Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.

Development of a Complex Intervention for Secondary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in Primary Care Using the UK Medical Research Council Framework

Objective: To apply the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) framework for development and evaluation of trials of complex interventions to a primary healthcare intervention to promote secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. Study Design: Case report of intervention development. Methods: First, literature relating to secondary prevention and lifestyle change was reviewed. Second, a preliminary intervention was modeled, based on literature findings and focus group interviews with patients (n = 23) and staff (n = 29) from 4 general practices. Participants’ experiences of and attitudes toward key intervention components were explored. Third, the preliminary intervention was pilot-tested in 4 general practices. After delivery of the pilot intervention, practitioners evaluated the training sessions, and qualitative data relating to experiences of the intervention were collected using semistructured interviews with staff (n = 10) and patient focus groups (n = 17). Results: Literature review identified 3 intervention components: a structured recall system, practitioner training, and patient information. Initial qualitative data identified variations in recall system design, training requirements (medication prescribing, facilitating behavior change), and information appropriate to the prospective study participants. Identifying detailed structures within intervention components clarified how the intervention could be tailored to individual practice, practitioner, and patient needs while preserving the theoretical functions of the components. Findings from the pilot phase informed further modeling of the intervention, reducing administrative time, increasing practical content of training, and omitting unhelpful patient information. Conclusion: Application of the MRC framework helped to determine the feasibility and development of a complex intervention for primary care research.

The SPHERE Study: Secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: protocol of a randomised controlled trial of tailored practice and patient care plans with parallel qualitative, economic and policy analyses. [ISRCTN24081411]

Background: The aim of the SPHERE study is to design, implement and evaluate tailored practice and personal care plans to improve the process of care and objective clinical outcomes for patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) in general practice across two different health systems on the island of Ireland.CHD is a common cause of death and a significant cause of morbidity in Ireland. Secondary prevention has been recommended as a key strategy for reducing levels of CHD mortality and general practice has been highlighted as an ideal setting for secondary prevention initiatives. Current indications suggest that there is considerable room for improvement in the provision of secondary prevention for patients with established heart disease on the island of Ireland. The review literature recommends structured programmes with continued support and follow-up of patients; the provision of training, tailored to practice needs of access to evidence of effectiveness of secondary prevention; structured recall programmes that also take account of individual practice needs; and patient-centred consultations accompanied by attention to disease management guidelines.

Methods: SPHERE is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with practice-level randomisation to intervention and control groups, recruiting 960 patients from 48 practices in three study centres (Belfast, Dublin and Galway). Primary outcomes are blood pressure, total cholesterol, physical and mental health status (SF-12) and hospital re-admissions. The intervention takes place over two years and data is collected at baseline, one-year and two-year follow-up. Data is obtained from medical charts, consultations with practitioners, and patient postal questionnaires. The SPHERE intervention involves the implementation of a structured systematic programme of care for patients with CHD attending general practice. It is a multi-faceted intervention that has been developed to respond to barriers and solutions to optimal secondary prevention identified in preliminary qualitative research with practitioners and patients. General practitioners and practice nurses attend training sessions in facilitating behaviour change and medication prescribing guidelines for secondary prevention of CHD. Patients are invited to attend regular four-monthly consultations over two years, during which targets and goals for secondary prevention are set and reviewed. The analysis will be strengthened by economic, policy and qualitative components.

Lack of MEF2A Δ7aa mutation in Irish families with early onset ischaemic heart disease, a family based study

Background: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is a complex disease due to the combination of environmental and genetic factors. Mutations in the MEF2A gene have recently been reported in patients with IHD. In particular, a 21 base pair deletion (Δ7aa) in the MEF2A gene was identified in a family with an autosomal dominant pattern of inheritance of IHD. We investigated this region of the MEF2A gene using an Irish family-based study, where affected individuals had early-onset IHD. Methods: A total of 1494 individuals from 580 families were included (800 discordant sib-pairs and 64 parent-child trios). The Δ7aa region of the MEF2A gene was investigated based on amplicon size. Results: The Δ7aa mutation was not detected in any individual. Variation in the number of CAG (glutamate) and CCG (proline) residues was detected in a nearby region. However, this was not found to be associated with IHD. Conclusion: The Δ7aa mutation was not detected in any individual within the study population and is unlikely to play a significant role in the development of IHD in Ireland. Using family-based tests of association the number of tri-nucleotide repeats in a nearby region of the MEF2A gene was not associated with IHD in our study group. © 2006 Horan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Do Total and High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Triglycerides Act Independently in the Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease? Ten-Year Follow-Up of Caerphilly and Speedwell Cohorts

Several studies have suggested that men with raised plasma triglycerides (TGs) in combination with adverse levels of other lipids may be at special risk of subsequent ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined the independent and combined effects of plasma lipids at 10 years of follow-up. We measured fasting TGs, total cholesterol (TC), and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) in 4362 men (aged 45 to 63 years) from 2 study populations and reexamined them at intervals during a 10-year follow-up. Major IHD events (death from IHD, clinical myocardial infarction, or ECG-defined myocardial infarction) were recorded. Five hundred thirty-three major IHD events occurred. All 3 lipids were strongly and independently predictive of IHD after 10 years of follow-up. Subjects were then divided into 27 groups (ie, 33) by the tertiles of TGs, TC, and HDLC. The number of events observed in each group was compared with that predicted by a logistic regression model, which included terms for the 3 lipids (without interactions) and potential confounding variables. The incidence of IHD was 22.6% in the group with the lipid risk factor combination with the highest expected risk (high TGs, high TC, and low HDLC) and 4.7% in the group with the lowest expected risk (P