tom Avermaete and Dirk van den Heuvel.

Min-BDeu and Max-BDeu Scores for Learning Bayesian Networks

This work presents two new score functions based on the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent uniform (BDeu) score for learning Bayesian network structures. They consider the sensitivity of BDeu to varying parameters of the Dirichlet prior. The scores take on the most adversary and the most beneficial priors among those within a contamination set around the symmetric one. We build these scores in such way that they are decomposable and can be computed efficiently. Because of that, they can be integrated into any state-of-the-art structure learning method that explores the space of directed acyclic graphs and allows decomposable scores. Empirical results suggest that our scores outperform the standard BDeu score in terms of the likelihood of unseen data and in terms of edge discovery with respect to the true network, at least when the training sample size is small. We discuss the relation between these new scores and the accuracy of inferred models. Moreover, our new criteria can be used to identify the amount of data after which learning is saturated, that is, additional data are of little help to improve the resulting model.

Extended Tree Augmented Naive Classifier

This work proposes an extended version of the well-known tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN) classifier where the structure learning step is performed without requiring features to be connected to the class. Based on a modification of Edmonds’ algorithm, our structure learning procedure explores a superset of the structures that are considered by TAN, yet achieves global optimality of the learning score function in a very efficient way (quadratic in the number of features, the same complexity as learning TANs). A range of experiments show that we obtain models with better accuracy than TAN and comparable to the accuracy of the state-of-the-art classifier averaged one-dependence estimator.

Female narratives of ‘new’ citizens’ belonging(s) and identities in Europe: case studies from the Netherlands and Britain

Public discourses on citizenship, identity and nationality, which link geographical borders and the political boundaries of a community, are infused with tensions and contradictions. This paper illustrates how these tensions are interwoven with multilayered notions of home, belonging, migration, citizenship and individual’s ‘longing just to be’, focusing on the Dutch and the British context. The narratives of a number of Dutch and British women, who either immigrated to the respective countries or were born to immigrants, illustrate how the growing rigid integration and assimilative discourses in Europe contradict an individual anchoring in national and local communities. The narratives of women participating in these studies show multilayered angles of belonging presenting an alternative to the increasing strong argument for a fixed notion of positioning and national belonging. The female ‘new’ citizens in our study tell stories of individual choices, social mobility and a sense of multiple belonging in and across different communities.

Green Space Attachment and Health: A Comparative Study in Two Urban Neighborhoods

The positive relationships between urban green space and health have been well documented. Little is known, however, about the role of residents’ emotional attachment to local green spaces in these relationships, and how attachment to green spaces and health may be promoted by the availability of accessible and usable green spaces. The present research aimed to examine the links between self-reported health, attachment to green space, and the availability of accessible and usable green spaces. Data were collected via paper-mailed surveys in two neighborhoods (n = 223) of a medium-sized Dutch city in the Netherlands. These neighborhoods differ in the perceived and objectively measured accessibility and usability of green spaces, but are matched in the physically available amount of urban green space, as well as in demographic and socio-economic status, and housing conditions. Four dimensions of green space attachment were identified through confirmatory factor analysis: place dependence, affective attachment, place identity and social bonding. The results show greater attachment to local green space and better self-reported mental health in the neighborhood with higher availability of accessible and usable green spaces. The two neighborhoods did not differ, however, in physical and general health. Structural Equation Modelling confirmed the neighborhood differences in green space attachment and mental health, and also revealed a positive path from green space attachment to mental health. These findings convey the message that we should make green places, instead of green spaces.

De triomf van de tiran: Triumphi als kritiekmiddel in Romeinse literatuur

Of all the rituals of ancient Rome none was more spectacular than the triumph. Scholarly attention has long been devoted to the origins and circumstances of this ritual, but lately the role of the triumph in moral discourse has also come into focus. Emperors could gain great military prestige from celebrating a triumphus, yet this prestige could (posthumously) be undermined by hostile historians and biographers who used descriptions of triumphal processions to cast unpopular emperors in a negative light. Discussing in particular the ‘bad triumphs’ of Nero, Elagabalus, and Gallienus, but also considering many other cases, this article explores how triumphal descriptions could be employed as literary weapons. Ancient authors did not hesitate to emphasize, distort, or invent certain aspects of the ritual to suit their purposes. In fact, the triumphal idiom proved such a powerful tool for the delegitimation of emperors that it was even employed to situations which did not constitute triumphal celebrations at all. Hence the cultural elite sought to control the meaning of the ritual and to establish whether emperors counted as benign rulers or tyrants.