Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast Retinal Vessel Detection and Measurement Using Wavelets and Edge Location Refinement

The relationship between changes in retinal vessel morphology and the onset and progression of diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) has been the subject of several large scale clinical studies. However, the difficulty of quantifying changes in retinal vessels in a sufficiently fast, accurate and repeatable manner has restricted the application of the insights gleaned from these studies to clinical practice. This paper presents a novel algorithm for the efficient detection and measurement of retinal vessels, which is general enough that it can be applied to both low and high resolution fundus photographs and fluorescein angiograms upon the adjustment of only a few intuitive parameters. Firstly, we describe the simple vessel segmentation strategy, formulated in the language of wavelets, that is used for fast vessel detection. When validated using a publicly available database of retinal images, this segmentation achieves a true positive rate of 70.27%, false positive rate of 2.83%, and accuracy score of 0.9371. Vessel edges are then more precisely localised using image profiles computed perpendicularly across a spline fit of each detected vessel centreline, so that both local and global changes in vessel diameter can be readily quantified. Using a second image database, we show that the diameters output by our algorithm display good agreement with the manual measurements made by three independent observers. We conclude that the improved speed and generality offered by our algorithm are achieved without sacrificing accuracy. The algorithm is implemented in MATLAB along with a graphical user interface, and we have made the source code freely available. 

Is everybody happy? The politics and measurement of national wellbeing

This article explores the political and intellectual influences behind the growth of interest in happiness and the emergence of the new 'science of happiness'. It offers a critique of the use of subjective wellbeing indicators within indexes of social and economic progress, and argues that the proposed United Kingdom's National Well-being Index is over-reliant on subjective measures. We conclude by arguing that the mainstreaming of happiness indicators reflects and supports the emergence of 'behavioural social policy'.

Surface treatments for concrete: assessment methods and reported performance

Several products for surface treatment are available on the market to enhance durability characteristics of concrete. For each of these materials a certain level of protection is claimed. However, there is no commonly accepted procedure to assess the effectiveness of these treatments. The inherent generic properties may be of use to the manufacturers and those responsible for specifications, however, practising engineers are interested in knowing how they improve the performance of their structures. Thus in this review an attempt is made to assess the engineering aspects of the various surface treatments so that a procedure for their selection can be proposed. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Lid.

Sonochemical synthesis and measurement of optical properties of zinc sulfide quantum dots

A facile sonochemical method has been developed to prepare very small zinc sulfide nanoparticles (ZnS NPs) of extremely small size about 1. nm in diameter using a set of ionic liquids based on the bis (trifluoromethylsulfonyl) imide anion and different cations of 1-alkyl-3-methyl-imidazolium. The structural features and optical properties of the NPs were determined in depth with X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), high-resolution TEM (HRTEM), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering (DLS) analysis, and UV-vis absorption spectroscopy. The energy band gap measurements of ZnS NPs were calculated by UV-vis absorption spectroscopy. One of the interesting features of the present work is that the wide band gap semiconductor ZnS nanocrystals were prepared which are used in the fabrication of photonic devices.

Distinguished algebraic semantics for t-norm based fuzzy logics:Methods and algebraic equivalencies

This paper is a contribution to Mathematical fuzzy logic, in particular to the algebraic study of t-norm based fuzzy logics. In the general framework of propositional core and ?-core fuzzy logics we consider three properties of completeness with respect to any semantics of linearly ordered algebras. Useful algebraic characterizations of these completeness properties are obtained and their relations are studied. Moreover, we concentrate on five kinds of distinguished semantics for these logics-namely the class of algebras defined over the real unit interval, the rational unit interval, the hyperreals (all ultrapowers of the real unit interval), the strict hyperreals (only ultrapowers giving a proper extension of the real unit interval) and finite chains, respectively-and we survey the known completeness methods and results for prominent logics. We also obtain new interesting relations between the real, rational and (strict) hyperreal semantics, and good characterizations for the completeness with respect to the semantics of finite chains. Finally, all completeness properties and distinguished semantics are also considered for the first-order versions of the logics where a number of new results are proved. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Irish study on high-density schizophrenia families:field methods and power to detect linkage

Large samples of multiplex pedigrees will probably be needed to detect susceptibility loci for schizophrenia by linkage analysis. Standardized ascertainment of such pedigrees from culturally and ethnically homogeneous populations may improve the probability of detection and replication of linkage. The Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) was formed from standardized ascertainment of multiplex schizophrenia families in 39 psychiatric facilities covering over 90% of the population in Ireland and Northern Ireland. We here describe a phenotypic sample and a subset thereof, the linkage sample. Individuals were included in the phenotypic sample if adequate diagnostic information, based on personal interview and/or hospital record, was available. Only individuals with available DNA were included in the linkage sample. Inclusion of a pedigree into the phenotypic sample required at least two first, second, or third degree relatives with non-affective psychosis (NAP), one whom had schizophrenia (S) or poor-outcome schizo-affective disorder (PO-SAD). Entry into the linkage sample required DNA samples on at least two individuals with NAP, of whom at least one had S or PO-SAD. Affection was defined by narrow, intermediate, and broad criteria. The phenotypic sample contained 277 pedigrees and 1,770 individuals and the linkage sample 265 pedigrees and 1,408 individuals. Using the intermediate definition of affection, the phenotypic sample contained 837 affected individuals and 526 affected sibling pairs. Parallel figures for the linkage sample were 700 and 420. Individuals with schizophrenia from these multiplex pedigrees resembled epidemiologically sampled cases with respect to age at onset, gender distribution, and most clinical symptoms, although they were more thought-disordered and had a poorer outcome. Power analyses based on the model of linkage heterogeneity indicated that the ISHDSF should be able to detect a major locus that influences susceptibility to schizophrenia in as few as 20% of families. Compared to first-degree relatives of epidemiologically sampled schizophrenic probands, first-degree relatives of schizophrenic members from the ISHDSF had a similar risk for schizotypal personality disorder, affective illness, alcoholism, and anxiety disorder. With sufficient resources, large-scale ascertainment of multiplex schizophrenia pedigrees is feasible, especially in countries with catchmented psychiatric care and stable populations. Although somewhat more severely ill, schizophrenic members of such pedigrees appear to clinically resemble typical schizophrenic patients. Our ascertainment process for multiplex schizophrenia families did not select for excess familial risk for affective illness or alcoholism. With its large sample ascertained in a standardized manner from a relatively homogeneous population, the ISHDSF provides considerable power to detect susceptibility loci for schizophrenia.

Automated detection and measurement of isolated retinal arterioles by a combination of edge enhancement and cost analysis

Pressure myography studies have played a crucial role in our understanding of vascular physiology and pathophysiology. Such studies depend upon the reliable measurement of changes in the diameter of isolated vessel segments over time. Although several software packages are available to carry out such measurements on small arteries and veins, no such software exists to study smaller vessels (<50 µm in diameter). We provide here a new, freely available open-source algorithm, MyoTracker, to measure and track changes in the diameter of small isolated retinal arterioles. The program has been developed as an ImageJ plug-in and uses a combination of cost analysis and edge enhancement to detect the vessel walls. In tests performed on a dataset of 102 images, automatic measurements were found to be comparable to those of manual ones. The program was also able to track both fast and slow constrictions and dilations during intraluminal pressure changes and following application of several drugs. Variability in automated measurements during analysis of videos and processing times were also investigated and are reported. MyoTracker is a new software to assist during pressure myography experiments on small isolated retinal arterioles. It provides fast and accurate measurements with low levels of noise and works with both individual images and videos. Although the program was developed to work with small arterioles, it is also capable of tracking the walls of other types of microvessels, including venules and capillaries. It also works well with larger arteries, and therefore may provide an alternative to other packages developed for larger vessels when its features are considered advantageous.

Online Thévenin Equivalent Determination Considering System Side Changes and Measurement Errors

This paper presents a new method for online determination of the Thèvenin equivalent parameters of a power system at a given node using the local PMU measurements at that node. The method takes into account the measurement errors and the changes in the system side. An analysis of the effects of changes in system side is carried out on a simple two-bus system to gain an insight of the effect of system side changes on the estimated Thévenin equivalent parameters. The proposed method uses voltage and current magnitudes as well as active and reactive powers; thus avoiding the effect of phase angle drift of the PMU and the need to synchronize measurements at different instances to the same reference. Applying the method to the IEEE 30-bus test system has shown its ability to correctly determine the Thévenin equivalent even in the presence of measurement errors and/or system side changes.

Informing pre-registration nurse education: a proposal outline on the value, methods and ethical considerations of involving children in doctoral research

As pre-registration nurse education programmes evolve within the United Kingdom, it is imperative to involve patient/client groups within the research process, as the outcome may invoke a change in the care delivery of the registered nurse (RN). This paper focuses upon children and how children might hypothetically contribute to informing a generic nursing programme in their capacity as a rights holder and expert in their own lives. Even though their contribution and value has been debated around their capacity as research advisor, research participant and co researcher, this paper explores how the child's view of their experience of hospital and of the good nurse could be best captured. Research is a powerful vehicle that can enable their voice to equally inform UK nurse educators and policy makers so that the child's health care needs are effectively met in hospital by RN's who complete a generic programme.

Econometric Methods and their Applications in Finance, Macro and Related Fields

The volume aims at providing an outlet for some of the best papers presented at the 15th Annual Conference of the African Econometric Society, which is one of the “chapters” of the International Econometric Society. Many of these papers represent the state of the art in financial econometrics and applied econometric modeling, and some also provide useful simulations that shed light on the models' ability to generate meaningful scenarios for forecasting and policy analysis.