Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g. Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Climate Change Adaptation for Conservation in Madagascar

Madagascar's imperilled biota are now experiencing the effects of a new threat—climate change (Raxworthy et al. 2008). With more than 90% endemism among plants, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, the stakes are high. The pristine landscapes that allowed this exceptional biodiversity to survive past climate changes are largely gone. Deforestation has claimed approximately 90% of the island's natural forest (Ingram & Dawson 2005; Harper et al. 2007) and what remains is highly fragmented, providing a poor template for large-scale species range shifts. The impacts of current and future climate change may therefore be much different than past impacts, with profound implications for biodiversity.
We review evidence of past response to climate change, models of future change and projected biological response, developing insights to formulate adaptation actions for reducing extinction in Madagascar's biota. We then explore the cost of implementing actions and examine new income opportunities developing through efforts to mitigate climate change.

A commentary on climate change, stone decay dynamics and the ‘greening’ of natural stone buildings: new perspectives on ‘deep wetting’

Environmental controls on stone decay processes are rapidly changing as a result of changing climate. UKCP09 projections for the 2020s (2010–2039) indicate that over much of the UK seasonality of precipitation will increase. Summer dryness and winter wetness are both set to increase, the latter linked to projected precipitation increases in autumn and spring months. If so, this could increase the time that stone structures remain wet and possibly the depth of moisture penetration, and it appears that building stone in Northern Ireland has already responded through an increased incidence of algal ‘greening’.This paper highlights the need for understanding the effects of climate change through a series of studies of largely sandstone structures. Current and projected climatic trends are therefore considered to have aesthetic, physical and chemical implications that are not currently built into our models of sandstone decay, especially with respect to the role played by deep-seated wetness on sandstone deterioration and decay progression and the feedbacks associated with, for example surface algal growth. In particular,it is proposed that algal biofilms will aid moisture retention and further facilitate moisture and dissolved salt penetration to depth. Thus, whilst the outer surface of stone may continue to experience frequent wetting and drying associated with individual precipitation events, the latter is less likely to be complete, and the interiors of building blocks may only experience wetting/drying in response to seasonal cycling. A possible consequence of deeper salt penetration could be a delay in the onset of surface deterioration,but more rapid and effective retreat once it commences as decay mechanisms ‘tap into a reservoir of deep salt’.

Indicators of the impact of climate change on migratory species

The Bonn Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals adopted a Resolution in 2005 recognising the impacts of climate change on migratory species. It called on Contracting Parties to undertake more research to improve our understanding of these impacts and to implement adaptation measures to reduce foreseeable adverse effects. Given the large diversity of taxa and species affected by climate change, it is impossible to monitor all species and effects thereof. However, it is likely that many of the key ecological and physical processes through which climate change may impact wildlife could be monitored using a suite of indicators, each comprising parameters of species/populations or groups of species as proxies for wider assemblages, habitats and ecosystems. Herein, we identify a suite of 17 indicators whose attributes could reveal negative impacts of climate change on the global status of migratory species: 4 for birds, 4 for marine mammals, 2 for sea turtles, 1 for fish, 3 for land mammals and 3 for bats. A few of these indicators would be relatively straightforward to develop, but most would require additional data collation, and in many cases methodological development. Choosing and developing indicators of the impacts of climate change on migratory species is a challenge, particularly with endangered species, which are subject to many other pressures. To identify and implement conservation measures for these species, indicators must account for the full ensemble of pressures, and link to a system of alerts and triggers for action.

Climate change-linked range expansion of Nathusius' pipistrelle bat, Pipistrellus nathusii (Keyserling & Blasius, 1839)

Aim To examine the effect of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of Pipistrellus nathusii (Nathusius' pipistrelle) in the United Kingdom (UK).Location We modelled habitat and climatic associations of P. nathusii in the UK and applied this model to the species' historical range in continental Europe.Methods A binomial logistic regression model was constructed relating the occurrence of P. nathusii to climate and habitat characteristics using historical species occurrence records (1940-2006) and CORINE land cover data. This model was applied to historical and projected climate data to examine changes in suitable range (1940-2080) of this species. We tested the predictive ability of the model with known records in the UK after 2006 and applied the model to the species' known range in Europe.Results The distribution of P. nathusii was related positively to the area of water bodies, woodland and small areas of urbanization, and negatively related to the area of peat/heathland. Species records were associated with higher minimum temperatures, low seasonal variation in temperature and intermediate rainfall. We found that suitable areas have existed in the UK since the 1940s and that these have expanded. The model had high predictive power when applied to new records after 2006, with a correct classification rate of 70%, estimated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Based on climate projections, our model suggests a potential twofold increase in the area suitable for P. nathusii in the UK by 2050. The single most influential climate variable contributing to range increase was the projected increase in minimum temperature. When applied to Europe, the model predictions had best predictive capability of known records in western areas of the species' range, where P. nathusii is present during the winter.Main conclusions We show that a mobile, migratory species has adapted its range in response to recent climate change on a continental scale. We believe this may be the first study to demonstrate a case of range change linked to contemporary climate change in a mammal species in Europe.