Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Parameterizable QR core

The design of a generic QR core for adaptive beamforming is presented. The work relies on an existing mapping technique that can be applied to a triangular QR array in such a way to allow the generation of a range of QR architectures. All scheduling of data inputs and retiming to include processor latency has been included within the generic representation.

“Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems”

Title: Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems
Authors: Joanne Murphy & Mary Lee Rhodes

The definition of the boundary of a system is at the core of any systems approach (Midgley 2000; 2003). By defining boundaries we enable – and delimit – the range of outcomes sought and the actions and resources that can be brought to bear. In complex adaptive systems (CAS) analysis, the conceptualisaion and definition of boundaries is particularly challenging as they are constantly undergoing redefinition through agent action, interaction and entry/exit. (Rhodes et al 2011). The concept of ‘boundaries’ appears regularly in a wide range of literature around public management, administration, geopolitics, regeneration and organisational development. Discussions around boundaries focus on many things from concrete physical manifestations and barriers, to virtual interfaces between one organisational unit and another, or even entirely theoretical demarcations between different schools of thought (Kaboolian, 1998, Levi-Faur, 2004, Agranoff & McGuire, 2004).

However, managing ‘beyond’ such boundaries is a routinely recurring aspiration that transcends sectors and local concerns. Unsurprisingly then, there is an increasing understanding of the need to acknowledge and manage such boundaries (whether they be physical, social or organisational) within public management as a discipline (Currie et al 2007, Fitzsimmons and White, 1997, Murtagh, 2002). This paper explores the impact of boundaries on public management strategic decision-making in the sectors of urban regeneration and healthcare. In particular, it focuses on demarcations to physical space, communal identity and within professional relationships in these sectors.

The first section describes the research that gave rise to the paper and the cases examined. Next we briefly define what we mean by boundaries. We explore issues that have emerged from our analysis of urban regeneration and health care singularly, before looking at how the concept of boundaries is a recurrent concern across the sectors. The main contribution of the paper is an exploration of how a CAS lens can bring a new insight into the concept of boundaries and decision-making in the two sets of case studies. This discussion will concentrate on initial conditions, bifurcation and adaptation as key CAS factors in relation to boundaries. We conclude with a brief discussion on the benefits of a CAS lens to an analysis of boundaries in public management decision-making.
References:

Agranoff, R. and McGuire, M. (2003) Collaborative Public Management: Strategies for Local Government. Washington, DC: Georgetown Univ. Press.

Currie, G., Lockett, A. (2007) “A critique of transformational leadership: moral, professional & contingent dimensions of leadership within public services organizations”. Human Relations 60: 341-370.

Fitzsimmons and White, (1997) "Crossing boundaries: communication between professional groups", Journal of Management in Medicine, Vol. 11 Iss: 2, pp.96 – 101

Kaboolian, L. (1998) “The New Public Management: Challenging the Boundaries of the Management vs. Administration Debate” Public Administration Review Vol. 58, No. 3 pp.189-193

Levi-Faur D. and Vigoda-Gadot Eran (eds) (2004) International Public Policy and Management: Policy Learning Beyond Regional, Cultural and Political Boundaries, Marcel Dekker,
Midgley, G. (ed) (2003) Systems Thinking. London: Sage Publications

Midgley, G. (2000) Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology and Practice. New York, NY: Kluwer.

Murtagh, B. (2002). The Politics of Territory: Policy and Segregation in Northern Ireland. Basingstoke, Palgrave.

Rhodes, ML, Joanne Murphy, Jenny Muir, John Murray (2011) Public Management & Complexity Theory: Richer Decision Making in Irish Public Services, UK: Routledge

The lipopolysaccharide core of Brucella abortus acts as a shield against innate immunity recognition

Innate immunity recognizes bacterial molecules bearing pathogen-associated molecular patterns to launch inflammatory responses leading to the activation of adaptive immunity. However, the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) of the gram-negative bacterium Brucella lacks a marked pathogen-associated molecular pattern, and it has been postulated that this delays the development of immunity, creating a gap that is critical for the bacterium to reach the intracellular replicative niche. We found that a B. abortus mutant in the wadC gene displayed a disrupted LPS core while keeping both the LPS O-polysaccharide and lipid A. In mice, the wadC mutant induced proinflammatory responses and was attenuated. In addition, it was sensitive to killing by non-immune serum and bactericidal peptides and did not multiply in dendritic cells being targeted to lysosomal compartments. In contrast to wild type B. abortus, the wadC mutant induced dendritic cell maturation and secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines. All these properties were reproduced by the wadC mutant purified LPS in a TLR4-dependent manner. Moreover, the core-mutated LPS displayed an increased binding to MD-2, the TLR4 co-receptor leading to subsequent increase in intracellular signaling. Here we show that Brucella escapes recognition in early stages of infection by expressing a shield against recognition by innate immunity in its LPS core and identify a novel virulence mechanism in intracellular pathogenic gram-negative bacteria. These results also encourage for an improvement in the generation of novel bacterial vaccines.

A self-learning algorithm for biased molecular dynamics

A new self-learning algorithm for accelerated dynamics, reconnaissance metadynamics, is proposed that is able to work with a very large number of collective coordinates. Acceleration of the dynamics is achieved by constructing a bias potential in terms of a patchwork of one-dimensional, locally valid collective coordinates. These collective coordinates are obtained from trajectory analyses so that they adapt to any new features encountered during the simulation. We show how this methodology can be used to enhance sampling in real chemical systems citing examples both from the physics of clusters and from the biological sciences.

A Molecular Dynamics Study of the Early Stages of Calcium Carbonate Growth

The precipitation of calcium carbonate in water has been examined using a combination of molecular dynamics and umbrella sampling. During 20 ns molecular dynamics trajectories at elevated calcium carbonate concentrations, amorphous particles are observed to form and appear to be composed of misaligned domains of vaterite and aragonite. The addition of further calcium ions to these clusters is found to be energetically favorable and virtually barrierless. By contrast, there is a large barrier to the addition of calcium to small calcite crystals. Thus, even though calcite nanocrystals are stable in solution, at high supersaturations, particles of amorphous material form because this material grows much faster than ordered calcite nanocrystals.

Late Pleistocene climate change and landscape dynamics in the Eastern Alps: the inner-alpine Unterangerberg record (Austria)

Drill cores from the inner-alpine valley terrace of Unterangerberg, located in the Eastern Alps of Austria, offer first insights into a Pleistocene sedimentary record that was not accessible so far. The succession comprises diamict, gravel, sand, lignite and thick, fine grained sediments. Additionally, cataclastic deposits originating from two paleo-landslide events are present. Multi-proxy analyses including sedimentological and palynological investigations as well as radiocarbon and luminescence data record the onset of the last glacial period (Wurmian) at Unterangerberg at similar to 120-110 ka. This first time period, correlated to the MIS 5d, was characterised by strong fluvial aggradation under cold climatic conditions, with only sparse vegetation cover. Furthermore, two large and quasi-synchronous landslide events occurred during this time interval. No record of the first Early Wiirmian interstadial (MIS 5c) is preserved. During the second Early Wiirmian interstadial (MIS 5a), the local vegetation was characterised by a boreal forest dominated by Picea, with few thermophilous elements. The subsequent collapse of the vegetation is recorded by sediments dated to similar to 70-60 ka (i.e. MIS 4), with very low pollen concentrations and the potential presence of permafrost. Climatic conditions improved again between similar to 55 and 45 ka (MIS 3) and cold-adapted trees re-appeared during interstadials, forming an open forest vegetation. MIS 3 stadials were shorter and less severe than the MIS 4 at Unterangerberg, and vegetation during these cold phases was mainly composed of shrubs, herbs and grasses, similar to what is known from today's alpine timberline. The Unterangerberg record ended at similar to 45 ka and/or was truncated by ice during the Last Glacial Maximum. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulations of Biased Agonists in the β2 Adrenergic Receptor with Accelerated Molecular Dynamics

The biased agonism of the G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), where in addition to a traditional G protein-signalling pathway a GPCR promotes intracellular signals though ß-arrestin, is a novel paradigm in pharmacology. Biochemical and biophysical studies have suggested that a GPCR forms a distinct ensemble of conformations signalling through the G protein and ß-arrestin. Here we report on the dynamics of the ß2 adrenergic receptor bound to the ß-arrestin and G protein biased agonists and the empty receptor to further characterize the receptor conformational changes caused by biased agonists. We use conventional and accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) simulations to explore the conformational transitions of the GPCR from the active state to the inactive state. We found that aMD simulations enable monitoring the transition within the nanosecond timescale while capturing the known microscopic characteristics of the inactive states, such as the ionic lock, the inward position of F6.44, and water clusters. Distinct conformational states are shown to be stabilized by each biased agonist. In particular, in simulations of the receptor with the ß-arrestin biased agonist, N-cyclopentylbutanepherine we observe a different pattern of motions in helix 7 when compared to simulations with the G protein biased agonist, Salbutamol that involves perturbations of the network of interactions within the NPxxY motif. Understanding the network of interactions induced by biased ligands and the subsequent receptor conformational shifts will lead to development of more efficient drugs. © 2013 American Chemical Society

Are there species smaller than 1 mm?

The rapid advance in genetic sequencing technologies has provided an unprecedented amount of data on the biodiversity of meiofauna. It was hoped that these data would allow the identification and counting of species, distinguished as tight clusters of similar genomes. Surprisingly, this appears not to be the case. Here, we begin a theoretical discussion of this phenomenon, drawing on an individual-based ecological model to inform our arguments. The determining factor in the emergence (or not) of distinguishable genetic clusters in the model is the product of population size with mutation rate—a measure of the adaptability of the population as a whole. This result suggests that indeed one should not expect to observe clearly distinguishable species groupings in data gathered from ultrasequencing of meiofauna.

Adaptive Measurement-Based Policy-Driven QoS Management with Fuzzy-Rule-based Resource Allocation

Fixed and wireless networks are increasingly converging towards common connectivity with IP-based core networks. Providing effective end-to-end resource and QoS management in such complex heterogeneous converged network scenarios requires unified, adaptive and scalable solutions to integrate and co-ordinate diverse QoS mechanisms of different access technologies with IP-based QoS. Policy-Based Network Management (PBNM) is one approach that could be employed to address this challenge. Hence, a policy-based framework for end-to-end QoS management in converged networks, CNQF (Converged Networks QoS Management Framework) has been proposed within our project. In this paper, the CNQF architecture, a Java implementation of its prototype and experimental validation of key elements are discussed. We then present a fuzzy-based CNQF resource management approach and study the performance of our implementation with real traffic flows on an experimental testbed. The results demonstrate the efficacy of our resource-adaptive approach for practical PBNM systems

Adaptive Fusion Of Particle Filtering And Spatio-Temporal Motion Energy For Human Tracking

Object tracking is an active research area nowadays due to its importance in human computer interface, teleconferencing and video surveillance. However, reliable tracking of objects in the presence of occlusions, pose and illumination changes is still a challenging topic. In this paper, we introduce a novel tracking approach that fuses two cues namely colour and spatio-temporal motion energy within a particle filter based framework. We conduct a measure of coherent motion over two image frames, which reveals the spatio-temporal dynamics of the target. At the same time, the importance of both colour and motion energy cues is determined in the stage of reliability evaluation. This determination helps maintain the performance of the tracking system against abrupt appearance changes. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the other state of the art techniques in the used test datasets.

Flexible fault ride through strategy for wind farm clusters in power systems with high wind power penetration

This paper investigates a flexible fault ride through strategy for power systems in China with high wind power penetration. The strategy comprises of adaptive fault ride through requirements and maximum power restrictions of the wind farms with weak fault ride through capabilities. The slight faults and moderate faults with high probability are the main defending objective of the strategy. The adaptive fault ride through requirement in the strategy consists of two sub fault ride through requirements, a temporary slight voltage ride through requirement corresponding to a slight fault incident, with a moderate voltage ride through requirement corresponding to a moderate fault. The temporary overloading capability of the wind farm is reflected in both requirements to enhance the capability to defend slight faults and to avoid tripping when the crowbar is disconnected after moderate faults are cleared. For those wind farms that cannot meet the adaptive fault ride through requirement, restrictions are put on the maximum power output. Simulation results show that the flexible fault ride through strategy increases the fault ride through capability of the wind farm clusters and reduces the wind power curtailment during faults.

Adaptive backstepping droop controller design for multi-terminal high-voltage direct current systems

Wind power is one of the most developed renewable energy resources worldwide. To integrate offshore wind farms to onshore grids, the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission cables interfaced with voltage source converters (VSCs) are considered to be a better solution than conventional approaches. Proper DC voltage indicates successive power transfer. To connect more than one onshore grid, the DC voltage droop control is one of the most popular methods to share the control burden between different terminals. However, the challenges are that small droop gains will cause voltage deviations, while higher droop gain settings will cause large oscillations. This study aims to enhance the performance of the traditional droop controller by considering the DC cable dynamics. Based on the backstepping control concept, DC cables are modelled with a series of capacitors and inductors. The final droop control law is deduced step-by-step from the original remote side. At each step the control error from the previous step is considered. Simulation results show that both the voltage deviations and oscillations can be effectively reduced using the proposed method. Further, power sharing between different terminals can be effectively simplified such that it correlates linearly with the droop gains, thus enabling simple yet accurate system operation and control.