A strategic review of electricity systems models

Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.

Intelligent demand response electric water heating to integrate wind power in Ireland

Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is that supply instantaneously meets demand and that robust operating standards are maintained to ensure a consistent supply of high quality electricity to end-users. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management (DSM) with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating (EWH) has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to benefit end-users financially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper, a continuous Direct Load Control (DLC) EWH algorithm is applied in a liberalized market environment using actual historical electricity system and market data to examine the potential energy savings, cost reductions and electricity system operational improvements.

Integrating wind power using intelligent electric water heating

Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is to instantaneously meet demand, to operate to standards and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to bene?t end-users ?nancially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper a number of continuous direct load control demand response based electric water heating algorithms are modelled to test the effectiveness of wholesale electricity market signals to study the system bene?ts. The results are compared and contrasted to determine which control algorithm showed the best potential for energy savings, system marginal price savings and wind integration.

The List_Tree - an innovative solution to customer portfolio representation

The scale of BT's operations necessitates the use of very large scale computing systems, and the storage and management of large volumes of data. Customer product portfolios are an important form of data which can be difficult to store in a space efficient way. The difficulties arise from the inherently structured form of product portfolios, and the fact that they change over time as customers add or remove products. This paper introduces a new data-modelling abstraction called the List_Tree. It has been designed specifically to support the efficient storage and manipulation of customer product portfolios, but may also prove useful in other applications with similar general requirements.

Predicting the past: Understanding the causes of bank distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s

Why do some banks fail in financial crises while others survive? This article answers this question by analysing the effect of the Dutch financial crisis of the 1920s on 142 banks, of which 33 failed. We find that choices of balance sheet composition and product market strategy made in the lead-up to the crisis had a significant impact on banks’ subsequent chances of experiencing distress. We document that high-risk banks – those operating highly-leveraged portfolios and attracting large quantities of deposits – were more likely to fail. Branching and international activities also increased banks’ default probabilities. We measure the effects of board interlocks, which have been characterized in the extant literature as contributing to the Dutch crisis. We find that boards mattered: failing banks had smaller boards, shared directors with smaller and very profitable banks and had a lower concentration of interlocking directorates in non-financial firms.

Momentum Trading in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Energy Stocks

This paper investigates whether the momentum effect exists in the NYSE energy sector. Momentum is defined as the strategy that buys (sells) these stocks that are best (worst) performers, over a pre-specified past period of time (the 'look-back' period), by constructing equally weighted portfolios. Different momentum strategies are obtained by changing the number of stocks included in these portfolios, as well as the look-back period. Next, their performance is compared against two benchmarks: the equally weighted portfolio consisting of most stocks in the NYSE energy index and the market portfolio, and the S&P500 index. The results indicate that the momentum effect is strongly present in the energy sector, and leads to highly profitable portfolios, improving the risk-reward measures and easily outperforming both benchmarks.

M level Inquiry Across Disciplinary Boundaries: Using Reflective Sketchbooks

Debates unfolding around the recent development of M Level programmes for teacher education are not unfamiliar to those being addressed in other professional disciplines such as business. A strong theme in our analysis is that reflective practitioners could be provided with a wider range of tools and methods to support them in their reflection. Considerable energies have been expended on e portfolios, but our experience of use of paper based reflective
sketchbooks suggests that they may have some distinct advantages over text-dominated electronic media. In fact such sketchbooks challenge typed text as the dominant route to learning and communication (Gilbert 1998), (New, 2005), (Hickman, 2007). Professionals in teacher education are currently exploring ways in which M level can be conceived in terms of professional learning. This is also important terrain in other professions. For example, best practice in business management involves constant innovation so that students do not experience a split between the research context of the business faculty and the experience of operating in the business situation. This is paralleled in education by the concern that trainees do not experience a split between the research or scholarly informed approach of university tutors, and the experience of practical teaching in school. Our research question is concerned with how a consciously developed reflective sketchbook method can generate levels of critical thought that are both postgraduate and professionally valued in the workplace. We are also interested in the contribution this form of enquiry at M Level can make in terms of life long learning.

How should teaching on whole person medicine, including spiritual issues, be delivered in the undergraduate medical curriculum in the United Kingdom?

Background

Although the General Medical Council recommends that United Kingdom medical students are taught ‘whole person medicine’, spiritual care is variably recognised within the curriculum. Data on teaching delivery and attainment of learning outcomes is lacking. This study ascertained views of Faculty and students about spiritual care and how to teach and assess competence in delivering such care.

A questionnaire comprising 28 questions exploring attitudes to whole person medicine, spirituality and illness, and training of healthcare staff in providing spiritual care was designed using a five-point Likert scale. Free text comments were studied by thematic analysis. The questionnaire was distributed to 1300 students and 106 Faculty at Queen’s University Belfast Medical School.

351 responses (54 staff, 287 students; 25 %) were obtained. >90 % agreed that whole person medicine included physical, psychological and social components; 60 % supported inclusion of a spiritual component within the definition. Most supported availability of spiritual interventions for patients, including access to chaplains (71 %), counsellors (62 %), or members of the patient’s faith community (59 %). 90 % felt that personal faith/spirituality was important to some patients and 60 % agreed that this influenced health. However 80 % felt that doctors should never/rarely share their own spiritual beliefs with patients and 67 % felt they should only do so when specifically invited. Most supported including training on provision of spiritual care within the curriculum; 40-50 % felt this should be optional and 40 % mandatory. Small group teaching was the favoured delivery method. 64 % felt that teaching should not be assessed, but among assessment methods, reflective portfolios were most favoured (30 %). Students tended to hold more polarised viewpoints but generally were more favourably disposed towards spiritual care than Faculty. Respecting patients’ values and beliefs and the need for guidance in provision of spiritual care were identified in the free-text comments.

Students and Faculty generally recognise a spiritual dimension to health and support provision of spiritual care to appropriate patients. There is lack of consensus whether this should be delivered by doctors or left to others. Spiritual issues impacting patient management should be included in the curriculum; agreement is lacking about how to deliver and assess.

Scaling Up Market Anomalies

This paper implements momentum among a host of market anomalies. Our investment universe consists of the 15 top (long-leg) and 15 bottom (short-leg) anomaly portfolios. The proposed active strategy buys (sells short) a subset of the top (bottom) anomaly portfolios based on past one-month return. The evidence shows statistically strong and economically meaningful persistence in anomaly payoffs. Our strategy consistently outperforms a naive benchmark that equal weights anomalies and yields an abnormal monthly return ranging between 1.27% and 1.47%. The persistence is robust to the post-2000 period, and various other considerations, and is stronger following episodes of high investor sentiment.

Identifying the relative importance of stock characteristics

There is no consensus in the literature as to which stock characteristic best explains returns. In this study, we employ a novel econometric approach better suited than the traditional characteristic sorting method to answer this question for the UK market. We evaluate the relative explanatory power of market, size, momentum, volatility, liquidity and book-to-market factors in a semiparametric characteristic-based factor model which does not require constructing characteristic portfolios. We find that momentum is the most important factor and liquidity is the least important based on their relative contribution to the fit of the model and the proportion of sample months for which factor returns are significant. Overall, this study provides strong evidence to support that the momentum characteristic can best explain stock returns in the UK market. The econometric approach employed in this study is a novel way to assess relevant investment risk in international financial markets outside U.S. Moreover, multinational institutions and investors can use this approach to identify regional factors in order to diversify their portfolios.