Modelling Damage in Thin-Walled Structures [Keynote speaker]

A high-fidelity composite damage model is presented and applied to predict low-velocity impact damage, compression after impact (CAI) strength and crushing of thin-walled composite structures. The simulated results correlated well with experimental testing in terms of overall force-displacement response, damage morphologies and energy dissipation. The predictive power of this model makes it suitable for use as part of a virtual testing methodology, reducing the reliance on physical testing.  

Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

A hierarchical physical model-based approach to predictive control of a thermal power plant for efficient plant-wide disturbance rejection

Extending the work presented in Prasad et al. (IEEE Proceedings on Control Theory and Applications, 147, 523-37, 2000), this paper reports a hierarchical nonlinear physical model-based control strategy to account for the problems arising due to complex dynamics of drum level and governor valve, and demonstrates its effectiveness in plant-wide disturbance handling. The strategy incorporates a two-level control structure consisting of lower-level conventional PI regulators and a higher-level nonlinear physical model predictive controller (NPMPC) for mainly set-point manoeuvring. The lower-level PI loops help stabilise the unstable drum-boiler dynamics and allow faster governor valve action for power and grid-frequency regulation. The higher-level NPMPC provides an optimal load demand (or set-point) transition by effective handling of plant-wide interactions and system disturbances. The strategy has been tested in a simulation of a 200-MW oil-fired power plant at Ballylumford in Northern Ireland. A novel approach is devized to test the disturbance rejection capability in severe operating conditions. Low frequency disturbances were created by making random changes in radiation heat flow on the boiler-side, while condenser vacuum was fluctuating in a random fashion on the turbine side. In order to simulate high-frequency disturbances, pulse-type load disturbances were made to strike at instants which are not an integral multiple of the NPMPC sampling period. Impressive results have been obtained during both types of system disturbances and extremely high rates of load changes, right across the operating range, These results compared favourably with those from a conventional state-space generalized predictive control (GPC) method designed under similar conditions.

Plant-wide predictive control for a thermal power plant based on a physical plant model

A constrained non-linear, physical model-based, predictive control (NPMPC) strategy is developed for improved plant-wide control of a thermal power plant. The strategy makes use of successive linearisation and recursive state estimation using extended Kalman filtering to obtain a linear state-space model. The linear model and a quadratic programming routine are used to design a constrained long-range predictive controller One special feature is the careful selection of a specific set of plant model parameters for online estimation, to account for time-varying system characteristics resulting from major system disturbances and ageing. These parameters act as nonstationary stochastic states and help to provide sufficient degrees-of-freedom to obtain unbiased estimates of controlled outputs. A 14th order non-linear plant model, simulating the dominant characteristics of a 200 MW oil-fired pou er plant has been used to test the NPMPC algorithm. The control strategy gives impressive simulation results, during large system disturbances and extremely high rate of load changes, right across the operating range. These results compare favourably to those obtained with the state-space GPC method designed under similar conditions.

Predictive position and force control for shape memory alloy cylinders

In this paper, a linear lightweight electric cylinder constructed using shape memory alloy (SMA) is proposed. Spring SMA is used as the actuator to control the position and force of the cylinder rod. The model predictive control algorithm is investigated to compensate SMA hysteresis phenomenon and control the cylinder. In the predictive algorithm, the future output of the cylinder is computed based on the cylinder model, and the control signal is computed to minimize the error and power criterion. The cylinder model parameters are estimated by an online identification algorithm. Experimental results show that the SMA cylinder is able to precisely control position and force by using the predictive control strategy though the hysteresis effect existing in the actuator. The performance of the proposed controller is compared with that of a conventional PID controller

Efficient predictive demand response using laguerre functions

Predictive Demand Response (DR) algorithms allow schedulable loads in power systems to be shifted to off-peak times. However, the size of the optimisation problems associated with predictive DR can grow very large and so efficient implementations of algorithms are desirable. In this paper Laguerre functions are used to significantly reduce the size of the optimisation needed to implement predictive DR, thus significantly increasing the efficiency of the implementation. © 2013 IEEE.

Feasibility Assessment of Plug and Play Model Predictive Control for use in DC Grids

Distributed control techniques can allow Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to coordinate their responses via TSO-TSO communication, providing a level of control that lies between that of centralised control and communication free decentralised control of interconnected power systems. Recently the Plug and Play Model Predictive Control (PnPMPC) toolbox has been developed in order to allow practitioners to design distributed controllers based on tube-MPC techniques. In this paper, some initial results using the PnPMPC toolbox for the design of distributed controllers to enhance AGC in AC areas connected to Multi-Terminal HVDC (MTDC) grids, are illustrated, in order to evaluate the feasibility of applying PnPMPC for this purpose.

An Adaptive Predictive Control Strategy for RMPPT under Partially Shaded Conditions

As one of key technologies in photovoltaic converter control, Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) methods can keep the power conversion efficiency as high as nearly 99% under the uniform solar irradiance condition. However, these methods may fail when shading conditions occur and the power loss can over as much as 70% due to the multiple maxima in curve in shading conditions v.s. single maximum point in uniformly solar irradiance. In this paper, a Real Maximum Power Point Tracking (RMPPT) strategy under Partially Shaded Conditions (PSCs) is introduced to deal with this kind of problems. An optimization problem, based on a predictive model which will change adaptively with environment, is developed to tracking the global maxima and corresponding adaptive control strategy is presented. No additional circuits are required to obtain the environment uncertainties. Finally, simulations show the effectiveness of proposed method.