Survival for oesophageal, stomach and small intestine cancers in Europe 1999-2007: Results from EUROCARE-5

Background: European regional variation in cancer survival was reported in the EUROCARE-4 study for patients diagnosed in 1995-1999. Relative survival (RS) estimates are here updated for patients diagnosed with cancer of the oesophagus, stomach and small intestine from 2000 to 2007. Trends in RS from 1999-2001 to 2005-2007 are presented to monitor and discuss improvements in patient survival in Europe. Materials and methods: EUROCARE-5 data from 29 countries (87 cancer registries) were used to investigate 1- and 5-year RS. Using registry-specific life-tables stratified by age, gender and calendar year, age-standardised 'complete analysis' RS estimates by country and region were calculated for Northern, Southern, Eastern and Central Europe, and for Ireland and United Kingdom (UK). Survival trends of patients in periods 1999-2001, 2002-2004 and 2005-2007 were investigated using the 'period' RS approach. We computed the 5-year RS conditional on surviving the first year (5-year conditional survival), as the ratio of age-standardised 5-year RS to 1-year RS. Results Oesophageal cancer 1- and 5-year RS (40% and 12%, respectively) remained poor in Europe. Patient survival was worst in Eastern (8%), Northern (11%) and Southern Europe (10%). Europe-wide, there was a 3% improvement in oesophageal cancer 5-year survival by 2005-2007, with Ireland and the UK (3%), and Central Europe (4%) showing large improvements. Europe-wide, stomach cancer 5-year RS was 25%. Ireland and UK (17%) and Eastern Europe (19%) had the poorest 5-year patient survival. Southern Europe had the best 5-year survival (30%), though only showing an improvement of 2% by 2005-2007. Small intestine cancer 5-year RS for Europe was 48%, with Central Europe having the best (54%), and Ireland and UK the poorest (37%). Five-year patient survival improvement for Europe was 8% by 2005-2007, with Central, Southern and Eastern Europe showing the greatest increases (≥9%). Conclusions Survival for these cancer sites, particularly oesophageal cancer, remains poor in Europe with wide variation. Further investigation into the wide variation, including analysis by histology and anatomical sub-site, will yield insights to better monitor and explain the improvements in survival observed over time.

Metformin use and survival after colorectal cancer: A population-based cohort study.

Preclinical evidence suggests that metformin could delay cancer progression. Previous epidemiological studies however have been limited by small sample sizes and certain time-related biases. This study aimed to investigate whether colorectal cancer patients with type 2 diabetes who were exposed to metformin had reduced cancer-specific mortality. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1,197 colorectal cancer patients newly diagnosed from 1998 to 2009 (identified from English cancer registries) with type 2 diabetes (based upon Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD, prescription and diagnosis records). In this cohort 382 colorectal cancer-specific deaths occurred up to 2012 from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) mortality data. Metformin use was identified from CPRD prescription records. Using time-dependent Cox regression models, unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were calculated for the association between post-diagnostic exposure to metformin and colorectal cancer-specific mortality. Overall, there was no evidence of an association between metformin use and cancer-specific death before or after adjustment for potential confounders (adjusted HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.80, 1.40). In addition, after adjustment for confounders, there was also no evidence of associations between other diabetic medications and cancer-specific mortality including sulfonylureas (HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.86, 1.51), insulin use (HR 1.35, 95% CI 0.95, 1.93) or other anti-diabetic medications including thiazolidinediones (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.46, 1.14). Similar associations were observed by duration of use and for all-cause mortality. This population-based study, the largest to date, does not support a protective association between metformin and survival in colorectal cancer patients.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control.

METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights.

FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease.

INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems.

Genetic variants of kinase suppressors of Ras (KSR1) to predict survival in patients with ERα-positive advanced breast cancer

In patients with breast cancer (BC), deregulation of estrogen receptor (ERα) activity may account for most resistance to endocrine therapies. Our previous study used a whole-human kinome siRNA screen to identify functional actors in ERα modulation and showed the implication of proteins kinase suppressors of ras (KSR1). From those findings we evaluated the clinical impact of KSR1 variants in patients with ERα+ BC treated with TAM. DNA was obtained from 222 patients with advanced ERα+ BC treated with TAM who had undergone surgery from 1981 to 2003. We selected three potentially functional relevant KSR1 polymorphisms; two within the 3'UTR (rs224190, rs1075952) and one in the coding exon 7 (rs2293180). The primary end points were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). After a 6.4-year median follow-up, patients carrying the rs2241906 TT genotype showed shorter DFS (2.1 vs 7.1 years, P=0.005) and OS (2.6 vs 8.4 years P=0.002) than those with the TC or TT genotypes. Those associations remained significant in the multivariable analysis adjusting age, lymph node status, LMTK3 and IGFR variants and HER2 status. The polymorphisms rs2241906 and rs1075952 were in linkage disequilibrium. No association was shown between rs2293180 and survival. Among the actors of ERα signaling, KSR1 rs2241906 variants may predict survival in patients with advanced ERα+ BC treated with adjuvant TAM.

Influence of sex on the survival of patients with esophageal cancer

PURPOSE: The prognostic value of sex for esophageal cancer survival is currently unclear, and growing data suggest that hormonal influences may account for incidence disparities between men and women. Therefore, moving from the hypothesis that hormones could affect the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer, we investigated the primary hypothesis that sex is associated with survival and the secondary hypotheses that the relationship between sex and survival depends, at least in part, on age, histology, and race/ethnicity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: By using the SEER databases from 1973 to 2007, we identified 13,603 patients (34%) with metastatic esophageal cancer (MEC) and 26,848 patients (66%) with locoregional esophageal cancer (LEC). Cox proportional hazards model for competing risks were used for analyses.

RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, women had longer esophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) than men in both MEC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.949; 95% CI, 0.905 to 0.995; P = .029) and LEC (HR, 0.920; 95% CI, 0.886 to 0.955; P < .001) cohorts. When age and histology were accounted for, there was no difference for ECSS between men and women with adenocarcinoma. In contrast, women younger than age 55 years (HR, 0.896; 95% CI, 0.792 to 1.014; P = .081) and those age 55 years or older (HR, 0.905; 95% CI, 0.862 to 0.950; P < .001) with squamous cell LEC had longer ECSS than men. In the squamous cell MEC cohort, only women younger than age 55 years had longer ECSS (HR, 0.823; 95% CI, 0.708 to 0.957; P = .011) than men.

CONCLUSION: Sex is an independent prognostic factor for patients with LEC or MEC. As secondary hypotheses, in comparison with men, women age 55 years or older with squamous cell LEC and women younger than age 55 years with squamous cell MEC have a significantly better outcome. These last two findings need further validation.

Low-dose aspirin and survival from lung cancer: a population-based cohort study

Background
Preclinical evidence suggests that aspirin may inhibit lung cancer progression. In a large cohort of lung cancer patients, we investigated whether low-dose aspirin use was associated with a reduction in the risk of lung cancer-specific mortality.

Methods
We identified lung cancer patients from English cancer registries diagnosed between 1998 to 2009 from the National Cancer Data Repository. Medication usage was obtained from linkages to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and lung cancer-specific deaths were identified from Office of National Statistics mortality data. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the association between low-dose aspirin use (before and after diagnosis) and risk of lung cancer-specific mortality were calculated using Cox regression models.

Results
A total of 14,735 lung cancer patients were identified during the study period. In analysis of 3,635 lung cancer patients, there was no suggestion of an association between low-dose aspirin use after diagnosis and cancer-specific mortality (adjusted HR = 0.96, 95 % CI: 0.85, 1.09). Similarly, no association was evident for low-dose aspirin use before diagnosis and cancer-specific mortality (adjusted HR = 1.00, 95 % CI: 0.95, 1.05). Associations were comparable by duration of use and for all-cause mortality.

Conclusion
Overall, we found little evidence of a protective association between low-dose aspirin use and cancer-specific mortality in a large population-based lung cancer cohort.

Impact of fractionation on out-of-field survival and DNA damage responses following exposure to intensity modulated radiation fields

To limit toxicity to normal tissues adjacent to the target tumour volume, radiotherapy is delivered using fractionated regimes whereby the total prescribed dose is given as a series of sequential smaller doses separated by specific time intervals. The impact of fractionation on out-of-field survival and DNA damage responses was determined in AGO-1522 primary human fibroblasts and MCF-7 breast tumour cells using uniform and modulated exposures delivered using a 225 kVp x-ray source. Responses to fractionated schedules (two equal fractions delivered with time intervals from 4 h to 48 h) were compared to those following acute exposures. Cell survival and DNA damage repair measurements indicate that cellular responses to fractionated non-uniform exposures differ from those seen in uniform exposures for the investigated cell lines. Specifically, there is a consistent lack of repair observed in the out-of-field populations during intervals between fractions, confirming the importance of cell signalling to out-of-field responses in a fractionated radiation schedule, and this needs to be confirmed for a wider range of cell lines and conditions.

Reliable survival analysis based on the Dirichlet Process

We present a robust Dirichlet process for estimating survival functions from samples with right-censored data. It adopts a prior near-ignorance approach to avoid almost any assumption about the distribution of the population lifetimes, as well as the need of eliciting an infinite dimensional parameter (in case of lack of prior information), as it happens with the usual Dirichlet process prior. We show how such model can be used to derive robust inferences from right-censored lifetime data. Robustness is due to the identification of the decisions that are prior-dependent, and can be interpreted as an analysis of sensitivity with respect to the hypothetical inclusion of fictitious new samples in the data. In particular, we derive a nonparametric estimator of the survival probability and a hypothesis test about the probability that the lifetime of an individual from one population is shorter than the lifetime of an individual from another. We evaluate these ideas on simulated data and on the Australian AIDS survival dataset. The methods are publicly available through an easy-to-use R package.

Survival of patients with skin melanoma in Europe increases further: Results of the EUROCARE-5 study

Background In Europe skin melanoma (SM) survival has increased over time. The aims were to evaluate recent trends and differences between countries and regions of Europe.

Methods Relative survival (RS) estimates and geographical comparisons were based on 241,485 patients aged 15 years and over with a diagnosis of invasive SM in Europe (2000-2007). Survival time trends during 1999-2007 were estimated using the period approach, for 213,101 patients. Age, gender, sub-sites and morphology subgroups were considered. 

Results In European patients, estimated 5-year RS was 83% (95% confidence interval, CI 83-84%). The highest values were found for patients resident in Northern (88%; 87-88%) and Central (88%; 87-88%) Europe, followed by Ireland and United Kingdom (UK) (86%; 85-86%) and Southern Europe (83%; 82-83%). The lowest survival was in Eastern Europe (74%; 74-75%). Within regions the intercountry absolute difference in percentage points of RS varied from 4% (North) to 34% (East). RS decreased markedly with patients' age and was higher in women than men. Differences according to SM morphology and skin sub-sites also emerged. Survival has slightly increased from 1999 to 2007, with a small improvement in Northern and the most pronounced improvement in Eastern Europe. 

Discussion SM survival is high and still increasing in European patients. The gap between Northern and Southern and especially Eastern European countries, although still present, diminished over time. Differences in stage distribution at diagnosis may explain most of the geographical differences. However, part of the improvement in survival may be attributed to overdiagnosis from early diagnosis practices.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone.

METHODS: Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544).

FINDINGS: 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc.

INTERPRETATION: Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

Failure-Free Survival and Radiotherapy in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer: Data From Patients in the Control Arm of the STAMPEDE Trial

Importance: The natural history of patients with newly diagnosed high-risk nonmetastatic (M0) prostate cancer receiving hormone therapy (HT) either alone or with standard-of-care radiotherapy (RT) is not well documented. Furthermore, no clinical trial has assessed the role of RT in patients with node-positive (N+) M0 disease. The STAMPEDE Trial includes such individuals, allowing an exploratory multivariate analysis of the impact of radical RT.

Objective: To describe survival and the impact on failure-free survival of RT by nodal involvement in these patients.

Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study using data collected for patients allocated to the control arm (standard-of-care only) of the STAMPEDE Trial between October 5, 2005, and May 1, 2014. Outcomes are presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models; survival estimates are reported at 2 and 5 years. Participants were high-risk, hormone-naive patients with newly diagnosed M0 prostate cancer starting long-term HT for the first time. Radiotherapy is encouraged in this group, but mandated for patients with node-negative (N0) M0 disease only since November 2011.

Exposures: Long-term HT either alone or with RT, as per local standard. Planned RT use was recorded at entry.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Failure-free survival (FFS) and overall survival.

Results: A total of 721 men with newly diagnosed M0 disease were included: median age at entry, 66 (interquartile range [IQR], 61-72) years, median (IQR) prostate-specific antigen level of 43 (18-88) ng/mL. There were 40 deaths (31 owing to prostate cancer) with 17 months' median follow-up. Two-year survival was 96% (95% CI, 93%-97%) and 2-year FFS, 77% (95% CI, 73%-81%). Median (IQR) FFS was 63 (26 to not reached) months. Time to FFS was worse in patients with N+ disease (HR, 2.02 [95% CI, 1.46-2.81]) than in those with N0 disease. Failure-free survival outcomes favored planned use of RT for patients with both N0M0 (HR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.18-0.61]) and N+M0 disease (HR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.29-0.79]).

Conclusions and Relevance: Survival for men entering the cohort with high-risk M0 disease was higher than anticipated at study inception. These nonrandomized data were consistent with previous trials that support routine use of RT with HT in patients with N0M0 disease. Additionally, the data suggest that the benefits of RT extend to men with N+M0 disease.

Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00268476; ISRCTN78818544.

Co-operative tensegrity-based formation control algorithm for a multi-aircraft system

This paper presents a tensegrity-based co-operative control algorithm for an aircraft formation. The 6 degrees-of-freedom model of the well-known Aerosonde unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), is integrated with the model of the tensegrity structure and a decentralised control scheme is proposed. The strategy is shown to be scalable for 2n number of UAVs and is able to maintain a firm geometry whilst allowing flexible shape transformations. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and stability of the proposed tensegrity-based formation control algorithm in 3D.