Work-related training and the probability of transitioning from non-permanent to permanent employment

It is widely believed that work-related training increases a worker’s probability of moving up the job-quality ladder. This is usually couched in terms of effects on wages, but it has also been argued that training increases the probability of moving from non-permanent forms of employment to more permanent employment. This hypothesis is tested using nationally representative panel data for Australia, a country where the incidence of non-permanent employment, and especially casual employment, is high by international standards. While a positive association between participation in work-related training and the subsequent probability of moving from either casual or fixed-term contract employment to permanent employment is observed among men, this is shown to be driven not by a causal impact of training on transitions but by differences between those who do and do not receive training; i.e., selection bias.

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.

Design and Flux-Weakening Control of an Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor for Electric Vehicles

Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) provide a competitive technology for EV traction drives owing to their high power density and high efficiency. In this paper, three types of interior PMSMs with different PM arrangements are modeled by the finite element method (FEM). For a given amount of permanent magnet materials, the V-shape interior PMSM is found better than the U-shape and the conventional rotor topologies for EV traction drives. Then the V-shape interior PMSM is further analyzed with the effects of stator slot opening and the permanent magnet pole chamfering on cogging torque and output torque performance. A vector-controlled flux-weakening method is developed and simulated in Matlab to expand the motor speed range for EV drive system. The results show good dynamic and steady-state performance with a capability of expanding speed up to four times of the rated. A prototype of the V-shape interior PMSM is also manufactured and tested to validate the numerical models built by the FEM.

Nonlinear response of permanent dipoles in a uniaxial potential to alternating fields

It is shown how the existing theory of the dynamic Kerr effect and nonlinear dielectric relaxation based on the noninertial Brownian rotation of noninteracting rigid dipolar particles may be generalized to take into account interparticle interactions using the Maier-Saupe mean field potential. The results (available in simple closed form) suggest that the frequency dependent nonlinear response provides a method of measuring the Kramers escape rate (or in the analogous problem of magnetic relaxation of fine single domain ferromagnetic particles, the superparamagnetic relaxation time).

Nonharmonic transverse vibration of the H-bonded molecules and the THz spectra in ice and water

A nonlinear equation of motion is found for the dimer comprising two charged H2O molecules. The THz dielectric response to nonharmonic vibration of a nonrigid dipole, forming the hydrogen bond (HB), is found in the direction transverse to this bond. An explicit expression is derived for the autocorrelator that governs the spectrum generated by transverse vibration (TV) of such a dipole. This expression is obtained by analytical solution of the truncated set of recurrence equations. The far infrared (FIR) spectra of ice at the temperature - 7 degrees C are calculated. The wideband, in the wavenumber (frequency) v range 0... 100.0 cm(-1), spectra are obtained for liquid water at room temperature and for supercooled water at -5.6 degrees C. All spectra are represented in terms of the complex permittivity epsilon(v) and the absorption coefficient alpha(v). The obtained analytical formula for epsilon comprises the term epsilon(perpendicular to) pertinent to the studied TV mechanism with three additional terms Delta epsilon(q), Delta epsilon(mu), and epsilon(or) arising, respectively, from: elastic harmonic vibration of charged molecules along the H-bond; elastic reorientation of HB permanent dipoles; and rather free libration of permanent dipoles in 'defects' of water/ice structure. The suggested TV-dielectric relaxation mechanism allows us: (a) to remove the THz 'deficit' of loss epsilon" inherent in previous theoretical studies; (b) to explain the THz loss and absorption spectra in supercooled (SC) water; and (c) to describe, in agreement with the experiment, the low- and high-frequency tails of the two bands of ice H2O located in the range 10...300 cm(-1). Specific THz dielectric properties of SC water are ascribed to association of water molecules, revealed in our study by transverse vibration of HB charged molecules. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Neutral and Charged 1-Butyl-3-methylimidazolium Triflate Clusters: Equilibrium Concentration in the Vapor Phase and Thermal Properties of Nanometric Droplets

Ground state energy, structure, and harmonic vibrational modes of 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium triflate ([bmim][Tf]) clusters have been computed using an all-atom empirical potential model. Neutral and charged species have been considered up to a size (30 [bmim][Tf] pairs) well into the nanometric range. Free energy computations and thermodynamic modeling have been used to predict the equilibrium composition of the vapor phase as a function of temperature and density. The results point to a nonnegligible concentration of very small charged species at pressures (P ~ 0.01 Pa) and temperatures (T 600 K) at the boundary of the stability range of [bmim][Tf]. Thermal properties of nanometric neutral droplets have been investigated in the 0 T 700 K range. A near-continuous transition between a liquidlike phase at high T and a solidlike phase at low T takes place at T ~ 190 K in close correspondence with the bulk glass point Tg ~ 200 K. Solidification is accompanied by a transition in the dielectric properties of the droplet, giving rise to a small permanent dipole embedded into the solid cluster. The simulation results highlight the molecular precursors of several macroscopic properties and phenomena and point to the close competition of Coulomb and dispersion forces as their common origin.

Galactic Edge Clouds I. Molecular Line Observations and Chemical Modelling of Edge Cloud 2

Edge Cloud 2 (EC2) is a molecular cloud, about 35 pc in size, with one of the largest galactocentric distances known to exist in the Milky Way. We present observations of a peak CO emission region in the cloud and use these to determine its physical characteristics. We calculate a gas temperature of 20 K and a density of n(H2)~10^4 cm-3. Based on our CO maps, we estimate the mass of EC2 at around 10^4 Msolar and continuum observations suggest a dust-to-gas mass ratio as low as 0.001. Chemical models have been developed to reproduce the abundances in EC2, and they indicate that heavy element abundances may be reduced by a factor of 5 relative to the solar neighborhood (similar to dwarf irregular galaxies and damped Lya systems), very low extinction (A_V <4 mag) due to a very low dust-to-gas mass ratio, an enhanced cosmic-ray ionization rate, and a higher UV field compared to local interstellar values. The reduced abundances may be attributed to the low level of star formation in this region and are probably also related to the continuing infall of primordial (or low-metallicity) halo gas since the Milky Way formed. Finally, we note that shocks from the old supernova remnant GSH 138-01-94 may have determined the morphology and dynamics of EC2.

Observation of Collisionless Shocks in Laser-Plasma Experiments

The propagation in a rarefied plasma (n(e)less than or similar to 10(15) cm(-3)) of collisionless shock waves and ion-acoustic solitons, excited following the interaction of a long (tau(L)similar to 470 ps) and intense (I similar to 10(15) W cm(-2)) laser pulse with solid targets, has been investigated via proton probing techniques. The shocks' structures and related electric field distributions were reconstructed with high spatial and temporal resolution. The experimental results were interpreted within the framework of the nonlinear wave description based on the Korteweg-de Vries-Burgers equation.

Postglacial vegetation and climate dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, central coastal British Columbia, Canada: palynological evidence from Tiny Lake.

A pollen-based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740?±?70 14C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860?±?50 14C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso- to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi-permanent air mass.