Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

Blood: Tests used to assess the physiological and immunological properties of blood.

The properties of blood and the relative ease of access to which it can be retrieved make it an ideal source to gauge different aspects of homeostasis within an individual, form an accurate diagnosis, and formulate an appropriate treatment regime. Tests used to determine blood parameters such as the erythrocyte sedimentation rate, hemoglobin concentration, hematocrit, bleeding and clotting times, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, mean cell volume, and determination of blood groups are routinely used clinically, and deviations outside the normal range can indicate a range of conditions such as anemia, pregnancy, dehydration, overhydration, infectious disease, cancer, thyroid disease, and autoimmune conditions, to mention a few. As these tests can be performed relatively inexpensively and do not require high levels of technical expertise, they are ideally suited for use in the teaching laboratory, enabling undergraduate students to link theory to practice. The practicals described here permit students to examine their own blood and that of their peers and compare these with clinically accepted normal ranges. At the end of the practicals, students are required to answer a number of questions about their findings and to link abnormal values to possible pathological conditions by answering a series of questions based on their findings.

The effectiveness of disaster risk communication: a systematic review of intervention studies

INTRODUCTION: A disaster is a serious disruption to the functioning of a community that exceeds its capacity to cope within its own resources. Risk communication in disasters aims to prevent and mitigate harm from disasters, prepare the population before a disaster, disseminate information during disasters and aid subsequent recovery. The aim of this systematic review is to identify, appraise and synthesise the findings of studies of the effects of risk communication interventions during four stages of the disaster cycle.

METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycInfo, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science and grey literature sources for randomised trials, cluster randomised trials, controlled and uncontrolled before and after studies, interrupted time series studies and qualitative studies of any method of disaster risk communication to at-risk populations. Outcome criteria were disaster-related knowledge and behaviour, and health outcomes.

RESULTS: Searches yielded 5,224 unique articles, of which 100 were judged to be potentially relevant. Twenty-five studies met the inclusion criteria, and two additional studies were identified from other searching. The studies evaluated interventions in all four stages of the disaster cycle, included a variety of man-made, natural and infectious disease disasters, and were conducted in many disparate settings. Only one randomised trial and one cluster randomised trial were identified, with less robust designs used in the other studies. Several studies reported improvements in disaster-related knowledge and behaviour.

DISCUSSION: We identified and appraised intervention studies of disaster risk communication and present an overview of the contemporary literature. Most studies used non-randomised designs that make interpretation challenging. We do not make specific recommendations for practice but highlight the need for high-quality randomised trials and appropriately-analysed cluster randomised trials in the field of disaster risk communication where these can be conducted within an appropriate research ethics framework.

The Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children Project: A Neonatal and Pediatric Antimicrobial Web-based Point Prevalence Survey in 73 Hospitals Worldwide

BACKGROUND: The neonatal and pediatric antimicrobial point prevalence survey (PPS) of the Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children project (http://www.arpecproject.eu/) aims to standardize a method for surveillance of antimicrobial use in children and neonates admitted to the hospital within Europe. This article describes the audit criteria used and reports overall country-specific proportions of antimicrobial use. An analytical review presents methodologies on antimicrobial use.

METHODS: A 1-day PPS on antimicrobial use in hospitalized children was organized in September 2011, using a previously validated and standardized method. The survey included all inpatient pediatric and neonatal beds and identified all children receiving an antimicrobial treatment on the day of survey. Mandatory data were age, gender, (birth) weight, underlying diagnosis, antimicrobial agent, dose and indication for treatment. Data were entered through a web-based system for data-entry and reporting, based on the WebPPS program developed for the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption project.

RESULTS: There were 2760 and 1565 pediatric versus 1154 and 589 neonatal inpatients reported among 50 European (n = 14 countries) and 23 non-European hospitals (n = 9 countries), respectively. Overall, antibiotic pediatric and neonatal use was significantly higher in non-European (43.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 41.3-46.3% and 39.4%; 95% CI: 35.5-43.4%) compared with that in European hospitals (35.4; 95% CI: 33.6-37.2% and 21.8%; 95% CI: 19.4-24.2%). Proportions of antibiotic use were highest in hematology/oncology wards (61.3%; 95% CI: 56.2-66.4%) and pediatric intensive care units (55.8%; 95% CI: 50.3-61.3%).

CONCLUSIONS: An Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children standardized web-based method for a 1-day PPS was successfully developed and conducted in 73 hospitals worldwide. It offers a simple, feasible and sustainable way of data collection that can be used globally.

Individual trade-offs between nutrition and risk of interspecific transmission of disease by grazing: cows, badger latrines and bovine tuberculosis

1. We examine whether various measures of herbivore current physiological state (age, breeding and immune status) and genetic potential can be used as indicators of exposure to and risk from disease. We use dairy cattle and the risks of tuberculosis (TB) transmission posed to them by pasture contaminated with badger excreta (via the fecal-oral route) as a model system to address our aim.

Risk of disease from wildlife reservoirs: Badgers, cattle, and bovine tuberculosis

Livestock face complex foraging options associated with optimizing nutrient intake while being able to avoid areas posing risk of parasites or disease. Areas of tall nutrient-rich swards around fecal deposits may be attractive for grazing, but might incur fitness costs from parasites. We use the example of dairy cattle and the risks of tuberculosis transmission posed to them by pastures contaminated with badger excreta to examine this trade-off. A risk may be posed either by aerosolized inhalation through investigation or by ingestion via grazing contaminated swards. We quantified the levels of investigation and grazing of 150 dairy cows at badger latrines (accumulations of feces and urine) and crossing points (urination-only sites). Grazing behavior was compared between strip-grazed and rotation-grazed fields. Strip grazing had fields subdivided for grazing periods of

Foot-and-mouth disease virus, but not bovine enterovirus, targets the host cell cytoskeleton via the nonstructural protein 3Cpro.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), a member of the Picornaviridae, is a pathogen of cloven-hoofed animals and causes a disease of major economic importance. Picornavirus-infected cells show changes in cell morphology and rearrangement of cytoplasmic membranes, which are a consequence of virus replication. We show here, by confocal immunofluorescence and electron microscopy, that the changes in morphology of FMDV-infected cells involve changes in the distribution of microtubule and intermediate filament components during infection. Despite the continued presence of centrosomes in infected cells, there is a loss of tethering of microtubules to the microtubule organizing center (MTOC) region. Loss of labeling for -tubulin, but not pericentrin, from the MTOC suggests a targeting of -tubulin (or associated proteins) rather than a total breakdown in MTOC structure. The identity of the FMDV protein(s) responsible was determined by the expression of individual viral nonstructural proteins and their precursors in uninfected cells. We report that the only viral nonstructural protein able to reproduce the loss of -tubulin from the MTOC and the loss of integrity of the microtubule system is FMDV 3Cpro. In contrast, infection of cells with another picornavirus, bovine enterovirus, did not affect -tubulin distribution, and the microtubule network remained relatively unaffected.

Detectability of bovine TB using the tuberculin skin test does not vary significantly according to pathogen genotype within Northern Ireland

Strains of many infectious diseases differ in parameters that influence epidemic spread, for example virulence, transmissibility, detectability and host specificity. Knowledge of inter-strain variation can be exploited to improve management and decrease disease incidence. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is increasingly prevalent among farmed cattle in the UK, exerting a heavy economic burden on the farming industry and government. We aimed to determine whether strains of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bTB) identified and classified using genetic markers (spoligotyping and multi-locus VNTR analysis) varied in response to the tuberculin skin test; this being the primary method of bTB detection used in the UK. Inter-strain variation in detectability of M. bovis could have important implications for disease control. The skin test is based on a differential delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) response to intradermal injections of purified protein derivative (PPD) from M. bovis (PPD-B) and Mycobacterium avium (PPD-A). We searched for an association between skin test response (PPD-B skin rise minus PPD-A skin rise) and M. bovis genotype at the disclosing test in culture-confirmed cases using a field dataset consisting of 21,000 isolates belonging to 63 genotypes of M. bovis from cattle in Northern Ireland. We found no substantial variation among genotypes (estimated responses clustered tightly around the mean) controlling for animal sex, breed and test effects. We also estimated the ratio of skin test detected to undetected cases (i.e. cases only detected at abattoir). The skin test detection ratio varied among abattoirs with some detecting a greater proportion of cases than others but this variation was unrelated to the community composition of genotypes within each abattoir catchment. These two lines of evidence indicate that M. bovis genotypes in Northern Ireland have similar detectability using the skin test.