Prediction of Transonic LCOs using an Aeroelastic Harmonic Balance Method

This work proposes a novel approach to compute transonic Lim
it Cycle Oscillations using high fidelity analysis. CFD based Harmonic Balance methods have proven to be efficient tools to predict periodic phenomena. This paper’s contribution is to present a new methodology to determine the unknown frequency of oscillations, enabling HB methods to accurately capture Limit Cycle Oscillations (LCOs); this is achieved by defining a frequency updating procedure based on a coupled CFD/CSD Harmonic Balance formulation to find the LCO condition. A pitch/plunge aerofoil and delta wing aerodynamic and respective linear structural models are used to validate the new method against conventional time-domain simulations. Results show consistent agreement between the proposed and time-marching methods for both LCO amplitude and frequency, while producing at least one order of magnitude reduction in computational time.

Prediction of Limit Cycle Oscillations Using an Implicit Aeroelastic-Harmonic Balance Method

This work proposes a extends a novel approach to compute tran sonic Limit Cycle Oscillations using high fidelity analysis. CFD based Harmonic Balance methods have proven to be efficient tools to predict periodic phenomena. This paper’s contribution is to present a methodology to determine the unknown frequency of oscillations using an implicit for- mulation of the HB method to accurately capture Limit Cycle Oscillations (LCOs); this is achieved by defining a frequency updating procedure based on a coupled CFD/CSD Harmonic Balance formulation to find the LCO condition. A pitch/plunge aerofoil and respective linear structural models is used to exercise the new method. Results show consistent agreement between the proposed and time-marching methods for both LCO amplitude and frequency.

STOPP/START criteria for potentially inappropriate prescribing in older people: version 2

PURPOSE: screening tool of older people's prescriptions (STOPP) and screening tool to alert to right treatment (START) criteria were first published in 2008. Due to an expanding therapeutics evidence base, updating of the criteria was required.

METHODS: we reviewed the 2008 STOPP/START criteria to add new evidence-based criteria and remove any obsolete criteria. A thorough literature review was performed to reassess the evidence base of the 2008 criteria and the proposed new criteria. Nineteen experts from 13 European countries reviewed a new draft of STOPP & START criteria including proposed new criteria. These experts were also asked to propose additional criteria they considered important to include in the revised STOPP & START criteria and to highlight any criteria from the 2008 list they considered less important or lacking an evidence base. The revised list of criteria was then validated using the Delphi consensus methodology.

RESULTS: the expert panel agreed a final list of 114 criteria after two Delphi validation rounds, i.e. 80 STOPP criteria and 34 START criteria. This represents an overall 31% increase in STOPP/START criteria compared with version 1. Several new STOPP categories were created in version 2, namely antiplatelet/anticoagulant drugs, drugs affecting, or affected by, renal function and drugs that increase anticholinergic burden; new START categories include urogenital system drugs, analgesics and vaccines.

CONCLUSION: STOPP/START version 2 criteria have been expanded and updated for the purpose of minimizing inappropriate prescribing in older people. These criteria are based on an up-to-date literature review and consensus validation among a European panel of experts.

State of the art in research into the risk of low dose radiation exposure-findings of the fourth MELODI workshop

The fourth workshop of the Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative (MELODI) was organised by STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority of Finland. It took place from 12 to 14 September 2012 in Helsinki, Finland. The meeting was attended by 179 scientists and professionals engaged in radiation research and radiation protection. We summarise the major scientific findings of the workshop and the recommendations for updating the MELODI Strategic Research Agenda and Road Map for future low dose research activities.

Promoting normality in the management of the perineum during the second stage of labour

The management of the perineum during birth has multiple long-term effects on women and their families. The midwife has a key role to play and often the techniques they employ vary significantly, as does their justification of these practices. This article seeks to examine current evidence to explore what is known to contribute to lower perineal trauma rates and what practices should be avoided to protect childbearing women. The conclusions drawn show that the updating of
practice and antenatal education may be required so that woman are given the information they need to make an informed choice as to what they want for their own body, child and experience.

Generalized loopy 2U: A new algorithm for approximate inference in credal networks

Credal networks generalize Bayesian networks by relaxing the requirement of precision of probabilities. Credal networks are considerably more expressive than Bayesian networks, but this makes belief updating NP-hard even on polytrees. We develop a new efficient algorithm for approximate belief updating in credal networks. The algorithm is based on an important representation result we prove for general credal networks: that any credal network can be equivalently reformulated as a credal network with binary variables; moreover, the transformation, which is considerably more complex than in the Bayesian case, can be implemented in polynomial time. The equivalent binary credal network is then updated by L2U, a loopy approximate algorithm for binary credal networks. Overall, we generalize L2U to non-binary credal networks, obtaining a scalable algorithm for the general case, which is approximate only because of its loopy nature. The accuracy of the inferences with respect to other state-of-the-art algorithms is evaluated by extensive numerical tests.

Generalized Loopy 2U: A New Algorithm for Approximate Inference in Credal Networks

Credal nets generalize Bayesian nets by relaxing the requirement of precision of probabilities. Credal nets are considerably more expressive than Bayesian nets, but this makes belief updating NP-hard even on polytrees. We develop a new efficient algorithm for approximate belief updating in credal nets. The algorithm is based on an important representation result we prove for general credal nets: that any credal net can be equivalently reformulated as a credal net with binary variables; moreover, the transformation, which is considerably more complex than in the Bayesian case, can be implemented in polynomial time. The equivalent binary credal net is updated by L2U, a loopy approximate algorithm for binary credal nets. Thus, we generalize L2U to non-binary credal nets, obtaining an accurate and scalable algorithm for the general case, which is approximate only because of its loopy nature. The accuracy of the inferences is evaluated by empirical tests.

Prediction of Transonic Limit-Cycle Oscillations Using an Aeroelastic Harmonic Balance Method

This work proposes a novel approach to compute transonic limit-cycle oscillations using high-fidelity analysis. Computational-Fluid-Dynamics based harmonic balance methods have proven to be efficient tools to predict periodic phenomena. This paper’s contribution is to present a new methodology to determine the unknown frequency of oscillations, enabling harmonic balance methods to accurately capture limit-cycle oscillations; this is achieved by defining a frequency-updating procedure based on a coupled computational-fluid-dynamics/computational-structural-dynamics harmonic balance formulation to find the limit-cycle oscillation condition. A pitch/plunge airfoil and delta wing aerodynamic and respective linear structural models are used to validate the new method against conventional time-domain simulations. Results show consistent agreement between the proposed and time-marching methods for both limit-cycle oscillation amplitude and frequency while producing at least a one-order-of-magnitude reduction in computational time.

The Complete Works of John Milton: Volume III: The Shorter Poems (826pp.)

Stephen B. Dobranski, Milton Quarterly 49.3 (October, 2015), 181-4:

'By addressing classical and neo-Latin works with which Milton's poems appear to engage, Haan has pursued something unattempted yet. Her erudite and engaging commentary on the Poemata is the most extensive and impressive that I have encountered in any edition ... Haan's discussion of Milton's Poemata - including the Testimonia, the one Italian and four Latin encomia by the poet's acquaintances published in 1645 and 1673 - is remarkably detailed and well-researched. In these sections, readers learn, for example, how Milton's Epitaphium Damonis borrows from both classical writers (Theocritus, Moschus) and contemporary models (Castiglione, Zanchi) while transcending all of them through a pattern of resurrection motifs. Or, readers can discover affinities between Milton's lament on the death of the Bishop of Ely and a poem by the Italian humanist Hieronymo Aleander, Jr., or learn about the connections between Milton's Elegia Quinta and George Buchanan's Maiae Calendae ... The Shorter Poems is a scholarly achievement of the highest order.'

Noam Reisner, Review of English Studies 65 (2014), 744-5:
‘Haan shines with her Neo-Latinist expertise by offering a vivid separate introduction to the Latin poems, which sets up Milton’s poemata specifically within the Neo-Latin contexts of the seventeenth century, thereby dispelling any remaining view of these poems as juvenilia (a view which results from reading the poems chronologically). … The present volume will instantly establish itself as the definitive resource for any reader interested in Milton’s shorter poems, and it is scarcely imaginable that it will ever be eclipsed or be in need of replacing. Its contribution is important in all areas, especially in providing for the first time in a single volume truly valuable documents which can teach us a lot more about Milton’s poetic development than simply reading the poems in chronological sequence. But perhaps, this edition’s greatest achievement is the way in which it succeeds in giving Milton’s Latin poems the pride of place they have long deserved as fully integral to Milton’s complete poetic imagination. Haan’s specific achievement in this regard is less in updating the translations than in providing a different context through which to look at the Latin poems themselves. Haan’s detailed commentaries set the Latin poems in a completely fresh light which looks beyond the obvious classical references and allusions, noted by Carey and many other editors, to Milton’s complex engagement with the Neo-Latin literary culture of his time. It is this aspect of the volume, more than anything else, which vindicates its essentialness.'

Reducing Parametric Uncertainty in Limit Cycle Oscillations

The assimilation of discrete higher fidelity data points with model predictions can be used to achieve a reduction in the uncertainty of the model input parameters which generate accurate predictions. The problem investigated here involves the prediction of limit-cycle oscillations using a High-Dimensional Harmonic Balance method (HDHB). The efficiency of the HDHB method is exploited to enable calibration of structural input parameters using a Bayesian inference technique. Markov-chain Monte Carlo is employed to sample the posterior distributions. Parameter estimation is carried out on both a pitch/plunge aerofoil and Goland wing configuration. In both cases significant refinement was achieved in the distribution of possible structural parameters allowing better predictions of their
true deterministic values.

Local Conventions in Game Play in an Evolving Dual Social Network Framework

People usually perform economic interactions within the social setting of a small group, while they obtain relevant information from a broader source. We capture this feature with a dynamic interaction model based on two separate social networks. Individuals play a coordination game in an interaction network, while updating their strategies using information from a separate influence network through which information is disseminated. In each time period, the interaction and influence networks co-evolve, and the individuals’ strategies are updated through a modified naive learning process. We show that both network structures and players’ strategies always reach a steady state, in which players form fully connected groups and converge to local conventions. We also analyze the influence exerted by a minority group of strongly opinionated players on these outcomes.

Role of early visual cortex in trans-saccadic memory of object features

Early visual cortex (EVC) participates in visual feature memory and the updating of remembered locations across saccades, but its role in the trans-saccadic integration of object features is unknown. We hypothesized that if EVC is involved in updating object features relative to gaze, feature memory should be disrupted when saccades remap an object representation into a simultaneously perturbed EVC site. To test this, we applied transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) over functional magnetic resonance imaging-localized EVC clusters corresponding to the bottom left/right visual quadrants (VQs). During experiments, these VQs were probed psychophysically by briefly presenting a central object (Gabor patch) while subjects fixated gaze to the right or left (and above). After a short memory interval, participants were required to detect the relative change in orientation of a re-presented test object at the same spatial location. Participants either sustained fixation during the memory interval (fixation task) or made a horizontal saccade that either maintained or reversed the VQ of the object (saccade task). Three TMS pulses (coinciding with the pre-, peri-, and postsaccade intervals) were applied to the left or right EVC. This had no effect when (a) fixation was maintained, (b) saccades kept the object in the same VQ, or (c) the EVC quadrant corresponding to the first object was stimulated. However, as predicted, TMS reduced performance when saccades (especially larger saccades) crossed the remembered object location and brought it into the VQ corresponding to the TMS site. This suppression effect was statistically significant for leftward saccades and followed a weaker trend for rightward saccades. These causal results are consistent with the idea that EVC is involved in the gaze-centered updating of object features for trans-saccadic memory and perception.

Homogenization and analysis of an expanded long-term monthly rainfall network for the Island of Ireland (1850–2010)

Long-term precipitation series are critical for understanding emerging changes to the hydrological cycle. To this end we construct a homogenized Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network comprising 25 stations and a composite series covering the period 1850–2010, providing the second-longest regional precipitation archive in the British-Irish Isles. We expand the existing catalogue of long-term precipitation records for the island by recovering archived data for an additional eight stations. Following bridging and updating of stations HOMogenisation softwarE in R (HOMER) homogenization software is used to detect breaks using pairwise and joint detection. A total of 25 breakpoints are detected across 14 stations, and the majority (20) are corroborated by metadata. Assessment of variability and change in homogenized and extended precipitation records reveal positive (winter) and negative (summer) trends. Trends in records covering the typical period of digitization (1941 onwards) are not always representative of longer records. Furthermore, trends in post-homogenization series change magnitude and even direction at some stations. While cautionary flags are raised for some series, confidence in the derived network is high given attention paid to metadata, coherence of behaviour across the network and consistency of findings with other long-term climatic series such as England and Wales precipitation. As far as we are aware, this work represents the first application of HOMER to a long-term precipitation network and bodes well for use in other regions. It is expected that the homogenized IIP network will find wider utility in benchmarking and supporting climate services across the Island of Ireland, a sentinel location in the North Atlantic.

Approximating Credal Network Inferences by Linear Programming

An algorithm for approximate credal network updating is presented. The problem in its general formulation is a multilinear optimization task, which can be linearized by an appropriate rule for fixing all the local models apart from those of a single variable. This simple idea can be iterated and quickly leads to very accurate inferences. The approach can also be specialized to classification with credal networks based on the maximality criterion. A complexity analysis for both the problem and the algorithm is reported together with numerical experiments, which confirm the good performance of the method. While the inner approximation produced by the algorithm gives rise to a classifier which might return a subset of the optimal class set, preliminary empirical results suggest that the accuracy of the optimal class set is seldom affected by the approximate probabilities

Visual morbidity due to inaccurate spectacles among school children in rural China: the See Well to Learn Well Project, report 1.

PURPOSE: Inadequately corrected refractive error is the leading cause of visual disability among children in China; inaccurate spectacles are a potential cause. The prevalence and visual impact of spectacle inaccuracy were studied among rural, secondary-school children, to determine the optimal timing for updating of refraction. METHODS: A random sample of children from years 1 and 2 in all junior and senior high schools in Fuyang Township, Guangdong Province, underwent ocular examination. All children who reported wearing glasses received cycloplegic refraction, vision assessment, and measurement of current spectacles. RESULTS: Among 3226 examined children, 733 (22.7%) reported owning spectacles. Refractive error and spectacle power were assessed for 588 (80.2%) children. They had a mean age of 15.0 +/- 1.6 years; 70.2% were girls, 83.3% had more than -1.5 D of myopia, and 17.9% had presenting vision < or = 6/12 in the better eye. The glasses of 48.8% of children were inaccurate by > or = 1 D; inaccuracy was > or = 2 D in 17.7%. Children with inaccurate glasses (> or = 1 D) had presenting vision in the better eye significantly (P < 0.001) worse than that of children with accurate glasses, and 30.3% had presenting acuity < or = 6/12. In multivariate models, younger age (P = 0.004), more myopic refractive error (P < 0.001), and having glasses > or = 1 year old (P = 0.04) were associated with inaccurate spectacles. DISCUSSION: Inaccurate spectacles are common and are associated with significant visual impairment among children in rural China. Reducing outdated glasses could lessen the visual burden, although refractive services may have to be offered on an annual basis for optimal benefit.